Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jokić Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

Biggest X-factors to Decide Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets 2023 NBA Finals

Andy Bailey

After the Miami Heat beat the Boston Celtics, 103-84, on Monday, a grueling seven-game Eastern Conference Finals is in the books.

And a Heat-Denver Nuggets Finals is set.

Stars like Nikola Jokić, Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray will certainly have their say in the outcome of this series, but that's obvious. And chances are, given what we've already seen this postseason, all three of those players will come through.

At this point of the season, games are often decided on the margins or by X-factors. The biggest ones can be found below.

Caleb Martin

Caleb Martin Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

The Heat wouldn't have won their series against Boston without the contributions of Caleb Martin.

After averaging 9.6 points in the regular season (and 8.0 for his career), Martin put up 19.3 in the Eastern Conference Finals. He had 26 on 11-of-16 shooting (including 4-of-6 from three) in Monday's closeout game.

And he hasn't been piling up these points as a mere receiver working off of Butler. Throughout the postseason, and particularly in the series against Boston, he was creating and drilling jumpers for himself.

Having another bailout option after Butler has been crucial, and it will remain so against the Nuggets.

Denver has, by far, the best offense in the playoffs. When Jokić and Murray are on the floor, it seemingly gets a decent shot every possession. This attack is going to be tough to keep up with, and Miami will need all the weapons it can bring.

Having a player who can double his regular-season scoring average would be a good start.

Michael Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr. Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images

Michael Porter Jr. was the No. 2 recruit in his high school class, but a back injury at Missouri pushed him to the tail end of the lottery in the 2018 NBA Draft.

That meant he'd be going to a team closer to competing than those at the top of the draft. Going 14th and continuing to deal with back problems in the pros contributed to his settling into a role he probably didn't envision for himself when he was being touted as one of the best recruits in the country.

Over the last five years, MPJ has bought into being a role player. This postseason alone, he's shown more as a playmaker and defender than he had at any point in his career. His willingness to fit in and try to impact the game without a ton of shots is a big part of why Denver's in the Finals.

There are still plenty of moments when his pedigree shines through.

When Porter gets rolling, it's not hard to see where the "6'10" Klay Thompson" comp came from. His release from three is picture perfect and lightning quick. And with his size, there really isn't a defender in the league whose closeouts bother him.

That, of course, extends to Miami. If the Heat continue to start Martin (as they did in Games 6 and 7), Porter should be able to simply shoot over the top of any guards and wings the Heat throw at him. If they go back to Kevin Love, Porter's emerging dribble-drive game could be huge. Putting Bam Adebayo on him is completely untenable, because then what do you do with Jokić?

If Porter is involved and hitting shots, he creates plenty of questions for Miami.

Miami's Three-point Shooting

Jimmy Butler and Duncan Robinson Eric Espada/NBAE via Getty Images

Three-point shooting is sort of a bellwether throughout the NBA (and has been for the last several years), but that feels especially true of this Heat team.

In 2021-22, Miami led the league in three-point percentage at 37.9, won 53 games and finished first in the Eastern Conference. In 2022-23, with largely the same roster, Miami's 34.4 three-point percentage ranked 27th. It won 44 games, dropped the play-in opener and secured the eighth seed after a not-so-easy win against the Chicago Bulls.

Then, suddenly, when the 2023 postseason started, the Heat's shooting came back. They were 14-of-28 from deep in Monday's closeout win over the Celtics. They're now shooting 39.0 percent from three for the playoffs and are 6-2 when they make at least 40 percent of their three-point attempts.

And while they're about to face their stiffest test yet, Butler's playmaking, Erik Spoelstra's offense and the unselfishness of this entire team figures to create plenty more open threes for Miami.

If they go in, the Heat have a shot to win the series. If not, it's going to be impossible to keep pace with Denver's scoring.

Denver's Bench

Nikola Jokić and Bruce Brown Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images

The Nuggets' non-Jokić minutes have been a massive story for most of his career, but they've been especially troubling the last two seasons.

Since the start of the 2021-22 campaign, Denver is plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor and minus-8.9 without him. That's a prime Stephen Curry or LeBron James-like swing.

But first-year general manager Calvin Booth made a number of offseason moves that bolstered his team's depth (particularly on defense). Bruce Brown's slashing, defense and intensity on both ends of the floor have been a huge boost. Rookie Christian Braun is ahead of schedule as a reserve defender. And though Kentavious Caldwell-Pope starts, the Nuggets have played well when he's on the floor with bench-heavy lineups.

Those acquisitions, as well as coach Michael Malone using Aaron Gordon as a backup 5 to tighten the rotation to seven or eight players through much of the playoffs, have dramatically improved upon the trend above.

Denver's point differential is still better when Jokić is on the floor this postseason, but it's actually outscoring opponents when he sits.

If the Heat can't win the minutes when Jokić is on the bench, this could be a short series.

Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

There was some temptation to list Bam Adebayo among the stars in the intro of this slideshow. He's probably the fourth best player in this series.

But he's absolutely an X-factor here. In fact, he may be the X-factor.

Over the last four games of the Eastern Conference Finals, Adebayo averaged 12.3 points on 12.0 shots. He made just 41.7 percent of his attempts from the field. And of course, Miami went 1-3 in those games.

When Bam can't score, the Heat's already tenuous offense becomes an absolute slog. And while Miami eventually eliminated Boston is a mostly sloggish Game 7, that's not going to get it done against Denver.

If Bam can't be a real scoring threat, Miami's in trouble.

Perhaps more important than that, though, is the fact that Adebayo almost certainly has to defend Jokić.

Nobody can stop the two-time MVP, but it should be especially difficult for Bam, who's giving up two inches and 29 pounds.

If he can't, at the very least, make things a little more difficult for Denver's playmaker, again... trouble.

Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images

We can't get out of here without mentioning Tyler Herro.

At 20.1 points, he was Miami's second leading scorer in the regular season. For his career, he's a 38.3 percent three-point shooter. And due to a broken hand, he's only played 19 minutes this postseason.

Shortly after Monday's Game 7, Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes reported that he may be back soon.

Of course, he probably doesn't add to the defensive identity that's pushed Miami to the Finals, but the Heat need as much firepower as they can get to keep pace with the Nuggets.

If Herro looks like the regular season version of himself, he improves Miami's chances, but that's certainly not a given. He's been out for several weeks. If he returns with rust on offense and lack of focus on the other end, there's a chance he actually makes them worse.

   

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