At this time a year ago, the Utah Jazz sat atop the Western Conference, followed closely by the Portland Trail Blazers and Dallas Mavericks.

Not a single one of those teams even made the play-in tournament.

Wins count equally whether they're compiled in November or April, but the absence of those three hot starters from last year's postseason shows we're still living in small-sample territory. Injuries will arise, shooting will regress and tanking may eventually become a priority.

At the same time, some teams that rocket out of the gate sustain their pace. The championship-winning Denver Nuggets were right behind the Jazz a year ago. In the East, the Milwaukee Bucks started out a league-best 9-0 and finished first in the conference. (Don't ask how the playoffs went for them.)

The point is: Some strong starts are legitimate, and some aren't. Let's see if we can tell the difference.

Boston Celtics

The search for nits to pick requires a pretty deep dive into the Boston Celtics' numbers.

The ultra-skeptical could cite Boston's No. 27 rank in opponent turnover rate as a sign its defense isn't disruptive enough, and it's also true that teams are only shooting 34.1 percent from deep against the Celtics. That stat could trend toward the league average and knock Boston's defense down a peg from its current No. 2 ranking.

Then again, Boston has been uncommonly good at suppressing opponent three-point accuracy for years, finishing third and second in 2022-23 and 2021-22, respectively.

The simplest analysis is almost definitely the best in this case: Boston is 5-1 and leading the field in net rating (plus-16.5) because it's the best team in the East and deserves consideration right alongside the defending-champion Denver Nuggets for leaguewide primacy.

Thanks to Jayson Tatum cranking out 30.5 points per game on a 54.9/42.0/82.4 shooting split, Kristaps Porziņģis raining fire from everywhere and the Derrick White-Jrue Holiday tandem delivering the best-in-class backcourt defense many expected, these guys look like legitimate juggernauts.

The schedule will toughen up, and the lack of consistent contributors outside of Boston's top six could produce some pullback. But the Celtics are playing exactly as advertised. Nothing about their start feels flimsy.

If anything, this opening run suggests the top tier in the East won't be shared by Boston, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Philadelphia or anyone else. It belongs to Boston alone at this point.

Verdict: Buy

Dallas Mavericks

As expected, the Dallas Mavericks are getting the job done on offense. They racked up at least 125 points in each of their first three games (all wins), and they currently rank fourth in scoring efficiency overall.

Luka Dončić's presence means the buckets will keep coming in bunches for the Mavs whether or not Kyrie Irving, who has already missed a pair of games and is shooting 24.1 percent from three-point range, is involved. Dončić is currently putting up 31.6 points per game and is within spitting distance of a pace that'd make him the third player in history to average at least 30.0 points, 9.0 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game.

It's the defense that seems iffy.

First-year center Dereck Lively II has been a revelation, far exceeding expectations on both ends. He's already compiling a highlight reel for his imminent All-Rookie campaign.

Despite the flashes he's shown, Lively can't be expected to anchor a high-end defense in his debut season. Dallas is woefully short on shutdown wings and will always have exploitable targets for opponents to attack when Dončić and Irving share the floor.

Five years from now, Lively might have the know-how to compensate for his teammates' shortcomings. But it's too early to ask that of a 19-year-old.

Even with Lively exceeding expectations, the Mavs rank just 18th in defensive efficiency and are allowing opponents to finish more efficiently at the rim than every team but the tanktastic Washington Wizards. It's also worth noting that the Mavericks have mostly beaten up on bad teams. They suffered a rude awakening against the Denver Nuggets in their first In-Season Tournament tilt, falling 125-114.

Dallas can sustain its offensive onslaught, but it'll give back most of what it gets on the other end. Despite a strong start, this still feels like a one-way team destined to finish just a few games above .500.

Verdict: Sell

Denver Nuggets

A Nov. 1 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves assured the Denver Nuggets won't go undefeated in their title-defending season. But with Nikola Jokić somehow leveling up again, the Nuggets remain the best bet to finish atop the West and return to the Finals.

Nothing about the 2023-24 campaign has done anything to disabuse us of the notion that Denver, unsatisfied with just one ring, is on the warpath for another.

Start with Jokić, who is showing a level of mastery almost without precedent. His full-season numbers are absurd—28.4 points, 12.9 rebounds and 8.4 assists on 69.1 percent true shooting through Denver's first eight games—but it's his ability to dominate at will that stands out. Jokić is essentially choosing when to snuff out the opposition's hopes.

Sometimes he does it in the first half.

Others, he waits until after the break.

It's become cliché to cite Jokić's unmatched processing speed, to point out how he sees the on-court action unfolding in advance. But how else do you describe someone who can anticipate the movement of nine other players so easily that a three-quarter-court inbound alley-oop comes off looking casual...and easy?

