Bleacher Report

Bleacher Report's Expert Week 12 NFL Picks

BR NFL Staff

Bleacher Report's NFL expert crew is in a giving mood for the holiday, so we rolled out our Week 12 picks a day ahead to give bettors an early start on a full platter of games with all 32 teams in action.

Our panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford, feel greedy this week―not just because of Thanksgiving Day games. They're going to swallow the points with unanimous decisions for the two biggest favorites on the upcoming slate.

This week, quarterback injuries and changes will impact a handful of games, and one team fired its offensive coordinator on Tuesday.

Before we dive into all 16 games, let's go through the standings (against the spread and straight up) through Week 11. You can see some separation at the top of both categories as we roll into Thanksgiving with seven weeks left in the 2023 season.

ATS Standings

1. Gagnon: 93-69-2 (8-6)

2. Davenport: 89-73-2 (7-7)

3. Moton: 88-74-2 (8-6)

4. Hanford 86-76-2 (7-7)

5. Knox: 81-81-2 (5-9)

6. Sobleski: 79-83-2 (8-6)

7. O'Donnell: 75-87-2 (5-9)

Consensus picks: 88-74-2 (7-7)

SU Standings

1. Hanford 110-54 (11-3)

2. Moton: 108-56 (9-5)

3. Knox: 102-62 (9-5)

T-4. Davenport: 101-63 (9-5)

T-4. Gagnon: 101-63 (9-5)

6. Sobleski: 97-67 (11-3)

7. O'Donnell: 96-68 (9-5)

Consensus picks: 105-59 (10-4)

Lines are from DraftKings as of Tuesday, Nov. 21, at 4 p.m. ET. Check the latest lines at DraftKings. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

Green Bay Packers (4-6) at Detroit Lions (8-2)

Lions QB Jared Goff Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

DraftKings Line: Detroit -7.5

As usual, the Detroit Lions will host the early Thanksgiving Day game. They'll square off against the Green Bay Packers, whom they beat 34-20 in Week 4.

Since that contest, Jordan Love has made strides, though. In his last five outings, he's thrown for eight touchdowns and four interceptions. In Week 11, Love led a game-winning touchdown drive to help Green Bay pull out a 23-20 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

Yet most of our panel remains hesitant about the Packers and their ability to compete with top-tier teams. Hanford spoke on behalf of our consensus pick and expects the Lions to barrel through the Packers' 28th-ranked run defense for a double-digit win.

"The Lions were tested by the Bears in Justin Fields' return in Week 11, but I don't see Jordan Love and the Packers coming into Detroit and doing the same. Detroit is 2-1 when favored by at least seven points and beat Green Bay by two touchdowns in Week 4. The Packers have struggled mightily to stop the run this season, which doesn't bode well against a Lions squad that now boasts a true two-headed monster with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

"Green Bay holds the edge in this rivalry series historically, but Detroit has won the last four meetings. The Lions control this game on the ground and win by 10 on Thanksgiving."

Predictions

Davenport: Lions

Gagnon: Packers

Hanford: Lions

Knox: Lions

Moton: Lions

O'Donnell: Lions

Sobleski: Packers

ATS Consensus: Lions -7.5

SU Consensus: Lions

Score Prediction: Lions 31, Packers 21

Washington Commanders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb AP Photo/Rusty Jones

DK Line: Dallas -11

After a shocking Week 3 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the Dallas Cowboys have crushed inferior opponents since their Week 7 bye. They've beaten the Los Angeles Rams, New York Giants and Carolina Panthers by at least 23 points.

Last week, the Washington Commanders fell apart in a 31-19 loss to the New York Giants. The Commanders have dropped four of their last five games, and they're likely on the road to a complete rebuild in 2024.

Our experts see another blowout win for the Cowboys before their schedule gets much tougher after Thanksgiving. Barring a Cowboys food hangover, Davenport expects Dallas to win big against another sub-.500 club.

"Whether this game is a tasty dessert or a full-on case of heartburn on Turkey Day depends on which team you're rooting for," Davenport joked.

"The Commanders lead the NFC with 21 giveaways and are second in the NFL in sacks allowed. The Cowboys are tied for third in the NFC in takeaways and second in the conference in sacks. Dallas cornerback DaRon Bland has twice as many touchdowns as Commanders wideout Terry McLaurin.

"Unless every Cowboys player eats an entire turducken just before the game, Dallas is going to roll here—and Commanders head coach Ron Rivera will be one game closer to doing reverse mortgage commercials for a living."

