Perhaps you've heard that Major League Baseball is going through an ace shortage. And it's true. It's a thing that is happening.

There are eight active Cy Young Award winners on the injured list, which also houses the likes of Spencer Strider, Justin Steele, Shane McClanahan, Framber Valdez and Kodai Senga. Shohei Ohtani is healthy enough to hit, but not to pitch.

Still, let's at least try to be optimistic. Namely by taking on the outlook that all those ace absences are actually ace openings just waiting to be filled.

There are eight 20-something pitchers who are trending in that direction in 2024. None is an established ace yet, but give it time. All have humongous upside that they're just beginning to tap into.

Because each is over 30 and thus hypothetically short on long-term upside, don't expect to see Tyler Glasnow, Ronel Blanco, or Shōta Imanaga here. And while Logan Webb, Dylan Cease, Freddy Peralta and Logan Gilbert are still in their 20s, they're too established to fit the bill here.

As for the guys who did make the cut, let's count down to the one who's furthest along as a budding ace. But first, some honorable mentions.

Honorable Mentions

RHP Kutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox

Age: 28

2024 Stats: 4 GS, 21.1 IP, 9 H (0 HR), 24 K, 8 BB, 0.42 ERA

There's a "too good to be true" vibe hanging over Crawford, but his ERA isn't the only datapoint that highlights how hard he's been to hit so far. He ranks second among pitchers with at least 15 innings with a .122 batting average.

LHP MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals

Age: 25

2024 Stats: 3 GS, 16.0 IP, 14 H (1 HR), 23 K, 5 BB

Gore is among MLB's biggest gainers in both fastball velocity and whiff rate, so perhaps he's finally ready to live up to his former billing as an elite pitching prospect. For now, though, too much revolves around his 11-strikeout performance against the punchless A's on April 13.

RHP Jordan Hicks, San Francisco Giants

Age: 27

2024 Stats: 4 GS, 23.0 IP, 15 H (1 HR), 18 K, 6 BB, 1.57 ERA

Maybe the Giants knew what they were doing when they signed Hicks as a starter? It sure seems that way. Even if his strikeout rate is a little low for a frontline starter, his walk rate is way down and he's getting plenty of ground balls.

RHP Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Age: 27

2024 Stats: 3 GS, 17.1 IP, 14 H (2 HR), 24 K, 2 BB, 2.60 ERA

Ryan has 12 times as many strikeouts as walks, which is no way, shape or form a bad way to go through life. But as excellent as his fastball has been, the jury remains out on whether he has a reliable secondary pitch.

LHP Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies

Age: 28

2024 Stats: 4 GS, 26.0 IP, 16 H (2 HR), 27 K, 4 BB, 1.00 ERA

Suárez showed promise in spurts between 2021 and 2023, but not like this. His walk rate, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate have all taken turns for the better, so all he really has to do now is withstand the rigors of the season.

8. RHP Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Age: 21

2024 Stats (AAA): 3 GS, 9.1 IP, 4 H (0 HR), 19 K, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA

Paul Skenes is, of course, not yet in the major leagues. But as evidence that he probably should be, I submit [dramatically points upward] those numbers.

Those 19 strikeouts are out of 33 batters faced, amounting to a 57.6 strikeout percentage. Small sample size? Minor league hitters? Yes and yes, but that kind of punchout frequency would make even 2014 Aroldis Chapman blush.

At 6'6", 235 pounds, Skenes certainly resembles a power pitcher. And rumors that he also throws like one are not exaggerated. He was lighting up the radar gun in spring training, and he's currently sitting at 100.1 mph in the minors. Yes, sitting.

He has a 40.0 percent whiff rate just on his four-seamer, yet it's his slider that figures to be his primary swing-and-miss weapon. Per MLB.com, it had a ridiculous 63 percent whiff rate in the minors in 2023.

Such things make it that much clearer why the Pirates chose Skenes with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. When he finally does get the call to The Show for his debut, there ought to be 2010 Stephen Strasburg levels of hype.

7. RHP Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

Age: 22

2024 Stats: 4 GS, 23.0 IP, 16 H (4 HR), 32 K, 2 BB, 3.13 ERA

Though the Pirates are still waiting on Skenes, they might already have the nastiest pitcher in the majors in their midst.

Rookie Jared Jones' ERA isn't otherworldly good, yet his strikeout-to-walk ratio obviously catches the eye. And between the sheer quality of his stuff and the precision of his location, he's actually rating as the most complete pitcher of 2024.

His fastball has sat at 97.2 mph and maxed out at 100 mph, while his slider has racked up a nasty 48.4 whiff percentage. As noted by MLB.com's Sarah Langs, his 73 swings and misses are the most for a pitcher in his first four MLB starts since at least 2008.

The knock on Jones coming into 2024 was that he was more of a control artist than a command artist, and that still holds. He's thrown strikes, but the homers he's allowed mostly illustrate him learning the hard way that some strikes are more hittable than others.

That Jones has nonetheless made such a strong impression should lead to a scary thought for hitters: What if he makes the adjustment and starts throwing good strikes?

6. LHP Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox

Age: 24

2024 Stats: 4 GS, 22.2 IP, 15 H (2 HR), 31 K, 4 BB, 3.57 ERA

Garrett Crochet is barely two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and his four starts this year are the only four starts of his career.

But can you really blame me for overreacting?

The fastball is the headline-grabber for Crochet. He's been sitting at 96.5 mph and has topped out at 100 mph, with more than half of his punchouts coming by way of the heater.

