Paul Skenes isn't the only LSU Tiger who could go No. 1 overall. John Korduner for The Washington Post via Getty Images

10 Biggest Storylines to Know Ahead of the 2023 MLB Draft

Zachary D. Rymer

The 2023 Major League Baseball draft is about to descend upon Seattle. For three days starting on July 9, several hundred players will get called to join major league organizations.

It's a big deal, in other words. For anyone who wishes to know more, here's what you need to know.

We've arranged and, albeit unscientifically, ranked 10 big storylines worth being aware of and to monitor as the draft unfolds. These cover the big change to the format, a team that should do well on Day 1 and what this year's draft class does and doesn't have in abundance.

There's also, of course, perhaps the biggest question of all: A member of the College World Series champion LSU Tigers is likely to go No. 1 overall, but which one?

10. This Is MLB's 1st Post-Lottery Draft

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred at the 2022 draft Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Ordinarily, the Washington Nationals would have the first pick in the 2023 draft by way of having finished 2022 with the worst record in MLB at 55-107.

But this year, the Nationals will pick second in deference to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who'll be going first for the second time in three years.

In case anyone forgot or just plain missed it, this was determined in December by the very first draft lottery in MLB history. The concept was written into the latest collective bargaining agreement as an anti-tanking measure, an end to which it goes even further than the lottery systems of the NBA and the NHL.

Apart from the Pirates, the lottery also benefited the Detroit Tigers (No. 3), Texas Rangers (No. 4) and Minnesota Twins (No. 5), who'll each be picking in the top five even though none had a bottom-five record in 2022. On the flip side, the Oakland Athletics (No. 6), Cincinnati Reds (No. 7) and Kansas City Royals (No. 8) got pushed out of the top five by the lottery.

9. The Mariners Should Clean Up on Day 1

Seattle's Julio Rodríguez AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson

Because they made the playoffs last year, the Seattle Mariners were one of 12 teams which were ineligible for the lottery for the No. 1 pick in this year's draft.

But lest anyone weep for them, the Mariners should clean up on Day 1 of the draft anyway.

With the No. 22, No. 29 and No. 30 picks in hand, the Mariners are the only team with three of the top 30 selections. The potential of those picks is not to be underestimated, as those three spots have historically produced such legends as Craig Biggio, George Brett and Mike Schmidt.

A fun fact about the No. 29 pick is that the Mariners have both themselves and Julio Rodríguez to thank for it. Another new aspect of the CBA is that it awards a first-round pick for any team that puts a top 100 prospect on its Opening Day roster and ultimately sees him win the Rookie of the Year. That's exactly what happened with Rodríguez in 2022.

8. This Is a Very Deep Draft Class

Virginia's Kyle Teel AP Photo/Kara Durrette

Kyle Teel seems like the kind of guy who should be a No. 1 pick. A defensively skilled catcher who hit .407 for the Virginia Cavaliers this past season? Seriously, what's not to like?

Well, he might not even go in the top five.

That's not because of any fault of his, but rather related to how deep the 2023 draft class supposedly is. It's an opinion held by Carlos Collazo of Baseball America and Keith Law of The Athletic, who likened it to a 2011 draft class that yielded Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez, George Springer and Sonny Gray in the first round.

The depth of the 2023 draft class is a downstream effect of the shortening of the 2020 draft to five rounds while the COVID-19 pandemic was raging, which resulted in many talented high schoolers (Teel included) forgoing the draft for college. Three years later, those guys are ready for their turns.

7. Where Have All the Southpaws Gone?

Kent State's Joe Whitman AP Photo/Al Goldis

Deep though it may be, the 2023 draft class is not without weaknesses. And the biggest one isn't subtle.

Alas, there just aren't any left-handed pitchers who stand out as can't-miss prospects. The highest-ranked southpaw at MLB.com is Massachusetts high schooler Thomas White at No. 24. After him, it's Kent State's Joe Whitman at No. 37.

It's thus possible that a left-hander won't be chosen with one of the 28 picks which comprise the first round proper. Even if the first lefty selection so much as falls outside of the top 20, that in and of itself would be an unfortunate case of more of the same.

As recently as 2020, three southpaws went within the first 11 picks. But then in 2021, only Frank Mozzicato (No. 7 to Kansas City) went in the top 20, followed by zero lefties in the top 20 in the ensuing draft in 2022. As such, the species of pitcher that major league teams covet the most suddenly seems endangered.

6. The Best Arm in the Draft Might Not Belong to a Pitcher

San Diego State's Cole Carrigg AP Photo/John McCoy

As for where the 2023 draft class is strong, let's start with the literal strength of a specific right arm.

This would be the one belonging to Cole Carrigg, who hit .333 in three seasons with San Diego State but is more so known for his diverse defensive resume. He could hypothetically be drafted as a center fielder, a shortstop or even a catcher.

