CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images

Buy or Tank? What Fringe NBA Playoff Teams Should Do This Offseason

Dan Favale

Who's ready for another rousing round of NBA "Tank or Buy?!?"

Fringe playoff teams will be the focus. And in this case, "tank" is code for "rebuild," "start over," "sell, sell, sell," "acquire a bunch of picks," etc.

Our sample group will be chosen based off the

most unsettled situations rather than the 2022-23 standings. The Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz can all be packaged as fringe-playoff hopefuls. They're left out anyway.

Fans should treat their exclusion as a compliment. Your squad is either already rebuilding, ahead of schedule or both.

Teams that entered last year with more immediate expectations only to fail, sometimes miserably, are the lifeblood of this exercise. They have pivotal, franchise-altering decisions on their hands. This is me offering my (unsolicited) two cents on the matter.

Chicago Bulls

DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine Mark Blinch/NBAE via Getty Images

Right now, at this very moment, the Chicago Bulls front office members are probably convincing themselves, enthusiastically, that they're a heartbeat away from Finals contention because they played a fairly competitive play-in game against the Miami Heat.

Yeah, no.

This team needs a hard reset. A more immediate approach might fly if Lonzo Ball wasn't going to miss next season after needing yet another knee procedure (cartilage transplant). But Chicago can no longer factor him into its plans.

Now's a good time to start over. Nikola Vučević is a free agent, and Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine should all have significant trade value. (Concerns about LaVine's contract are overblown.)

The Bulls also have their own 2024 first-rounder. And while they owe another to San Antonio between 2025 and 2027, it never drops below top-eight protection. Retaining that pick is within their control.

Decisions on Ayo Dosunmu (Early Bird restricted), Coby White (restricted) and Patrick Williams (extension eligible) can go either way. Their futures don't impede what is now a loooong overdue rebuild.

Verdict: Tank/Sell/Rebuild

Dallas Mavericks

Kyrie Irving and Luka Dončić Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Luka Dončić exists. So the Dallas Mavericks must buy.

They've technically already started. They forked over Spencer Dinwiddie, their most valuable defender in Dorian Finney-Smith and an unprotected 2029 first-rounder to land Kyrie Irving just before the 2023 trade deadline.

Whether this was the right call remains to be seen. The Mavs can offer Kyrie the most lucrative deal possible, and the cap-space climate isn't conducive to his leaving.

Dallas' aim remains the same no matter what happens. If Kyrie bolts, it will have some cap space, albeit not anywhere near max money. It may also have the leverage to recoup value in a sign-and-trade. Impact talent acquisition will still be the priority.

If Kyrie stays, as expected, the Mavs will have their mini mid-level to use on free agents. Trades become even more critical in this scenario. Their tippy-top-shelf offer:

Josh Green, Jaden Hardy, the No. 10 pick and a future first attached to salary.

Does that get them an elite perimeter defender? Or a glitzy big man to anchor the back line? The Mavs are obligated to find out.

Verdict: Buy

New Orleans Pelicans

Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Zion Williamson has missed almost 63 percent of the New Orleans Pelicans' regular-season games since entering the NBA. His struggle to stay healthy is cause for additional urgency. Who knows how long his prime lasts at this point?

New Orleans has already shown some appetite for acceleration. It has three players on big-money deals: Zion, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. And the roster is about to get pricier.

Ingram is extension-eligible again. New contracts for Jose Alvarado, Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III loom.

The Pelicans must already grapple with some (likely) luxury-tax-evasion realities this summer.

Rebuilding might carry some appeal if New Orleans wasn't fit to buy. It has a nice mix of digestible salaries and kiddies, all its own firsts and inbound draft goodies from the Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks.

Sure, the Pelicans' ability to upgrade is at the mercy of the trade market—and team governor Gayle Benson's stomach for expensive swings. In a vacuum, though, they have the assets to chase much-needed shooting and rim protection. And they should channel the aggression to match it.

Verdict: Buy

Portland Trail Blazers

Shaedon Sharpe and Damian Lillard Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images

We know how the Portland Trail Blazers' summer will play out. Reports will link them to marquee names and tout their willingness to trade the No. 3 pick in a valiant attempt to maximize Damian Lillard's timeline and reward his loyalty.

Then, when the dust settles, they will inevitably have done…basically nothing. Maybe they keep Jerami Grant and tinker on the margins. But they'll largely look the same, caught between a rebuild and win-now timeline.

This aversion to big decisions and bigger swings is now two front offices old. And it's inexcusable.

On the bright side, Portland's track record of faux-competing and midseason tank jobs allows us to deliberate their future without weighing what's most likely.

I.E. It's time to rebuild.

A new deal for Grant—and potentially restricted free agents Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle—will make it impossible to carve out cap space with Dame's mega deal, Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons on the docket. The Blazers aren't a free agent destination, so that's fine. But their best trade offers are bogged down by their attachment to (read: fear of dealing) No. 3 and Shaedon Sharpe, and when they owe a first to Chicago that's lottery protected until the end of time.

Portland placing premiums on Sharpe and No. 3 is admirable—and wise. But let's ditch this half-baked charade. You're not maximizing Lillard's window. Start catering to the era you're clearly more concerned with already.

Verdict: Tank (again)/Rebuild/Sell

Toronto Raptors

Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet Mark Blinch/NBAE via Getty Images

The talent at the top of the Toronto Raptors roster makes it easy to endorse buying. Team president Masai Ujiri has already gone that route by flipping a top-six-protected 2024 first for Jakob Poeltl.

Still, doubling down on this core requires substantive financial commitments—and, more notably, the capacity to ignore the Raptors were just eliminated from the play-in.

Poeltl, Fred VanVleet (player option) and Gary Trent Jr. (player option) are all free agents. OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam are extension eligible this summer and hit the open market in 2024. This nucleus will cannonball into the luxury tax if kept together.

That's a pretty penny to pay for the kind of mediocrity without a clear escape hatch. We're too far into Anunoby's career to predict offensive reinvention. Siakam and FVV are getting older.

Without any extra picks or cap flexibility, the Raptors' path to contention rests almost solely on a Scottie Barnes mega leap. Is this roster, with its spacing, conducive to a Barnes mega leap? Debatable.

The Raptors can bring everyone back and trade themselves into a rebuild later. Proactively resetting makes more sense.

Verdict: Tank/Rebuild/Sell

Washington Wizards

Kyle Kuzma and Bradley Beal David Berding/Getty Images

New president of Monumental Basketball Michael Winger and equally new general manager Will Dawkins apparently have full autonomy to run the Washington Wizards as they see fit.

Here's hoping they lean into a rebuild that should've started years ago.

Washington has no discernible path out from the bottom of the middle. Someone already on the roster needs to explode (Deni Avdija?), or the Wizards must mine stardom and direction from the No. 8 pick. Neither is especially likely.

Treacherous still, Washington is at risk of even more tightly affixing itself to sub-mediocrity. Kyle Kuzma (player option) and Kristaps Porzingis (player option) are both slated for free agency following career years. This core is a stone's throw from entering the tax, and the first-rounder they owe to New York is protected through 2026, making it difficult to meaningfully buy.

Tearing it down is the more palatable—and workable—course. Bradley Beal will still net a haul despite his pay grade and veto power, and a shallow free-agency market should make it easier to negotiate sign-and-trade packages for Kuzma and KP.

Verdict: Tank/Rebuild/Sell

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.

   

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