Major League Baseball's 2023 trade deadline (August 1) is rapidly approaching, and with it, the gap between the haves and have nots is widening.
As of Saturday night, there were 10 teams—A's, Cubs, Guardians, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers and White Sox—with +400 or worse odds of making the postseason, per DraftKings. Players from those teams make up the vast majority of our updated top 25 ranking of trade deadline candidates.
We're also including a couple of intriguing trade candidates from both the Marlins (+180) and Giants (+190), as those are the two NL teams who figure to drop out of contention if the Phillies (+175) or Padres (-120) ever decide to start winning games. (Also, there's one player from the Yankees, which should make sense when we get to him.)
Contract situations for each of the 25 players are included (along with their stats for this season), but the money doesn't factor into the ranking. Rather, it's a ranking of the 25 best players who figure to be available.
Before getting into that ranking, we'll start with a discussion on players who have been frequently mentioned as possible trade candidates, but who we don't see going anywhere at this point in time.
Statistics current through the start of play on Sunday.
Honorable Mentions: Lance Lynn, Yasmani Grandal, Kendall Graveman*, Kyle Hendricks*, Michael Fulmer, Brent Suter, Yuli Gurriel, Rich Hill*
*Reasonable trade candidates from the 10 teams listed above who could rank in the top 25, but who we don't consider likely to be traded.
Noteworthy Players Not Included in Top 25
We included some honorable mentions at the end of the intro, but this is more of an "honorably not mentioned" tier of players. These guys figure to be brought up often in the next two months as trade block candidates, but—at least at this point in time—we find it hard to believe they will actually be on the move.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels: The ultimate name that has come up as a trade candidate on a daily basis for a full calendar year. So long as the Angels have a snowball's chance in hell of making the playoffs, though, it's not going to happen.
Juan Soto, San Diego Padres: Frankly, another Soto blockbuster is feeling more likely than an Ohtani blockbuster, given San Diego's poor record, the sheer amount of long-term money the Padres have already committed elsewhere, the financial uncertainty stemming from the ongoing mess with TV rights payments and the fact that the Yankees could really use a left fielder. However, the Padres will/should be reluctant to so quickly part with the young phenom they gave up so much of their farm system to acquire.
Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers: Even though the Brewers have a negative run differential and feel like a team that would have a short-lived run in the postseason if they do win the NL Central, it's hard to imagine they'll be willing to part with their co-aces unless they really tank in the standings over the course of the next eight weeks. However, if they do make Burnes available—and assuming the Angels stand pat with Ohtani—he would be the top pitcher on the market, and by a country mile.
Tyler O'Neill, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery and Jordan Hicks, St. Louis Cardinals: See: Brewers, Milwaukee. The three pitchers are all impending free agents, and O'Neill was a popular name in trade rumors dating back to last summer. But in a wide-open division—and with no good reason to think that 2024 will be a rebuilding year in St. Louis—the Cardinals are more likely to be buyers than sellers.
Alex Lange (Detroit Tigers), Alexis Díaz (Cincinnati Reds) and David Bednar (Pittsburgh Pirates): For some strange reason, "good closer" plus "team that probably won't finish with a winning record" has come to equal "on the trade block" in recent years, regardless of how many years of team control still remain on said closer. But I don't buy it. The Pirates have Bednar through 2026; the Tigers and Reds have Lange and Díaz through at least 2027. They're not going anywhere.
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox: The White Sox may well embrace a fire sale, but Cease is one of the few players you have to assume they won't be looking to deal, as he doesn't hit free agency until after the 2025 campaign. Getting rid of him would be a signal to fans that they don't expect to be relevant again until at least three seasons from now.
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians: We do have a couple of Guardians in the top 25, but Bieber still has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining for a team that both could find its way back into the mix for this year's AL Central crown and also should expect to win the division in 2024. Maybe they explore trading him if they've already decided they don't want to pay what will be an eight-figure salary next season, but it's unlikely they've reached that conclusion.