This speaks to his athleticism and his general knack for playing the field, but the thing that generated the most buzz at the MLB Draft Combine was indeed the 21-year-old's arm. He was clocked at 100 mph on throws on the infield and from the outfield, which is rare stuff:

If Carrigg ends up at center field or at shortstop, his arm could at least make him a Statcast standout in the vein of Brenton Doyle or Oneil Cruz. But with MLB's stolen base success rate now higher than ever courtesy of bigger bases and other new rules, catcher is where a team might put Carrigg to squeeze the most value from said arm.

5. Right Place, Right Time for Enrique Bradfield Jr.

Vanderbilt's Enrique Bradfield Jr. Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

As to other draft prospects who have exactly the right tools to thrive in today's MLB, the thing to know about Enrique Bradfield Jr. is that he's really fast.

Because he didn't participate in the sprinting portion of the Draft Combine, it's hard to put exact figures on the 21-year-old's speed. But it gets 80 grades on the 20-80 scouting scale, implying it's as good as it gets.

The Vanderbilt Commodores know. Bradfield was 130-for-143 stealing bases for them between 2021 and 2023, including a perfect 46-for-46 amid a 2022 season highlighted by a game-tying steal of home plate.

As Bradfield also posted a .426 OBP at Vanderbilt, the skill he'll need to make frequent use of his speed on the basepaths in the major leagues is also there. Factor in that he's also seen as a plus defensive center fielder, he basically looks like an idealized Esteury Ruiz.

4. The Next Shohei Ohtani?

James Madison High School's Bryce Eldridge Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/For The Washington Post via Getty Images

As to the best of this year's prep players, B/R's Joel Reuter tabbed outfielders Max Clark (Indiana) and Walker Jenkins (North Carolina) as the ones most likely to be first off the board.

But if it's a question of who's the most interesting high schooler of the 2023 draft class, how are we supposed to not point the spotlight at the guy known as "the American Ohtani?"

This is Bryce Eldridge, a 6'7", 223-pound 18-year-old who's fresh off putting up intimidating numbers as a senior at Madison High School in Virginia. He had a 1.06 ERA as a right-handed pitcher and a 1.716 OPS as a left-handed hitter.

There's a sense that Eldridge is more likely to be cultivated as a hitter only as opposed to a two-way player, but his mid-90s fastball isn't the only reason to believe he can handle the latter. It's what the man himself wants, as he told MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince: "I know not many people can do it. But it's something I'm super dedicated to."

3. How Much Did the College World Series Boost Ty Floyd's Stock?

LSU's Ty Floyd Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images

Switching back over to the college ranks, there isn't much doubt about which prospect gained the most helium during the Men's College World Series: LSU right-hander Ty Floyd.

Albeit in a losing effort, he struck out 10 batters in five innings against Wake Forest on June 19. He then made history in Game 1 of the MCWS finals against Florida on June 25, striking out 17 over eight innings to pace a 4-3 win.

That Floyd ended up with a modest 4.35 ERA for the season speaks to how up and down he was outside of those two starts, for which it didn't help that he often had trouble with his control.

All the same, he's shot up about 30 spots and now stands at No. 58 in MLB.com's rankings. He should be a Day 1 pick, and it's conceivable that he'll even be a first-round pick if a team reaches for him for the sake of saving bonus money for a later pick.

2. LSU Teammates Could Be the First Two Picks

LSU's Dylan Crews (L) and Paul Skenes (R) AP Photo/John Peterson

Floyd may have come out of the Men's College World Series with the most helium, but most eyes are on two other members of this year's Tigers.

One is outfielder Dylan Crews, the reigning Golden Spikes Award winner who's seen as a five-tool talent. Certainly, his tools were on display throughout 2023 as he graced the Tigers with a 1.280 OPS and 18 home runs while also playing a strong center field.

The other is Paul Skenes, a hard-throwing righty who celebrated his transfer from the Air Force Academy by ripping off a 1.69 ERA with 209 strikeouts against only 20 walks. As MLB.com's Jim Callis wrote of him in May: "He's the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg in 2009, and Strasburg was the best ever."

The expectation is that Crews and Skenes, both of whom are 21, will be the first two picks of the draft. That would be historic. Though there have been some close calls, never before have two teammates ever gone 1-2 in the draft.

1. Will Dylan Crews or Paul Skenes Go No. 1?

LSU's Dylan Crews Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Ah, but which one of Crews and Skenes will go No. 1 overall when the Pirates make their selection on Sunday?

It's a good question if for no other reason than there's no right answer. Who the better prospect is varies depending on who you ask. For example, MLB.com prefers Skenes while Baseball America is among the publications who prefer Crews.

And then there's the question of whether the Pirates will pick Crews even if he's the one they prefer. That's perfectly sensible in the abstract, yet ESPN's Kiley McDaniel wrote on June 26 of "a belief from those plugged into the Pirates pick that the Crews camp will not be willing to take whatever is offered at the first pick."

If this is a negotiation ploy, there may be a bonus price—presumably higher than the $9.7 million slot value for the No. 1 pick—that could change Crews' mind. If not, the Pirates might play it safe with Kenes and leave Crews for the Nationals at No. 2.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.

   

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