New York Mets' Kodai Senga Mike Stobe/Getty Images

How Are MLB Offseason Winners and Losers Faring Thus Far in 2023?

Kerry Miller

Before the start of spring training, it seemed like everyone churned out offseason grades for each MLB team.

We (Zach Rymer) did one. ESPN did one. The Athletic did one. USA Today did one.

While there wasn't a single team that received the same grade from all four sources, there was a clear consensus as far as who won and who lost the offseason: Philadelphia, San Diego and both New York teams were the biggest winners; Cincinnati, Colorado and the White Sox were the biggest losers. (We're also including the Twins among the winners and the Orioles among the losers, as they were on the cusp of joining those respective groups.)

How have those teams actually performed, though?

Have the winners capitalized on their big moves?

Have the losers been able to overcome their missteps to exceed expectation?

For each team, we'll recap what moves they made from early November through late March and reflect a bit on why they won or lost the offseason. Then, a brief synopsis on how things have gone through the first 10 weeks of the regular season.

Teams are presented in no particular order, aside from oscillating between winners and losers.

Statistics current through the start of play Tuesday.

Offseason Winner: San Diego Padres

San Diego's Xander Bogaerts Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Gained: Xander Bogaerts, Matt Carpenter, Seth Lugo, Nelson Cruz, Michael Wacha, Rougned Odor, Brent Honeywell Jr.

Lost: Josh Bell, Mike Clevinger, Brandon Drury, Pierce Johnson, Sean Manaea, Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar

Re-Signed/Extended: Robert Suarez, Nick Martinez, Craig Stammen, Yu Darvish, Manny Machado

How It Started

Not only did the Padres land one of the four marquee shortstops on the free-agent market (Bogaerts) and lock up Machado on a long-term deal (through 2033) before he could exercise the opt-out clause in his contract after this season, but they also upgraded their starting rotation in replacing Clevinger and Manaea with Wacha and Lugo.

They had to spend a boatload of money to make it happen, but they entered the season as one of the top candidates to win what would be the first World Series title in franchise history.

Even though San Diego was still projected to finish behind the Dodgers in the NL West, the Padres were, arguably, the biggest offseason winner of all.

How It's Going

Not great.

Bogaerts is providing a decent amount of "wins above replacement" value. However, after hitting .299 with an .835 OPS from 2015-22, he is sitting on marks of .252 and .725, respectively. The Padres spent big on a five-time Silver Slugger who had gotten AL MVP votes in each of the past five years, but the 30-year-old shortstop simply hasn't been as special as they were hoping for.

But Bogaerts falling a bit short of expectation is the least of San Diego's troubles, as the Friars have a lineup littered with black holes and a starting rotation that has been just kind of "meh" across the board for a team floundering four games below .500.

The high-priced starting pitchers are looking much better as of late, though, and they recently got Machado back from a couple of weeks on the IL with a fractured hand. If he can start pulling his weight in a batting order that needs its stars to deliver, it could be the catalyst they need to go on a tear.

Offseason Loser: Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati's Wil Myers Jeff Dean/Getty Images

Gained: Wil Myers, Kevin Newman, Luke Maile, Casey Legumina, Curt Casali, Luke Weaver, Jason Vosler

Lost: Donovan Solano, Justin Wilson, Mike Minor, Kyle Farmer, Dauri Moreta, Blake Sabol, Mike Moustakas

Re-signed/Extended: N/A

How It Started

ESPN, USA Today and our Zach Rymer all gave the Reds an F for an offseason grade, although that seems unduly harsh for a franchise that clearly embraced "rebuilding mode" ahead of the 2022 trade deadline.

Don't get me wrong: I'm not trying to argue Cincinnati had a good offseason. Basically the only things of note the Reds did was sign Myers to a one-year, $7.5 million deal (for some strange reason) and cut Moustakas (even though he was still owed $22 million).

What more could/should they have done, though, in advance of a 2023 season that was more or less expected to be an open audition for every role beginning in 2024—a.k.a. the post-Joey Votto era of Cincinnati baseball? Adding more veterans would have just gotten in the way of trying to figure out what the young guys can do.

How It's Going

At the dish, the Reds are actually pretty good. Like, "entered Wednesday leading the National League in on-base percentage before winning in walk-off fashion against the Dodgers for a second straight night" good. Not much slugging worth mentioning outside of Elly De La Cruz and maybe Matt McLain, but they've got a lineup full of guys worthy of batting in either the 2-hole or the 6-hole.

