Amanda Nunes (left) and Irene Aldana. Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC

UFC 289 Predictions: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Picks

Tom Taylor

UFC 289 is set for Saturday night in Vancouver, British Columbia. It will be the Las Vegas-based promotion's first event in Canada since 2019, and while the card itself has been the subject of some criticism—it's not exactly a blockbuster—there is still a lot to look forward to.

It's not every day, after all, that you get to see the greatest female fighter of all time compete in the Octagon. That is precisely what we'll get in the UFC 289 main event, when two-division champion Amanda Nunes defends the bantamweight belt for the eighth time against underdog Irene Aldana.

On paper, it has the makings of a blowout, but Aldana is full of confidence after watching fellow Mexican Alexa Grasso dethrone flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko earlier this year.

Before Nunes and Aldana clash, top lightweight contenders Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush will collide in arguably the most anticipated fight of the card.

Oliveira, one of the greatest fighters in the division's history, will be looking to get back on track after losing his belt to Islam Makhachev last year. Dariush, on the other hand, will be looking for his ninth straight victory.

It's crowded at the top of the lightweight division—it always is—but the winner of this one could be next up for the champion.

Beyond the top two fights, the UFC 289 main card is undeniably short on big names, with Mike Malott meeting Adam Fugitt at welterweight, Dan Ige taking on Nate Landwehr at featherweight, and Marc-André Barriault battling Eryk Anders at middleweight.

There's no way to know how it will all shake out until Saturday, but as always, the B/R combat sports squad has assembled to provide you with their best guesses.

Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana

Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

Haris Kruskic: This is tricky. On the surface, one could assume this will be another straightforward win for Nunes. Aldana's resume isn't a terrific one, but neither was Julianna Peña's ahead of her first fight with The Lioness. We all know how that turned out.

I'm still going with Nunes because of the way she responded against Peña in the rematch. That was a far more motivated Nunes than we had seen in her most recent loss, and if we see that level of motivation again, she should add yet another successful title defense to her name.

Nunes by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: At this point, it's clear Nunes has the tools to beat anybody at bantamweight or featherweight. She's proved that by making almost everyone she's fought look average.

Still, it's hard to shake the feeling she has one foot out the door—even if she looked refocused in her rematch with Peña.

If that's the case, she could be in for a rough night in Vancouver.

While Aldana will be at a technical disadvantage in most phases of this fight, she is the sharper boxer of the two women on paper, and she has plenty of knockout power to boot. And after she watched Grasso dethrone Shevchenko at flyweight earlier this year—an accomplishment on par with beating Nunes—she knows the upset is possible.

Call it a hunch, but I'm betting that the combination of Nunes' waning interest in competition and Aldana's surging confidence leads to a big shock in Vancouver. And new.

Aldana by KO, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons: No question we'll not go into Nunes fights with the same level of certainty that we had pre-Peña, but Haris makes a salient point in mentioning how dominant the champ was the second time around.

She may have begun looking past people and got stung. Don't expect it again anytime soon.

Nunes by TKO, Rd. 4

Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush

Charles Oliveira Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Haris Kruskic: Ah yes, the people's main event.

As much as I want to see fresh faces in the lightweight title picture, people seem to be low on Oliveira just because he lost to, arguably, the best fighter in the world in Islam Makhachev. Let's not forget he beat Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler at the end of his 11-fight win streak.

In comparison, I question Dariush's level of competition during his current eight-fight unbeaten run. His best win was against Mateusz Gamrot, and although he looked really good in that fight, it's hard for me to point to it and say that gets the job done against someone like Oliveira.

Oliveira by TKO, Rd. 2

Tom Taylor: Haris is right. Oliveira's lopsided loss to Makhachev last year distracted a lot of people from everything he has accomplished over the last few years.

Haris is also right about Dariush's level of competition. It's not his fault, but he has not been fighting the same kind of killers as Oliveira. These things matter.

I think Dariush will have some success with his grappling early on—it might look a bit like his fight with Tony Ferguson for a round or two.

Eventually, though, Oliveira will do what he usually does and find an opening. He might find it on the mat, but Dariush is an experienced BJJ black belt, so I think it's more likely this one ends on the feet.

Oliveira by TKO, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons: I am perhaps B/R's most unapologetic Oliveira fan. I picked him to beat Makhachev and was finally burned after a long run of success.