Jokić has help. Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both shooting better than 40.0 percent from deep, Aaron Gordon is filling all the gaps as a passer and duck-in specialist, and Denver's defense is performing at a top-10 clip.

Murray's hamstring injury is a concern, and Denver, as usual, is getting badly outscored whenever its superstar center is off the court. But it's hard to doubt anything about the Nuggets when they have the best player in the world at the peak of his powers.

What we're seeing in 2023-24: A two-time MVP making the game look easier than ever en route to what'll likely be a third such honor in four years. And if we learned anything last season, Jokić elevating his squad all year is eminently sustainable.

Verdict: Buy

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets each have one loss on the season, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are responsible for both of them.

Anthony Edwards is in full Destructo Mode, as evidenced by his 38-point eruption in Monday's victory over Boston, and Karl-Anthony Towns is accepting his second-fiddle role with a willingness that bodes well. Overall, Minnesota is fifth in net rating at plus-8.2 points per 100 possessions. Considering the strength of the Wolves' schedule, that number might even undersell the quality of its start.

We have to work a little harder to separate signal from noise this early in the year, though, and a close look at those signature wins over arguably the NBA's top two teams reveals a crack in Minnesota's facade. Denver shot 18.2 percent on its long-range tries against the Wolves, while Boston hit just 28.2 percent of its triples.

The Wolves currently own the top defensive rating in the league, which may not seem like a complete fluke with Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels anchoring the paint and perimeter. But Minnesota is suppressing offense mostly by good luck; opponents are hitting just 32.4 percent of their threes, the third-lowest mark in the league. Last season, the Wolves allowed teams to shoot 37.3 percent from deep, which ranked 23rd leaguewide.

Typically, opponent accuracy on long jumpers is tough to control. That makes Minnesota's defense-driven start look more than a little suspect.

If healthy, the Wolves should post a top-10 offense and make a push for a win total in the high 40s. But their league-best defense through the opening few weeks isn't worth buying just yet.

Verdict: Sell

Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors are living an upside-down existence in 2023-24, as their vaunted first unit struggles to find its footing while a revamped second group does the unthinkable by winning the minutes in which Stephen Curry sits.

Last year (and for virtually every year of his career), Curry's presence on the bench coincided with the disappearances of leads and the digging of holes. In amassing a 6-2 mark with five road wins (Golden State had just 11 victories away from home all of last year), the Warriors' net rating is plus-8.7 points per 100 possessions without Curry on the court. That number was minus-2.0 in 2022-23 and minus-2.4 when they won the title in 2021-22.

The starting five, which posted a league-best (among lineups with at least 500 possessions) plus-22.1 net rating in 2022-23, is getting hammered. An almost mirror-image reversal has Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney losing their minutes by 19.6 points per 100 possessions.

The question of whether to buy or sell Golden State's start is actually pretty simple. It depends on whether you believe the best unit in the league last year is now the worst. If that's the case, and if you're not convinced that Chris Paul (62 assists to six turnovers) can continue leading a dominant second group that also includes Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga and Dario Sarić, then the Warriors are done for.

However, if you're persuaded the starters will eventually return to form, drop-off from the reserves won't matter.

And if the Curry-led groups dominate more often as the backups also build leads? Well, then it might be time to start talking about a fifth title in the dynasty.

Verdict: Buy

Philadelphia 76ers

If it seems like Tyrese Maxey's rise from third option to All-NBA-caliber lead guard happened quickly, remember who it is we're dealing with. The Philadelphia 76ers ascendent star is speed personified.

He does everything fast.

To breakneck transition bursts, Maxey has added capable half-court offensive orchestration and remarkable ball security. The 23-year-old cracked the 30-point mark in each of Philly's first two games, has posted a break-even-or-better plus-minus in every contest so far and even logged his first career 20-point, 10-assist effort in a 12-point win over the Phoenix Suns on Nov. 4. He added his second in the Sixers' next game, a breezy win over the Wizards.

Sure, Joel Embiid continues to play at an MVP level. But Maxey's readiness to take over for the departed James Harden has as much to do with the Sixers' early success as any other single factor. With him running the offense, Philadelphia's transition frequency is spiking. The Sixers are following Maxey's lead (and perhaps new head coach Nick Nurse's directives), running far more often off live rebounds and turnovers.

Embiid gives the Sixers an elite option against set defenses, but this unleashed version of Maxey allows them to capitalize on scattered situations as well. With that new wrinkle and solid chip-in efforts from Kelly Oubre Jr. and Tobias Harris—both of whom shot at least 40.0 percent from three and averaged over 18.0 points across Philadelphia's first six games—nothing about this 5-1 start feels shaky.

Verdict: Buy

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Nov. 7. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.