Seth Brown, Oakland A's: Brown turns 31 next month and therefore isn't part of Oakland's long-term rebuilding plans, even though he still has 3.5 years remaining before free agency. However, he isn't hitting well and he missed about six weeks with an oblique injury. We're not doubting Oakland's willingness to trade him away, but rather questioning whether there's much of a market for his services.
Nos. 25-22: Carlos Santana, Dylan Floro, Keynan Middleton and C.J. Cron
No. 25: Carlos Santana, 1B/DH, Pittsburgh Pirates
Contract: $6.725 million in 2023
2023 Stats: .238/.329/.368, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 5 SB (51 games)
By no means are we waving the white flag on the Pirates, who still have a winning record in a very winnable division. Santana is their only player in our top 25, and mainly because it would make sense to swap this 37-year-old bat for a pitcher if Oneil Cruz (broken leg) remains on track to return to the starting lineup in August.
No. 24: Dylan Floro, RHP, Miami Marlins
Contract: $3.9 million in 2023
2023 Stats: 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 5 saves
The Marlins just keep hanging around at slightly better than .500 despite one of the worst run differentials in baseball. But eventually, they're going to fade, right? And if they do, this impending free agent and occasional closer figures to be a hot commodity. Floro has had a few recent implosions, but dating back to the start of 2021, he has a 3.18 ERA and has saved 30 games for the Marlins.
No. 23: Keynan Middleton, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Contract: $750,000 (estimated) in 2023
2023 Stats: 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 12.4 K/9
If we take salary into consideration, you could easily call Middleton one of the 10 top trade targets for this summer, as he will only be owed about a quarter of a million dollars—the same amount Aaron Judge makes every single game—for the final two months of the season. We'll see if he can keep up the impressive work, though, after posting an ERA north of 4.90 in each of the previous three seasons. (Hence the low salary in his final year of arbitration eligibility.)
No. 22: C.J. Cron, 1B, Colorado Rockies
Contract: $7.25 million in 2023
2023 Stats: .228/.277/.426, 6 HR, 20 RBI (36 games)
Cron entered the season looking like a sure thing to rank top 10 on this list, given his status as an impending free agent for one of the worst teams in the league and the fact that he had hit at least 25 home runs in each of the past four 162-game seasons. But he has been out for three weeks with back spasms and presently has what would be the worst slugging percentage of his career.
Nos. 21-19: Buck Farmer, Paul Blackburn and Joe Kelly
No. 21: Buck Farmer, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Contract: $1.75 million in 2023
2023 Stats: 28.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 8.0 K/9
Dating back to April 15, Farmer has made 19 appearances with a 1.19 ERA. He doesn't have great career numbers, but he's thriving right now for a cost that is effectively negligible. (Will be roughly $600,000 in prorated salary by the deadline.) There will be better relievers on the trade block, but he would be a hot commodity if the deadline was tomorrow.
No. 20: Paul Blackburn, RHP, Oakland A's
Contract: $1.9 million, two years of arbitration eligibility remaining
2023 Stats: 4.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 13.5 K/9
At this point, the A's don't have much left to offer. Maybe Ramón Laureano or Brent Rooker could be on the move, but the best trade asset on the roster is this 2022 All-Star, who just recently returned from two months on the IL with a finger issue. Though he only went four innings, Blackburn looked pretty good in his 2023 debut against Atlanta, and could quickly surge into the top 10 if he continues to pitch well.
No. 19: Joe Kelly, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Contract: $9 million in 2023, $9.5 million club option for 2024
2023 Stats: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 12.4 K/9
Buckle up for a steady diet of White Sox in trade rumors. We already encountered Middleton at No. 23, there are three more in our top 15 and several others who almost made the cut.
In Kelly's case, we're talking about a reliever who turns 35 in a few days and who could generate a ton of interest with his new-found ability to pound the strike zone. From 2016-22, Kelly averaged 4.4 walks per nine innings pitched, but he has slashed that rate down to 1.1 this season, recently ending a streak of 14 consecutive appearances without allowing a free pass. If he can maintain that level of control moving forward, just about every contender will want to add him to their bullpen.
