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What Do Anthony Richardson, NFL Rookie QBs Need to Accomplish for 1st Year Success?

Gary Davenport

Here's a news flash—the NFL is a quarterback-driven league.

I know. You're stunned.

Just about every year, a team mortgages its future to trade up for a quarterback. The Carolina Panthers did it this year, moving up to select Alabama's Bryce Young. Ohio State's C.J. Stroud and Florida's Anthony Richardson joined them inside the top-four picks.

The expectations for those rookies are even higher than the picks required to acquire them. No one remembers that Patrick Mahomes sat as a rookie. Fans want stars, They want wins. And they want them now.

But what are realistic expectations for this year's incoming class of signal-callers? What would constitute a successful rookie season for Richardson? For Young? For Stroud?

What would make Year 1 of their NFL careers a "win?"

Anthony Richardson: Start from the Jump--and Flash

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In the leadup to the 2023 NFL Draft, the general belief among draftniks was that while Anthony Richardson had the most tantalizing package of physical traits, he was also the biggest "project" of the top quarterback prospects. There would be a learning curve. He would likely sit for a while—maybe his entire season.

As Mike Chappell wrote for Fox 59 in Indianapolis, team owner Jim Irsay maintained that it remains head coach Shane Steichen's call when Richardson would start. But he also sounded a lot like a guy who expected that call to come on September 10 against the rival Jaguars.

"You get better by playing," he said. "Practice and preseason games and watching in the quarterback room is great, but, man, I tell ya, you get better by playing. The primary reason why you're starting him opening game is because he gets better by playing. That's the biggest benefit from it. At the same time, I have to say our fans have to have patience because it's hard being the rookie quarterback, it really is. I have to imagine if he plays the whole season it's going to be tough. It's going to be more difficult than easy, I'll put it that way.''

Irsay isn't the only one beating the drum for Richardson. Running back Jonathan Taylor told Horseshoe Huddle that Richardson has the potential to be a force in the NFL.

"Like I mentioned earlier," he said, "as long as he [Richardson] comes in willing to absorb the information, it's going to get real scary out there on the field for opposing defenses."

Mind you, training camp hasn't even gotten here yet. And for all Richardson's gifts, he's still a one-year starter who completed less than 54 percent of his passes last year at Florida. But the hype has already changed the expectations for Richardson. He's going to be expected to beat out Gardner Minshew now and start from the jump.

If that's the case, there are going to be ups and downs. That's inevitable. But there will have to be more of the former than the latter. Flashes of that elite athletic ability. Gaudy rushing totals that cover up some of the passing deficiencies.

There were two quarterbacks drafted ahead of Richardson. His bar for success? Playing better than one of them.

Bryce Young: Compete for an NFC South Title

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Bryce Young was the first overall pick in the 2023 draft. In fact, the Carolina Panthers traded up eight spots to select the former Alabama standout—a trade that didn't come cheaply.

All that ramps up the pressure on Young. He's not just expected to be the best quarterback in his class. He's expected to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He's expected to make that trade worth it. He's expected to lead the Panthers for a decade. To the playoffs. To the Super Bowl.

Other than that…

To his credit, as head coach Frank Reich told reporters after the first day of rookie minicamp, Young already looks the part of an NFL starter in many respects.

"He did everything right, the little throws out in the flat, the little bubble screen stuff that people overthrow -- he threw with accuracy, saw it well, knew where guys were supposed to be,'' Reich said. He just showed complete command.''

Fellow rookie wide receiver Jonathan Mingo saw it too.

"Just knowing the ins and outs of the offense, knowing where everybody is supposed to be, knowing the whole playbook, just having great footwork, knowing his reads,'' he said. "You could tell he knew what he was doing. He's just a great leader by the way he carries himself on and off the field.''

Young may be listed as Andy Dalton's backup for now, but make no mistake—it would be a massive upset if Young isn't out there when the Panthers face the Falcons in Atlanta on September 10.

But it's not just that. Young has to do more than start. More than play well. For Year 1 to be a success, the Panthers need to relevant in a weak NFC South.

C.J. Stroud: Weather the Early Storm

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Ohio State quarterbacks have never had much success in the NFL. Although that's a silly "stat" –the same can be said for any number of high-profile schools (looking at you, USC). But C.J. Stroud enters the NFL looking to change that—and as the highest draft pick at the position in Buckeyes history.

Stroud admittedly faces a daunting task—the second overall pick in this year's draft joins a Houston Texans team that is one of the more talent-deficient clubs in the NFL. But in the early-going at least, Stroud has impressed veteran backup Case Keenum.

