Kyrie Irving and LeBron James. Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images

BS Meter: Breaking Down NBA Trade, Draft and Offseason Rumors

Dan Favale

Twenty-eight NBA teams have already entered offseason mode, and the magnitude of mumblings and rumblings are evolving accordingly.

Could LeBron James join forces with Kyrie Irving and Luka Dončić in Dallas? Should Deandre Ayton be testing out the fit of different uniforms? Has Boston already made a decision about the future of Jaylen Brown?

Smaller-time rumors are officially on the back-burner. We have cannonballed into the flashier portion of offseason scuttlebutt. And it's time to start making sense of it all.

To do that, we'll dig through the latest batch of hearsay using our trusty ol' "B.S. Meter." As a friendly reminder, this exercise is not a comment on the validity of reporting. Every tidbit here makes the cut because the information comes from trusted names. Our B.S. meter is instead designed to gauge what we should expect to come from each situation—if anything.

Jaylen Brown Staying in Boston?

Jaylen Brown Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images

If the Boston Celtics make any seismic changes on the heels of their Eastern Conference Finals exit, they won't include Jaylen Brown.

As one rival general manager told Heavy's Steve Bulpett: "From everything I've heard and I know, Boston wants Brown. They see him as a big part of their future."

Buy this to the moon—and back. Brown is coming off a rough conference finals, in which he drilled just 16.3 percent of his three-point attempts and racked up more turnovers (25) than assists (24). But franchise-altering decisions cannot be based off one series.

Marquee talent, specifically, deserves the benefit of the doubt. Brown is an All-Star who has now been the second-best player on consecutive conference finalists. Parts of his game still need work—most notably his ball-handling and playmaking. He will turn 27 in October. Improvement is within the realm of possibility.

Boston's intentions will become clearer in the coming weeks. Brown is eligible for a five-year, $290.3 million supermax extension after making second-team All-NBA. All trade speculation is pointless unless he and the Celtics don't successfully negotiate a new deal.

Verdict: No B.S. detected here. Brown will finish next season on the Celtics.

Phoenix Definitely Trading Deandre Ayton?

Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Hiring Frank Vogel as head coach reportedly won't prevent the Phoenix Suns from moving Deandre Ayton over the offseason.

In fact, on a recent episode of the Hoop Collective podcast, ESPN's Tim MacMahon said he's "pretty sure [Ayton] will be traded this summer," (37:20 mark, h/t Bleacher Report's Joseph Zucker).

No head coaching hire was going to spare the Arizona product from the offseason rumor mill. Phoenix needs to materially deepen its rotation, and he's the most attractive trade chip it can dangle after surrendering first-rounders galore for Kevin Durant.

Still, jettisoning Ayton is a complicated proposition. He has three years and $102.1 million left on his contract. That deal will have net-negative value to most around the league given his offensive inconsistencies and defensive slippage this past season.

Teams will line up to acquire him anyway, though. He will be just 25 in July and has previously shown he can co-anchor a postseason-proof defense.

Whether the Suns get enough in return to bite on their end is a different story. Ayton's value has regressed below centerpiece status. Expectations must be lowered accordingly.

Would Phoenix accept something like Davis Bertans, Tim Hardaway Jr. and the No. 10 pick? Or Ayton-for-Myles Turner straight up? Do Dallas and Indiana, respectively, even offer that much?

Verdict: The Suns will shop Ayton this summer but are more likely to move him at the 2024 trade deadline.

Is Kenny Atkinson a Finalist for Toronto Head Coaching Job?

Kenny Atkinson Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images

The Toronto Raptors now have the NBA's only head coaching vacancy. They reportedly plan to change that soon.

Team president Masai Ujiri and company are plowing through their "final round of interviews," a list that features Virtus Bologna's Sergio Scariolo and Sacramento Kings assistant Jordi Fernandez, according to TSN Sports' Josh Lewenberg.

We can, apparently, also add Golden State Warriors assistant coach Kenny Atkinson to the fold. He was "recently summoned to Toronto for an in-person interview," according to NBA Insider Marc Stein. That suggests he's a finalist for the gig—along with Memphis Grizzlies assistant Darko Rajaković, who was also mentioned by Stein.

This makes sense. Most of the highest-profile names have already committed to other jobs. Monty Williams went to Detroit. Ime Udoka signed with Houston. Adrian Griffin, Toronto's own assistant, landed in Milwaukee. Even if the Raptors prefer to journey off the familiar path, their due diligence was always going to include at least one of the most popular available candidates.

Good luck handicapping who they hire, though. Their head coaching search has been extensive and devoid of any clarity.

Verdict: Atkinson is among the final candidates for Toronto's gig, but to what extent that matters remains unclear.

LeBron James to Dallas?

LeBron James and Kyrie Irving Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

League sources told Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes that free agent Kyrie Irving "wants the Dallas Mavericks to explore trading for LeBron James this offseason to create a Big 3 alongside himself and Luka Dončić."

Congratulations to Kyrie on putting down hypothetical roots in Dallas sturdy enough to anchor whimsical scenarios with virtually no chance of coming to fruition.

Let's assume LeBron is willing to demand a trade. The Mavs' best offer would include some combination of the No. 10 pick, one more future first, Josh Green, Jaden Hardy and salary filler. That's not beating out a market open to the rest of the league.

LeBron insisting he'll only play in Dallas would help. But paying him and Dončić while signing Kyrie to the max leaves the Mavs with almost $134 million committed to three players. Next year's salary cap is expected to come in somewhere around $134 million. Fleshing out the rest of the roster becomes almost unworkable under the new CBA.

Any LeBron-Kyrie reunion begins with someone taking a massive pay cut. Sources suggested to Haynes that James could broker a buyout with the Lakers and join the Mavs. That's not happening. Even a superstar-pleasing organization like L.A. isn't losing LeBron for nothing.

Kyrie is the free agent. If he wants to play with James next season, it'll happen in Los Angeles—but only if he accepts an astonishing discount, since the Lakers have neither the cap space nor flexibility in sign-and-trades to bankroll his $46.9 million max salary.

Verdict: Kyrie is more likely to team up with LeBron on the Lakers than in Dallas.

Lakers Keeping the No. 17 Pick?

Darvin Ham and Rob Pelinka Allen Berezovsky/Getty Images

On a less groundbreaking Lakers Land note, Los Angeles is "most likely" going to keep the No. 17 pick in the June 22 draft, according to The Athletic's Jovan Buha.

File this one under the gigantic-asterisk umbrella.

Sure, the Lakers could keep No. 17. Cost-controlled depth is important for any team that has maxed out its payroll and flexibility. But they are on an ultra-urgent timeline. LeBron James is entering his age-39 season. If they can flip No. 17 for a proven impact player, they must do it.

This, of course, puts L.A. at the mercy of the trade market. There will be interest in No. 17, but to what end? Does attaching it to extra salary get another rotation player? Will the Lakers look to move it as part of a larger package featuring their 2029 or 2030 first-rounder?

There's no guarantee L.A. moves this pick on draft night. That's merely business as usual. Certain opportunities won't materialize until after free agency. Unless LeBron retires or demands a trade, the Lakers will be at the forefront of that activity.

Verdict: The Lakers are more likely to move than keep whomever they draft at No. 17.

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.

   

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