Purdue toppling Arizona in a battle of projected No. 1 seeds for the 2024 men's NCAA tournament was the biggest headline, but what a massive weekend of mid-December college hoops we were just gifted.
Now it's time to discuss how it all impacted the Selection Sunday crystal ball.
Who moved up the most in the projected NCAA tournament field after big wins? Who still has big question marks heading into the holiday season? And where do the four remaining undefeated teams stand with full-fledged conference play just beyond the horizon?
We'll start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.
The Projected Bracket

EAST REGION (Boston)
Omaha, NE
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Iona/Norfolk State
No. 8 Utah vs. No. 9 Mississippi State
Spokane, WA
No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 12 Nevada
Charlotte, NC
No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 14 Hofstra
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 TCU
Brooklyn, NY
No. 2 Connecticut vs. No. 15 Vermont
No. 7 New Mexico vs. No. 10 Indiana State
MIDWEST REGION (Detroit)
Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Merrimack/Jackson State
No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 Colorado
Spokane, WA
No. 4 Memphis vs. No. 13 McNeese State
No. 5 Colorado State vs. No. 12 Texas
Omaha, NE
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 UNC Greensboro
No. 6 Duke vs. No. 11 Northwestern
Indianapolis, IN
No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Weber State
No. 7 Iowa State vs. No. 10 South Carolina
SOUTH REGION (Dallas)
Memphis, TN
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Lipscomb
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Dayton
Brooklyn, NY
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Fort Wayne
No. 5 Illinois vs. No. 12 Drake/Saint Joseph's
Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 14 Akron
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Nebraska
Charlotte, NC
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Winthrop
No. 7 San Diego State vs. No. 10 Princeton
WEST REGION (Los Angeles)
Salt Lake City, UT
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 South Dakota State
No. 8 James Madison vs. No. 9 Grand Canyon
Pittsburgh, PA
No. 4 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 13 Liberty
No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Providence/Utah State
Salt Lake City, UT
No. 3 BYU vs. No. 14 Colgate
No. 6 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 Miami
Memphis, TN
No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 15 Morehead State
No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Villanova
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
Fifth-to-Last In: Nevada Wolf Pack (9-1)—Defeated Weber State and Hawaii ahead of Diamond Head Classic.
Fourth-to-Last In: Utah State Aggies (11-1)—Added two solid victories over Santa Clara and San Francisco.
Third-to-Last In: Providence Friars (9-2)—A Tuesday win over Marquette would be massive for Friars.
Second-to-Last In: Drake Bulldogs (10-1)—Neutral victories over Akron and Nevada still looking quite nice.
Last Team In: Saint Joseph's Hawks (9-2)—Extended winning streak to six games in blowout of Iona.
****Cut Line****
First Team Out: Cincinnati Bearcats (8-2)—14-point loss to Dayton leaves Cincinnati without any quality wins.
Second Team Out: Butler Bulldogs (9-2)—Saturday at Providence looms large for Butler to prove itself.
Third Team Out: Virginia Tech Hokies (8-3)—Blew out Vermont, previously defeated Boise State and Iowa State.
Fourth Team Out: Florida Gators (7-3)—Classic bubble resume in need of Tuesday win over Michigan.
Fifth Team Out: Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-2)—Stomped Vanderbilt Saturday, but will need many Big 12 wins.
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
1. Purdue Boilermakers
2. Arizona Wildcats
3. Houston Cougars
4. Kansas Jayhawks
5. Connecticut Huskies
6. Marquette Golden Eagles
7. Oklahoma Sooners
Purdue is clearly No. 1 overall after the head-to-head victory over Arizona this past Saturday. For the Boilermakers, it was their fifth victory over Quad 1 and their seventh against the top two quadrants, both of which are the highest marks in the nation. But for Arizona, that competitive loss certainly didn't do anything to hurt the resume.
Similar story between Kansas and Connecticut, as the Jayhawks hold the head-to-head victory as well as one additional Q1 victory. But considering a road loss to a projected No. 1 seed is the only knock on the Huskies, it'd be hard to justify putting the reigning champs any lower than No. 5 overall—particularly after their impressive "road" win over Gonzaga in Seattle on Friday night.
The only real question along the top line at this point is where to slot the two remaining undefeated teams in the conversation for a No. 1 seed.
