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The Top 10 Landing Spots for White Sox SP Dylan Cease amid MLB Trade Rumors

Zachary D. Rymer

Atop the Chicago White Sox's starting rotation is a guy who was a Cy Young Award finalist just last year, but maybe not for much longer.

His name is Dylan Cease, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported on Sunday that the team is "will listen to offers" for the right-hander in the wake of its 101-loss season.

From Major League Baseball's since-cancelled GM Meetings on Wednesday, new White Sox general manager Chris Getz all but confirmed that the team is open for business by saying: "There are no untouchables."

This conceivably means multi-talented center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and slugger Eloy Jiménez could also be available. But Cease is certainly the most practical trade chip on the South Side.

So, let's discuss his value and get to speculating on and ranking his top 10 landing spots.

What Is Cease's Trade Value?

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Cease showed in 2022 just how good he can be.

He made 32 starts and logged a 2.20 ERA over 184 innings, with 227 strikeouts. Though he finished second in the voting, he finished ahead of American League Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander in rWAR.

On either side of that one great year, however, are four middling ones. That includes this past season, which Cease finished with a 4.58 ERA while adding 79 walks to his league-leading 259 since 2020.

The 27-year-old also lost 1.2 mph off his average fastball from 2022 and 2023. And while it was still good, his slider was not the elite pitch in '23 that it had been the previous year, when it had the highest run value of any pitch.

There's also the complicating factor that scarcity is not an issue this winter. The free-agent market features starters such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray and more, while Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow are likewise trade candidates.

Yet the White Sox do have some leverage stemming from the reality that they don't need to trade Cease. He's under club control through 2025, so they can hold out for an offer to their liking and keep him if one doesn't come.

Recent trades of José Berríos and Pablo López offer some clues as to what the White Sox might command for Cease. The former netted the Minnesota Twins two of the Toronto Blue Jays' five best prospects, while the latter scored Luis Arraez for the Miami Marlins.

After first touching on a few honorable mentions, this is the part where we start pitching potential trade partners and packages for Cease, ranked in order from least plausible to most plausible.

Note: Starting pitching WAR is courtesy of Baseball Reference and projected 2024 rotations are courtesy of RosterResource, via FanGraphs.

Honorable Mentions

Carlos Rodón Mike Stobe/Getty Images

Atlanta

Atlanta needs to upgrade its starting rotation this winter, but it's lacking in spare position players. That's where the White Sox's needs are strongest after their hitters ranked dead-last in rWAR this season.

Chicago Cubs

Marcus Stroman opened a hole in the Cubs' rotation by opting out of his contract, but pursuing a reunion with Cease—who they originally drafted in 2014—doesn't need to be a priority relative to adding the power bats they require.

New York Yankees

Unless they mean to give up on Carlos Rodón as a top-of-the-rotation starter, a new starter is more of a nice-to-have for the Yankees. Like the Cubs, what they really need to do is focus on their offense.

10. Houston Astros

Justin Verlander Ron Jenkins/MLB Photos via Getty Images

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 7.8 (21st)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Justin Verlander, LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Hunter Brown, RHP J.P. France

The Astros are worth bringing up as a possibility for Cease if for no other reason than they've coveted him in the past. Jon Heyman even referred to him as Houston's "dream" acquisition during an MLB Network segment prior to this year's Aug. 1 trade deadline.

This was before the Astros reunited with Verlander, but even his arrival only brought so much stability to Houston's starting rotation. At the least, pursuing Cease now would mean pursuing insurance behind Verlander and Valdez.

Trade Proposal: Houston Astros get RHP Dylan Cease; Chicago White Sox get OF Chas McCormick, RHP J.P. France

This trade would result in the White Sox getting two players they could plug in right away, and both McCormick (through 2026) and France (through 2028) would also come with ample club control.

But would the White Sox really trade Cease for two late bloomers who are already in their late 20s? It's a reach, and it's hard to conjure alternative trade packages. Per B/R's Joel Reuter, Houston's farm system is the worst in MLB.

9. San Francisco Giants

Logan Webb Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (T-11th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Logan Webb, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RHP Ross Stripling, LHP Kyle Harrison, RHP Keaton Winn

The Giants' rotation may have been a borderline top-10 unit in terms of rWAR this year, but strikeouts were in short supply throughout and Webb was the only individual starter who was reliable from start to finish.

Alex Cobb mostly had a good year, but a hip injury hindered him in the second half and has since required surgery that will result in him missing the start of next season. There can be no doubt, then, that starting pitching must be a priority for the Giants.