Predictions

Davenport: Cowboys

Gagnon: Cowboys

Hanford: Cowboys

Knox: Cowboys

Moton: Cowboys

O'Donnell: Cowboys

Sobleski: Cowboys

ATS Consensus: Cowboys -11

SU Consensus: Cowboys

Score Prediction: Cowboys 35, Commanders 20

San Francisco 49ers (7-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

49ers QB Brock Purdy Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

DK Line: San Francisco -6.5

The San Francisco 49ers have come roaring out of their Week 9 bye, outscoring the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 61-17. On a short week, they'll face the Seattle Seahawks, who have key injuries to monitor before Thursday's contest.

Last week, against the Los Angeles Rams, Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith suffered an elbow injury, but he finished the game after a short period on the sideline. Seattle isn't sure when running back Kenneth Walker III (oblique) will return to action.

On a short turnaround, Smith may not be close to 100 percent, and the Seahawks will likely rely on rookie second-rounder Zach Charbonnet to carry the ground attack.

Knox thinks the 49ers will smell blood on the field Thursday night and add another double-digit win to their 2023 resume.

"The 49ers regained their mojo during the bye week and have won two consecutive games in convincing fashion. Deebo Samuel is healthy, the defense again looks like a playoff-caliber unit, and Brock Purdy was nearly perfect in last week's win over the Bucs—he finished with a 158.3 passer rating, which, for some reason, is the NFL's ceiling.

"San Francisco should be in store for another double-digit victory. Seattle's defense has been too inconsistent, Kenneth Walker III (oblique) is injured, and the Geno Smith-led offense hasn't been as efficient as it was last season. San Francisco is the better team, and the 49ers know that peeking ahead at the Eagles (Week 13) could cost them the top spot in the NFC West."

Predictions

Davenport: 49ers

Gagnon: 49ers

Hanford: 49ers

Knox: 49ers

Moton: 49ers

O'Donnell: 49ers

Sobleski: 49ers

ATS Consensus: 49ers -6.5

SU Consensus: 49ers

Score Prediction: 49ers 33, Seahawks 21

Miami Dolphins (7-3) at New York Jets (4-6)

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

DK Line: Miami -10

After the New York Jets announced their decision to bench quarterback Zach Wilson and start Tim Boyle, oddsmakers pushed the numbers further in favor of the Miami Dolphins.

Boyle has started in only three NFL games, and he's thrown for just three touchdowns and nine interceptions in 18 career contests.

Somehow, the Jets offense may look worse than it has under Wilson. Moton doesn't see how Gang Green will keep pace with the Dolphins' No. 1 scoring attack.

"The Jets have reconfigured their quarterback depth chart, but they're still going to lose this game by a wide margin with Tim Boyle set to start against the Dolphins. Even if Gang Green pulls him for Trevor Siemian during the game, Miami should dominate a squad that struggles to score points.

"The Jets have scored two touchdowns since their Week 7 bye, and Boyle isn't going to move the needle for a punchless offense.

"Last week, Miami had a sloppy offensive performance against the Las Vegas Raiders, turning the ball over three times, but it won't happen again. Gang Green's inept offense will put its defense in bad field position, which will make it easier for the Dolphins to rack up points in a blowout victory."

Predictions

Davenport: Dolphins

Gagnon: Dolphins

Hanford: Dolphins

Knox: Dolphins

Moton: Dolphins

O'Donnell: Dolphins

Sobleski: Dolphins

ATS Consensus: Dolphins -10

SU Consensus: Dolphins

Score Prediction: Dolphins 30, Jets 7

New England Patriots (2-8) at New York Giants (3-8)

Giants RB Saquon Barkley Michael Owens/Getty Images

DK Line: New England -3.5

In Week 11, the New York Giants had a morale-boosting 31-19 win over the Washington Commanders to sweep their division rival for the season. In that outing, Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito had an impressive performance, throwing for 246 yards and three touchdowns.

As of Tuesday, the Giants don't know what they're up against this week because the New England Patriots haven't named their starting quarterback. Mac Jones may need to outshine Bailey Zappe and Will Grier through a week of practice to retain his job.

Nonetheless, oddsmakers have set a line that favors the Patriots by a field goal and a hook on the road. While our consensus leans toward Big Blue, O'Donnell seems skeptical of the spread.

