Though we're still waiting on the biggest, Shohei Ohtani-sized domino to fall, there have already been several lucrative deals handed out in this year's MLB free-agency cycle. Eight players have agreed to contracts worth at least $10 million per year, and there could be as many as 50 more at that price point when all is said and done.

Not all of them will be worth it, though, and we've pinpointed a few of the likeliest candidates to be overpaid in free agency.

To be clear, "overpaid" doesn't mean "worthless."

For example, Eduardo Rodriguez would probably be a bargain at $12-$15 million per year, but will he really be worth the $20 million-plus per year he's likely to receive?

In some cases, players were chosen because of age and/or declining production. In others, it's positional scarcity or supply and demand working in favor of the player.

After nominating one overpaid player who has already signed and one player who doesn't have a projected market value on Spotrac, players will be discussed in alphabetical order by last name.

From the 'Already Signed' Tier: RHP Kyle Gibson, St. Louis Cardinals

2023 Stats: 192.0 IP, 4.73 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 0.9 bWAR

Career Stats: 1,696.0 IP, 4.54 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 15.0 bWAR

Contract: One year, $12 million, plus a $12 million club option ($1 million buyout) for 2025

We'll spend the bulk of our time speculating on projected contracts as opposed to actual deals already signed. However, there have been several noteworthy free agents signed, so let's touch on the biggest overpay that has already transpired.

No, it's not Aaron Nola, even though he signed the largest contract by a country mile. Given his durability and performance in recent years and the current state of MLB's starting pitching market, seven seasons for a shade under $25 million per year is pretty fair value.

But why, pray tell, did Kyle Gibson get a 30 percent pay raise after last season?

The Baltimore Orioles made Gibson their highest-paid player in 2023, and then didn't even want him starting a game in the postseason after he needed a good run in September to get his ERA below 5.00.

And that's nothing new. Take out the 15-start stretch in the first half of 2021 in which he had an unsustainably great 1.51 ERA, and it has been a rough half-decade for Gibson. Even with that red-hot run factored in, the now-36-year-old right hander has a 4.63 ERA and 1.34 WHIP dating back to the start of 2019.

At least he stays healthy, trailing only Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke for most innings pitched over the past decade. That's worth something to a Cardinals team practically resetting its entire rotation this offseason.

But $13 million? Probably not.

From the 'No Market Value Provided' Tier: LHP Sean Manaea

2023 Stats: 117.2 IP, 4.44 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 0.3 bWAR

Career Stats: 1,002.2 IP, 4.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 12.0 bWAR

Contract Projection: N/A

For the vast majority of free agents likely to fetch at least $10 million on their next contract, Spotrac lists a projected market value. But there are a few exceptions to that rule, most notably in the form of Shohei Ohtani, for whom there is no adequate comparison from which Spotrac's model can even try to gauge what similar players have been worth.

Of that tier which also includes Justin Turner, Frankie Montas, Tyler Mahle and others, the player most likely to be overpaid is Sean Manaea.

Why Manaea?

The soon-to-be 32-year-old southpaw declined his $12.5 million player option to return to San Francisco in 2024, this despite a 4.73 ERA and a negative-0.5 bWAR since the beginning of 2022. He would not have made that decision unless he and his agent were under the impression that he will fetch even more than that on the open market, making $12.5 million the unofficial floor for his upcoming deal.

To his credit, Manaea finished 2023 on a strong note. Over his final 51.2 innings pitched, he had a 2.61 ERA, including consecutive quality starts against the Dodgers and Padres to end the season.

However, he needed that finish just to get back up to replacement-level value after a rough first four months of the season in which the Giants couldn't figure out when and where to use him.

Manaea could be an interesting fit with the Tampa Bay Rays, who both need healthy arms and have plenty of experience when it comes to using pitchers interchangeably between the rotation and the bullpen.

But would they be willing and able to spend at least $13 million for him?

And would he be worth that much?

OF Harrison Bader

2023 Stats: .232/.274/.348, 7 HR, 40 RBI, 20 SB, 0.6 bWAR

Career Stats: .243/.310/.396, 59 HR, 217 RBI, 77 SB, 12.1 bWAR

Contract Projection: Four years, $61 million

Over the past three seasons, Harrison Bader has made six separate trips to the IL, and all for different injuries. It was a forearm, then a rib, a foot, an oblique, a hamstring and then a groin.

