For the last several years, few things indicated summer quite like the annual offseason John Collins trade buzz.
His time in the rumor mill feels about as long as his time in the NBA.
On Monday, mercifully, the Utah Jazz snagged him out of it.
What this amounts to, really, is the Atlanta Hawks simply giving Collins away (for flexibility on the cap sheet, but still).
For a player who turns 26 in September and who averaged 18.5 points and 8.7 rebounds in 30.6 minutes from his age-21 to age-24 seasons, the price comes as a bit of a surprise.
But several teams bracing for the incoming and more restrictive collective bargaining agreement may be looking to unload hefty salaries they don't deem absolutely necessary.
This may not be the last trade of this variety that we see over the next couple of years.
Before we step too far into the future, though, let's break down this deal with the tried-and-true winners and losers exercise.
Winner: Utah Jazz
The Jazz were reportedly after Collins as far back as the beginning of the 2022-23 season. At that time, the price was surely higher than Rudy Gay's expiring contract and a second-round pick.
Utah getting its man now in what amounts to a salary dump is undoubtedly a win.
Unlike Atlanta, the Jazz are in a position to take on money. Their two highest-paid players, Collin Sexton and Lauri Markkanen, are both on the books for less than $20 million per year through at least 2024-25. Collins has a player option for $26.6 million in 2025-26.
If he doesn't fit, there won't be much overlap with his contract and Markkanen's new one.
But the way Utah played in 2022-23 suggests Collins should actually do just fine there.
Rookie head coach Will Hardy started a jumbo front line with Markkanen at the 3, Kelly Olynyk at the 4 and Jarred Vanderbilt (eventually Walker Kessler) at the 5.
And it worked (especially once Kessler became the starter) in large part because of Markkanen's previously under-appreciated versatility and ability to play the wing.
The Jazz just drafted Taylor Hendricks with a top-10 pick, and he seemed like a smart bet to eventually take over Olynyk's role, but Collins is probably the leader in the clubhouse now.
And if Utah gets the Collins of a couple years ago, he'll be a boost to the offense.
Loser: Atlanta Hawks
It's not like the Hawks are giving up on a surefire All-Star here. Collins was picked outside the lottery in 2017. He hasn't developed a ton on the defensive end. And Atlanta has made the playoffs in only three of his six seasons. Two of those playoff appearances ended after one round.
While it's easy to see why they're doing this (again, the cap flexibility), the Hawks having to just give away a productive big under the age of 26 is not ideal.
Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns and Christian Wood are the only players in NBA history who match or exceed all of Collins' career averages for points (19.5), rebounds (9.8), blocks (1.3) and threes (1.2) per 75 possessions.
Though the emergence of three-point-shooting bigs should make hitting these benchmarks more common, it does demonstrate some versatility for the big man.
And beyond his individual production, there's at least an argument that losing him won't be great for Trae Young.
Over the course of their five seasons together, the Hawks are plus-1.0 points per 100 possessions when Collins and Young share the floor, compared to minus-3.1 when Young plays without Collins.
Winner: John Collins
John Collins posted his career-high usage percentage in his second season in 2018-19. It's gone down in each season since then.
This season, among Hawks with at least 500 total minutes, he was seventh in usage.
And with Young and presumably Dejounte Murray both coming back for 2023-24, there probably wasn't much more responsibility for Collins to take.
He certainly won't jump to the top of the pecking order in Utah. Markkanen was an All-Star starter and one of the game's most efficient high-volume scorers. Hendricks will probably get an opportunity to play a real role.
But Hardy appeared willing to try a wide variety of players and lineups throughout his first campaign as a head coach. Collins will get a chance to show off his talent again.
And sometimes, players just need a change of scenery. Things had stagnated for Collins in Atlanta. Utah's a good place for a new lease on NBA life. Just ask Markkanen.
Loser: Taylor Hendricks
This is probably a little premature. Being drafted ninth overall has rarely guaranteed a starting spot or 30-plus minutes per game.
But Hendricks, Utah's top first-round pick in this summer's draft, had what seemed like a pretty direct line to the starting 4 spot (at least at some point this season).
Olynyk may have started the campaign there, but the Utah front office led by Danny Ainge has prioritized youth since his arrival. And an Olynyk trade wouldn't be any more surprising than last season's Mike Conley deal.
If such a trade happens now, Hendricks will likely still have Collins to compete with for minutes and touches.
In the long run, that may prove beneficial for his development, but Hendricks likely wouldn't have minded an easier path to the floor.
Loser: 2023 Free Agents
In a roundabout way, the structure of this deal (with Utah taking back $25.3 million while only sending out Rudy Gay's $6.5 million) could spell trouble for this summer's free-agent class.
The Jazz are a team that could've used cap space to shell out a generous offer to a free agent, but they spent most of that room on Collins.
As noted by Bleacher Report's Bryan Toporek, that means less money for players looking for new contracts this summer.
This offseason, and perhaps for a few going forward—thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement—could see an awful lot of players switching teams signed to minimums and other cap exceptions.
And in that way, the NBA's middle class of players could get squeezed financially in a way they haven't been for years.
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