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Trevor Lawrence Ready to Join Elite QBs, Lead Jaguars on NFL Playoff Run in 2023

Brent Sobleski

Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen. Joe Burrow. Trevor Lawrence?

Lawrence's developmental curve indicates he'll enter the league's elite pantheon of top quarterbacks this season and carry his Jacksonville Jaguars to greater heights as the favorite to win another division crown and make some noise during the 2023 postseason.

"He's chasing that. He's close to putting himself with that group," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said during an interview on The Rich Eisen Show (h/t SB Nation's Simon Carroll). "Those guys have a couple of years experience on him but he's heading in that direction.

"The AFC is in good hands overall with that youth in quarterback, and we're really confident in Trevor working with the skill and talent we've put around him to get himself into that conversation. That growth, that leadership, we just need to continue to see it as we head into training camp in July and August."

To Pederson's final point, the Jaguars did a solid job keeping last year's core intact. After the disastrous 2021 campaign that essentially became a lost season for then-rookie Lawrence because of Urban Meyer's ineptitude, Jacksonville rebounded with a 9-8 record under Pederson's supervision and won the AFC South.

Granted, the AFC South isn't exactly a trial by fire when compared to other divisions. But the title is an important step for the franchise after four consecutive seasons of six or fewer victories, including back-to-back years with the draft's No. 1 overall selection.

Aside from the 2017 aberration when the Jags found themselves in the AFC Championship Game, the organization didn't experience another winning season between the 2008 to 2021 campaigns.

While Pederson provided competent leadership, Lawrence is the real differentiator. His ascendency in a stable environment seemed inevitable. After all, he's been the chosen one since his freshman year at Cartersville High School.

He is the state of Georgia's all-time leading passer. He was the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2018 class. As a true freshman, the then-19-year-old eventually took the starting job from upperclassman Kelly Bryant and helped lead the Clemson Tigers to a national title.

From that point forward, it was only a matter of time before the 6'6", 220-pound signal-caller heard his name called at the top of the draft. The Jaguars obliged, to make Lawrence the highest-regarded underclassman among quarterback prospects to ever enter the professional ranks.

The talent has always been obvious, but talented passers flame out of the NFL every year. Nothing is fully guaranteed. The fact that Lawrence didn't light up opponents as a rookie shows how difficult it can be to play the game's most important position at the highest level.

AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

Pederson's calming presence allowed Lawrence and Co. to find a groove and excel, particularly after last season's Week 11 bye.

"I give all the credit to Coach Pederson," Lawrence said, per NFL Network's Cameron Wolfe. "The mindset and belief that he brought to this team. It all starts with him and trickles down to everyone else."

Jacksonville won six of its last seven games. During that stretch, Lawrence completed 67.8 percent of his passes with a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ration. Upon reaching Christmas, the sophomore gunslinger held the league's best second-half grade among quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus.

Overall, the Jaguars quarterback threw for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He also finished among the league's top 10 with a 95.2 quarterback rating. His five percent big-time throw rate tied for fourth last season, per PFF.

Lawrence's ability to drive balls into tight windows and make difficult throws look easy—plus the requisite athleticism to avoid pressure in the pocket and create if necessary—show he's capable of being counted among the league's elite.

Pederson sees it, too.

"I think going into his year three—year two with us—as a staff, I think the way he played the back half of the season is the way he needs to start this year," he told Eisen. "There was a lot of confidence at the end of the year with him, and that's the next phase, right? It's putting all of that together, and we feel, or I feel too, like he's the guy that, you know, which he showed towards the end of the year, he can put the team on his back."

The flashes of greatness have already been seen. To become a consistently great passer, the 23-year-old will need help from those around him.

Mahomes, Allen and Burrow aren't quite themselves without Travis Kelce, Stefon Diggs and Ja'Marr Chase, respectively. The supporting cast that Pederson talked about earlier has been improved.

James Gilbert/Getty Images

First, Calvin Ridley will now be in the lineup after being suspended for the entirety of last season because he bet on NFL games. Prior to the infraction, he had been one of the game's most promising young targets, with a 1,374-yard season in 2020.

Jacksonville acquired him by sending 2023 sixth- and 2024 fourth-round draft picks to the Atlanta Falcons. The wide receiver expects to be even better upon his return to the field.

"Right now, I feel stronger than I've ever felt—mentally and physically," Ridley wrote for The Players' Tribune in March. "On the field, I'm flying. Believe me, I'm flying. That GPS band don't lie. On my daughter's name, if I'm healthy? With Trevor Lawrence? I'm giving Jacksonville 1,400 yards a season, period."

The 28-year-old adds to an already impressive group of skill-position performers.

Running back Travis Etienne Jr. ran for 1,125 yards in his first full season. Christian Kirk posted career-highs in receptions (84), receiving yards (1,108) and touchdown catches (eight) during his first year in Duval. Zay Jones snagged a career-high 82 balls as well. Pederson's staff became the first to properly use former first-round tight end Evan Engram. As a result, he is now under the franchise tag and discussing a long-term contract extension.

Furthermore, general manager Trent Baalke used the team's initial three draft selections to bolster the offense.

The free-agent loss of Jawaan Taylor prompted the selection of Anton Harrison with this year's 27th overall pick. Harrison already started the transition from left to right tackle.

"It's going good, just taking it day by day, like you said, just being in one spot," Harrison told Jaguar Report's John Shipley. "So I'm at right tackle every day just getting better at it, perfecting my craft."

AP Photo/Gary McCullough

Walker Little will be forced to man Lawrence's blind side until Cam Robinson returns from his suspension for a violation of the performance-enhancing drug policy.

Otherwise, the Jaguars' 10th-ranked offensive remains pretty much intact, with further additions at tight end and running back in this year's second- and third-round selections of Brenton Strange and Tank Bigsby.

Lawrence's comfort level and confidence should spike. Exciting young talent can be found at multiple positions. A few strong veteran voices, particularly right guard Brandon Scherff, can be counted upon as well. The Jaguars should build upon last year's success, starting with the man behind center.

The rest of the AFC South isn't positioned to challenge the Jags' newfound supremacy.

The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts should be better after last year's performances, though rookie quarterbacks will be behind center and Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud will experience their fair share of ups and downs. The Tennessee Titans, meanwhile, appear to be trending down and could start their own rookie quarterback, Will Levis.

The real challenge comes in the postseason, where the Jags already showed they can play with the Chiefs. In fact, Jacksonville trailed by only three points in the fourth quarter during their AFC Divisional Playoff meeting before falling short.

Natural progression from Lawrence and the fortifications made among the rest of the offense indicate the Jaguars are primed to make yet another leap. They went from worst to a division winner in one year.

Now, Lawrence should step into the same stratosphere as the game's very best. In doing so, the Jaguars will go from a good story to a potential Super Bowl contender.

Brent Sobleski covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @brentsobleski.

   

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