South Carolina's Meechie Johnson David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Most Surprising Men's College Basketball Conference Contenders in 2024

Kerry Miller

South Carolina was supposed to finish in dead last in the SEC for this season of men's college basketball, but the Gamecocks incredibly are tied for first place more than halfway through league play.

They aren't the only surprising conference contender in the country, though. We'll highlight eight here, but there were at least half a dozen other viable candidates for the list.

For each team, we've included preseason projected standings as well as a snippet of their "Outlook" from The Almanac, which is as comprehensive a team-by-team preseason guide as you're going to find.

We quote that source not to poke fun at any misses, but rather because if it couldn't see you competing for a league title, it's likely no one did.

Teams are presented in alphabetical order of their conference, beginning in the American Athletic Conference with what just might be the biggest shocker of all.

Statistics and records/standings current through the start of play Thursday.

South Florida Bulls

South Florida's Chris Youngblood and Amir Abdur-Rahim Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Preseason Projection: 11th in 14-team AAC

Currently: 9-1 (1st place)

Preseason Outlook: "South Florida is hardly unique in its immense roster turnover, but Amir Abdur-Rahim knows that bringing in 10 new scholarship players could make for a challenge in terms of chemistry and cohesion. ... The Bulls must also navigate an inexperienced frontcourt rotation. Interior defense is a major unknown, particularly in a league with the likes of FAU's Vlad Goldin, Memphis' Jordan Brown and Charlotte's Dishon Jackson."—The Almanac's Jim Root

Not included above, Root also mentioned that USF had not finished .500 or better in league play since back in 2012, when it made a surprise run to the NCAA tournament out of the Big East.

But at 9-1, the Bulls have already clinched no worse than a .500 league record this year.

That's not some over-inflated, beating-up-on-the-bottom-half-of-the-league record, either. South Florida won at Memphis and at North Texas. The Bulls also beat up on Florida State on a neutral court back in early December and legitimately could knock off Florida Atlantic a week from Sunday.

What's strange is that their predictive metrics have barely changed from where they began the season. KenPom had the Bulls at No. 127 three months ago, and they've only marginally improved to No. 112, despite winning 14 of their past 15 games.

That suggests a rough finish to the regular season wouldn't be much of a surprise.

All the same, goodness, what can't Amir Abdur-Rahim do? He won 26 games last season at Kennesaw State, a program that previously had never won more than 14 in a season. Now he has South Florida destined for its first winning season since 2019 with a five-out, turnover-averse offense that could not look any more different from what it had been over the past decade.

Root was right to identify the frontcourt concerns here, as USF rarely if ever has two players taller than 6'6" on the court at the same time. But they've managed to basically break even on the glass (minus-2 for the season) while creating a nightly edge with turnovers and three-point shooting.

The Bulls might be lacking in efficiency, but not in their ability to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Florida State Seminoles

Florida State's Darin Green Rich Barnes/Getty Images

Preseason Projection: 11th in 15-team ACC

Currently: 7-4 (4th place)

Preseason Outlook: "Florida State is a bit of a mystery, especially coming off two seasons without an NCAA Tournament appearance. You can chalk last year's struggles due to injuries to some extent, but who knows whether that would be a tourney team even if it was at full strength. ... This year's team still has a bunch of uncertainty up and down the roster."—The Almanac's Jeff Goodman

Calling Florida State a contender to win the ACC right now is a stretch, particularly after the recent road loss to Louisville. The 'Noles are now three games behind North Carolina, andit's really a 3.5-game deficit, because they've already been swept by the Tar Heels.

But a potential winning record in league play?

After going 9-23 overall last season?

Didn't see that one coming.

The big difference from the past two seasons has been a return to normalcy on defense. While this isn't exactly the 2019-20 team that ranked top-10 in the nation in both steal percentage and block percentage, the 'Noles are a serious nuisance with their physicality on that end of the floor. (Save for that bizarre 101-92 loss to Louisville.)

And as has been their calling card for years, the Seminoles are just plain mountainous, leading the nation in average height once again. They only play one guy shorter than 6'5" and are built to bother you with their length.

The problem holding them back from seriously competing in the ACC is the offense just isn't good.

FSU was held below one point per possession in both losses to UNC, as well as the home loss to Clemson. Darin Green is the only perimeter shooter opponents need worry about, and no one on the roster is averaging better than 4.4 made field goals per game.

That said, the Seminoles have the length and the depth to potentially steal a bid by winning the ACC tournament.

Seton Hall Pirates

Seton Hall's Kadary Richmond Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Preseason Projection: 9th in 11-team Big East

Currently: 8-4 (3rd place)

Preseason Outlook: "There are going to be nights this season where they look like they can get to a Final Four. Then there are going to be the bad nights, too. The Pirates' roster is built on pieces known for inconsistency and injury, and it's hard to imagine a season where they aren't plagued by those same issues again."—The Almanac's Rob Dauster

As with Florida State in the ACC, this ship has likely already sailed in the Big East. Connecticut is running away with the title at 11-1.

However, that lone loss did come at the hands of Seton Hall, whicj shockingly started out 6-1 in league play.

