Kyler Murray David Berding/Getty Images

NFL's Most Overrated Player at Each Position Entering 2023 Season

Gary Davenport

The nearly 1,700 players on NFL rosters in any given year are broken up into any number of categories. There are the stars. The solid starters. The role players. The rising youngsters. Fading veterans. Benchwarmers.

Each of these categories has several subsets. There's one among the stars and starters that no one wants to be included in: overrated players.

On the one hand, being overrated has its perks. At least one NFL team has decided those players are at the very least quality starters, and many are considered stars. They have received fat contracts. Accolades from fans. Endorsement deals. All that good stuff.

However, the cold truth is that with these players, the production doesn't meet the perception or the paycheck. These players may be looked at by some as difference-makers, but much more often than not they don't get it done.

There were several factors that went into determining the players included here. Salary was a big one—it affords a number that can be compared against other high-end options at their position. So is statistical production. But there were other considerations as well: Whether it was draft slot, a trade used to acquire them, veteran reputation or the perception of fans.

Because sometimes, that perception and reality don't match even a little.

Whatever the reason, every position has a player who rises above the rest as the most overrated of the lot.

Please hold throwing tomatoes until the conclusion of the presentation.

Salary data courtesy of Spotrac

Advanced stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

QB: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

On some level, it seems a little mean to kick things off with a player who is hurt.

But Kyler Murray's ACL has nothing to do with his being the NFL's most overrated quarterback—that ship sailed before he ever got hurt.

To be clear (and this is rather a theme in this article), calling Murray overrated doesn't mean he's bad. He has posted a pair of solid seasons. In 2020, Murray completed over 67 percent of his passes, tossed a career-high 26 touchdowns, and rushed for 819 yards and 11 scores. The following season, he again topped 3,700 passing yards, posted a passer rating over 100 and led the Redbirds to the playoffs.

That was that. Fire up the commercials. Back up the Brink's truck. In spring of 2022, the Cardinals handed Murray a five-year, $230.5 million contract that included over $103 million in guarantees at signing. In terms of average annual salary, he ranks fifth among quarterbacks.

The problem is that Murray isn't a top-five quarterback. He might not be a top-10 quarterback. He has yet to post a 4,000-yard passing season. He was 14th in the league in passing yards and 12th in passing touchdowns in his last full season. He's six games under .500 as a starter in the NFL, and his lone playoff start was an absolute catastrophe.

Murray's second contract was the sunk cost fallacy run amok. And if last year's career-worst numbers in most categories were any indication, things aren't going to get better from here.

Other Overrated Quarterbacks: Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos; Daniel Jones, New York Giants

RB: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

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There was a time not that long ago when Alvin Kamara was, arguably, the most dangerous dual threat running back in the NFL. In each of his first four seasons, he averaged over 4.5 yards per carry, caught over 80 passes and topped 1,300 total yards. In three of those seasons, he eclipsed 1,500 total yards and/or scored at least 13 touchdowns.

Just before that fourth season, the Saints handed Kamara a five-year extension that averaged a whopping $15 million a season. Among NFL running backs, only Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers has a higher average annual salary.

Kamara was one of the highest-profile backs in the NFL and a star in fantasy football and in video games.

The last two seasons have been a different story, though. The yardage has still been there—Kamara has yet to come up short of that 1,300-yard mark in the pros. But in each of the past two seasons, he has failed to exceed four yards a carry. His reception numbers have plummeted as well—after 83 grabs in 2020, he has just 104 catches the past two seasons combined.

Again, those numbers aren't bad. And part of the slide can be attributed to a change in offensive scheme. But Kamara's 1,565 career touches appear to be catching up to him. He looks to have lost a step, and he broke just seven tackles all season long last year—32nd among running backs.

With the Saints adding veteran Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller in the offseason and Kamara potentially looking at a personal conduct suspension after an offseason assault arrest, it's fair to wonder how much longer the Saints will keep paying a player whose production is in decline $15 million a year.

Other Overrated Running Backs: Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals; Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

WR: Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore Ravens

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Do you know why we're still talking about Odell Beckham Jr. like he's an elite wide receiver?