Nos. 18-16: Elias Díaz, Jeimer Candelario and Joc Pederson
No. 18: Elias Díaz, C, Colorado Rockies
Contract: $5.5 million in 2023, $6 million in 2024
2023 Stats: .309/.362/.475, 6 HR, 29 RBI (52 games)
Tough to say where to slot Díaz. He has been one of the most valuable catchers this season, worth 2.1 wins above replacement per Baseball-Reference. He also clubbed 18 home runs in just 106 games played in 2021. But it's difficult to believe in the batting average, when this 32-year-old was a .238 hitter over the past four seasons. That said, unless the Royals are willing and able to part with Salvador Perez—who has 10-and-5 no-trade protection if he wants to stay in Kansas City—you're not likely to find a better catcher on this year's trade block.
No. 17: Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Washington Nationals
Contract: $5 million in 2023
2023 Stats: .264/.333/.462, 7 HR, 28 RBI, 17 2B (55 games)
The Nats were able to get Candelario on the cheap after he had a disappointing walk year with Detroit, and now they stand to benefit from his resurgence (and then some) to become one of the most valuable third basemen of this season. He was hitting .211 into mid-May before going on a 16-game surge with a .410/.486/.754 triple slash.
No. 16: Joc Pederson, OF, San Francisco Giants
Contract: $19.65 million in 2023
2023 Stats: .235/.351/.494, 5 HR, 18 RBI (26 games)
Pederson has been out of action for nearly a month now with a right wrist injury, but his powerful left-handed bat could be on the move if the Giants fall out of contention—which could/should happen in the June 16-July 5 timeframe when they play 19 straight against the Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Mets and Mariners. Pederson played a key part in Atlanta's 2021 World Series run after getting traded at that year's deadline. Maybe it happens again.
Nos. 15-13: Amed Rosario, Aroldis Chapman and Mike Clevinger
No. 15: Amed Rosario, SS, Cleveland Guardians
Contract: $7.8 million in 2023
2023 Stats: .224/.270/.314, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 8 SB (52 games)
Rosario batted north of .280 with double-digit home runs in each of 2019, 2021 and 2022, but the 27-year-old impending free agent hasn't been anywhere near as potent this season. He has also been a disaster on defense, already committing eight errors at shortstop.
But at least he's improving. Six of the eight errors came in April, and after whiffing in 40 of his first 138 plate appearances (28.9 percent), he has struck out just 10 times in his last 88 (11.4 percent). He just needs to start finding holes in the defense and then he could be a valuable player over the latter half of the season.
No. 14: Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Contract: $3.75 million in 2023
2023 Stats: 20.1 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 14.6 K/9
Chapman has come back to earth after opening the season with a line of 8.0 IP, 0 R, 15 K. But he is still striking out opponents at an impressive rate compared to the 2022 season in which it looked like he had run out of gas in the proverbial tank. Whether the seven-time All-Star with more than 300 career saves still has what it takes to hold down the fort as a closer remains to be seen, but he could at least still be a solid situational lefty in big middle-relief spots.
No. 13: Mike Clevinger, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Contract: $8 million in 2023, $12 million mutual option for 2024
2023 Stats: 52.1 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.9 K/9
In the four seasons (2017-20) prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery, Clevinger had a 2.96 ERA and a 10.2 K/9 and was one of the best pitchers who had never been named an All-Star. And while he hasn't gotten back to that level of dominance on the mound, he's still a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter who's going to give you five or six innings in just about every start. Three times already this season he did so without allowing any runs.