"The Giants' performance last week, albeit against a Washington team whose number they clearly have with an 8-3-1 record in the last six years, was the strongest and most complete we've seen from the team all season," O'Donnell said.

"As a fan, I want to back that even if the temptation of a higher draft pick standing is what my heart desires. And, yeah, 3.5 is a lot of points for the Patriots to lay. Seriously, a lot. In fact, it's their largest spread as a favorite this season and we don't even know who the starting QB will be (at the time of writing). That sends off some alarm bells in my head beyond just the Bill Belichick-owns-the-post-bye-week narrative, though.

"Something is up here, and I refuse to get suckered into jumping on these seemingly gifted points."

Predictions

Davenport: Giants

Gagnon: Giants

Hanford: Patriots

Knox: Giants

Moton: Patriots

O'Donnell: Patriots

Sobleski: Giants

ATS Consensus: Giants +3.5

SU Consensus: Patriots

Score Prediction: Patriots 17, Giants 14

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)

Steelers RB Jaylen Warren Jason Miller/Getty Images

DK Line: Pittsburgh -1

Last Thursday, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury. In his place, fifth-year veteran Jake Browning will take over the offense. In Week 11 against the Baltimore Ravens, Browning completed eight out of 14 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown in relief duty.

Despite the Bengals' unfortunate quarterback situation, oddsmakers only slightly favor the Pittsburgh Steelers in a pick 'em game.

The Steelers offense has been less exciting than watching paint dry, and the team admitted to its issues on that side of the ball when it fired play-caller Matt Canada on Tuesday.

According to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, Pittsburgh elevated running backs coach Eddie Faulkner to the offensive coordinator position and handed play-calling responsibilities to quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan.

Even with the changes, Hanford doesn't expect much from the Steelers offense because of Kenny Pickett's subpar play, but he gave the nod to Pittsburgh to win another low-scoring slugfest.

"It's tough to feel good about either one of these teams. Pittsburgh's offense has been borderline unwatchable under Matt Canada, and while Kenny Pickett has been pretty awful himself, the Steelers get a one-game 'coach boost' here after moving on from their embattled offensive coordinator on Tuesday.

"The Bengals are reeling after losing Joe Burrow for the season, and there's a possibility Minkah Fitzpatrick returns to the Steelers' secondary this week. This game should be all kinds of ugly, similar to last season's overtime Steelers win in Cincinnati, but Pittsburgh rallies around the Canada decision and squeaks out a win on the road to stay in the AFC playoff mix."

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Gagnon: Steelers

Hanford: Steelers

Knox: Steelers

Moton: Steelers

O'Donnell: Steelers

Sobleski: Steelers

ATS Consensus: Steelers -1

SU Consensus: Steelers

Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Bengals 17

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) at Houston Texans (6-4)

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence Mike Carlson/Getty Images

DK Line: Jacksonville -1.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars should have revenge on their minds, but they're going to face a much better Houston Texans squad than they saw in September.

In Week 3, the Jaguars lost 37-17 to the Houston Texans at home, and that's before quarterback C.J. Stroud picked up steam as the obvious favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Our panel gave the consensus nod to the Jaguars, but Knox believes in Stroud to help Houston sweep Jacksonville for the season series.

"Jacksonville has the better record and might be the better team in this matchup. However, the Texans have won three straight and have plenty of momentum. DeMeco Ryans is probably the Coach of the Year front-runner, and C.J. Stroud is a virtual lock for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Houston must be taken very seriously in the AFC playoff race.

"Two things concern me about the Jaguars in this game—their lack of a complementary pass-rusher opposite Josh Allen and a very inconsistent secondary. This should be a closer game than the first meeting, which the Texans won by 20, but I see Stroud exploiting Jacksonville's 29th-ranked pass defense early and often enough to get the win."

Predictions

Davenport: Texans

Gagnon: Jaguars

Hanford: Jaguars

Knox: Texans

Moton: Jaguars

O'Donnell: Jaguars

Sobleski: Texans

ATS Consensus: Jaguars -1.5

SU Consensus: Jaguars

Score Prediction: Jaguars 31, Texans 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5)

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP via Getty Images

DK Line: Indianapolis -2.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts won't generate a lot of buzz, but this matchup features two squads that still have a shot to clinch a playoff berth.

The Buccaneers should be the more desperate team. They've won one game since October 1. Meanwhile, the Colts quietly put together consecutive victories before their Week 11 bye.