This.

One catch on a Sunday night against the rival Dallas Cowboys the better part of a decade ago that gave Cris Collinsworth the vapors.

Mind you, it was a great catch. Over Beckham's first three seasons, he eclipsed 1,300 receiving yards three times. Caught over 10 touchdown passes three times. And made the Pro Bowl three times.

But that was also rather a long time ago. Beckham tore his ACL in 2017, was traded to the Browns in 2019 and after a mostly disastrous two-plus seasons in Cleveland, he was traded to the Los Angeles Rams during the 2021 season.

There were flashes in L.A. Beckham exploded for 113 yards on nine catches against Tampa Bay in that year's NFC Championship Game and quickly logged two grabs for 52 yards and a score in Super Bowl LVI. But then he tore his ACL again, and this time the injury caused him to miss the entire 2022 season.

After an offseason rife with speculation about where Beckham would play in 2023, he has signed with the Baltimore Ravens. But we're talking about a 30-year-old receiver whose last 1,000-yard season came in 2019. A player who hasn't averaged 15 yards a catch since 2015. A player whose last year with a catch percentage north of 60 was 2018. A wideout with fewer touchdowns over the last three years combined than he had in 2015 alone. And a receiver who will have gone 575 days between games the next time he sees the field.

Beckham was great once. Maybe he will be again. But the presumption he is just because he's Odell Beckham just doesn't hold up to any real scrutiny.

Others Overrated Wide Receivers: Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers; Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

TE: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

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Some mysteries just defy explanation. There are the stone heads on Easter Island. The disappearance of the Roanoke colony in 1590. And what the heck possessed the Cleveland Browns to give tight end David Njoku a contract extension that averaged nearly $14 million a season.

Now, to hear Njoku tell it, 2023 is going to be a big year in Cleveland. In fact, he told reporters that he thinks he and Deshaun Watson can build a connection that rivals that of Travis Kelce and Deshaun Watson in Kansas City.

"First off, those two are legendary, you know what I mean?" he said. "All the kudos to them, Patrick and Trav and, yeah, I feel like we can definitely do things similar to that as well. It's only a matter of time, so I'm very excited."

I'll give you folks a moment to stop laughing.

Njoku didn't have a bad season in 2023. In fact, he set a career high in receptions. But that career high was 58, which ranked 10th among tight ends. His 628 receiving yards slotted eighth at the position. His 80 targets ranked 11th. And his four scores tied for sixth-most among tight ends.

Again, none of those numbers are all that bad—until you consider Njoku is sixth in average annual salary among tight ends and that the year before he caught just 36 passes and failed to surpass 500 receiving yards.

Njoku isn't a bad tight end. But he isn't a great one, either—and the fact that his contract ranks among the highest at his position just makes no sense.

Other Overrated Tight Ends: Darren Waller, New York Giants; Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

OT: Jawaan Taylor, Kansas City Chiefs

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When it comes to offensive linemen, the easiest barometer for an overrated player is money. Many NFL fans can't name the starting tackles on their favorite team. And it's not a position that gives rise to a lot of endorsement opportunities.

There are a few, though.

And from a glance at the average annual salaries for tackles, it doesn't take long to see one who sticks out like a sore thumb. But it's a little surprising to see the team that overpaid so badly for Jawaan Taylor this offseason.

The Kansas City Chiefs don't make many bad personnel moves. But handing a good-but-by-no-means-great right tackle $20 million per season was a head-turner. Not only that, but there was also speculation after the Chiefs lost Orlando Brown that Taylor would move to left tackle.

Taylor downplayed the difficulty of making the switch while speaking to reporters.

"Left tackle, right tackle, it's just a flip of the hips honestly," he said. "Other than that, (it's no big deal) if you're athletic enough and you trust your feet. You've got great coaching as well, which I know that's here. I feel like the transition will be pretty good."

It ain't that simple, and given that Kansas City also signed veteran left tackle Donovan Smith, it appears they aren't as confident in Taylor as he is.

