The NBA landscape is about to change.

Quite possibly in dramatic fashion.

Star player movement has become nearly as synonymous with the league's offseason as bouncing ping-pong balls and unbridled optimism. Through free agency and trades, elite talents switch uniforms and change championship odds all the time. At this point of the player-empowerment era, just about everything feels possible.

That adds plenty of juice to the rumor mill—but it almost makes it tricky to tell how much substance these rumblings really have. Because no matter how active an offseason is, there will always be rumors that don't come true.

Time will ultimately reveal them, but we're taking early, educated guesses to separate fact from fiction. We'll break down the buzz around basketball's names that might be on the move, then buy or sell them as realistic possibilities.

Deandre Ayton

The Phoenix Suns are almost unrecognizable from the team that spent the top pick of the 2018 draft on Deandre Ayton. They've changed ownership and coaches while overhauling nearly their entire roster. Of the 23 teammates Ayton had over the course of his rookie campaign, only Devin Booker remains.

While so much has changed around Ayton, the center himself hasn't—for better and worse. He has been a walking double-double since entering the league and keeps flirting with a 20-point, 10-rebound average. He's also been a constant source of frustration with inconsistency in his production from one night to the next and in his perceived level of engagement.

It sounds as if this frustration may have finally boiled over, for the Suns and Ayton himself. According to ESPN's Tim MacMahon, the Suns "are expected to aggressively explore" Ayton's trade market, while the center "would be excited about a fresh start with another franchise."

With mutual interest in a scenery change, it feels like Ayton's exit is a matter of when not if. Theoretically, the decision to axe Monty Williams, whom Ayton didn't always see eye-to-eye with, and replace him with Frank Vogel, who might want Ayton to anchor the interior, could change that, but that's assuming this relationship isn't already past the point of salvaging.

It very well may be. Ayton appears in need of that fresh start, and the top-heavy Suns could benefit from turning the high-paid big man into a few reliable, reasonably priced role players.

Verdict: Easy buy. Ayton has already played his last game in Phoenix.

James Harden

The decision lying ahead of James Harden doesn't appear to be much of a decision at all. Not on its surface, at least.

Stay with the Philadelphia 76ers, and he can presumably spend the remainder of his career chasing championships with Joel Embiid, the reining MVP. For Harden, who will turn 34 in August, that seems ideal given the slight decline he's already showing, and its potential to snowball at any point.

Yet, the bearded baller is apparently no lock to run it back with the Sixers. In fact, The Athletic's Shams Charania reported Harden is "torn" between staying in Philadelphia or returning to the Houston Rockets. Yes, the same Houston Rockets who have a league-worst 59 wins to show for the past three seasons combined.

What could Space City possibly offer him? Well, Charania cited Harden's "roots, his family," and Houston's ability to create "upwards of $60 million to $70 million in cap space," so the sales pitch isn't empty. Still, it's hard to find many basketball reasons for Harden to return—or, frankly, for the rebuilding Rockets to want him back.

Then again, the Harden-back-to-Houston rumblings have been around long enough to assume there's some fire underneath this smoke. Is it enough to spark an actual return, though? That feels unlikely. Harden and the Rockets are on two different timelines, and trying to align them on the fly could be disastrous for both.

Verdict: Soft sell. There's too much Houston talk to think Harden isn't considering it, but it wouldn't make sense for him to leave Philly.

Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving's future always feel a bit uncertain, but it's officially so right now, with his contract up and unrestricted free agency awaiting him. Theoretically, he could head just about anywhere, but in reality, this is a two-team race between the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers.

And based on most of what we've heard, the Mavericks have a massive lead so far. Re-signing is their top priority this summer, and he has "consistently expressed a desire to remain a Maverick," per Marc Stein.

So, why is Irving even on this list? Because no one is totally ruling out the possibility of him joining LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the Los Angeles Lakers. Despite word of the Lakers being disinterested in Irving, ESPN's Zach Lowe said, "I don't think they've shut the door completely on Kyrie." The Athletic's Jovan Buha also put the odds of Irving landing in L.A. "somewhere in the 10 to 15 percent range."

