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College Football Playoff: Final 2023 Bowl Game Projections

David Kenyon

If you wanted chaos, college football's slate of conference championships in 2023 did not disappoint.

Top-ranked Georgia fell to Alabama, sparking a dramatic conversation in College Football Playoff rankings. While the back-to-back national champs are likely watching from home, might Alabama be too?

Two things we know: Washington is in, and Michigan is too.

Alabama has a strong case, as does Texas. But the real complication is that Florida State—despite starting Brock Glenn, its third-string quarterback—won an ACC title and holds a 13-0 record.

One of them will be out.

Headlined by our official College Football Playoff projections, the final bowl projections of the 2023 season are up next.

Group of 5 Matchups

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Myrtle Beach (Dec. 16): Northern Illinois vs. Georgia State
New Orleans (Dec. 16): Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana
Cure (Dec. 16): New Mexico State vs. Appalachian State
New Mexico (Dec. 16): Fresno State vs. Marshall
Famous Toastery (Dec. 18): Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Frisco (Dec. 19): Rice vs. Texas State
Gasparilla (Dec. 22): James Madison vs. South Florida
Camellia (Dec. 23): Eastern Michigan vs. Arkansas State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Ohio vs. Utah State
68 Ventures (Dec. 23): Bowling Green vs. South Alabama
Hawai'i (Dec. 23): San Jose State vs. Coastal Carolina
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Toledo vs. Wyoming
Arizona (Dec. 30): Miami (Ohio) vs. UNLV

Note: Italics denote an official destination.

Locked In: New Orleans Bowl

As the program makes its transition from the FCS level, Jacksonville State is not officially headed to a bowl with a sixth win until 2025. Thanks to a shortage of eligible teams, however, the Gamecocks are laughing at NCAA rules. They'll be playing in the New Orleans Bowl against Louisiana, which finished 6-6 and is headed to this particular game for the seventh time in the past 13 seasons.

Locked In: Hawai'i Bowl

Coastal Carolina and San Jose State, meanwhile, have a trip to Hawaii on the horizon. SJSU coach Brent Brennan announced his team's destination in hilarious fashion, entering the team's meeting room carrying a surfboard—oh, while shirtless and in a swim suit, too.

Group of 5 vs. Power 5

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LA (Dec. 16): Boise State vs. UCLA
Boca Raton (Dec. 21): Georgia Southern vs. Duke
Birmingham (Dec. 23): Troy vs. Georgia Tech
Armed Forces (Dec. 23): Air Force vs. Kansas
First Responder (Dec. 26): UTSA vs. UCF
Military (Dec. 27): Tulane vs. Syracuse
Fenway (Dec. 28): SMU vs. Boston College
Liberty (Dec. 29): Memphis vs. Iowa State

Stock Up: Boise State Broncos

How about the Broncos? Despite firing coach Andy Avalos in November, they are once again Mountain West champions. Boise State rolled UNLV 44-20 to secure the league's top bowl and a clash with a Pac-12 opponent, which will likely be UCLA—or Cal, if not.

Stock Down: Tulane Green Wave

With a presumed return trip to a New Year's Six bowl at stake, the Green Wave put forth a dud. They lost to SMU, which lost quarterback Preston Stone to an ankle injury last week, in the AAC Championship Game. Adding insult to Tulane's injured pride, head coach Willie Fritz is reportedly leaving for Houston.

Power 5 Matchups, Part I

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Independence (Dec. 16): Texas Tech vs. Cal
Las Vegas (Dec. 23): Maryland vs. Utah
Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 26): Northwestern vs. West Virginia
Mayo (Dec. 27): North Carolina vs. Kentucky
Holiday (Dec. 27): Clemson vs. Oregon State
Texas (Dec. 27): Kansas State vs. Texas A&M

Stock Down: Potential Holiday Bowl Matchup

Well, bummer. I was excited at the prospect of Clemson taking on Oregon State in a reunion (revenge?) game for DJ Uiagalelei, who transferred from Clemson to OSU last offseason. Oregon State coach Jonathan Smith accepted a job at Michigan State, however, and Uiagalelei entered the transfer portal soon after. He won't play in the bowl, leaving Aidan Chiles as the Beavers' expected starter.

Power 5 Matchups, Part II

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Pinstripe (Dec. 28): Miami vs. Rutgers
Pop-Tarts (Dec. 28): North Carolina State vs. Oklahoma State
Alamo (Dec. 28): Oklahoma vs. Arizona
Gator (Dec. 29): Notre Dame vs. Tennessee
Sun (Dec. 29): Georgia Tech vs. USC
Music City (Dec. 30): Minnesota vs. Auburn
ReliaQuest (Jan. 1): Wisconsin vs. LSU
Citrus (Jan. 1): Iowa vs. Ole Miss

Missed Chaos, Part I: Oklahoma State Struggles in Big 12 Title

Oklahoma State recovered from a messy September and reached the Big 12 Championship Game, largely thanks to a win over SEC-bound rival Oklahoma. But on the league's biggest stage, the Pokes had a rough afternoon. Texas outgained them by a staggering 381 yards and cruised to a 49-21 win, keeping OSU out of a larger bowl.

Missed Chaos, Part II: Iowa Does Iowa Things

Sure, most everyone had minimal expectations for Iowa. All season, a tenacious defense has atoned for the Hawkeyes' dismal offense. On a day loaded with upsets, however, Iowa could not conjure up an outlier performance. Michigan won 26-0, holding the Hawkeyes to 155 yards.

Non-CFP New Year's Six Games

Kaidon Salter AP Photo/Robert Simmons

Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29): Georgia vs. Penn State
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30): Liberty vs. Missouri
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30): Louisville vs. Alabama
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1): Ohio State vs. Oregon

Stock Up: Liberty Flames

The lone undefeated Group of Five program is Liberty, which also won Conference USA during its debut season in the league. Kaidon Salter threw for 319 yards, rushed for 165, totaled three touchdowns and guided the Flames to a 49-35 triumph over New Mexico State. Liberty will get a chance at a Power Five opponent in a New Year's Six bowl.

Stock Down: Georgia Bulldogs

Alabama's upset in the SEC Championship Game may have caused major changes to the NY6 lineup. In non-semifinal years, the Orange Bowl is obligated to take the highest-ranked Big Ten or SEC team (not in the CFP) to play the ACC representative. Until Saturday, that had always looked like Ohio State. But Alabama, if it's out of the CFP, would probably settle in front of OSU and Georgia.

College Football Playoff

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Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Washington (2) vs. Florida State (3)
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): Michigan (1) vs. Texas (4)

National Championship (Jan. 8): Washington vs. Michigan

Washington? Simple. Michigan? Easy.

From there, however, the CFP selection committee has a legitimately tough discussion on its hands.

Florida State should not be a complicated team...on paper. The challenge is that 13-0 FSU will not have quarterback Jordan Travis available because of a leg injury, and it's certainly rational to say Alabama and Texas are both superior teams at this particular moment.

I'm keeping an unbeaten, power-conference champion in the Top Four, though, and I believe the committee will do the same.

Alabama has a compelling argument, given that it upset top-ranked Georgia to secure the SEC crown. Texas, however, beat the Crimson Tide—in Tuscaloosa—earlier this season. Advantage: Horns.

   

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