With Oklahoma, there simply isn't much of a case yet. The Sooners do have four solid wins over Providence, Arkansas, USC and Iowa, however they have yet to win a true road game or a Q1 game, as the Friars are the only member of that quartet even in our field at the moment—and only barely at that.
That said, Oklahoma has a huge opportunity to solidify its legitimacy as a contender this week, facing North Carolina in Charlotte Wednesday night. Win that one and we'll talk about a possible No. 1 seed.
Houston has a much better resume than Oklahoma with four Q1 wins and the best defense in the nation. But Purdue's four best wins are better than anything the Cougars have done thus far, leaving Houston as something of a dividing line between Purdue/Arizona and Kansas/UConn on the tiers of No. 1 seed candidates.
Don't expect that to change in the next few weeks, either, at least as far as what Houston can control is concerned. The Cougars' next three games (all at home) against Texas State, Penn and West Virginia won't do anything to improve the resume. They'll need to win those three and the road game against Iowa State (Jan. 9) before they can make a real case for leapfrogging Arizona and Purdue.
ACC Summary
5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 9. Clemson, 13. Virginia, 21. North Carolina, 22. Duke, 42. Miami
Also Considered: Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech
Biggest Change: North Carolina slips two seed lines
The Tar Heels are still in good shape. Slightly better than those loathed rivals a few miles down Tobacco Road, at any rate.
But after coming up just short against Kentucky in the CBS Sports Classic, the resume is beginning to look a bit questionable.
Needless to say, Armando Bacot (nine points, six rebounds, six turnovers, four fouls) picked a bad time to have one of his least productive games since his freshman season. Kentucky's Aaron Bradshaw did a fantastic job against the UNC big man whose NPOY case took a serious hit here.
North Carolina is now down to No. 37 in NET with an average KPI/SOR rank of 42.5.
The home win over Tennessee was fantastic, but it was also UNC's only victory to date against a Q1 or Q2 opponent.
However, it is outrageous that the neutral-site victory over Arkansas doesn't even count as a Q2 win at this point, with the Razorbacks down at No. 101 in the NET. We can all appreciate that was a better win than the computers would have us believe, right?
Because of those two solid wins over SEC foes, the Tar Heels are still looking like a No. 6 seed in our book. And a win over Oklahoma (in Charlotte) this week would at least bump the Heels back up to a No. 5 seed, if not vault them right back to the No. 4 line.
Should they drop that one, though, they would enter ACC play with four losses, one great win, one better-than-looks win and not much else to buoy their iffy metrics. They could slide from top 25 to the bubble in a hurry.
Big 12 Summary
8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Houston, 4. Kansas, 7. Oklahoma, 10. Baylor, 11. BYU, 28. Iowa State, 44. TCU, 45. Texas
Also Considered: Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas Tech
Biggest Change: Kansas State bounced by Nebraska
In close games, Kansas State has been a warrior. The Wildcats are 4-0 in overtime games this season, including quality wins over both Villanova and Providence.
When not winning nail-biters, though, they haven't been anything special.
An eight-point loss to Miami and a 13-point loss to USC (both on neutral courts in November) left Kansas State straddling the tournament field cut line heading into Sunday's home game against Nebraska.
And losing that game by 16 was decidedly not what the doctor ordered.
The Wildcats led by six late in the first half, but completely lost the ability to score from there, held to just 12 points after the intermission as the Cornhuskers slowly but surely pulled away from their brick-laying foes. KSU finished the game 4-for-30 from three-point range and averaged a ghastly 0.69 points per possession.
The Wildcats are now barely top 100 in NET and rank well outside the top 50 in both the resume and quality metrics. (Last week, they were top 70 in NET and roughly 40th in both RES and QUAL.) They have yet to play a Q1 game and hold just a 2-3 record against Q2.
We somewhat gave the Wildcats the benefit of the doubt up until now, but that loss was a dealbreaker. To get back into the mix for a bid, they'll have their work cut out for them in that Big 12 gauntlet.
Big East Summary
5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 5. Connecticut, 6. Marquette, 12. Creighton, 37. Villanova, 48. Providence
Also Considered: Butler, St. John's
Biggest Change: Creighton salvages what could have been a disastrous week, but still slides a bit
For whatever reason, the Mountain West has figured out Creighton. The Bluejays are undefeated against opponents from every other conference, but their elite offense was shut down in blowout losses to Colorado State and UNLV.
The November loss to the Rams was pretty quickly written off as not that big of a deal; one that got out of hand on Thanksgiving against a team that turned out to be a whole lot better than anyone expected.
