The College Football Playoff committee rocked the football world yesterday when it placed one-loss Alabama into the four-team field over undefeated Florida State. While there's no shortage of opinions regarding this controversial decision, it clearly showed that college football's decision-makers value what they truly believe are the best teams over ones that simply have a better record.
It may be time for the NFL to follow suit with its MVP award. The 50 sportswriters who make up the AP's voting body for this award have heavily favored starting quarterbacks—each of the past 10 MVPs and 46 of the 67 total MVPs have played the position—who play for the league's top teams. While the current DraftKings Sportsbook odds suggest yet another player who fits that bill will claim the MVP award in 2023, this should be the year a shakeup finally happens.
The players who have truly been the most valuable and instrumental toward the success of their team should get more recognition. Acknowledgement should be directed more toward the type of player who cannot simply be replaced with a merely above-average talent and still see their team fare well.
You'd have to go all the way back to Adrian Peterson's record-setting 2012 campaign to find the last time there was a deviation from the current norm. AP tallied up an incredible 2,314 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns that year and still only narrowly edged out Peyton Manning during a relatively average season (4,659 passing yards and 37 touchdowns) for the Hall of Fame signal-caller. That result shows just how difficult it is for a non-traditional candidate to break the mold.
With that in mind, here are four players who have defined the 2023 season and aren't getting enough recognition for their efforts. These players all have outside chances to win right now but deserve more credit and should be near the top of the short-list of favorites given their contributions.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens have re-emerged as one of the preeminent teams in the AFC this season with a 9-3 record that is tied for best in the conference. This resurgence is due in no small part to the outstanding play of quarterback Lamar Jackson, who looks healthy and is once again performing at an MVP level.
Jackson was only able to participate in 12 games in each of the past two seasons because of injuries. His absence down the stretch led to Baltimore missing the playoffs in 2021 and getting eliminated early in 2022. He's managed to stay healthy for the first 12 games of 2023 and has shown no signs of slowing down, easily justifying the hefty five-year, $260 million contract he signed this offseason.
While Jackson isn't slinging touchdown passes at the same rate he was during his MVP campaign in 2019, he's doing just about everything else at a high level while almost single-handedly carrying the offense. The 26-year-old is completing a career-best 68.3 percent of his throws for 2,618 yards and 13 touchdowns while adding 574 yards and five scores on 112 rushing attempts.
Jackson has accomplished these lofty marks despite a general lack of support from the backfield. After starting running back J.K. Dobbins went down in the season-opener, Baltimore was left with a middling veteran combination of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill to shoulder most of the rushing load. While rookie Keaton Mitchell has begun to heat up, Jackson still ranks No. 2 in rushing on the team and is only 16 yards behind Edwards for the lead.
Baltimore's receiving corps hasn't been as good as initially advertised, either. While rookie Zay Flowers has been a revelation and leads the team in nearly every major receiving category, 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman has been underwhelming. Marquee offseason pickup Odell Beckham Jr. hasn't done much of note, and star tight end Mark Andrews' season ended after suffering an injury in mid-November.
It's hard to envision the Ravens posting a winning record, let alone pace a competitive AFC field with five games left to play if almost any other quarterback was under center. Despite this, Jackson has just the fifth-best odds to win MVP this year at +900, one of the most clear-cut examples that this award probably isn't going to the player who is truly the most valuable to his team.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa is enjoying his finest season as a pro thanks to a combination of health and talent surrounding him. He's a big reason why the Miami Dolphins are a legit contender and feature one of the league's most exciting offenses. Boasting a completion rate of 70.1 percent to go with a passing yardage total of 3,457 yards and 24 touchdowns for a 9-3 team at this point in the season would have anyone on the MVP radar, but Tagovailoa's +700 odds—the fourth-best in the field—may be overstating his impact.
The true reason for Miami's ascendence into the upper echelon of NFL offenses has been the arrival of Tyreek Hill. The veteran receiver has completely transformed this unit since coming over in an offseason trade in 2022, raising the ceiling on it significantly while aiding Tagovailoa's development into an elite quarterback.