Yet the 6'6", 245-pounder's fastball is also but one of three pitches with a whiff rate over 30 percent right now. His nastiest offering is actually his slider, which has more horizontal break than any other slider thrown by any other lefty.

The big question is naturally how many innings Crochet will have in him this year. On stuff alone, though, he resembles what the White Sox had in Carlos Rodón's best days on the South Side.

5. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

Age: 25

2024 Stats: 4 GS, 16.0 IP, 13 H (2 HR), 21 K, 4 BB, 4.50 ERA

That's not the most impressive stat line, but let's do Yoshinobu Yamamoto the kindness of splitting things up:

• First Start: 1.0 IP, 5 ER
• Last 3 Starts: 15.0 IP, 3 ER

One of these things is not like the other, and that's encouraging for a Dodgers franchise that has $325 million (well, technically $375 million) invested in Yamamoto.

Other encouraging signs include how the 5'10", 176-pound righty's stuff and command both have above-average ratings by way of Stuff+ and Location+. His curveball and splitter have proved to be especially effective, combining to hold hitters to a .156 average with 16 of his strikeouts. The former has elite characteristics, including next-level downward movement.

It's Yamamoto's fastball that's held him back, but that's more of a location issue than a quality one. There's nothing wrong with him sitting at 95.4 mph with it. There is something wrong with him too often straying into the fat part of the zone with it.

That should prove fixable, though. And when it does, the guy who had a sub-2.00 ERA in Japan will finally be seen in all his glory.

4. LHP Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

Age: 24

2024 Stats: 3 GS, 17.1 IP, 8 H (0 HR), 26 K, 6 BB, 1.04 ERA

Reid Detmers threw a no-hitter in only his 11th major league start in 2022, but it's only now that he's really showing what he can do as the ace of the Angels' rotation.

Starting with when the lefty flirted with yet another no-no on Aug. 16, 2023, he now has a 2.01 ERA over his last 10 starts. And his first three outings of this season have been a veritable swing-and-miss fest.

His 40.6 strikeout percentage leads all qualified pitchers. He also has the lowest overall contact rate and by far the lowest contact rate within the strike zone at 65.8 percent.

Getting to face a whiff-happy Boston Red Sox offense twice has helped, but he is also changing things up. Figuratively, in that he's reworked his fastball to be more of a weapon up in the zone. But also literally, in that his actual changeup is the weapon he had been lacking against righties.

Detmers is also a welcome exception to a notable rule in MLB right now. Whereas starters are generally working fewer and fewer innings, his workload is only going up.

3. LHP Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals

Age: 26

2024 Stats: 4 GS, 23.1 IP, 21 H (1 HR), 29 K, 7 BB, 1.93 ERA

When the Royals acquired Cole Ragans from the Texas Rangers last July, he was a two-time Tommy John survivor with nary a footprint in the majors.

To give you an idea of how things have gone since then, one evaluator told ESPN's Jeff Passan in March that Ragans is "The left-handed [Jacob] deGrom."

That should come off as hyperbolic, but we are talking about a guy with a 2.46 ERA and a 30.7 strikeout percentage in 16 starts as a Royal. He also throws gas. So far in 2024, he's averaging 96.3 mph and peaking at 100 mph with his heater.

Yet to merely focus on his fastball is to do him a disservice. He's a proper five-pitch pitcher whose changeup and knuckle-curveball have whiff rates north of 50 percent for the young season. All told, his Stuff+ score is way up even from last season.

Ragans, who's well-built at 6'4", 190 pounds, has also been giving the Royals just south of 100 pitches per start. As long as his elbow holds, his acehood should proceed to go from budding to blossoming.

2. RHP Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles

Age: 24

2024 Stats: 4 GS, 24.0 IP, 20 H (3 HR), 27 K, 8 BB, 2.63 ERA

Like Skenes is now, Grayson Rodriguez was an ace-in-waiting as a prospect. He ranked first among pitching prospects for MLB.com in 2022, and then second in 2023.

The hype didn't pan out at first, but that's beginning to feel like forever ago. Ever since he resurfaced from the minors on July 17, 2023, Rodriguez has made 17 starts and pitched to a 2.59 ERA.

The 6'5", 230-pounder's Stuff+ score in this span is second only to teammate Corbin Burnes. And that should surprise nobody.

He has touched 99 mph with his fastball and has been better at getting batters to offer and miss at both his changeup and his curveball. The whiff rates on both are up.

Rodriguez is also flipping the script on his efficiency, with his walk percentage, rate of pitches in the zone and first-pitch strikes having all taken turns for the better. It helps explain why he's averaging six innings per start, a basically superhuman feat in this day and age.

1. LHP Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Age: 27

2024 Stats: 3 GS, 17.1 IP, 9 H (2 HR), 20 K, 4 BB, 2.08 ERA

Tarik Skubal was on a solid trajectory before he had flexor tendon surgery in 2022, which didn't figure to do said trajectory any favors.

So much for that. Since his return on July 4 of last year, he has a 2.67 ERA over 18 starts. And regular ol' ERA actually underrates him, as he led his fellow starters in expected ERA both in 2023 and so far in 2024.

Like Ragans, Skubal is working on a significant improvement in Stuff+ out of the gate this season. He's notably added some vertical movement to a fastball that's also topped out 100 mph, yet that's not even his best pitch.

That honor belongs to his changeup, which has thus far been unhittable in 2024 to the tune of a .111 average and a 47.4 whiff percentage. As his sinker and slider have also held hitters to a .111 average, it's fair to say he has four pitches that are all clicking.

The Tigers have also let out Skubal's leash a bit, with both his average innings and pitches per start up from last year. The plan, it seems, is to let him carry them as far as he can.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.