Given that, per Pro Football Focus, Taylor allowed an average of seven sacks per season over the last four years in Jacksonville, those reservations are well-founded.

Unfortunately, though, they can't un-ring the bell on his contract.

Other Overrated Tackles: Brian O' Neill, Minnesota Vikings; Joseph Noteboom, Los Angeles Rams

Interior Offensive Linemen: Brandon Scherff, Jacksonville Jaguars

David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

As is the case with tackles, interior offensive linemen aren't exactly known for their notoriety. A few like Quenton Nelson of the Colts and Zack Martin of the Cowboys establish a measure of fame, but most toil in relative anonymity.

We had to go local and 35 years into the past to find a commercial that even has a guard in it.

It's really kind of unfair.

Over eight seasons in Washington and Jacksonville, Brandon Scherff has built quite a name for himself. He made five Pro Bowls in the capital before signing a big free-agent deal with the Jags, and Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson told reporters last October that he was brought in as a stabilizing force and veteran presence up front.

"He's just the ultimate pro, in my opinion," Pederson said. "This guy never takes a play off. Even when we take him out in practice for a rest here and there, he doesn't want to come out."

Well, the Jaguars got that veteran presence—Scherff played almost 1,100 snaps in his first season in Jacksonville, per PFF.

The stabilizing force? Not so much. He allowed six sacks in 2022, which is a big number for a guard. It was more sacks than he surrendered over a four-year stretch from 2018-2021.

Now, it might be that this was an anomaly. An adjustment year. But it's equally possible that, at 31, Scherff's best football is behind him and his reputation as one of the NFL's best guards no longer matches the reality of what he is as a player.

Other Overrated Interior Offensive Linemen: Laken Tomlinson, New York Jets; Connor McGovern, Buffalo Bills

Edge-Rusher: Bradley Chubb, Miami Dolphins

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That the Miami Dolphins traded a first-round pick to the Denver Broncos last year for edge-rusher Bradley Chubb demonstrates the esteem in which he's held in NFL circles. So does his average annual salary of $22 million a season, which ranks sixth at one of the league's more lucrative positions.

Per Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post, Chubb was the first to admit that his partial season in Miami last year failed to meet expectations:

"I was up and down with it. Coming in grasping a whole new defense, a whole new set of teammates. I felt like I did okay, you know what I mean? For sure, I hold myself to a higher standard. I wanted to come in and be that guy that that got 10 sacks in half a season. They brought me here for a reason. And I've just got to make sure I live up to that reason."

The thing is, Chubb essentially hasn't met expectations most of his career.

As a rookie in 2018, he was outstanding. Playing opposite Von Miller, he tallied 60 tackles and a dozen sacks. He hasn't hit either benchmark in the four seasons since, or come relatively close.

Chubb wasn't bad last season—he flirted with 40 tackles and accrued eight sacks between the Broncos and Dolphins. But that's not the sort of production that merits north of $20 million a season. Or a first-round pick.

Two have now been spent on Chubb.

Other Overrated Edge-Rushers: Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers; Joey Bosa, Los Angeles Chargers

Defensive Lineman: Dalvin Tomlinson, Cleveland Browns

Nick Cammett/Getty Images

Apparently, Browns general manager Andrew Berry comes from the "you can't take it with you" school of contract allocation, because his gonzo deals have now landed a second player on this list.

Before Berry had even had a chance to break out his checkbook, Seth Walder of ESPN had singled out Dalvin Tomlinson as the most overrated defensive tackle on the market in 2023.

"Tomlinson will make money this offseason, but the numbers don't see him as a player who's a major difference-maker," he wrote. "He has never recorded more than 3.5 sacks in a season, and his 7% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle is below average—despite the fact that he was doubled a less-than-average 53% of the time when pass rushing from the interior. His run stop win rate was a shade above average last year."

Berry took one look at those mediocre numbers and said, "Pay that man!" handing Tomlinson a four-year, $57 million contract that included over $27 million in guarantees.

Granted, this year's defensive tackle market was bananas—a number of beefeaters hit the jackpot. The Browns had a positively glaring need at defensive tackle. And if Cleveland didn't hand Tomlinson a bag of cash, some other team would have.