"He's been here what? Three weeks maybe?" Keenum told reporters from OTAs. "I would never know that. I would thought he had been here a year, been in the league, been a four-, five-year vet. "He's no-huddle in college. To come in and run a pro-style offense that's wordy. Like, it's not just like 'all go.' There's a lot more than that," Keenum said. "A lot of zip on the ball and great feet. Under center stuff, he's not afraid to try new things and has jumped right in and has not missed a beat."

Davis Mills is still ostensibly the team's starter, but head coach DeMeco Ryans said that Stroud is acclimating well.

"C.J. is progressing well," Ryans said, per Brooks Kubena of the Houston Chronicle. "Each day, he continues to get better, continues to get more comfortable with the verbiage of the offense and his command of the huddle."

Like Stroud and Richardson, the first step toward a successful first season for Stroud is simple—beat out Mills and Keenum and open the season as Houston's starter. From there, it's probably going to be a test of resilience.

Stroud's Buckeyes didn't lose much—4 times in 26 games over the past two years. That's not going to be the case in Houston. There are going to be losses. Quite a few. Winning 6 games in 2023 would probably be a success for Houston.

One of the knocks on Stroud was that he struggles under pressure. He's going to have to show that isn't the case—both during games and between them when the losses start piling up.

Will Levis: Prepare for the Audition of a Lifetime

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Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft was a rough evening for Will Levis. Regarded by some as a top-10 prospect, the entire first round came and went without Levis hearing his name called.

The Tennessee Titans finally stopped Levis' slide, trading up make him the second pick of Round 2. And in some respects, that fall may have helped Levis. Ryan Tannehill is a 34-year-old contract-year quarterback who suffered through an injury-plagued 2022 campaign. There could be an opportunity there.

However, much like his time at Kentucky, the beginning of Levis' tenure with the Titans has been up-and-down. There have been "wow" throws in practice, but also missed reads and off-target passes.

While speaking to reporters after a shaky practice, Levin insisted that he's up for whatever adversity comes his way.

"I know I have more opportunities tomorrow and the next day, so I'm not going to beat myself up," Levis said. "High standards is the name of the game. It's not to beat yourself up. It's to motivate you to go out there and perform to the best of your ability."

Titans quarterbacks coach Charles London talked up Levis' progress so far in camp.

"Will's done a good job of coming in and going to work," London said. "He played in a pro-style offense at Kentucky, so he's been in the huddle, under center and called plays. That's helped his transition so far."

From all indications, Tannehill will be the team's Week 1 starter. But the Titans are (to be brutally honest) not a very good football team. They fell apart in the second half of the season in 2022, and their passing -game weapons may be the worst in the NFL,

When (not if) the Titans fall from playoff contention, there will be zero reason for the team not to roll Levis out there and see what they have. See if he's "the guy" or they need to draft a quarterback for the third straight year in 2024.

Until that day comes, Levis needs to practice like a madman. Absorb every ounce of information he can.

Because his entire career could wind up being defined by how he performs when the call comes.

Best of the Rest

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Hendon Hooker, Detroit Lions

Barring a disaster in Motown, Hooker isn't going to see the field much as a rookie. But Jared Goff carries a cap hit of almost $32 million in 2024. If Goff were to struggle this season, Hooker could get a shot to show he can be the starter of the future in the Motor City. But given his injured knee, this is a decision that will likely occur next offseason. Hooker's priority is simply to get healthy.

Jake Haener, New Orleans Saints

Haener doesn't really have the skill-set of an NFL starter, and unless Derek Carr gets hurt he'll be on clipboard-holding duty for most of his rookie season. Carr did miss a pair of games in 2022, but for the most part he's been durable. Haener just needs to watch, learn from an established pro and be ready to answer the call if needed.

Stetson Bennett, Los Angeles Rams

There's been nothing to indicate that Matthew Stafford won't be under center when the Rams open what could be a long season against the Seahawks in Seattle. But Stafford's neck injury is no joke, and Bennett is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the class. He could well play some as a rookie, and he needs to be ready to show that his ability matters a lot more than his age,

Aidan O' Connell, Las Vegas Raiders

There's no question that in 2023 at least, Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback for the Raiders. But Garoppolo has also missed 18 games over the past three years and is recovering from a serious foot injury. The Raiders have Brian Hoyer backing up Garoppolo now, but if O'Connell can beat him out in training camp, he could see real playing time in 2023.

   

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