Nos. 12-10: Randal Grichuk, Josh Bell and Eduardo Rodriguez
No. 12: Randal Grichuk, OF, Colorado Rockies
Contract: $10.33 million in 2023
2023 Stats: .340/.395/.466, 1 HR, 10 RBI (27 games)
Grichuk missed the first month of the season after undergoing hernia surgery in February, and he has yet to regain his normal power at the dish. (He averaged one home run for every 19.9 at-bats from 2015-22, but has hit just one in 103 at-bats in 2023.) What he has lacked in power, though, he has more than made up for with base hits. In fact, he entered Saturday with the highest OPS (.883) of his career and would have been second in the majors in batting average (.347) if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. Very intriguing player to monitor for the next eight weeks.
No. 11: Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Cleveland Guardians
Contract: $16.5 million in 2023, $16.5 million player option for 2024
2023 Stats: .225/.329/.348, 4 HR, 26 RBI (53 games)
The Guardians swung big (by their standards) this offseason to bring in Bell, and, well, it hasn't worked out. He was a little better in May than he was in April, but not good enough to justify making $16.5 million both this season and next. But perhaps they can convince a deeper-pocketed team to take on the remainder of this contract in hopes that he'll return to his pre-2022 trade deadline form. Trading away Bell wouldn't necessarily mean Cleveland is giving up on winning the AL Central, either. It would be much more of a "thinking ahead about 2024 finances" move for the Guardians.
No. 10: Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Contract: $14 million in 2023, three-year, $49 million player option for 2024-26
2023 Stats: 67.2 IP, 2.13 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8.9 K/9
Rodriguez suffered a ruptured pulley in his left index finger, which is likely to keep him sidelined until at least the All-Star Break, if not until right around the trade deadline. That makes the trading landscape even more complicated than it already was for a player who is probably-though-not-definitely going to opt out of what's left on his contract—$18M in 2024, $16M in 2025, $15M in 2026. Oh, Rodriguez also has a 10-team no-trade clause. But given how well he pitched for the first two months, it's a sure thing there will be teams willing to jump through all of the hoops it would take to acquire this southpaw, provided he gets healthy.
Nos. 9-7: Alex Cobb, Michael Conforto and Michael Lorenzen
No. 9: Alex Cobb, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Contract: $9 million in 2023, $10 million team option for 2024
2023 Stats: 69.2 IP, 2.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.3 K/9
After back-to-back years with a sub-3.80 ERA, Cobb has upped his game even further and is doing some of his best pitching at 35 years of age. But if the .500 Giants fade enough to become sellers, Cobb could be a sell-high, recoup-some-costs situation for a team that unfortunately is already going to be on the hook for a combined $30 million in player options on Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling.
No. 8: Michael Conforto, OF, San Francisco Giants
Contract: $18 million in 2023, $18 million player option for 2024
2023 Stats: .249/.345/.462, 11 HR, 28 RBI, 2 SB (50 games)
Speaking of Giants with player options, here's one they almost certainly won't need to worry about paying, as Conforto—who struggled in 2021 before missing all of 2022—has played well enough to opt out of the second year of this deal and sign a bigger, longer contract elsewhere this offseason. It took a little while for him to get back into the swing of things, hitting .168 through his first 31 games. But from May 10 through the end of the month, Conforto hit .373 with seven home runs.
No. 7: Michael Lorenzen, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Contract: $8.5 million
2023 Stats: 53.1 IP, 3.21 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 6.9 K/9
Has any starting pitcher been hotter since the beginning of May? Over his last six starts, Lorenzen has put together a line of 39.1 IP, 23 H, 8 ER, 7 BB, 26 K. Not a particularly noteworthy whiff rate, but that's nothing new for Lorenzen. And that's a 1.83 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP, which is enough to vault him ahead of Eduardo Rodriguez on the list of intriguing Tigers starting pitchers on the trade block—if we can even assume at this point that Detroit will be sellers at the deadline.