Even Byron Buxton is probably starting to wonder why this poor guy can't stay healthy.

But even when Bader does play, he simply has not been productive enough over the past two seasons to warrant this type of contract projection.

In 184 games since the beginning of 2022, Bader has a .284 on-base percentage and a wRC+ of 77, both of which are good for bottom 20 among the 262 players with at least 600 plate appearances.

Bader does still provide decent value as both a defender and a baserunner. However, unless you think Jorge Mateo would be worthy of a four-year, $61 million contract if he were a free agent this year, it's hard to argue that Bader should get over $15 million per season, because they've basically provided the same value over the past two years, albeit at different positions.

What Bader probably should get is a three-year deal worth somewhere in the $30-$36 million range, with the last season either a club option or a vesting option based on games played in the first two years. A fully guaranteed, four-year contract at $15 million a pop would be madness.

1B/OF Joey Gallo

2023 Stats: .177/.301/.440, 21 HR, 40 RBI, 0.5 bWAR

Career Stats: .197/.323/.466, 198 HR, 426 RBI, 15.1 bWAR

Contract Projection: One year, $14.3 million

At least with Joey Gallo, there was a point when he was worth taking an eight-figure flyer on.

From 2017-21, Gallo clubbed 151 home runs, good for sixth-most in the majors. Sure, he hit .208 and whiffed at a ghastly 36 percent rate, but he provided great defense in right field, winning two Gold Gloves in addition to his many moonshots.

But in his final year of arbitration eligibility in 2022, Gallo took a nosedive, batting a putrid .160, striking out nearly 40 percent of the time and playing some of his worst defense to that point in his career.

Minnesota took an $11 million gamble on him anyway, and he didn't get any better in 2023. MLB even eliminated the shift which should have helped Gallo out from a BABIP perspective. It didn't, though. And in addition to his whiff rate spiking again to 42.8 percent, his value added on defense declined even further.

Yet, Spotrac projects Gallo for a 30 percent pay raise to $14.3 million?

It is slim pickings this year for bats, which figures to drive up the price of the few good ones available.

But who in the world is making that offer for Gallo?

C/DH Mitch Garver

2023 Stats: .270/.370/.500, 19 HR, 50 RBI, 2.1 bWAR

Career Stats: .252/.342/.483, 82 HR, 228 RBI, 9.8 bWAR

Contract Projection: Three years, $30 million

From an "OPS when healthy" perspective, Mitch Garver is a very intriguing free agent. Dating back to the beginning of 2019, he has slugged north of .500 with an .854 OPS. Among players with at least 1,000 plate appearances over the past half-decade, that puts Garver in the same class as Nolan Arenado (.512 SLG, .850 OPS) and Austin Riley (.509 SLG, .850 OPS).

The "when healthy" part is the problem, though, as Garver has played in just 46 percent of possible team games in that five-year window.

Even accounting for the fact that catchers get routine days off and that Minnesota all but refused to use him as a DH from 2019-21, that's a whole lot of absences to account for when contemplating making Garver one of the five highest-salaried catchers in the majors—if we can even call him a catcher anymore, making just 41 starts behind the plate over the past two years combined.

Christian Vázquez got a three-year, $30 million deal last winter, but at least he provided plus defense as a backstop while appearing in more than 80 percent of team games from 2019-22.

Garver turns 33 next month and was already struggling to stay healthy while primarily serving as a DH. Maybe one year for $10 million would be fine, but 3/$30M seems like a huge risk.

LHP Clayton Kershaw

2023 Stats: 131.2 IP, 2.46 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 3.7 bWAR

Career Stats: 2,712.2 IP, 2.48 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 79.9 bWAR

Contract Projection: One year, $37.05 million

We all know that Clayton Kershaw is not getting $37 million for next season.

Even if he was healthy heading into the offseason, he made $17 million in 2022 and $20 million in 2023. There's no reason that would magically spike to $37 million in 2024 after yet another season in the vicinity of just 125 innings pitched. Spotrac's model is simply a bit on the fritz here, using the massive salaries in the Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom's contracts as three of the four main comps for what Kershaw could be worth.

And he's not healthy anyway. Kershaw underwent shoulder surgery in early November and is "hopeful to return to play at some point next summer."

That begs the question: What is the market for Kershaw?

Given the uncertainty on when he'll be available, will anyone be willing to give him $15 million? Maybe some sort of fancy pro-rated deal where innings pitched and days on the active roster determine the actual value of the contract?

