Bryce Young AP Photo/Nell Redmond

Ranking the NFL's Top Candidates to Win Rookie of the Year in 2023

Alex Ballentine

Several strong contenders from the talented 2023 NFL draft class should vie for the Offensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards.

Last year featured a tight race on offense between a 1,000-yard receiver in Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets and a 1,000-yard rusher in Kenneth Walker III of the Seattle Seahawks. Walker had more first-place votes (19 to 18), but Wilson won the award.

On defense, Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner won by a wider margin after playing like a shutdown corner from Day 1, but Detroit Lions edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson gave him some competition with 9.5 sacks.

With three quarterbacks going in the first four picks of this year's draft, each should have an opportunity to make their case for OROY. On defense, there are multiple pass-rushers and a few promising defensive backs who have an inside track to taking home the DROY trophy.

Here's a look at the top contenders for OROY and DROY ranked based on their projected production, visibility and team situation heading into training camp.

Odds for each candidate via DraftKings Sportsbook.

No. 5 DROY Candidate: CB Emmanuel Forbes, Washington Commanders

AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

Odds : +1800

There are two positive ways for corners to get noticed, especially as rookies. The first is shutdown production. The other is to rack up a lot of interceptions.

Emmanuel Forbes is well-suited for the latter.

The 6'0", 180-pound corner is light for the position but has a nose for the ball. He led the SEC in interceptions twice and led all FBS players with six career pick-sixes. Not only does he pick off the ball, but he has the ability to take it to the house as well.

That trend continued throughout the summer with the Commanders. He was "always around the ball and got his hands on numerous passes throughout spring practices—intercepting a few," per ESPN's John Keim.

If Forbes can overcome his slight build to get on the field right away and snag a few interceptions early on, he could be a legitimate dark-horse candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

No. 5 OROY Candidate: QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Odds: +600

Anthony Richardson might have the widest range of outcomes among all of the players in this year's draft class.

Richardson's immense physical tools could put him in a position to be the Indianapolis Colts' Week 1 starter. In a perfect world, new head coach Shane Steichen would be able to scheme up an offense that accentuates his strengths.

If that happens, Richardson could have a season similar to what Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields did last year. Fields rushed for more than 1,000 yards and was a serviceable passer with 17 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.

Richardson has one of the NFL's most talented running backs in Jonathan Taylor, a burgeoning receiver in Michael Pittman Jr. and an athletic pair of tight ends in Mo Alie-Cox and Jelani Woods. That should help ease his transition to the NFL.

However, after making only 13 starts in college, Richardson might not be ready to take the starting job from Gardner Minshew. Even if he does, the Colts have some questions on the offensive line. Growing pains seem inevitable either way.

Richardson could be a favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year if he hits his ceiling as a rookie, but his floor could keep him off the ballot altogether.

No. 4 DROY Candidate: CB Devon Witherspoon, Seattle Seahawks

AP Photo/John Froschauer

Odds: +1000

Sauce Gardner winning Defensive Rookie of the Year last season proved that voters aren't just looking at traditional counting stats. Although he hauled in only two interceptions, he also had a league-high 20 pass breakups, had the highest Pro Football Focus grade of any cornerback and allowed a passer rating of only 62.7 when targeted.

That opens the door for someone like Seattle Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon to be a DROY contender this season.

Witherspoon had only three interceptions in his final season at Illinois but proved to be sticky in coverage. He allowed a passer rating of 25.3, and receivers caught only 22 of the 62 targets thrown his way, per PFF.

Witherspoon will now be paired with Tariq Woolen, who made a strong case to win DROY last season when he tied for the league high with six interceptions. That should force teams to look the other way and target Witherspoon in coverage, which will give him additional opportunities to pick off passes.

If Witherspoon can combine solid play on the outside with a few interceptions, he has a chance to be the second cornerback in a row to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.

No. 4 OROY Candidate: QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Odds: +850

C.J. Stroud is the antithesis to Anthony Richardson as a prospect. His physical tools might not be quite as tantalizing, but the B/R Scouting Department called him the most pro-ready and most accurate quarterback in this year's draft class.

The Houston Texans took Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick. Considering his skill set and profile, he's a virtual lock to start Week 1 ahead of Davis Mills and Case Keenum.

If Kenyon Green improves at left guard and rookie center Juice Scruggs plays well, Stroud's offensive line should be good enough to keep him upright. The question is whether he has the receivers to put up Offensive Rookie of the Year-caliber stats in an offense that will need to establish its identity under new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik.

Second-year wideout John Metchie III missed all of last season after being diagnosed with acute promyelocytic leukemia. Robert Woods may have already lost a step at 31 years old, and Tank Dell will have a lot to prove as a third-round rookie.

If Nico Collins has a breakout year, that will help Stroud's OROY candidacy. But there are a lot of questions about a Texans offense that is still in its infancy under a new coaching staff.

No. 3 DROY Candidate: DT Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Odds: +700

Sauce Gardner broke a three-year streak of edge-rushers winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. Shaquille Leonard won it as an off-ball linebacker back in 2018, but a defensive tackle hasn't won the award since Aaron Donald in 2014.