The 79-64 loss to UNLV, however, was a huge stunner.
The Rebels—who previously lost to Richmond, Florida State, Loyola Marymount and Southern University—punched well above their weight class on both ends of the floor, averaging 1.30 points per possession while also frustrating Creighton with 11 steals in a snail-paced affair.
Fortunately for the Bluejays, they were able to bounce back Saturday with a quality, three-point home win over Alabama in a back-and-forth affair played entirely within a 13-point window.
Had they also lost that game, Creighton would have plummeted from its previous perch as a projected No. 2 seed, as it entered that one with great metrics, but nothing better than a road win over Nebraska and a home win over Iowa on its ledger.
As is, the Bluejays didn't fall much, just to the bottom of the No. 3 seed line. But they'll quickly be tested in Big East play, opening with Villanova (home) this Wednesday before a massive showdown with Marquette (road) on Dec. 30.
Big Ten Summary
6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Purdue, 15. Wisconsin, 18. Illinois, 32. Ohio State, 41. Nebraska, 43. Northwestern
Also Considered: Michigan State, Michigan
Biggest Change: Nebraska vaults back into the field
Often times, weekly bracketology updates boil down to a version of Newton's third law of motion: For every action, there must be an equal but opposite reaction.
And if Kansas State (previously our fourth-to-last team in) getting blown out by Nebraska (previously our first team out) sent the Wildcats packing, it also provided a huge boost to the Cornhuskers' case.
Not only did Nebraska score a blowout road win over a tournament-caliber foe, but its previous best win (vs. Michigan State) looks a good bit stronger than it did a week ago following the Spartans' shellacking of previously unbeaten Baylor in Detroit over the weekend.
That win catapulted Michigan State up to No. 43 in the NET, turning what was a Q3 win into a top half of Q2 victory for the Huskers—which is also where the win over Kansas State lands on their resume.
Could this be where the drought finally ends? Is Nebraska headed back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2014? And could the Cornhuskers even win an NCAA tournament game for the first time in program history?
Early returns are promising for Fred Hoiberg's bunch, which has bounced back beautifully from the less than stellar road loss to Minnesota to open Big Ten play.
Nebraska should win its next two against North Dakota and South Carolina State and really should also win the home game against Indiana on Jan. 3. (Have we ever been able to say that in men's college basketball?) The big tests will come the following week against Wisconsin (road) and Purdue (home). If they win either of those games, the Cornhuskers will start to really feel like a tournament team.
Pac-12 Summary
3 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Arizona, 29. Utah, 33. Colorado
Also Considered: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, USC, UCLA
Biggest Change: Buh-Bye Bruins
Truthfully, the Bruins had no business being in the projected field a week ago, as their best win of the season was a home game against UC Riverside.
But just like both Texas and TCU from the Big 12, their play seemed to pass the eye test, even if their resume very much did not.
In the Maui Invitational, UCLA gave both Marquette and Gonzaga all it could handle before falling just short in both of those games. And the Bruins looked good on the road against Villanova, at least for 32 minutes before wilting.
Granted, we're talking about four games played away from home against projected tournament teams, each of which the Bruins lost by single digits. If they had won even one of those, they'd probably be in the mix for a No. 9 or No. 10 seed right now.
Should've, would've, could've, though, and what they've actually done is a whole lot of nothing.
And with just three Pac-12 teams currently projected to dance, the Bruins aren't exactly overflowing with opportunities in league play to prove they belong.
Even if they're able to pick up what would be a decent home win over Maryland this Friday, if they don't win one of their two games against Arizona, they're going to need to do some serious damage in their other 18 Pac-12 games if they want to enter Big Ten life on a four-year streak of NCAA tournament berths.
SEC Summary
9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 8. Tennessee, 17. Kentucky, 20. Auburn, 23. Ole Miss, 25. Texas A&M, 30. Alabama, 35. Mississippi State, 40. South Carolina
Also Considered: Florida
Biggest Change: Texas A&M becoming a seeding conundrum
After trailing by as many as 21 points in the second half of Saturday's showdown with Houston, Texas A&M improbably battled all the way back to tie the Cougars with 90 seconds remaining. But the Aggies couldn't quite get over the hump to reclaim the lead, ultimately taking a "quality loss" by a score of 70-66.
What else is new, though?
Quality losses have sort of been the Aggies thing thus far.