Believe it or not, Tampa Bay is tied for the second-best record ATS leaguewide (7-3), which swayed a few of our experts in the Buccaneers' corner.

However, Sobleski believes the Colts' bye week will make a big difference in this matchup. He had the final say in our consensus nod for Indianapolis even with the team's surprising decision to waive All-Pro linebacker Shaq Leonard on Tuesday.

"The Buccaneers have lost five of their last six games. They don't run the ball well enough to exploit the Colts' soft defensive interior. And Indianapolis had two weeks to prepare for this game. The time off should allow the Colts to reassess their approach and get healthier after dealing with multiple key injuries prior to the break in action.

"Furthermore, Jonathan Taylor should now be fully integrated into the offense alongside Zack Moss to form the type of tandem the Colts can ride during what looks like a relatively weak second-half schedule."

Predictions

Davenport: Buccaneers

Gagnon: Colts

Hanford: Colts

Knox: Buccaneers

Moton: Buccaneers

O'Donnell: Colts

Sobleski: Colts

ATS Consensus: Colts -2.5

SU Consensus: Colts

Score Prediction: Colts 24, Buccaneers 21

New Orleans Saints (5-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)

Saints RB Alvin Kamara Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

DK Line: New Orleans -1

The New Orleans Saints have key injuries to check in on as they come out of their bye week. Quarterback Derek Carr is in concussion protocol following a hit he took in Week 10. Head coach Dennis Allen told reporters that wide receiver Michael Thomas and cornerback Marshon Lattimore have injuries that "are gonna take some time."

On Tuesday, the Saints placed Thomas on injured reserve. If Carr doesn't clear concussion protocol, Jameis Winston would likely start in his place, and the Saints could mix in Taysom Hill under center as well.

Bettors should stay away from this matchup until New Orleans posts its final injury report on Friday.

Nonetheless, our crew sided with the Saints with the thought that Carr will play but Thomas and Lattimore will sit out. Gagnon gave the edge to New Orleans because Atlanta has failed to make the most out of home-field advantage in recent weeks.

"The Falcons haven't won a home game since Week 5," Gagnon noted. "They're operating on extra rest, but so is New Orleans. The Saints are also the better team in general, so I'll side with them but wouldn't risk much right now because there are some key New Orleans injuries worth monitoring."

Predictions

Davenport: Saints

Gagnon: Saints

Hanford: Saints

Knox: Saints

Moton: Falcons

O'Donnell: Saints

Sobleski: Saints

ATS Consensus: Saints -1

SU Consensus: Saints

Score Prediction: Saints 27, Falcons 23

Carolina Panthers (1-9) at Tennessee Titans (3-7)

Panthers QB Bryce Young Eakin Howard/Getty Images

DK Line: Tennessee -3.5

In all likelihood, these teams will duke it out in a low-scoring contest because of subpar quarterback play.

Over the last three weeks, Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has thrown for two touchdowns and four interceptions. Tennessee Titans signal-caller Will Levis hasn't flashed since his NFL debut start against the Atlanta Falcons, throwing for two garbage-time touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars and two interceptions since Week 8.

Moton advises bettors to trust the team that can win with its run game.

"Typically, you take the (.5) hook in games with low-scoring teams, but the Titans have a clear advantage on the ground that will allow them to win by at least a touchdown," Moton said.

"The Panthers rank 24th against the run, and they've allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (16) through 11 weeks. Running back Derrick Henry could have a strong performance to revitalize an offense that's averaged 12 points per contest over the last three weeks.

"Titans cover against the Panthers, who have the NFL's worst record ATS at 1-7-2."

Predictions

Davenport: Panthers

Gagnon: Panthers

Hanford: Panthers

Knox: Titans

Moton: Titans

O'Donnell: Panthers

Sobleski: Titans

ATS Consensus: Panthers +3.5

SU Consensus: Titans

Score Prediction: Titans 20, Panthers 17

Los Angeles Rams (4-6) at Arizona Cardinals (2-9)

Rams QB Matthew Stafford Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

DK Line: Los Angeles -1

Last week, the Los Angeles Rams pulled off a slight upset over the Seattle Seahawks, winning 17-16 at home, but they're a banged-up squad that's hanging onto its playoff hopes by a thread.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, wide receiver Cooper Kupp sprained his ankle Sunday, and the Rams may exercise caution with him because of his history of ankle injuries.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford said he'll continue to "rehab" his sprained UCL in his right thumb and didn't blame his mixed-bag Week 11 performance on the injury.

