Every men's college basketball team has played roughly a dozen games at this point, so it feels like we have a decent grip on which teams are legitimate threats for a March Madness run.

But do we really?

At this time last year, San Diego State (which went on to reach the national championship game) was "ranked" No. 27 in the Jan. 2 AP poll, second among others receiving votes. And the Florida Atlantic team SDSU faced in the Final Four? The Owls were just finally starting to get some national recognition, receiving three 25th-place votes.

Moreover, Marquette (a No. 2 seed), Kansas State (a No. 3 seed) and Saint Mary's (a No. 5 seed) were all unranked in that first AP poll of the new year. And while neither Marquette nor Saint Mary's survived the first weekend of the dance, Kansas State sure did make some noise with Markquis Nowell starring as the Wildcats advanced to the Elite Eight.

This, of course, raises the question: Which teams are best equipped to do the same this year?

We're not going to waste your time by simply listing the top 10 teams among others receiving votes in Monday's AP poll. In fact, five of these 10 teams received five votes or fewer (none in several cases), suggesting that AP voters would not expect them to win a single game if the NCAA tournament began today.

Schools are presented in alphabetical order.

Honorable Mentions: Utah, New Mexico, Dayton, Iowa State, McNeese State

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record and AP poll position: 8-5, three votes (tied for 41st place)

Why aren't they ranked?

Quite simply, you're not going to be ranked when you have five losses before the new year even begins. The only team with at least four losses to appear in the most recent AP poll was Gonzaga at No. 24, and the Zags absolutely do not deserve to be ranked at this point, either. (We'll rant more about that later.)

But beyond the quantity of the losses, the quality of Alabama's wins is lacking. The Crimson Tide have gone 0-5 against Quad 1, and their only Quad 2 win anywhere close to "graduating" to Quad 1 was the home victory over Indiana State back in the opening week of the season.

Why will they make noise in March?

Though Alabama is winless against Quad 1, it sure has been competitive.

The Crimson Tide gave Purdue one heck of a battle in Toronto, even taking the lead with less than five minutes remaining against our projected No. 1 overall seed. They proceeded to darn near upset Creighton in Omaha, Nebraska, and played way better in Phoenix against Arizona than the final 13-point margin would have you believe.

Three consecutive losses, but Alabama impressed in each one.

And thanks to the most efficient offense in the nation, Alabama entered play on Tuesday ranked fifth on KenPom, fifth on BPI and fifth in the NET.

Basically, this is a team that should be able to at least hang with anyone on a neutral court. It just hasn't managed to score one of those high-quality wins yet.

Buy Alabama stock while you can still get it at good value. By the time the Tide beat Tennessee and Auburn in back-to-back games later this month, it'll be too late.

Colorado Buffaloes

Current record and AP poll position: 11-2, 86 votes (28th place)

Why aren't they ranked?

The Buffaloes were ranked early in the year prior to an overtime loss to Florida State that is looking even worse now than it did at the time. They proceeded to come up a bit short at Colorado State in that rivalry game against what is probably the best mid-major in the country this year.

Colorado went 6-0 through December, though, including a 27-point beatdown of then-No. 15 Miami on a neutral floor in Brooklyn. The day after that statement win, the Buffaloes were the first team on the outside looking in with 116 votes.

And then people just kind of forgot about them, as Memphis, Ole Miss, Providence and Auburn all leapfrogged the Buffaloes to appear in the current rankings. But maybe Colorado can go on the road and stun Arizona on Thursday night to get the spot in the Top 25 it arguably deserves.

Why will they make noise in March?

Colorado hasn't even hit its full-strength stride yet, and already it is pretty good.

Freshman phenom Cody Williams has been out since early December with a wrist injury. Senior leader Tristan da Silva missed the past two games with a sprained ankle. TCU transfer Eddie Lampkin Jr. didn't start to really assert himself until Williams got hurt. And the only reason the Buffaloes lost to Florida State was because star point guard KJ Simpson had by far his worst game of the season in that one.

We can play the "If they get healthy in time for the tournament" game with an awful lot of teams around the country. But between that quartet, J'Vonne Hadley, Julian Hammond and Luke O'Brien, Colorado could be a legitimate title contender when all is said and done.