They're 7-4, but all four losses came against teams currently projected for a No. 4 seed or better. More importantly, Texas A&M has three Q1 victories, which is the most in the SEC right now. Granted, one of those (at NET No. 62 SMU) wasn't exactly a major feather in the proverbial cap, but, hey, a Q1 win is a Q1 win. The Aggies also won at Ohio State and beat Iowa State on a neutral floor, both of which are strong Ws.
Despite losing a game, we actually moved the Aggies up a seed line from a No. 8 to a No. 7, as they have looked good against one of the toughest schedules in the nation.
The good news is they get a bit of a reprieve now, wrapping up nonconference play with what should be very easy home wins over Houston Christian and Prairie View A&M. And with only one game each against Alabama, Auburn and Kentucky, they shouldn't have any problem posting a winning record in league play, which should be enough for a bid after the gauntlet they've already gone through.
Frequent Multi-Bid Mid-Majors Summary
12 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 14. Florida Atlantic, 16. Memphis, 19. Colorado State, 24. Gonzaga, 26. San Diego State, 27. New Mexico, 34. Dayton, 39. Indiana State, 46. Nevada, 47. Utah State, 49. Drake, 50. Saint Joseph's
Also Considered: Saint Mary's, San Francisco, Boise State, Duquesne, George Mason
Biggest Change: You said HOW MANY mid-majors???
Those of you religiously following this bracketology journey may notice we now have five conferences represented in this section. It was previously just the American, A-10, Mountain West and West Coast, but we've also added in the Missouri Valley after last week's discussion about Indiana State and Drake.
And between those five leagues, we are currently projecting a beautifully stunning seven at-large bids.
Such is life when the Pac-12 is looking like a three-bid league while the Big Ten is sputtering through its worst campaign in a while.
But these aren't just consolation prizes for the littler guys. With the exception of Drake (No. 61), all 12 of these teams are presently in the NET top 50. They have a collective record of 104-19, with Gonzaga (7-3) the only team with more than two Ls. Florida Atlantic, Memphis, Dayton and Saint Joseph's each has two Q1 wins.
Utah State and Saint Joseph's are the two teams in this tier who weren't in the projected field one week ago, and they both made big statements in the past seven days.
USU improved to 11-1 with a road win over Santa Clara and a home win over San Francisco. Both wins came right down to the wire, but those were resume builders against two of the four best teams in the WCC—a huge pair of results for the Mountain West as a whole, as it tries to get four or even five bids.
And Saint Joseph's—which previously won at Villanova, beat Princeton at home and darn near knocked off Kentucky at Rupp Arena—put a hurting on Iona in an 83-58 blowout. The Gaels aren't as good as they've been in recent years, but they don't lose like that. That was a statement win by the Hawks, who could gain even more ground with a similar convincing victory at Charleston this week.
One-Bid Leagues Summary
21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 31. James Madison, 36. Grand Canyon, 38. Princeton, 51. Liberty, 52. McNeese State, 53. UC Irvine, 54. Fort Wayne, 55. Akron, 56. Hofstra, 57. UNC Greensboro, 58. Colgate, 59. Vermont, 60. Morehead State, 61. Weber State, 62. Winthrop, 63. South Dakota State, 64. Lipscomb, 65. Norfolk State, 66. Iona, 67. Jackson State, 68. Merrimack
Biggest Change: Fort Wayne takes the Horizon's reins
In most of the projections up until this point, Wright State was the Horizon League's representative. But with the Raiders falling to 4-6 with yet another loss this past week, it's time to show some long overdue love to the Mastodons of Purdue Fort Wayne.
The artist formerly known as IPFW opened the season rated No. 298 on KenPom, given virtually no chance of getting to the NCAA tournament for what would be the first time in program history. But save for an understandable road loss to the Dons of San Francisco, these 'Dons are undefeated, improving to 11-1 with a blowout of Bethune-Cookman this past week.
Aside from winning at Oakland, all of those wins are either Q4 or non-D1, so Fort Wayne is nowhere close to at-large consideration at this point in time. But it is up to No. 74 in the NET with an average KPI/SOR rank of 53.5 which is better than what a bunch of projected tournament teams are bringing to the table.
And while they aren't quite at-large material just yet, the Mastodons could get there with a win at Pittsburgh on Wednesday night. Even though the Panthers aren't a projected tournament team, that would be a solid Q1 victory over the NET No. 40 squad.
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