Despite questions and concerns about Stafford and Kupp, most of our crew sided with the Rams. Gagnon simply doesn't believe in a bottom-tier Arizona Cardinals squad that couldn't beat the Houston Texans in arguably C.J. Stroud's worst pro outing.

"Week 11 provided a reminder that even with Kyler Murray, this Arizona Cardinals team is no bueno," Gagnon quipped.

"C.J. Stroud throws three picks and you still fall behind 21-10? The Rams still have something to play for following a Week 11 victory over the Seahawks, so a veteran team should take care of business in a virtual pick'em here."

Predictions

Davenport: Rams

Gagnon: Rams

Hanford: Rams

Knox: Rams

Moton: Cardinals

O'Donnell: Cardinals

Sobleski: Rams

ATS Consensus: Rams -1

SU Consensus: Rams

Score Prediction: Rams 26, Cardinals 24

Cleveland Browns (7-3) at Denver Broncos (5-5)

Broncos QB Russell Wilson Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

DK Line: Denver -2.5

The Denver Broncos have reinvented themselves in the middle of the season. After a 1-5 start, they've won four consecutive games, which include impressive wins over the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings.

Most of our experts have bought into the Broncos' midseason surge with Russell Wilson at the helm, and they picked Denver to win and cover the spread.

However, Sobleski pointed out two glaring concerns with the Broncos, one on each side of the ball. He's the lone wolf who took the Browns to win outright.

"Too many will be lulled into a false sense of security to select the Broncos because A) Sean Payton's squad has won four straight games and B) fifth-round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson continues to be the Browns' starting quarterback. This game is not a particularly good matchup for Denver, though.

"First, the Browns will establish the run with the combination of Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt and DTR. The Broncos rank dead last against opposing rushing games.

"Second, Russell Wilson is the league's fourth-most sacked quarterback. The Browns feature arguably the league's best defensive front. Myles Garrett will attack the weak links and expose those offensive linemen."

Predictions

Davenport: Broncos

Gagnon: Broncos

Hanford: Broncos

Knox: Broncos

Moton: Broncos

O'Donnell: Broncos

Sobleski: Browns

ATS Consensus: Broncos -2.5

SU Consensus: Broncos

Score Prediction: Broncos 23, Browns 17

Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-6)

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Jamie Squire/Getty Images

DK Line: Kansas City -9.5

The Kansas City Chiefs must feel sick after their 21-17 Monday night loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Patrick Mahomes threw an interception in the end zone, Travis Kelce fumbled inside the 15-yard line, and they had a number of critical drops.

On Sunday, the Chiefs will face a rejuvenated Las Vegas Raiders squad that went on the road and battled with the Miami Dolphins but came up short in a 20-13 loss.

The Chiefs have a five-game winning streak over the Raiders and won by 18-plus points in three of those contests. Moton expects Kansas City to jump off to a quick start against Las Vegas and hold on to a double-digit lead through the final whistle.

"The Raiders will likely see a dialed-in Chiefs team at Allegiant Stadium. The reigning champions had a few egregious errors that cost them the game last Monday. Though Kansas City struggles to score in the second half, Las Vegas has the same issue. These clubs are in the bottom three in points scored in the second half per game this season.

"The Chiefs could build and hold a 10-point lead because they can put points on the board early and trust their defense to shut down the Raiders' 26th-ranked scoring offense that's led by rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell. Kansas City averages the second-most first-half points leaguewide, and it fields the No. 3 scoring defense.

"We may not see too much scoring in the second half of this game, but Kansas City could have a sizable lead by halftime. In that scenario, O'Connell isn't equipped to dig Las Vegas out of a big deficit while going against a stifling defense. In his last two starts, he's thrown for two touchdowns and four interceptions."

Predictions

Davenport: Chiefs

Gagnon: Raiders

Hanford: Chiefs

Knox: Raiders

Moton: Chiefs

O'Donnell: Chiefs

Sobleski: Raiders

ATS Consensus: Chiefs -9.5

SU Consensus: Chiefs

Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Raiders 16

Buffalo Bills (6-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts Jamie Squire/Getty Images

DK Line: Philadelphia -3.5

The Philadelphia Eagles can't celebrate their Super Bowl 57 rematch win over the Kansas City Chiefs for too long. On a short week, they'll host a re-energized Buffalo Bills squad that thumped the New York Jets 32-6 in Week 11.