Forget about the Buffaloes in the lackluster Pac-12 at your own bracket-picking peril.

Creighton Bluejays

Current record and AP poll position: 9-4, 106 votes (27th place)

Why aren't they ranked?

Creighton hasn't gotten out to the start anyone was anticipating from the preseason No. 8 team, already suffering four losses.

The Bluejays got smoked by Colorado State in the Hall of Fame Classic on Thanksgiving afternoon, laid a great big egg at UNLV during finals week and opened Big East play with back-to-back losses to Villanova and Marquette.

Of the bunch, the only truly problematic loss was against the Rebels, in which both Trey Alexander and Steven Ashworth were basically nonexistent. But that loss coupled with the three other "acceptable" losses leaves Creighton—for the second consecutive season, by the way—needing to prove itself in early January after failing to live up to the preseason Top 10 hype.

Why will they make noise in March?

In wins, the Bluejays have looked incredible, averaging just under 91 points per game and a remarkable 1.32 points per possession. They destroyed then-undefeated Nebraska on its home floor and scored at will against both Alabama and Iowa.

This Jekyll and Hyde team just needs to figure out how to play at its best more consistently, because those marks drop to 61 points per game and 0.90 points per possession in the four losses.

The biggest determining factor for which Creighton offense shows up has been the deep ball—which checks out, since the Bluejays rank fifth in the nation in three-point attempt rate. Between the losses to Colorado State, UNLV and Villanova, they shot a combined 19-of-82 (23.2 percent) from distance.

If Baylor Scheierman, Ashworth and Mason "Ethan Wragge 2.0" Miller get into a groove in March, though, Creighton could make the type of relentless Final Four run that Miami made one year ago.

Grand Canyon Antelopes

Current record and AP poll position: 12-1, five votes (37th place)

Why aren't they ranked?

Partially because AP voters haven't been conditioned to pay any mind to Grand Canyon and partially because KenPom isn't doing the 'Lopes any favors.

Grand Canyon has never been ranked. In fact, prior to this season, it had only ever received one AP vote, when Fletcher Mackel threw GCU a 25th-place bone for starting out 18-2 in 2015-16.

But with wins over San Diego State, San Francisco, Liberty and Louisiana Tech on a docket that features just one loss to likewise 12-1 South Carolina, Grand Canyon would be getting more AP love than this if it weren't the worst-rated one-loss team on KenPom, which is a product of each of those four best wins coming by a margin of six points or fewer.

Why will they make noise in March?

Simply put, the 'Lopes have dudes.

Last year's veteran leaders Ray Harrison and Gabe McGlothan are both back and averaging better than a dozen points per game.

Jovan Blacksher Jr. averaged 15.8 points per game two years ago and is also back, though he is still getting back up to speed from the torn ACL suffered last January. He didn't make his season debut until Dec. 16, but his shooting and ball-hawking defense should be huge in WAC play.

But the biggest reason to believe in Grand Canyon is Tyon Grant-Foster. He was a scarcely used reserve at Kansas in 2020-21 and appeared in just one game at DePaul the following year before a near-death experience left him unlikely to play basketball again. But Grant-Foster is back and better than ever, averaging over 20 points per game.

With that quartet leading the way, GCU could be this year's FAU.

Michigan State Spartans

Current record and AP poll position: 8-5, 15 votes (32nd place)

Why aren't they ranked?

You mean aside from opening the season 4-5 with only one of those wins coming against an opponent in the KenPom top 300?

Michigan State has played much better over the past few weeks, but the nine-game start that included a home loss to James Madison and a rare loss to Nebraska was calamitous for what was the No. 4 team in the preseason AP poll.

Frankly, it's surprising the Spartans even have 15 votes right now, as they (deservedly) did not receive a single vote the day after the loss to Nebraska.

Why will they make noise in March?

You mean aside from Tom Izzo's career record of 55-24 in the NCAA tournament and his propensity for getting to the Final Four at least once every four years?

Despite their atrocious start, the Spartans remain unanimously top-30 in the predictive metrics portion of NCAA tournament resumes, sitting at No. 28 in NET, No. 23 in BPI and No. 20 on KenPom.