Unfortunately, the starting pitching has been mostly dreadful, save for Hunter Greene and, quite unexpectedly over the past couple of weeks, Ben Lively. And that is why Cincinnati has one of the worst run differentials in the National League and is likely to end the season in the NL Central basement, despite winning 29 of its first 62 games.

Lot of intriguing building blocks, though. And at least Cincinnati is nowhere near "Oakland bad" or "Kansas City bad" in its rebuild.

Offseason Winner: New York Yankees

New York's Aaron Judge Harry How/Getty Images

Gained: Carlos Rodón, Tommy Kahnle, Franchy Cordero, Willie Calhoun

Lost: Andrew Benintendi, Jameson Taillon, Matt Carpenter, Miguel Castro, Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Marwin Gonzalez, Chad Green, Lucas Luetge

Re-signed/Extended: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Jake Bauers

How It Started

First and foremost, the Yankees held onto Judge in what was the biggest (non) move of the entire MLB offseason. It cost them $360 million, and goodness only knows how the last couple of seasons of that nine-year deal will work out for them, but they had to bring back the home run king. They were also able to re-up with Rizzo for another two years.

As far as new acquisitions go, the only big one was Rodón, but that was (supposed to be) a huge pickup. Among pitchers who hit free agency this past offseason, only Jacob deGrom ($185 million) signed for more total money than the six-year, $162 million contract the Yankees gave Rodón.

How It's Going

Well, the Rodón portion has been a colossal bust thus far, as the oft-injured starter has yet to make his pinstripes debut due to the combination of a forearm injury and a lingering back issue. And while they wait for him to take the mound, they haven't gotten much out of Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Severino or Jhony Brito, each of whom entered Tuesday with an ERA north of 5.00.

But Judge (.291 AVG, 19 HR) and Rizzo (.289 AVG, 11 HR) have been basically the entire offense for a team that is somehow 10 games over .500 in spite of the missing/poor starting pitching.

The Yankees are only in third place in the loaded AL East, but they're on pace for approximately 95 wins, which is about what was expected.

Offseason Loser: Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore's Kyle Gibson Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Gained: Adam Frazier, Kyle Gibson, Mychal Givens, James McCann, Ryan O'Hearn, Cole Irvin

Lost: Jordan Lyles, Jesus Aguilar, Rougned Odor, Robinson Chirinos

Re-signed/Extended: N/A

How It Started

The Orioles made it sound like they were going to do a decent amount of spending this offseason, and then they just...didn't.

Yes, they signed Gibson to a one-year, $10 million deal, but that was merely a repurposing of the money they saved by declining Lyles' $11 million team option. And if it weren't for Gibson, the O's highest-paid player this season would be Chris Davis' $9.2 million deferred salary.

Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Orioles ended last season with a payroll of $60.4 million and opened this season at $60.9 million. And for a team that broke through last season to win 83 games, doing effectively nothing to get better over the offseason was a major disappointment.

How It's Going

The O's have been much better than expected and would make the playoffs with room to spare if the season ended today.

That's largely because of the one-two bullpen punch of Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista, who have allowed a combined total of eight earned runs in 61.1 innings of work. Bautista did pitch well last season as a rookie, but Cano has come out of nowhere after posting an 11.50 ERA in 2022.

It still feels like Baltimore needs to do something significant at the trade deadline, though, lest it risk fading if Cano and/or Bautista come back to earth even a little bit. Adding one more bat and another starting pitcher would be huge, but let's see if this is where they finally do some spending in the ultra-competitive AL East.

Offseason Winner: Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia's Trea Turner Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images

Gained: Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker, Matt Strahm, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Vasquez, Gregory Soto, Kody Clemens, Josh Harrison, Cristian Pache

Lost: Kyle Gibson, Brad Hand, Corey Knebel, David Robertson, Noah Syndergaard, Zach Eflin, Jean Segura, Matt Vierling, Nick Maton, Donny Sands

Re-signed/Extended: Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez

How It Started

There was quite a bit of offseason moving and shaking for the National League champs, but it sure felt like the Phillies gained more talent than they lost, headlined by the $300 million acquisition of Turner.