But like Nunes in the last one, I expect him to be on point for his return and I, too, don't believe Dariush has seen what my man is going to show him.

Oliveira by submission, Rd. 3

Mike Malott vs. Adam Fugitt

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Haris Kruskic: The UFC is asking fans to spend $75 on an event where Mike Malott vs. Adam Fugitt is the third-to-last fight. Good luck.

This should be a terrific bout, though, regardless of how familiar viewers are with either competitor. Ten of Malott's 11 fights have ended in the first round, while 10 of Fugitt's 12 have resulted in a finish. Don't expect this to last long.

That said, I'm counting on Malott's quick starts, outstanding submission game and the Canadian crowd to overwhelm Fugitt early.

Malott by submission, Rd. 1

Tom Taylor: I know we're beating a dead horse at this point, but I've just got to say it again: This is a terrible pay-per-view. It honestly feels like a slap in the face to fans in Canada, who have been waiting since well before the pandemic for a big UFC card. But I digress.

Malott and Fugitt are not to blame for their position on this card, and their fight should be pretty good, even if half the people watching have no idea who they are.

Malott, a solid prospect at 170 pounds, will be looking for a statement win on home soil. I'm betting things go the way he wants.

As Haris suggested, he is a proven submission threat, and he should be able to lock something up against Fugitt, who has been finished three times in 12 pro fights.

Malott by submission, Rd. 1

Lyle Fitzsimmons: I get why Malott, a Canadian, is on a card in Canada. I'm not quite as sure why he's placed where he is on the bout sheet. But that's a discussion for another time.

It should be entertaining in the spot for those who've committed the cash, and I'll assume the Vancouver vibe breaks any competitive ties.

Malott by submission, Rd. 2

Dan Ige vs. Nate Landwehr

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Haris Kruskic: Nate Landwehr has become a fan favorite in recent months and rightfully so. He's an exciting fighter and a great talker.

Dan Ige is at a bit of a crossroads in his career, having lost four of his last six, but those losses came against Calvin Kattar, Josh Emmett, Korean Zombie and Movsar Evloev who are all top featherweights.

My big concern about Landwehr is that he gets wild at times, making it easy to get caught by someone with precise power like Ige. That could make for a quick night.

Ige by TKO, Rd. 1

Tom Taylor: Ige has got to win this. He is one win removed from a three-fight skid, and another loss—particularly to a guy like Landwehr—will just about kill his dreams of fighting for the featherweight title in this lifetime.

That's not to say Landwehr is a bad fighter, but losing to him is far less excusable than losing to world-class foes like Korean Zombie, Emmett and Kattar.

Ige should be able to pull this one out, but I'm betting it goes the distance. The Hawaiian has some good knockouts on his record, but he's not exactly Edson Barboza, and Landwehr has proved he can take a shot.

Ige puts the hurt on him but fails to put him away.

Ige by decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Can Landwehr step his game up to the level of an Ige? I say yes.

It feels like 50K's time on the top level might have passed him by in the three losses from June 2021 to 2022, and momentum alone suggests that The Train, who has won three straight, finds a way to get it done in a banger.

Landwehr by split decision

Marc-André Barriault vs. Eryk Anders

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Haris Kruskic: This is kind of a wash. I'll take Barriault just because he's a good wrestler and we haven't seen Anders respond well to that throughout his career. Won't be surprised if 'Ya Boi' catches him early though.

Barriault by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: Barriault and Anders may not be huge names, but they've both been involved in some fun scraps over the years, and they will probably start this PPV with a bang.

Anders has definitely fought the superior competition—largely a product of the fact that he's been in the UFC for longer—but Barriault is the better pick at this point. He can wrestle, and he has proved he has the skill and killer instinct to end fights on the feet and on the mat.

He will probably have a tough time finishing a durable veteran like Anders, but he should be able to convince the judges over three rounds.

Barriault by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Feels like Anders is precisely the sort of recognizable, credible foe that Barriault should have, and should beat, in front of a crowd that Bruce Buffer has stirred into a frenzy to open the PPV show.

Give it to the guy who's won four of his last six over the one who's only 3-3 (with a no-contest) in that stretch.

Barriault by unanimous decision

   

Read 23 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)