AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes

How 2023 NFL Offseason Will Elevate Buffalo Bills to League's Best Offense

Brent Sobleski

The Buffalo Bills already claim one of the NFL's top offenses. They're trending toward being even better with the potential to dethrone the Kansas City Chiefs as the league's best after a crucial offseason.

Everyone knows that any success in the AFC goes through Kansas City, and opponents must be able to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes and Co. Last season, the Super Bowl champions averaged 16 more yards per game.

However, Buffalo's natural progression of being in the second year with Ken Dorsey calling plays, Josh Allen's continued development and some key—albeit somewhat under-the-radar—additions have the unit poised to take the No. 1 spot.

The transition away from Brian Daboll, after being Allen's only play-caller through the quarterback's first four seasons, to Dorsey was always going to have its moments.

The 27-year-old took the blame after the Cincinnati Bengals bounced the Bills out of the playoffs, as any good team leader does.

"I thought he did a really good job of putting us in positions to be successful," Allen told reporters. "I got to be better for him, and especially when he gives me some shot plays. I turned the ball over too many times this year. Didn't really bite us all that much, only losing three games in the regular season. But there's opportunities where it could have. And just taking a deep dive into that and understanding defenses as well as I can and just trying to make the right play moving forward."

Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey (left) and quarterback Josh Allen (right) AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes

Despite being in the staff for the last four years—primarily as Allen's quarterbacks coach—Dorsey still brings a different voice, cadence and thought process as offensive coordinator compared to his predecessor.

Allen added another important comment about Dorsey after the loss: "And I trust him. He works so hard. He works tirelessly. He's always in the building. ... So I respect the hell out of him. I really do."

Strong continuity within the Bills organization allowed Allen to maximize his potential and become an MVP candidate after entering the league as a massive project.

The transition from Daboll to Dorsey served as the first major change for Allen since the quarterback took the reins. Another year together, along with current quarterbacks coach Joe Brady, will create a stronger rapport and comfort level with one another.

To be frank, the second year in Dorsey's system needs to showcase a signal-caller with less on his plate, not more.

Mahomes may be the very best, but Allen serves as the position's prototype. The Bills' starter is 6'5" and 237 pounds, with outstanding athleticism and significant horsepower packed into his right arm. Previously, Buffalo has relied heavily on his natural gifts to elevate the entire franchise.

"It's not like he's playing in a system like in Buffalo where the Bills are relying on Josh Allen sitting back and just chucking the ball all over the field, where it's like, 'Good Lord, how are you making those throws?'" an anonymous coach told The Athletic's Bruce Feldman when comparing Brock Purdy's emergence with the San Francisco 49ers to other quarterbacks around the league.

But Allen understands his game must change as he matures.

"I know this sounds crazy, but I'm getting older," he told reporters. "It's like, 'I can't continue to do this.' I know when I'm using my youth, I feel like I can, but over the course of my career, I'm going to have to learn to adapt and change."

Quietly, Mahomes' career reached a crossroads when the Chiefs chose to trade wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. He needed to become a more consistent facilitator within the confines of Andy Reid's system. He did so on his way to winning a second Super Bowl and MVP trophy last season. The creativity and natural ability are still there, yet the best player in the league adapted to his circumstances and evolved.

Dorsey is already looking at ways to do the same for Allen and adjusting in his second year as play-caller.

"Coaching is being honest, not only with your players, but yourself and making sure that if you didn't like something, 'OK, we could probably get away from what we're doing here,'" Dorsey said. "I think you look at those things … and evaluate it and if it's not something that fits our personnel, fits our identity, then we're not going to run it as much. If it is then we're going to continue to grow."

One specific area from a personnel standpoint that will increase greatly is the unit's usage of 12 personnel (two tight ends and two wide receivers). According to Pro Football Focus, the Bills used 12 personnel the least amount of any squad over the last two seasons (h/t Nick Wojton of Bills Wire).

During that stretch, Buffalo starting tight end Dawson Knox caught 97 passes for 1,104 yards and 15 touchdowns. However, no other TE on the roster proved to be a legitimate threat. So, the Bills drafted Utah's Dalton Kincaid with this year's 25th overall pick.

"He was clearly the No. 1 tight end for us," an anonymous NFL executive told The Athletic's Mike Sando. "You put him in that offense... That is scary for a top-five offense to reload and potentially get better."

Buffalo Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes

Kincaid brings a little Rob Gronkowski thanks to his strong hands, toughness working down the seam, ferocity after the catch and tenacity as a blocker.

Though the 6'4", 240-pound rookie isn't as big or as good at the point of attack, he'll help open up the offense. His teammates have certainly taken notice, if early returns mean anything.

Allen is certainly happy after conceding he became "persistent" in telling management who he wanted as part of the offense. After seeing him in minicamp, future Hall of Fame edge-rusher Von Miller told reporters: "This Dalton Kincaid kid is insane."

When a slot option is necessary, Khalil Shakir already showed significant growth during his first full professional offseason. According to the Buffalo News' Mark Gaughan, last year's fifth-round pick pieced together a strong spring and made multiple plays in team sessions.

Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are the team's top two outside options, of course, but the Bills struggled to find a consistent threat from the slot last season. Shakir can fill the role this fall.

Up front, general manager Brandon Beane bolstered the offensive interior with the free-agent signings of Connor McGovern (three years, $22.35 million) and David Edwards (one year, $1.77 million). The team also drafted the top pure guard prospect, Florida's O'Cyrus Torrence, with the 59th overall pick.

Buffalo Bills rookie guard O'Cyrus Torrence AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes

Ryan Bates will now have competition from Torrence, while McGovern should upgrade left guard based on how an aging Rodger Saffold played in 2022.

Running back is the only spot potentially downgraded with Devon Singletary's free-agent departure after leading the Bills in rushing during each of the last four seasons, though he never eclipsed more than 870 yards in a singular year. Besides, the team doesn't feature a ground-and-pound attack.

James Cook, who was selected 63rd overall in the 2022 draft, will now be featured. The sophomore ball-carrier may actually add more as a route-runner compared to Singletary. Furthermore, the Bills signed veterans Damien Harris and Latavius Murray to provide quality depth.

Comparatively, the Chiefs are replacing both of their starting offensive tackles and must adjust after losing their top wide receiver yet again. There's no doubt they can continue to steamroll, as long as Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce remain on the roster.

However, a slight step back in Kansas City should be all Buffalo needs to lay claim to the league's best offense.

Allen's continued maturation will be seen this season with an improved surrounding cast and growing familiarity with his current coordinator, making one of the NFL's best rosters even more dangerous.

Brent Sobleski covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @brentsobleski.

   

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