Trade Proposal: San Francisco Giants get RHP Dylan Cease; Chicago White Sox get CF Luis Matos, 1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge

Though Matos' stock has been a little topsy-turvy in the last two seasons, he entered 2022 ranked as high as the No. 30 prospect in MLB at Baseball Prospectus, and he hit .331 in the high minors this season. Eldridge, meanwhile, was the No. 16 pick in this year's draft.

Even setting aside the legit question of whether the White Sox would do this deal, though, whether the Giants would is an even better question. Since they have the money to simply buy pitching, well, why not just do that?

8. New York Mets

Kodai Senga Elsa/Getty Images

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 12.0 (6th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kodai Senga, LHP José Quintana, RHP Tylor Megill, LHP Joey Lucchesi, RHP José Butto

A funny thing happened after the Mets offloaded Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer this summer: Their starting pitchers' ERA actually dropped, from 4.46 to 3.73.

Still, the rotation looks a little shallow underneath Senga. Nobody knows that as well as Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns, who said Tuesday that adding starting pitching "will be a priority this offseason."

Trade Proposal: New York Mets get RHP Dylan Cease; Chicago White Sox get SS Ronny Mauricio, OF Drew Gilbert

Now we're talking. At least from Chicago's perspective, that is. This trade would net them two players ranked by Reuter as the Mets' No. 2 and No. 4 prospects, not to mention the No. 51 and No. 75 talents in all of MLB.

But would the Mets do this? It's doubtful. Revamping their farm system was part of the reason they traded Verlander, Scherzer and others this summer. Rather than immediately diminish it, they're another team that should look to simply buy pitching.

7. Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Wheeler Brian Garfinkel/MLB Photos via Getty Images

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 13.6 (4th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Zack Wheeler, LHP Ranger Suárez, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Cristopher Sánchez, LHP Josh Fleming

The Phillies had one of the best rotations in baseball this season, but there's now an Aaron Nola-sized hole in it after he filed for free agency.

Bringing Nola back is one of the Phillies' plans, and Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that signing Sonny Gray is the backup if that fails. But with the club's payroll already projected north of $200 million in 2024, there may be some sense in trading for a starter instead.

Trade Proposal: Philadelphia Phillies get RHP Dylan Cease; Chicago White Sox get RHP Mick Abel, OF Justin Crawford

This would see the Phillies retain Andrew Painter while giving up their second- and third-ranked prospects. Both would be good gets for the White Sox, as Abel is one of MLB's top pitching prospects and Crawford is a chip off the ol' block.

It's far from a foolproof concept, though. Remember, it's position player depth the White Sox need. There's also the question of whether the Phillies should deal any of their prospects at a time when most of their core stars are over 30.

6. St. Louis Cardinals

Miles Mikolas Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 4.1 (28th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Miles Mikolas, LHP Steven Matz, LHP Zack Thompson, RHP Dakota Hudson, LHP Matthew Liberatore

That the Cardinals need starting pitching is a point nobody will argue. And they specifically need someone who can strike batters out, as only Colorado Rockies starters whiffed batters less frequently in 2023.

Cease is a fit to this extent, and the White Sox could otherwise ask for a worse trading partner than the Cardinals. They may be poor in pitching, but they're somewhat famously wealthy in young hitters right now.

Trade Proposal: St. Louis Cardinals get RHP Dylan Cease; Chicago White Sox get INF/OF Brendan Donovan, OF Alec Burleson

In this trade, the White Sox would get two major leaguers with solid credentials. Donovan was a Gold Glover and Rookie of the Year finalist in 2022, while Burleson showed a knack for contact in striking out only 13.0 percent of the time in 2023.

Yet neither is star material, which makes them unlike, say, Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn or Nolan Gorman. All three figure to be more or less untouchable, in which case the Cardinals are better off seeking pitching on the open market than inquiring about Cease.

5. Los Angeles Dodgers

Bobby Miller Harry How/Getty Images

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 6.9 (23rd)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Bobby Miller, RHP Ryan Pepiot, LHP Ryan Yarbrough, RHP Emmet Sheehan

The Dodgers' starting pitching was a weak spot even when Clayton Kershaw and Lance Lynn were in the mix, and now the former is recovering from shoulder surgery and the latter is a free agent after the team declined his $18 million option for 2024.

Per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers are expected to pursue Corbin Burnes if the Milwaukee Brewers make him available. If that indicates an appetite for trades in general, why not one for Cease instead?

Trade Proposal: Los Angeles Dodgers get RHP Dylan Cease; Chicago White Sox get C Dalton Rushing, 2B/3B Michael Busch

Though the Dodgers and White Sox generally line up well as trading partners, the latter might be especially keen to deal if the former were to offer something along these lines. Catcher and second base are among their biggest weaknesses.