Seton Hall has been able to mostly avoid that injury bug. The Pirates did have to play two recent games without their do-it-all veteran leader Kadary Richmond, which none too surprisingly resulted in losses to Providence and Marquette.

But in addition to the home win over Connecticut, Seton Hall won its home game against Marquette and took Creighton to triple overtime before coming up just short of yet another huge home win. They also won at Providence (albeit on the night Bryce Hopkins suffered his torn ACL) and scored a key road win over Butler.

In all of those games, Richmond was awesome. For the most part, so were Al-Amir Dawes and Dre Davis. And when all three members of that trio score in double figures, Seton Hall is 9-1, only losing that triple OT game.

Beyond those three scorers, this is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, as well as a good-not-great defense capable of racking up both steals and blocks in bunches.

They do need to work hard to make up for their three-point deficiency, allowing 8.1 triples per game while making just 5.5. But they've been able to overcome that disparity more often than not.

How they do on the road the rest of the way will determine whether the Pirates have a legitimate pulse, both for a Big East crown and a spot in the NCAA tournament. They probably should win all of their remaining home games, but playing at Villanova, St. John's, Creighton and Connecticut could get rough.

High Point Panthers

High Point's Juslin Bodo Bodo Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Preseason Projection: 7th in 9-team Big South

Currently: 9-1 (1st place)

Preseason Outlook: "On the court, (Alan Huss') vision, Xs and Os, and roster-building acumen should help High Point compete with the upper half of the league this season. While there's fierce competition at the top, the Panthers could make a splash if their high-upside transfers pan out and pair well with (Abdoulaye) Thiam."—The Almanac's Riley Davis

With a first-time head coach taking over a team that lost five of the six frequent starters from what was a sub-.500 season, High Point easily could have been a great big mess.

Instead, Alan Huss has the Panthers on pace for a program record for single-season wins. They already have 20, and their previous high was 23 in 2014-15.

It's worth noting that when Davis wrote about High Point, he didn't even know about Juslin Bodo Bodo yet—the freshman who committed to High Point at the end of July and has started every game at center for the Panthers. He doesn't score much, but he has been an outstanding rebounder and shot-blocker.

But knowing that Bodo was on the roster didn't change anything for the Big South media, who also voted High Point to finish in seventh place.

What nobody realized was how good the backcourt combo of Duke Miles (transfer from Troy) and Kezza Giffa (JUCO transfer) would be, combining for nearly 36 points per game. Or that Kimani Hamilton would be such a force in the paint after barely playing last season at Mississippi State.

Because of Hamilton and Bodo, High Point has one of the best rebounding margins in the nation. The Panthers also lead the country in both free throws made and free throws attempted, with Giffa primarily leading that charge.

Consider yourself pre-warned: This could be a dangerous team if it makes the NCAA tournament. The Big South's representative usually gets pummeled in the first round, last winning a game in 2007 (Winthrop) and only once since then losing by fewer than 10 points (2012 UNC-Asheville). But there is not a single No. 2/3 seed that wants to draw High Point in the first round.

UC San Diego Tritons

UC San Diego's Bryce Pope Justin Fine/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Preseason Projection: 9th in 11-team Big West

Currently: 9-2 (2nd place)

Preseason Outlook: "With two All-Big West players returning, two big pieces coming back from season-ending injuries, and three promising D2 transfers entering the fold, UCSD might have the talent to [get into the top tier of the Big West]."—The Almanac's Connor Hope

For UC San Diego, it's Big West regular-season title or bust, as the Tritons are in the fourth and final season of the nonsensical "transition period" from D-II, during which they are ineligible for the postseason. Players are immediately eligible after transfer and coaches can move around all they want, but sure, we still have this dumb, archaic rule in place.

And it's a shame, because Eric Olen has a squad that legitimately could write a Cinderella story.

For a team that had serious question marks at point guard coming into the season, UCSD has been exceptionally turnover-averse in Big West play, averaging 8.3 giveaways per game (while forcing 11.5 on defense). They also have six legitimate perimeter weapons in their primary rotation.

UCSD damn near beat San Diego State back on Dec. 1, with the Aztecs needing to close the game on a 20-5 run to secure a one-point victory. The Tritons also put up a good fight in their loss at UC Irvine, who will be the considerable favorite in the Big West tournament sans UC San Diego.

Long story short, this is a far cry from the team that went 30-46 across its first three seasons at the D-I level.

The exciting news for Olen and Co. is that a most of the key players still have another year of eligibility remaining, which could make this a stepping stone year to a trip to the 2025 NCAA tournament.

Green Bay Phoenix

Preseason Projection: 10th in 11-team Horizon League

Currently: 10-3 (1st place)

Preseason Outlook: "The Sunny Wicks era is starting at rock bottom, and that's not an exaggeration. With Hartford leaving D1 after last season, Green Bay finished ahead of just one returning D1 team on KenPom last year (Long Island). In the true spirit of a Phoenix, the program needs to rise from the ashes."—The Almanac's Lukas Harkins

Not only did Green Bay go 3-29 last season, but it was a steady descent into the nation's basement. The Phoenix went from 21 wins in 2018-19 to 17 the following year, eight in 2020-21 and five in 2021-22 before somehow sinking even further last year.

