After analyzing data, consulting with scouts and considering past trends, we've pinpointed five NBA draft prospects in the 2023 class who carry a higher level of risk than others.

Included in this list are three potential top-five picks with a considerable weakness or statistical blemish that might create unsettling risk in the range they're projected.

We've only included red flags stemming from on-court evaluations. We'll leave it to NBA teams to account for off-the-court issues.

Emoni Bates: Inefficiency

Position: SF

Team: Eastern Michigan

Age: 19

Red flags: Negative impact/inefficiency

While Emoni Bates' draft stock has taken a massive hit over the past two seasons, there will still be teams enticed by the idea of buying low on a 6'8" shot-maker. The numbers say teams should ultimately resist the urge.

There aren't many success stories involving prospects who were drafted with negative box-plus minuses. There have been no regular NBA rotation players who registered negative BPMs twice in college like Bates (Kevin Murphy, Johnny O'Bryant, Colton Iverson, Abdel Nader).

Bates would also be the first player picked with a usage over 30.0 percent, an assist rate under 10.0 percent and a true shooting percentage as low as his 52.8 percent. His combination of shot-hunting, tunnel vision and inefficiency is essentially unheard of for an NBA prospect.

Throw in the facts he graded as one of the least athletic wings at the combine, he has managed to lose weight (now 179.2 pounds) since arriving at Memphis when adding bulk was a priority, and he'd have a negative wingspan (6'9") if the NBA measured prospects in shoes this year (6'8.25" in socks), and the amount of basketball-related red flags may be too difficult to ignore, even in the second round.

Jett Howard: Lack of Versatility

Position: SG/SF

Team: Michigan

Age: 19

Red Flags: Lack of production outside of scoring

Jett Howard entered the NBA draft discussion early with persuasive shot-making, but there was a chance we jumped the gun when projecting lottery or even top-20 interest.

The lack of ancillary stats—and the weaknesses it may signal—should be concerning for teams that are thinking about Howard in the first round.

He's on the verge of joining Joseph Young, Max Christie, Jabari Bird, Tony Snell, Marcus Thornton (Williams & Mary) and Doron Lamb as the only prospects to get drafted with a college season of having a defensive rebounding percentage under 10.0, an assist rate under 15.0 and a steal percentage under 1.0.

It's elite shot-making or bust for Howard, who shot 36.8 percent on 7.3 three-point attempts per game.

In 922 minutes, he totaled just eight offensive boards and 12 steals, remarkably low numbers that mostly highlight poor quickness and physicality, which could affect his creation and finishing as well. He rarely got to the rim (25 makes in half court) and shot just 45.9 percent on lay-ups, per Synergy Sports.

Still, teams have expressed the most concern with his defense and how vulnerable he was guarding ball-handlers and wings.

Howard's shooting versatility remains a selling point, but it may be wise for teams to picture more of a one-dimensional specialist than a full-time scorer who'll help power an offense.

Amen and Ausar Thompson: Shooting

Amen: PG/SG, Ausar: SG/SF

Team: Overtime Elite

Ages: 20

Red flags: Shooting (for high draft pick)

Amen and Ausar Thompson are earning workouts and consideration from teams drafting in the top five. Yet every conversation about their upside and fit includes some mention or caution about poor shooting and questionable mechanics.

Teams interested have to measure the likelihood of two things: The twins' jumpers improving, and each brothers' effectiveness if they don't.

The numbers say Amen is more limited, and the eye test doesn't ease any concerns. Not much about his shoulder alignment, release point or fluidity is traditional; and between the bad misses and 65.6 free-throw percentage, there are enough reasons to be skeptical about his shooting development.

With Amen, teams can at least feel comfortable banking on his playmaking, as passing is often translatable, and he possesses the handle, elusiveness and vision to continue excelling as an elite shot-creator for teammates.

Ausar is more of a scorer and dependent on shot-making. He's the bigger threat from outside right now, and scouts have noticed some encouraging tweaked mechanics during the pre-draft process.

Finishing at 33.3 percent from three between the regular season and playoffs (six games), Ausar went out on a high note, though he never strung together convincing consistency.

He's not as natural of a facilitator as his brother while also being super turnover prone and shaky with his decision-making and shot selection. It's difficult to picture a high-usage top option if Ausar doesn't make steady progress into a regular shooting threat.

Nick Smith Jr.: Rim Pressure, No Left Hand

Position: SG

Team: Arkansas

Age: 19

Red flags: Lack of rim pressure, left hand

Though knee issues limited Nick Smith Jr. to just 17 games, there was enough evidence of a flawed driver, which could be problematic for a 185-pound guard dependent on scoring.

He attempted just 33 shots at the rim in the half court all season (18 makes). Spacing deserves some blame, but without a great deal of burst or strength, he shot 3-of-16 on drives to the basket as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and 2-of-14 on dribble handoff scoring chances.

It wasn't shocking when Smith opted to skip athletic testing and measurements at the NBA combine.

Smith clearly had trouble turning the corner. And it often looked like he wanted no part of a layup attempt, instead rushing early floaters or settling for contested pull-ups.

The scouting report also shows a guard who really struggles attacking from the left side. He shot 0-of-5 on lefty drives out of isolation, 2-of-9 on spot-up drives going left and 0-of-11 as a finisher in transition from the left wing.

Smith may wind up extremely reliant on tough shot-making, especially considering the lack of playmaking he was able to show this past season. And he still only shot 34.5 percent on jump shots and 30.9 percent on runners/floaters.

Cam Whitmore: Playmaking

Position: SF/PF

Team: Villanova

Age: 18

Red Flags: Playmaking rate, off-the-dribble offense

Cam Whitmore's playmaking issues are moderately alarming, but they create more fear for the teams that will be considering him in the first half of the lottery.

While the explosiveness, power and shot-making appear translatable and prop up his floor, a 6.4 assist percentage is historically low (for a top wing prospect) and highlights flaws with his off-the-dribble skill, awareness and decision-making.

NBA rotational wings who were drafted and had an NCAA season with an assist percentage below 10.0 have been mostly shooting experts: Desmond Bane, Malik Beasley, Corey Kispert, AJ Griffin, Ochai Agbaji, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cameron Thomas, Trey Murphy, Terrence Ross, Reggie Bullock, Harrison Barnes, Saddiq Bey. The others include Patrick Williams, Rui Hachimura, Franz Wagner, Josh Hart, TJ Warren, Marcus Morris and Kelly Oubre—solid role players, but not the type you'd use such an early pick on (outside of Wagner).

Whitmore shows signs of tunnel vision after making his first move to the rack, resulting in forced, contested finishes and collisions. And he shot 3-of-16 on two-point jumpers (27.5 percent on total pull-ups) with just two runner/floater makes all season.

The big question is if Whitmore will be able to self-create at a high-enough level to consistently score in the half court. Because it's unlikely he offers any playmaking value. And at 34.3 percent on just 4.2 three-point attempts, plus a 70.0 free-throw mark, there isn't convincing evidence that he'll be one of the NBA shooters who can afford to not add positive creation and passing.

Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports, Sports-Reference.com, Barttorvik.com.