On talent alone, Jalen Carter has to be mentioned as a DROY contender. He was the No. 2 player on the B/R Scouting Department's final big board, and B/R scout Matt Holder compared Carter to Warren Sapp in his scouting report.

While Carter's landing spot is an ideal fit in the long term, it could hurt his chances of winning DROY since he's joining one of the NFL's best defensive fronts. Javon Hargrave's departure should open a role for Carter, but the Philadelphia Eagles still have a deep defensive tackle rotation that includes Fletcher Cox, Jordan Davis, Milton Williams and Marlon Tuipulotu.

Davis was a first-round pick last season and played only 20.3 percent of the defensive snaps as a rookie. Carter should see a bigger snap share than that, but it could be difficult for him to get enough playing time to seriously contend for the award.

No. 3 OROY Candidate: QB Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

AP Photo/Erik Verduzco

Odds: +500

C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young were neck-and-neck to be the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft, which is reflected in these rankings.

The biggest knock on Young is his size. While that could become an issue if he doesn't prove durable enough to stick around in the league, it shouldn't be a problem right away.

Young's processing, accuracy and ability to make plays outside of structure were among the reasons why the Carolina Panthers took him at No. 1. The fact that the Panthers have already moved him up to the top spot on their depth chart despite signing veteran quarterback Andy Dalton this offseason speaks to how impressed they've been with him already.

Much like Stroud, Young's weapons are a work in progress. Terrace Marshall Jr. needs to break out, D.J. Chark is a fine deep threat if he can stay healthy and Adam Thielen is likely past his prime at this point.

The difference for Young is that he has a more established offensive coaching staff around him. Frank Reich is a proven coach who will help him along, and quarterbacks coach Josh McCown is a future head coaching candidate.

It all adds up to a slightly better context for Young to succeed earlier than Stroud.

No. 2 DROY Candidate: DL Tyree Wilson, Las Vegas Raiders

AP Photo/Jeff Roberson

Odds: +1000

Tyree Wilson should have the opportunity to rack up some sacks this season if he can get healthy. The 6'6", 275-pound defensive lineman has yet to take the field in OTAs or minicamps because of a foot injury that required surgery.

However, Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported that "assuming Wilson is a full go from the foot injury he suffered last November, he is expected to start as a rotational player spelling veteran pass-rusher Chandler Jones." He also said Wilson is also expected to be deployed in pass-rushing packages with Jones and Crosby.

Playing opposite Crosby will to open plenty of one-on-one situations that Wilson could take advantage of. Meanwhile, Jones is 33 years old and coming off a 4.5-sack season in his first year with Vegas.

it's not hard to envision Wilson eventually overtaking Jones if he shows some pass-rushing juice early in the season. That would have him on pace to compete for DROY honors.

No. 2 OROY Candidate: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Paul Sancya

Odds: +1000

Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift combined for over 2,000 total yards last season with the Detroit Lions. However, the Lions moved on from both of them this offseason.

That just shows the kind of opportunity that Jahmyr Gibbs has to put up huge numbers in his first year. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson maximized both Williams and Swift on a unit that finished fifth in the league in scoring offense.

Johnson should love what Gibbs brings to the table. General manager Brad Holmes has already likened him to Marshall Faulk and Christian McCaffrey and raved about his ability to work as a receiver.

Gibbs will have to share the workload with free-agent signee David Montgomery. However, Montgomery was 27th leaguewide in yards created per touch last season, per PlayerProfiler. When the Lions want someone who can create a big play, they're going to turn to Gibbs.

His big-play ability and versatility combined with a big role in what should be a high-powered offense has him in line for a huge rookie year.

No. 1 DROY Candidate: Edge Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans

Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images

Odds: +400

The Houston Texans paid a steep price to trade up to the No. 3 to take Will Anderson Jr. They gave up four draft picks, including their first-round pick next season.

It only makes sense to make that kind of trade if the Texans believe Anderson can be a defensive cornerstone for years to come. His production at Alabama would indicate he's that kind of player.

Anderson had more sacks as a sophomore (17.5) than Tyree Wilson had across his entire college career. He was the No. 1 player on the B/R Scouting Department's final big board, too.

With DeMeco Ryans taking over as Texans head coach, Anderson should benefit from a defensive-minded coach who has worked with Nick Bosa and knows how to get the most out of an elite edge-rusher.

If he lives up to his predraft hype, he should be the favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

No. 1 OROY Candidate: RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

Odds: +275

As long as Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson stays healthy, he should be the man to beat for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Outside of Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson, no other rookie figures to be the focal point of their offense like Robinson is.

The Falcons finished first in rushing attempts and third in rushing yards last season. They didn't use the No. 8 overall pick on a running back not to feed him the ball early and often.

All indications point to the Falcons employing Robinson as both a running back and slot wide receiver. With Atlanta's crew of big-bodied receivers and tight ends that includes Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Mack Hollins, head coach Arthur Smith can get creative with how to get Robinson the ball.

Having a young quarterback like Desmond Ridder could actually help Robinson's production, too. He should be a safe, efficient weapon in checkdown and pressured situations.

Robinson realistically could finish in the top five in total yards this year. It would be tough for anyone to top him for OROY honors if he does.

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