Last week, Buffalo fired Ken Dorsey and elevated quarterbacks coach Joe Brady to the offensive coordinator position. Perhaps the Bills needed a shakeup to get their offense back on the right track, but it's worth noting that Josh Allen has thrown an interception in seven consecutive contests.

Also, the Bills have a banged-up secondary. Micah Hyde, Taylor Rapp, Taron Johnson, Dane Jackson and Cam Lewis suffered injuries last week. Moreover, Buffalo will continue to play without key starters in cornerback Tre'Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano for the remainder of the campaign.

Our crew thinks the Bills have too much to overcome against arguably the league's best team, but O'Donnell stands alone with the road underdog.

"I picked this game before the Eagles stunned the Chiefs in Arrowhead, but it's still not enough to sway me to the other side with the rest of the panel. Philly is the better team, but I'm in a position to double down on Buffalo trying to live up to expectations by winning a game of this magnitude.

"The Bills have some major issues to cover up, and that's not lost on me. But I'm still a sucker for Josh Allen and will roll with him almost any time I'm getting points."

Predictions

Davenport: Eagles

Gagnon: Eagles

Hanford: Eagles

Knox: Eagles

Moton: Eagles

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Eagles

ATS Consensus: Eagles -3.5

SU Consensus: Eagles

Score Prediction: Eagles 28, Bills 23

Baltimore Ravens (8-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson Patrick Smith/Getty Images

DK Line: Baltimore -4.5

The Los Angeles Chargers have a sub-.500 record, but they've lost five of their six games by three or fewer points this season.

Clearly, the Baltimore Ravens are the better team and should win outright, but the Chargers' tendency to keep games interesting for better or worse deserves some consideration.

Also, Ravens All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews suffered an ankle injury and wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. went down with a shoulder injury last week. The former is highly unlikely to suit up for Week 12.

Moton didn't overthink this matchup and rolled with the Ravens.

"Somehow, the Chargers find ways to lose games. Two weeks ago, they lost despite scoring on their last five offensive drives because the defense gave up 41 points. On Sunday, Keenan Allen dropped a walk-in touchdown pass and Austin Ekeler fumbled near the goal line," Moton said.

"After last week's 23-20 loss to the Green Bay Packers, head coach Brandon Staley told reporters he will continue to call the defensive plays, which is encouraging for the Ravens and anyone who lays the points with Baltimore. Through 11 weeks, the Chargers have given up the most passing yards per game, and they're tied for fifth in rushing scores allowed (12).

"Even though the Ravens will come into this game with a banged-up pass-catching group, they'll bulldoze the Chargers' interior defense—which will sorely miss Joey Bosa—for a comfortable road victory. Baltimore has won seven of its eight games by seven or more points."

Predictions

Davenport: Ravens

Gagnon: Chargers

Hanford: Ravens

Knox: Ravens

Moton: Ravens

O'Donnell: Ravens

Sobleski: Ravens

ATS Consensus: Ravens -4.5

SU Consensus: Ravens

Score Prediction: Ravens 31, Chargers 20

Chicago Bears (3-8) at Minnesota Vikings (6-5)

Vikings WR Jordan Addison Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

DK Line: Minnesota -3.5

Last week, the Minnesota Vikings' five-game winning streak came to an end in a 21-20 loss to the Denver Broncos. As was the case early in the season, the Vikings lost the turnover battle in a sloppy performance.

Still in the NFC wild-card picture, Minnesota will look to shake off a loss in a division matchup with the Chicago Bears, who nearly upset the Detroit Lions last week.

Our experts like the fact that the Vikings have a 7-3-1 record ATS, but Davenport doesn't trust Minnesota to cover the hook with Bears signal-caller Justin Fields healthy for this Monday Night Football battle.

"This will probably bring a mob of Minnesotans to my house on mooseback with pitchforks and torches, you betcha. But isn't Joshua Dobbs essentially kind of a poor man's Justin Fields?" Davenport pondered.

"The Vikings may well rest Justin Jefferson through the bye, and I don't trust either of these defenses. So with the advantage of the hook, I'll take the better quarterback and the points given that the Vikings apparently can't play a game decided by more than three points ever."

Predictions

Davenport: Bears

Gagnon: Bears

Hanford: Vikings

Knox: Vikings

Moton: Vikings

O'Donnell: Bears

Sobleski: Vikings

ATS Consensus: Vikings -3.5

SU Consensus: Vikings

Score Prediction: Vikings 26, Bears 21

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