Between Bryson Stott, Didi Gregorius and Johan Camargo, shortstop was a season-long shortcoming for the Phillies in 2022. So they backed up the Brink's truck for a former division rival who had hit .303 with a 162-game pace of 24 home runs and 45 stolen bases over the previous seven seasons.

Signing Walker to a four-year, $72 million deal was also a big move for a team that needed to replace both Syndergaard and Eflin in the rotation.

How It's Going

Those two biggest acquisitions have amounted to a whole lot of nothing.

Turner finally had a huge night Monday against the Tigers with four hits and a pair of home runs, but he entered that game batting .232 and was on pace to finish the season with 14 home runs.

Meanwhile, Walker looks nothing like he did over the past two years with the Mets, currently saddled with a 5.04 ERA that is worse than he finished any previous season (even after tossing a gem Tuesday night).

Really, though, it feels like no one on this team is meeting or exceeding expectations, save for maybe Stott, Vasquez and then Bryce Harper coming back quicker from Tommy John surgery than anyone thought would be possible.

But it wasn't until early June that the Phillies started to hit their stride last year, and they can do it again.

Offseason Loser: Chicago White Sox

Chicago's Andrew Benintendi Quinn Harris/Getty Images

Gained: Mike Clevinger, Gregory Santos, Andrew Benintendi, Keynan Middleton, Hanser Alberto

Lost: José Abreu, Johnny Cueto, Vince Velasquez, AJ Pollock, Adam Engel

Re-signed/Extended: Elvis Andrus

How It Started

A big part of the reason everyone gave the White Sox a failing offseason grade is because the articles were written in early February, when Clevinger was under investigation for allegedly violating Major League Baseball's domestic violence policy.

But even after Clevinger was cleared by MLB in early March, Chicago's offseason still felt pretty half-assed.

Clevinger—who in 2022 had a 4.33 ERA and by far the worst strikeout rate of his career in his first year back from Tommy John surgery—was Chicago's solution to losing both Cueto and Velasquez. It was a questionable move, at best, as was the decision to give $75 million to the light-hitting Benintendi in order to slide Andrew Vaughn to first base to replace Abreu.

After a massively disappointing 2022 campaign, we expected the White Sox to be more aggressive in the offseason. Alas.

How It's Going

Those two primary offseason moves actually worked out pretty well. Clevinger has been darn near the best starting pitcher for the White Sox. And while Benintendi hasn't been anything special, at least his OPS is about 150 points better than what Abreu is doing for Houston.

Chicago also hit the jackpot with unheralded middle reliever Keynan Middleton, who has a 1.33 ERA after a mark of 5.10 over the previous three seasons.

And yet, the White Sox remain a mess, sitting at 12-24 overall in games played outside of their pathetic division. Luis Robert Jr. has been a star, but the high-priced assets haven't been pulling their weight.

Lance Lynn, Yasmani Grandal, Yoán Moncada, Liam Hendriks and Tim Anderson are each making at least $12.5 million this season for a combined total of $81.4 million.

For all that money, they have produced a combined total of negative-1.1 Baseball-Reference wins above replacement (although Hendriks tallying 1.0 wins above stage four non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma was awesome).

Offseason Winner: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota's Carlos Correa David Berding/Getty Images

Gained: Kyle Farmer, Christian Vázquez, Pablo López, Joey Gallo, Willi Castro, Michael A. Taylor, Donovan Solano

Lost: Luis Arraez, Michael Fulmer, Miguel Sano, Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela

Re-signed/Extended: Carlos Correa, Chris Paddack

How It Started

Minnesota's offseason was a slow burn.

Save for trading away Urshela and trading for Farmer, the Twins didn't do much of anything until mid-December when they signed Vázquez. Then they signed Gallo. Then Castro. Then they managed to bring back Correa in mid-January after his offseason saga for the history books. After that came the trades for López and Taylor. And slowly but surely, the Twins had built up a legitimate contender.

In getting rid of a batting champ (Arraez) while bringing in two strikeout magnets in Gallo and Taylor, there were reasonable concerns that Minnesota would post the worst batting average in the majors. But the hope was they could still win the division with improved slugging and the addition of a potential ace to the rotation.

How It's Going

For as much as we have bemoaned the overall state of affairs between the AL Central and NL Central, the Twins have been pretty solid. They have yet to open up a commanding lead in the division, but they entered Tuesday with the sixth best run differential in the majors, trailing only the Rays, Rangers, Astros, Braves and Dodgers in that department.