Hill has been a transformative talent in Miami. While the Kansas City Chiefs were reticent to give the aging wideout a market-value contract extension despite his career-best 1,710 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 119 receptions in 2022, the defending Super Bowl champions' loss has been the Dolphins' gain. Hill clearly hasn't lost a step in his age 29 season, amassing a ridiculous 1,481 yards and 12 touchdowns on 93 catches over the first 12 games.
There's now a real chance that Hill breaks Calvin Johnson's record of 1,964 receiving yards that was set over a decade ago. Hill has been averaging 123.4 yards per game, putting him on par breech that mark before even needing a 17th game to shatter it and become the league's first 2,000-yard receiver.
Even if Hill does accomplish that incredibly impressive feat, it's unlikely MVP voters will acknowledge it. Johnson didn't receive a single MVP vote when he set the current record in 2012, and there's a good chance history repeats itself in 2023. Voters have never been kind to wideouts, as none have won the award and only a select few have even earned votes. That includes Randy Moss getting a meager four votes during his awe-inspiring 1998 season and Cooper Kupp getting just one when he earned the Triple Crown in 2021.
While Hill is tied with Christian McCaffrey for the seventh-best MVP odds in the field at +1600, there's realistically no chance he takes home this hardware considering Tua's placement ahead of him. It's a shame, as there's no chance Miami is nearly as effective or dangerous without the playmaking receiver in the fold.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy has established himself as the MVP favorite over the past few weeks, leaping to the catbird's seat following a string of stellar performances. While the second-year signal-caller has completed 70.2 percent of his throws for 3,185 yards and 23 touchdowns against six interceptions, there's a real argument to be made that he's not even the most valuable player on the San Francisco 49ers offense.
That would be Christian McCaffrey, the all-world running back who has completely opened up the playbook for head coach Kyle Shanahan since coming over in a trade at last year's deadline. McCaffrey has been a true steal for San Francisco—which only gave up a handful of Day 2 and 3 picks to acquire him—and has posted some incredible numbers as the lynchpin of this offense. He's participated in 23 games and in that span has piled up 1,778 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground while adding 893 yards and nine scores on 103 receptions.
While Purdy deserves credit for avoiding turnovers, making smart throws and being an overall great quarterback, McCaffrey is the one lifting this squad to new heights. While the team might still be playoff-bound and successful with a replacement-level quarterback under center, it wouldn't be nearly as explosive, dynamic or unpredictable without McCaffrey in the mix.
Despite his immense contributions, McCaffrey only has +1600 odds to win the MVP award. While that ranks him ahead of every other skill position player aside from Tyreek Hill, it's still tied for just the seventh-best odds in the field. Flipping his odds with Purdy's +300 would make more sense if voters truly considered the value these players had to the San Franciso offense.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
The Houston Texans' rapid ascension from an NFL laughingstock to a contender is one of the most surprising stories of the 2023 season. Almost all the credit for this stunning turnaround stems from the organization's decision to select C.J. Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick. Despite guiding his Texans to a respectable 7-5 record and having the squad within striking distance of the playoffs at this late point in the campaign, Stroud is hardly making any waves as an MVP candidate.
There are 11 players with better odds of capturing this award than Stroud at +5000. Nine of them are quarterbacks, but not one of them has more passing yards than the league-leading rookie who has amassed a whopping 3,540 across 12 games.
While Stroud hasn't been perfect—his 63.4 completion percentage could improve significantly—he's deftly managed to avoid turnovers despite his high volume of throws. The 22-year-old is the only passer with more than 400 attempts this season to have five or fewer interceptions.
Perhaps most importantly, Stroud has helped turn underperforming talents like Nico Collins into stars and has Houston contending again. He's done this despite regression from Damien Pierce—one of the few bright spots for the 2022 Texans—and little support from a rushing attack that averages fewer than 100 yards per game.
Given the Texans had won just seven games combined across 2021-2022 and had a meager total of 11 victories during the three-year span between Deshaun Watson's last game for the franchise and Stroud's first start, the rookie quarterback has shown he's an incredibly valuable and defining piece for Houston. He's almost single-handedly lifted this franchise out from the league's basement and deserves more recognition for that herculean feat.
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