Nos. 6-4: Cody Bellinger, Gleyber Torres and Jorge Soler
No. 6: Cody Bellinger, OF, Chicago Cubs
Contract: $12 million in 2023, $12 million mutual option for 2024
2023 Stats: .271/.337/.493, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 9 SB (37 games)
You can forget about that mutual option for 2024, as Bellinger (prior to landing on the IL with a knee injury in mid-May) has looked at least 75 percent as good as he did while winning NL MVP in 2019. As such, it's a near guarantee he's going to turn down the player portion of that option in pursuit of a mega deal this offseason. And with the Cubs flirting with the worst record in the National League, there's a good chance he'll be on the trade block.
Wouldn't it be fun if he landed in San Diego, who will have a four-game set against Bellinger's former team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, immediately after the trade deadline? The Padres have a two-time Gold Glover in center in Trent Grisham, but replacing him with a Gold Glover who can hit better than .190 would be a no-brainer for that floundering offense.
No. 5: Gleyber Torres, 2B, New York Yankees
Contract: $9.95 million in 2023, one year of arbitration eligibility remaining
2023 Stats: .262/.336/.430, 9 HR, 25 RBI, 5 SB (59 games)
No, the Yankees won't be sellers at the trade deadline. But if the lineup ever gets healthy, they could afford to trade away Torres, if that's what it takes to upgrade some pitching. (They would have DJ LeMahieu at second, Anthony Volpe at short and Josh Donaldson at third with Isiah Kiner-Falefa atop the list of backup options.) The Yankees almost traded Torres for Pablo López at last year's deadline, and maybe they can flip the middle infielder under team control through next season for one of this year's top impending free agent starting pitchers.
No. 4: Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Miami Marlins
Contract: $15 million in 2023, $9 million player option for 2024
2023 Stats: .247/.328/.535, 17 HR, 36 RBI (57 games)
Whether you prefer FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference for wins above replacement, Soler was worth about 0.3 WAR between the 2021 and 2022 seasons, hitting .207 in just 72 games played last year. So, no, he decidedly was not a top-five trade deadline candidate heading into the season.
But the Soler who hit 48 home runs in 2019 has re-surfaced, going off from May 4-27 for a .326 average with 12 home runs. He could be one heck of a deadline addition for, say, the Milwaukee Brewers, who have gotten absolutely nothing out of their DH slot this season.
Nos. 3-1: Lucas Giolito, Tim Anderson and Marcus Stroman
No. 3: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Contract: $10.4 million in 2023
2023 Stats: 68.1 IP, 4.08 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.1 K/9
Giolito had a rough first two starts to this season and wasn't great his last two times out. In between, though, he made eight starts with a 2.66 ERA, going at least six full innings in each of those outings. He twice stifled the Rays, twice shut down the Twins and went six hitless innings against the Phillies. It's not a stretch in the slightest to suggest he could be the missing piece for a championship rotation.
No. 2: Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox
Contract: $12.5 million in 2023, $14 million team option for 2024
2023 Stats: .268/.305/.315, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 6 SB (41 games)
After batting at least .300 in each of the past four seasons and winning a batting title in 2019, Anderson hasn't been hitting anywhere near as well in the current campaign. But if the White Sox ultimately put the shortstop on the trade block, the list of suitors would be a mile long.
Per FanGraphs, Anderson was the 27th-most valuable position player from 2019-22, this despite missing 172 games during that four-year window. He's a great hitter, a plus baserunner and an occasional slugger with a respectable glove. That $14 million team option for next season is an absolute steal if he can get back to playing at his usual level of excellence.
No. 1: Marcus Stroman, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Contract: $25 million in 2023, $21 million player option for 2024
2023 Stats: 73.0 IP, 2.59 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 7.6 K/9
Throughout May, there were rumblings about a possible Stroman extension, with the latest reports being that he would love to stay in Chicago for the long haul. But until that extension actually happens, the 32-year-old, who tossed a one-hit shutout against the Rays last Monday, remains atop the list of candidates to create a huge splash at the trade deadline. Stroman was an All-Star in 2019, and he is at least in the mix with Spencer Strider and Zac Gallen among candidates to start this year's Midsummer Classic.
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