But would the Dodgers trade Busch when he's not necessarily blocked at the major league level? It's suspect. And given the team has had about $100 million come off its books, free agency may be its best play if it can't get Burnes on the trade market.

4. San Diego Padres

Joe Musgrove Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 12.3 (5th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Yu Darvish, RHP Matt Waldron, RHP Pedro Avila, LHP Jay Groome

The Padres actually led MLB with a 3.69 ERA this season, but Blake Snell, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are free agents. To boot, Musgrove is coming off a shoulder injury while Darvish is coming off one to his elbow.

Starting pitching is thus a major area of need, and it may have to come on the cheap while the Padres are looking to slash payroll by about $50 million. As such, they perhaps should prioritize the trade market over free agency.

Trade Proposal: San Diego Padres get RHP Dylan Cease; Chicago White Sox get LHP Robby Snelling, OF Samuel Zavala

The White Sox would probably love to get Ethan Salas or Jackson Merrill, but one assumes neither is leaving San Diego's system. They're only the No. 5 and No. 13 prospects in all of MLB, after all.

Even still, this deal would net the White Sox MLB's No. 31 and No. 93 talents. Only Zavala would fulfill the club's need for position players, but it could be hard for them to say no to Snelling. He's the best left-handed pitching prospect not named Kyle Harrison.

3. Boston Red Sox

Chris Sale Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.4 (10th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Chris Sale, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Brayan Bello, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Tanner Houck

How Red Sox starters landed in the top 10 for rWAR is a good question. Their starters posted a 4.68 ERA and didn't even average five innings per start.

Newly minted chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is thus justified in prioritizing starting pitching, and there's no reason he can't target help on the free-agent and trade markets. The Red Sox have both money to spend and a surplus of young hitters.

Trade Proposal: Boston Red Sox get RHP Dylan Cease; Chicago White Sox get SS/CF Ceddanne Rafaela, OF Miguel Bleis

Among said young hitters, it's hard to imagine Boston parting with Marcelo Mayer or Roman Anthony, who rank as the No. 11 and No. 22 prospects in MLB. Rafaela and Bleis, on the other hand, are players the Red Sox can probably afford to give up.

For the White Sox, this would mean getting Boston's third- and fifth-best prospects and the No. 53 and No. 79 talents for all of MLB. Maybe the only catch is that they'd have to wait on Bleis. He's only 19 years old and far from any kind of finished product.

2. Baltimore Orioles

Kyle Bradish Greg Fiume/Getty Images

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 9.9 (13th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kyle Bradish, RHP Grayson Rodriguez, LHP John Means, RHP Dean Kremer, LHP Cole Irvin

Starting pitching was regarded as a weakness for the Orioles for most of 2023, but that changed as their starters came around with a 3.74 ERA in the second half. However, they still need a workhorse to fill the hole left by Kyle Gibson's free agency.

Cease would be an upgrade over Gibson, and that's just one reason the O's should have their eye on him. They generally aren't big players in free agency, and any money they don't spend there could, hypothetically, go toward extending their core stars.

Trade Proposal: Baltimore Orioles get RHP Dylan Cease; Chicago White Sox get 1B/OF Heston Kjerstad and C Samuel Basallo

Yet another reason the trade market makes sense for Baltimore is that the club has more young hitters than it has room for. Speculatively speaking, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday may be its only untouchables.

There are thus any number of deals that could work between the Orioles and White Sox. This is just one, though it would have the added benefit for Chicago of filling an immediate need in the outfield and a more long-term need at catcher.

1. Cincinnati Reds

Hunter Greene Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 5.0 (26th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Hunter Greene, LHP Andrew Abbott, RHP Graham Ashcraft, LHP Brandon Williamson, LHP Nick Lodolo

While Baltimore's starting pitching only got better as the year went along, the Reds' rotation was a problem from start to finish. Their starters posted at least a 5.55 ERA in all but one of the season's six months.

That the Reds won 82 games anyway makes one wonder whether they would have made the playoffs if they'd had even one reliable starter. Alas, their history of frugality may rule out them finding a suitable answer to this issue in free agency.

Trade Proposal: Cincinnati Reds get RHP Dylan Cease; Chicago White Sox get 2B Jonathan India, LF/1B Spencer Steer

It's a good thing, then, that the Reds are like the Orioles in that they have a surplus of young hitters to barter with. Elly De La Cruz is presumably off-limits, but it's out there that India, at least, is drawing a crowd of interested suitors.

The 2021 National League Rookie of the Year would fit nicely at second base on the White Sox, while Steer would charge their lineup after leading all rookies in runs batted in this year. As these two also have eight years of club control between them, what's not to like?

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

   

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