NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images

Power Tankings: 7 Teams That Will Be in Play for the No. 1 Overall Pick

Adam Gretz

Some teams open the NHL season expecting to compete for the Stanley Cup.

Others have their sights set a little lower and just want to earn a trip to the playoffs.

Then there are those that have an entirely different outlook—at least as far as their fans are concerned.

Those are the teams that should be most in play for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NHL draft.

These are the Power Tankings.

Unfortunately for the seven teams that we see as having the best chance to win the draft lottery, there is no Connor Bedard-type prospect in this year's class. That does not mean there isn't franchise-changing player for the team that wins the top pick.

Boston University forward Macklin Celebrini is the early favorite to go No. 1 overall, while the rest of the top part of the draft is expected to be heavy on defensemen.

7. Columbus Blue Jackets

Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen Jason Mowry/Getty Images

The Columbus Blue Jackets have spent the past two years operating like a team that was only one or two pieces away from serious Stanley Cup contention.

The harsh reality is they are several players away from playoff contention, let alone a championship.

That is not to say this team is completely hopeless.

Patrik Laine and Johnny Gaudreau are top-line offensive talents, and they do have some really exciting young center depth that was greatly improved in the draft with the selection of Adam Fantilli. Fantilli might be the most exciting prospect that has ever joined the Blue Jackets organization.

But a lot of that center depth is still largely unproven as top-line NHL talents, while they still have some major questions all over the lineup.

Columbus was one of the worst defensive teams in the league last season and worked to address that with the trades for Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov. They should help, as should the return of Zach Werenski after he missed almost all of last season with a shoulder injury, but it is probably not going to be enough in a tough Metropolitan Division and Eastern Conference.

The other elephant in the room is that Columbus has still not done anything to meaningfully address a goalie situation that has been among the league's worst the past two seasons. Since the start of 2021-22, Columbus has ranked 31st as a team in five-on-five save percentage and 28th in all-situations save percentage. That is a problem.

6. Anaheim Ducks

Ducks GM Pat Verbeek Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

The Anaheim Ducks have some really enticing young talent, with 2023 No. 2 overall pick Leo Carlsson joining a core that already includes Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry and Mason McTavish. The latter three have already shown a ton of promise at the NHL level, while Zegras and McTavish could be on the verge of breakout years offensively.

The Ducks should also get a lift on the blue line this season with the return of a healthy Jamie Drysdale after he was limited to eight games a year ago because of a shoulder injury.

After acquiring Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome a year ago in free agency, Anaheim made another big move for a veteran this offseason by signing former Lightning forward Alex Killorn to a long-term deal.

Those three, combined with the young guys mentioned above, should provide the Ducks with a formidable forward group that will give them a chance on most nights.

The problem will be the fact that they are not a particularly strong defensive team and there is a very real chance that veteran John Gibson is no longer a useful starting goalie.

No team allowed more expected goals per 60 minutes last season during five-on-five play than the Ducks' 3.41, and nobody was even particularly close to them. The next lowest team was Columbus at 3.02 expected goals against. That means the gap between Anaheim in 32nd place and the next-worst team was as big as the gap between the 31st and 14th teams.

That is a problem that is probably not going to be rectified with a new coach, the return of Drysdale and some marginal additions in the offseason.

5. Arizona Coyotes

Darrian Traynor/Getty Images

To say this has been a long process for the Arizona Coyotes would be an understatement.

But slowly but surely, things are starting to fall into place for them.

They have a legitimate top-line star in Clayton Keller. They have some solid veterans in Nick Schmaltz and Lawson Crouse, whom they added to this offseason with the acquisitions of Jason Zucker, Matt Dumba, Sean Durzi and Alexander Kerfoot.

The most encouraging development of them all, though, is the young talent that is starting to arrive.

Matias Maccelli had an outstanding rookie year, and they have a potential superstar set to make his debut this season with rookie Logan Cooley arriving. There was concern that Cooley was going to go back to the NCAA, but he opted to turn pro and give the Coyotes what could be a legitimate cornerstone young talent.

It is a roster, on paper anyway, that looks significantly stronger than it did going into the 2022-23 season, especially on defense thanks to the additions of Dumba and Durzi.

But for as improved as the Coyotes should be, they are still probably one of the weaker rosters in the NHL and are playing in a division with the reigning Stanley Cup champions (Vegas) and a couple of bona fide title contenders (Edmonton and Los Angeles).