Those aren't great odds, obviously, but they also aren't zero. While the Mavs need to do everything they can to show Luka Dončić they can build a contender around him, they might conclude that'd be easier to do without making a max-money commitment to Irving, who has averaged 40.8 games played over the past four seasons. And while the Lakers seem to be prioritizing continuity, it's hard to imagine they'd automatically turn away an interested star (who already won one title with James).

Irving probably isn't going anywhere, but you can see why this remains a talking point.

Verdict: Sell. The Mavericks will pay him what he wants.

LeBron James

Seasoned observers of this league know the best mindset for the offseason is expecting the unexpected. Even then, though, this recent chatter around LeBron James is stunning.

First, he told B/R's Chris Haynes he was mulling retirement upon completing of his 20th NBA season. Then, Haynes threw an even less predictable twist into the mix by reporting Kyrie Irving "wants the Dallas Mavericks to explore trading for LeBron James."

Clayton Kershaw himself would be impressed by that curveball.

There are a million reasons to dismiss the idea of James landing in Dallas, of course. He'd have to want out of L.A., a city he handpicked and relocated his family to, and want away from Anthony Davis, a co-star he selected and already won a title with. There is no evidence of either of these things being true, and no reasons to believe they'll become true at any point.

Beyond that, the machinations of getting James to the Mavericks are tricky at best and wholly absurd at worst. Their trade budget doesn't reach nearly far enough to get a deal done. Offering a few picks, Josh Green, Jaden Hardy and filler for LeBron James is either a drunk dial gone wrong or an admission you don't reside within everyone else's reality.

Technically, James could also force a buyout and get to Dallas that way, but he'd have to leave a ton of money on the table, and Irving would need to take a significant paycut in his new deal, too. That's not happening.

Verdict: Hard sell. James is going nowhere.

Chris Paul

As soon as the Phoenix Suns landed Kevin Durant at the trade deadline, they officially entered championship-or-bust mode. Their second-round exit didn't make the deal a bust—they'll get more cracks at it before Durant leaves his prime—but it did perhaps highlight the need for a significant shakeup.

Monty Williams already left, and Deandre Ayton might be next. Could Chris Paul follow them out the door? In a word: absolutely.

Only a hair more than half of his $30.8 million salary for next season is guaranteed, with the rest set to fully guarantee on June 28. Paul maybe shouldn't plan on that happening.

The Athletic's Shams Charania, Doug Haller and John Hollinger reported that the Suns and Paul "are exploring multiple options...including a trade, waiving and stretching his contract over multiple years, or waiving and potentially re-signing him in free agency."

Everything is on the table, in other words. It shouldn't be, though.

Exploring a trade for Paul is fine, since Phoenix would get something out of the exchange. Waiving him makes no sense, since it wouldn't create enough flexibility to find a suitable replacement. Even stretching his salary wouldn't give the Suns significant wiggle room.

You can make a good argument that Paul isn't a $30.8 million talent anymore—he has set career-lows in scoring each of the past two seasons—which has to be why Phoenix is weighing alternatives. That's not really the debate to have, though.

The question is whether next season's Suns would be better with or without Paul. Technically, that hinges on what the trade market offers up for him, but his declining production and propensity to get injured at the worst possible time—he missed Phoenix's final four playoff games with a strained left groin—might scare off suitors or convince them to send only low-ball offers at the Suns.

Shedding Paul just to get rid of him makes no sense. He remains a top-shelf connector with a canyon-sized gulf between his assists (8.9) and turnovers (1.9). Flipping him for a few replacement-level players likely worsens this team. Waiving him and bringing him back at a lower cost might make sense, but only if he's open to a paycut.

Verdict: Soft sell. The Suns will explore their options, but they won't find a better alternative to keeping Paul—on his current deal or a new one.