They were 359th in adjusted offensive efficiency AND 359th in adjusted defensive efficiency, outscored by a staggering 17.2 points per game.

So, yeah, expectations weren't exactly through the roof.

In putting Green Bay at next-to-last, The Almanac was actually generous compared to the preseason Horizon League media poll, where the Phoenix were picked dead last and by a considerable margin.

But in Noah Reynolds, Sundance Wicks sure did bring a star with him from Wyoming, where he was an assistant on Jeff Linder's staff for three years.

At 19.4 points per game, Reynolds has scored more than twice as many points as his closest teammate. He somehow also has 75 more assists than anyone else on the team.

He's certainly not steering this ship by his lonesome, though. He's simply the main guy on a deep roster where eight others average between 4.0-9.0 points per game.

To some extent, the Phoenix have taken advantage of the schedule. Four of their 10 league wins have come against IUPUI and Detroit Mercy, who are every bit as bad right now as Green Bay was one year ago. And when the Phoenix had a chance to prove something against a quality foe, they lost by 41 to Iowa State and by 34 to Oklahoma.

All the same, Wicks has Green Bay just one win away from matching its win total from the past three seasons combined.

Because they've merely gone from outside the top 350 to barely inside the top 200, it's flown well below the national radar. But you could make a strong case for Wicks for National Coach of the Year.

Washington State Cougars

Washington State's Myles Rice Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Preseason Projection: 11th in 12-team Pac-12

Currently: 7-4 (2nd place)

Preseason Outlook: "With all the offseason losses, it would be a major accomplishment if (Kyle) Smith could take this team to the NIT, let alone the NCAA Tournament. It's far more realistic that the Cougars take a step back to what they were when he first arrived in Pullman — a bottom tier Pac-12 team."—The Almanac's Jeff Goodman

Washington State lost all four of the leading scorers from a team that went a perfectly mediocre 17-17 last season.

Kyle Smith did bring in quite a bit of talent from the transfer portal, but it was unclear how well it would, well, transfer.

Isaac Jones averaged 19.4 points per game last season at Idaho, but could the Big Sky star hold his own in the Pac-12?

What about Jaylen Wells making the leap from D-II, where he averaged better than 22 points per game with Sonoma State?

Or JUCO transfer Oscar Cluff? Would he be any good in Pullman?

Well, all three have been great, averaging a combined total of nearly 35 points and 17 rebounds per game.

But the real star has been Myles Rice, who sat out the past two seasons—the first by choice, the second while battling cancer—before making his collegiate debut.

To put it lightly, he has been worth the wait, emerging as one of the best freshmen in the entire country, leading the Cougars in both assists and steals and sitting just one bucket behind Jones for the team lead in points.

Washington State did suffer a bad loss to California last month, but has won six of its past seven, including a stunning upset of Arizona. The Cougars entered Thursday just one game behind the Wildcats in the Pac-12 standings and could be headed to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2008.

South Carolina Gamecocks

South Carolina's Ta'Lon Cooper Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Preseason Projection: 14th in 14-team SEC

Currently: 8-2 (Tied for 1st place)

Preseason Outlook: "The Gamecocks finished 11-21 overall, the worst record in the SEC, and 12th out of 14 teams in league play. They were, by far, the lowest rated team in the conference on KenPom. There was a lot of work to be done once the season ended. ... There might not be enough here for the Gamecocks to play their way into the NCAA Tournament—that's a big ask—but there is enough for this group to make a run at a spot in the NIT and a top-10 finish in the SEC."—The Almanac's Rob Dauster

This is the fourth year that I've done this "surprise contenders" piece in February, and at this point, it'd be more surprising if we didn't have at least one major conference team vying for a league crown after being predicted to finish in either last or next-to-last place.

Washington State also fits that bill in the Pac-12, but South Carolina is the biggest one, already in possession of wins over Kentucky and Tennessee in the process of climbing to the top of the SEC ladder.

For the Gamecocks, the big surprise has been the most basic element of basketball: Making shots. After 14 consecutive years with an eFG% of 48.6 or lower, they are presently at 51.5 percent. That's still only marginally better than the national average (50.4), but a night-and-day improvement for this program.

And the surprising star in that department has been Ta'Lon Cooper.

He was never a bad shooter at Morehead State or Minnesota, but he was also never this absurdly efficient. Cooper had a 49.3 eFG% in his first four seasons of college hoops, and now he's at 63.4, making 47.5 percent of his three-point attempts and 56.0 percent of shots inside the arc.

Cooper is also leading the team in assists, largely responsible for putting the rest of the team in good position to score. And that has been a huge help for Meechie Johnson, who last year had to basically set himself up for his seven three-point attempts per game. His offensive efficiency has gone up considerably, too.

But, of course, South Carolina is going to get after you on defense. The Gamecocks are 19-0 this season when holding their opponent to 69 points or fewer, which includes completely shutting down both Kentucky (62) and Tennessee (59).

That defense will travel in the NCAA tournament, for which the 20-win, supposed-to-be-dead-last Gamecocks are virtually a lock.

   

Read 0 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)