They might not be in the San Jose or Chicago tier at this point, but they only marginally ahead of them.

4. Montreal Canadiens

Canadiens GM Kent Hughes David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Montreal Canadiens have a couple of really intriguing young talents who could be on the verge of a breakout, including winger Cole Caufield and center Nick Suzuki. They have also loaded up their organization with high draft picks in recent years and have given themselves what could be a strong foundation.

But even if Caufield and Suzuki break out this season and become stars, they will not have a lot of help.

The Canadiens are also playing in what might be the toughest division in hockey with Toronto, Tampa Bay, Boston and Florida at the top, as well as rapidly improving teams in Buffalo, Detroit and Ottawa.

All seven of those teams have better rosters than the Canadiens on paper, and it is hard to envision a scenario in which Montreal does not finish in last place in the Atlantic Division for a third consecutive year.

The Canadiens have an extremely young defense that might have to deal with some growing pains and have lacked a true No. 1 goalie since Carey Price's playing days ended.

The Canadiens might have some regret regarding their most recent No. 1 pick, as Juraj Slafkovsky has gone through some early growing pains, but they might get another crack at it this season.

3. Philadelphia Flyers

Flyers GM Daniel Briere Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Philadelphia Flyers head coach John Tortorella will squeeze every ounce of talent he can out of this roster and might even get a few extra points than their talent level would otherwise bring. But he is not going to be able to squeeze enough out of them to avoid being one of the league's bottom-tier teams.

The Flyers have at least seemed to acknowledge the idea of a rebuild and shed some significant veterans this offseason by not re-signing James van Riemsdyk and then trading Ivan Provorv and Kevin Hayes for cap relief and future assets.

They do not have any real difference-makers at forward, the defense is one of the worst in the league on paper and they are going to be relying on goaltender Carter Hart to carry them.

Hart has shown flashes of being a league-average to above-average starter, but hardly the type of player who can put a team on his back the way somebody like an Ilya Sorokin or Igor Shesterkin can.

If Hart sees any regression in his play, things could get significantly uglier for the Flyers.

Philly managed to get a potential steal in the 2023 class by landing Matvei Michkov, but he is still at least a year from making the NHL, let alone making an impact. He has the potential to be a building block, but they need more.

2. Chicago Blackhawks

Connor Bedard Michael Reaves/Getty Images

The Chicago Blackhawks already got their franchise cornerstone this summer when they won the 2023 draft lottery and the right to select Connor Bedard.

The Blackhawks should be a better team in 2023-24, not only because of the presence of Bedard, but also the veteran additions of Taylor Hall, Nick Foligno and Corey Perry, and the existence of an emerging young core.

Better days should be on the horizon, and there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

But they are not there yet, and even with the addition of a potential megastar and some solid veterans this is still a team filled with holes that is a very long way from contention. The most significant of those holes remain on defense and in goal, where the Blackhawks continue to lack difference-makers and will find themselves overmatched on most nights.

Chicago was one of the worst defensive teams in the league last season, and it is not likely to get better this season. That will only be compounded by an unsettled goalie situation that will rely on veteran Petr Mrazek, who has posted a save percentage under .890 over the past two years, and a completely unproven Arvid Soderblom.

The Blackhawks should be better. But not enough to avoid the bottom of the NHL standings.

1. San Jose Sharks

Vitor Munhoz/NHLI via Getty Images

It has been a really tough few years for San Jose Sharks fans, with four consecutive non-playoff seasons, the longest such run in the history of the franchise. That even dates back to the early expansion years. In fact, prior to the start of the 2019-20 season when this run of futility started, the Sharks had only missed the playoffs five times in the first 27 years of their existence.

This is not a franchise that is used to losing.

Unfortunately for the Sharks and their fans, the losing is almost certainly going to continue for at least a few more years as general manager Mike Grier looks to completely rebuild the roster.

This was also already one of the worst teams in the league a year ago, but it at least had the brilliance of Erik Karlsson to help lift it. But even he is no longer there following an offseason trade to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

That leaves the Sharks with one of the weakest blue lines in the NHL and with no strong goaltending option to help back them up and bail them out. Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl might be the bright spots offensively, while Anthony Duclair was a strong offseason pickup on the cheap, but not much will give the Sharks much of a chance in a rapidly improving Pacific Division.

If they do not finish with the worst record in the NHL and the best odds at the top pick, it would be a pretty surprising development.

Expected goal data via Natural Stat Trick.

   

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