And they have been on fire lately, dismantling Baylor 88-64 in Detroit before picking up convincing wins over Oakland, Stony Brook and Indiana State at home—the latter of which was more impressive than most people likely realized, as the Sycamores were 11-1 and looking like an early candidate for an at-large bid.

After struggling early in the year, veterans A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins have been much improved, making the Spartans look more like the title contender we were expecting to see. Starting big man Mady Sissoko—who averaged 2.0 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.2 fouls in the five losses—is finally starting to make positive contributions, as well.

Princeton Tigers

Current record and AP poll position: 12-1, no votes

Why aren't they ranked?

Because they lost to Saint Joseph's.

The Tigers were surging up the "others receiving votes" pecking order during a 9-0 start that included five true road wins and a neutral-site victory over Rutgers. But despite a season-high 16 made triples at Saint Joseph's, Princeton was clipped 74-70 by the Hawks and knocked out of the conversation for a spot in the Top 25.

They have since added a solid road win over Delaware, improving to 12-1 with a tournament resume that would absolutely be worthy of an at-large bid as things stand. But the Tigers will likely need to go 4-0 in January before they can even sniff a spot in the AP poll again.

Why will they make noise in March?

Fresh off a surprise Sweet 16 appearance in the 2023 NCAA tournament, Princeton is considerably better on offense this year.

Xaivian Lee barely saw the floor toward the end of last season, but the sophomore has been one of the brightest breakout stars in the entire country, averaging 19.4 points per game, if you exclude the recent blowouts of non-D-I opponents in which he hardly played.

Fellow sophomore Caden Pierce has also taken a huge step forward, averaging 15.7 points and 10.0 rebounds against D-I competition.

Tosan Evbuomwan was a fantastic leader for this team last season, routinely flirting with triple-doubles. But he wasn't much of a perimeter threat, which meant Princeton wasn't, either.

With Evbuomwan gone and Lee running the show, the Tigers have become one of the most three-point-dependent offenses in the nation, capable of shooting their way to another second weekend in the dance—though, they should get much better than a No. 15 seed this Selection Sunday.

San Diego State Aztecs

Current record and AP poll position: 12-2, 113 votes (26th place)

Why aren't they ranked?

Because some AP voters can't be bothered to pay attention during Christmas/New Year's/bowl season.

It is downright preposterous that Gonzaga is still ranked (No. 24) while San Diego State is the first team out, even after the Aztecs convincingly won at Gonzaga the other day. Quite a few voters seem to have not realized that game happened and woefully disrespected a team that deserves to be ranked.

Fun fact: San Diego State appeared on 36 of this week's 63 ballots while Gonzaga only appeared on 24.

However, because one voter kept the Zags at No. 10 for a second consecutive week, because another actually moved them up one spot, because nine other voters kept Gonzaga in their Top 19, dropping the Zags four spots or fewer and because all 11 of those voters kept SDSU off of their ballots, well, here we are.

Why will they make noise in March?

After scoring just 59 points against Connecticut in the 2023 national championship game, San Diego State decided it'd be a good idea to actually have some offense this season.

Jaedon LeDee's transformation from "Aztecs sixth man" into "maybe the sixth-best player in the nation" has been the biggest catalyst behind the improved scoring, but landing USC transfer Reese Dixon-Waters was also huge. His scoring average (14.3 PPG) is better than anyone on last year's SDSU roster.

And though the Aztecs aren't quite as stingy on defense as they had been in most of the previous 13 seasons, they're still damn good on that end of the floor, especially over the past four weeks.

St. John's Red Storm

Current record and AP poll position: 10-4, no votes

Why aren't they ranked?

For starters, that 16-point home loss to Michigan back in the first week of the regular season has aged like a fine milk with the Wolverines losing seven of their last 10 games.

Doubling down with a not-great home loss to Boston College a month later didn't help St. John's.

And aside from a neutral-site win over Utah that didn't stand out as a quality win at the time, the Red Storm are lacking noteworthy W's.

Why will they make noise in March?

We expected it would take two years for Rick Pitino to turn St. John's into a viable second-weekend-of-the-NCAA-tournament team because, well, that's just kind of what he does. In his five previous multi-year coaching gigs (in college basketball, at any rate), Pitino's teams averaged 15.8* wins in his first year and 23.6 wins in the second year.