And that's with Correa playing some of the worst baseball of his career. If he ever turns things around, Minnesota should start to feel like a real World Series contender. (If he never turns things around, though, that $200 million contract is going to get painful in a hurry.)

Gallo has gone on the IL twice already and is whiffing a ton, but he's leading the team with 11 home runs. Taylor has seven home runs and 10 stolen bases and has been a defensive upgrade in center. López pitched great out of the gate, but he has had some tough luck since mid-April. He should bounce back soon for what has been the most valuable starting rotation in the majors, per FanGraphs.

Offseason Loser: Colorado Rockies

Colorado's Jurickson Profar Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Gained: Jurickson Profar, Pierce Johnson, Brent Suter, Nolan Jones, Brad Hand, Harold Castro, Connor Seabold, Mike Moustakas

Lost: Carlos Estevez, Alex Colome, Chad Kuhl, Jose Iglesias, Sam Hilliard, Connor Joe, Juan Brito

Re-signed/Extended: Jose Urena, Tyler Kinley

How It Started

They only have themselves to blame for it, but the Rockies were stuck in no man's land this offseason. They've been handing out back-loaded contracts like hotcakes in recent years, which resulted in Kris Bryant, German Marquez, Kyle Freeland and Ryan McMahon getting a combined pay bump of $21.5 million just for getting a year older. They also owe Nolan Arenado $16 million in 2023 from that whole debacle of a trade three offseasons ago.

But rather than cutting costs elsewhere or going in the opposite direction by making another Bryant-type of splash in free agency, the Rockies seemed to just kind of make moves for the sake of making moves.

If Profar hadn't fallen into their lap in late March, it would've felt like the only thing they did was shift some things around in the bullpen.

How It's Going

As seems to always be the case in Colorado, the pitching is just plain not good. Only the Oakland A's have allowed more runs this season, and that's not saying much.

And the "big" moves the Rockies did make this offseason have not worked out in the slighest.

Profar was the biggest acquisition, and he has been a bust thus far, ranking almost dead last in fWAR among qualified position players.

Johnson was their second-biggest pickup, and while he does have 11 saves, he has a 6.56 ERA and appears to have finally lost the closer job to Justin Lawrence.

They're treading water barely ahead of the Nationals and the Cardinals, but with a negative-63 run differential, it feels inevitable the Rockies will finish in last place in the NL.

Offseason Winner: New York Mets

New York's Justin Verlander Kyle Cooper/Colorado Rockies/Getty Images

Gained: Justin Verlander, Elieser Hernandez, Brooks Raley, José Quintana, David Robertson, Kodai Senga, Omar Narvaez, Tommy Pham

Lost: Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Tyler Naquin, Trevor Williams, Mychal Givens, Joely Rodriguez, Dominic Smith, James McCann

Re-signed/Extended: Edwin Díaz, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Hunter

How It Started

After losing the NL East on a tiebreaker and getting immediately bounced from the postseason by the Padres, Steve Cohen came to the conclusion that mo' money would mean no problems, increasing the Mets payroll by more than 25 percent from $268 million to $345 million in the process of re-signing several key players and adding a ton of pitching to replace all that they lost to free agency.

Verlander was fresh off a remarkable Cy Young campaign. Quintana had an incredible 2022 season of his own. So, it felt like if Senga and his "ghost fork" were anywhere near as good as advertised, the Mets—who still had Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and Tylor Megill in the rotation, too—would be able to pitch their way to a World Series, even without deGrom.

How It's Going

A five-game losing streak has brought the Mets down to 30-32, and they wouldn't make the playoffs if the regular season ended today, which would be a disaster given their historic payroll.

Injury has had a lot to do with it. Díaz suffered that awful knee injury in the World Baseball Classic and isn't expected to pitch this season. Quintana has yet to pitch, either, as he recovers from an offseason graft surgery in his rib cage. And Verlander missed the first five weeks and has oscillated between great and poor starts since his return.

When you're spending more than five times as much as the 13 games above .500 Baltimore Orioles, though, you're supposed to be able to withstand a few IL stints and still contend for a pennant. (Or, you know, at least post a positive run differential.) But even with Pete Alonso leading the majors with 22 home runs, the Mets haven't been able to get their act together.

   

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