Heck, will he even sign this offseason—let alone during winter meetings—or might this play out like the final two years of Roger Clemens' career, in which he twice waited until May to sign with the underperforming team that was most desperate to acquire him?

My shot-in-the-dark guess for Kershaw is that he waits until at least late-December, and then signs with one of the dejected teams that misses out on both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, getting a back-loaded, two-year deal similar to Tyler Glasnow's. Because if it's a straight one-year, eight-figure deal, living up to that price is going to be tough.

LHP Jordan Montgomery

2023 Stats: 188.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 4.1 bWAR

Career Stats: 755.0 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 12.5 bWAR

Contract Projection: Six years, $110.4 million

If Jordan Montgomery actually signs a contract that matches this Spotrac projection, that would not be an overpay. An $18.4 million AAV might actually be a slight underpay.

But there's just no way he's signing for 6/$110M, right?

Not after the October he had, during which time fans around the country were forced to finally appreciate how consistently solid Montgomery has been over the past three years.

Not after both Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola already signed multiyear deals with an AAV of roughly $25 million.

If Montgomery gets a six-year deal, it'll probably be for at least $138 million, if not $150 million or more, because that's the tax you have to pay to sign a player fresh off playing a key role for a World Series champion.

MLB Insider Jon Heyman reported on Thursday that Montgomery will likely fetch "what one exec guessed would be '30 to 40 percent more' than he should." And while it could just be a case of one executive thinking Montgomery's only worth around $13 million per year, it's more likely a statement that his asking price has gotten a bit out of hand compared to where he was valued maybe six months ago.

RF Hunter Renfroe

2023 Stats: .233/.297/.416, 20 HR, 60 RBI, -0.6 bWAR

Career Stats: .239/.300/.478, 177 HR, 454 RBI, 10.3 bWAR

Contract Projection: Two years, $36.5 million

There's just no way, right?

$18.25 million per year for Hunter Renfroe?

And for two years?

When Lourdes Gurriel Jr. isn't even projected for $15 million per year?

Even at his peak, Renfroe was never worth more than 2.7 WAR—neither on Baseball Reference nor on FanGraphs—in a given season. And he is fresh off a rather abysmal campaign in which he was waived by the Angels and subsequently released by the Reds.

At least from a slugging perspective, Renfroe did have a pretty solid run prior to last season, hitting 153 home runs from 2017-22. That's only one fewer than Freddie Freeman's 154 during that time, and Freeman made 3,578 plate appearances to Renfroe's 2,647. Even Shohei Ohtani (16.8 PA/HR) barely has a career home run rate better than Renfroe's was for those six years (17.3 PA/HR).

But between the poor on-base percentage and the mediocre-at-best defense in right field, even an equally homer-ific season in 2023 probably wouldn't have been enough for him to be worth this projected cost.

Renfroe received $11.9 million in arbitration last year. Anything above that would be an overpay.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

2023 Stats: 152.2 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 3.5 bWAR

Career Stats: 1100.1 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 17.9 bWAR

Contract Projection: Five years, $102.5 million

For $20.5 million annually over the course of five seasons, you would hope you're getting ace-level production. There were only 15 pitchers in the majors who made more than $20 million last season, and this price point would have made Eduardo Rodriguez the highest-paid pitcher on 18 different staffs.

So...is he an ace?

Rodriguez has pitched enough innings to qualify for an ERA title just once in his career, reaching that plateau in 2019. That's not a great start.

And let's just say this isn't a Clayton Kershaw or Jacob deGrom situation where he's consistently producing at an All-Star level for the innings that he is able to give you while healthy. Even with an uncommonly dominant five-start stretch early last season in which he allowed just one run in 35.2 innings of work, Rodriguez has never finished a season with either an ERA or a FIP lower than 3.30.

That isn't to say he can't get there. It wasn't until Kevin Gausman's eighth season that he finally finished below that mark in either department, and now he's an annual Cy Young threat.

But if you're signing Rodriguez and hoping for Gausman, you may also want to spend some time considering you might be getting Martín Pérez or Tyler Anderson, who each unexpectedly had a great year in 2022 before regressing drastically in 2023.

Of the top 10 pitchers who were available in free agency this year, Rodriguez seems like the biggest risk. If he actually gets a nine-figure deal, it could age about as poorly as Patrick Corbin's contract has aged for the Washington Nationals.