But the Johnnies are already good and getting better.

The defense still isn't anywhere near as impenetrable as you would expect from a Pitino-coached team, but St. John's sure can score in bunches, averaging 81.8 points over its last 11 games.

And with Massachusetts transfer RJ Luis Jr. finally in the fold after missing 10 of the first 11 games of the season, the Red Storm are looking even more potent on both ends of the floor. (With Luis replacing Glenn Taylor Jr. in the starting lineup, all five starters are averaging at least 10.9 PPG.)

They almost won at UConn just before Christmas and crushed both Xavier and Butler in the past two weeks. It wouldn't be a surprise if they won at Villanova this Saturday and/or at Creighton next Saturday to really generate some national buzz.

*Number is skewed a bit by the fact that Iona only played 18 games in his first season there, but the winning percentage always improves in year No. 2 under Pitino.

Texas A&M Aggies

Current record and AP poll position: 9-4, 13 votes (33rd place)

Why aren't they ranked?

Texas A&M put together one of the toughest nonconference schedules in the country, and it took some lumps along the way.

In addition to facing Penn State, Florida Atlantic and Iowa State in the ESPN Events Invitational, the Aggies scheduled road games against Houston, Ohio State, SMU and Virginia, as well as a home game against Memphis.

They tanked their NCSOS rank a bit by ending 2023 with back-to-back Quad 4 home games against Houston Christian and Prairie View A&M, but you can likely count on one hand the number of power-conference teams with an eight-game grouping of nonconference opponents better than that.

Unfortunately, Tyrece Radford suffered an ankle injury against FAU, didn't play against Virginia or Houston and wasn't himself against Memphis, which was a contributing factor in those four losses—in competitive games against quality opponents. And with nary a win against a currently ranked team, those four losses are too many for the AP voters' liking.

Why will they make noise in March?

The Aggies are downright relentless on the offensive glass with six players averaging at least two offensive rebounds per game. And though they do not shoot well, especially from distance, all those second-chance opportunities make this one of the most efficient offenses in the country.

And that's with Radford—a 10-plus point-per-game scorer in each of the past four seasons—not making his usual contributions since before Thanksgiving.

Once he's healthy and playing alongside Wade Taylor IV's 17.6 points, 4.5 assists and 2.1 steals per game, Texas A&M should have a sky-high ceiling.

We'll see about the defense, though. The Aggies aren't forcing turnovers anywhere near as often as they did in their first four years under Buzz Williams and have struggled to defend the perimeter, especially in their losses. Whether they can make any strides on that end of the floor will determine their March Madness potential.

Villanova Wildcats

Current record and AP poll position: 10-4, three votes (tied for 41st place)

Why aren't they ranked?

When Villanova decides not to show up, it's ugly.

The four losses came against Kansas State, Saint Joseph's, Drexel and Penn, none of whom we have projected for the NCAA tournament. Between the three losses to Philadelphia foes, the Wildcats shot a combined 24-of-97 (24.7 percent) from three-point range while allowing those opponents to shoot 29-of-60 (48.3 percent). Pretty hard to win like that.

The Kansas State loss was at least understandable, coming in overtime, on the road against a respectable foe, in a game where they lost veteran point guard Justin Moore to an injury midway through the first half. Still, that fourth loss was kind of the final straw in undoing all of the good Villanova did in winning the Battle 4 Atlantis.

Why will they make noise in March?

Playing away from home against tournament-caliber opponents, Villanova has fared quite well.

The Wildcats swept through Texas Tech, North Carolina and Memphis in the Battle 4 Atlantis, absolutely destroying a really good Memphis team in the championship game. After that tournament, they were 6-1, vaulted back up to No. 18 in the AP poll and felt like a title contender.

And after going through that end-of-November/beginning-of-December funk, they have bounced back nicely with quality defense in wins over UCLA, Creighton, DePaul and Xavier—all without Moore, no less.

They didn't even shoot well against UCLA or Creighton, but they minimized turnovers and got way more out of their bench than their opponents did, which is an occasional must in the NCAA tournament. Seeing them win those games while shooting below 32 percent from distance was even more promising than when they got hot and rode Eric Dixon to a championship in the Bahamas.