But he just isn't an impact player. He's a one-dimensional lane-clogger who isn't even an elite option at the one dimension.

What he is, apparently, is an excellent salesman, because he has convinced at least one of the NFL's decision-makers that he's more than what he actually is.

Other Overrated Defensive Linemen: Leonard Williams, New York Giants; DaVon Hamilton, Jacksonville Jaguars

Linebacker: Tremaine Edmunds, Chicago Bears

Bryan Bennett/Getty Images

When the Buffalo Bills drafted Tremaine Edmunds at 16th overall in 2018, the hope was that the young but wildly athletic Virginia Tech product would develop into one of the league's best off-ball linebackers.

If the contract he received from the Chicago Bears in the offseason is any indication, that's what Edmunds is now considered—the $18 million a season he will receive over four years trails only Roquan Smith of the Ravens, Shaquille Leonard of the Colts and Fred Warner of the 49ers among off-ball linebackers.

While talking to reporters at OTAs, Edmunds said he plans to be a foundational piece of the Bears defense in 2023.

"I'm excited. I'm excited," he said. "Just because I feel like I'm going to be in a position to make a lot of plays."

However, over the first five seasons of his career, Edmunds just hasn't been the sort of playmaker that Smith or a healthy Leonard have been.

Again, this isn't to say Edmunds can't play—he's a very good young linebacker who, at 25, is only just entering the prime of his career. He surpassed 100 total tackles in all five seasons in Buffalo.

But he was never a tackle monster—his career high was 121 as a rookie. He had a relatively modest 6.5 sacks and five interceptions in five years with the Bills. And while he was excellent in coverage in 2022, in both 2020 and 2021 his passer rating against was north of 100.

Edmunds is a very good player being paid like he's great. But he hasn't shown that greatness—not yet.

Other Overrated Linebackers: Jerome Baker, Miami Dolphins; Shaq Thompson, Carolina Panthers

Cornerback: Trevon Diggs, Dallas Cowboys

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

The contract status of cornerback Trevon Diggs is one of the bigger storylines surrounding the Cowboys this summer. As Charean Williams reported for Pro Football Talk, Diggs told Jon Machota of The Athletic that he's hopeful something gets worked out sooner rather than later.

"Hopefully something gets figured out," he said. "I love Dallas. I love being here. We'll see."

Brad Spielberger and Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus expect something to get figured out in a big way. Their projection of four years and $81 million would make Diggs the second-highest paid corner in the NFL in terms of average annual salary.

Diggs is an excellent young cornerback. And that big payday is coming because he posted one of the best big-play seasons by a cornerback in recent memory in 2021. But it's that 11-interception season that has skewed perceptions of Diggs and landed him on this list.

To his credit, while Diggs' numbers looked worse in many categories last season, the argument can be made that his 2022 season was much more even than his 2021 breakout. Two years ago, he paced the NFL in interceptions, but he also led the league in yards allowed in coverage. It was feast or famine. A big play made or surrendered.

Last year brought fewer trips to the highlight reel, but Diggs was much more controlled and consistent in coverage. The problem is that people see all those big plays and expect that to be the baseline. They label Diggs one of the best cornerbacks in the game. Maybe the best.

It's possible that one day he will be, but he isn't there yet.

Other Overrated Cornerbacks: J.C. Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers); Donte Jackson (Carolina Panthers)

Safety: Jamal Adams, Seattle Seahawks

Steph Chambers/Getty Images

Back in 2020, the Seahawks traded a package of players and picks that included two first-rounders for safety Jamal Adams. For a time at least, it appeared to be a deal that worked out for both sides.

In his first season with the Seahawks, Adams set a new NFL record for sacks by a defensive back with 9.5 and made the Pro Bowl for the third straight year. Seattle rewarded him with a new contract that averaged over $17.5 million a season.

At that time, Adams was considered one of the most feared safeties in the league. He still is in some circles.

Even in that first season, though, a theme started to develop. He missed four games that year, and then five more in a 2021 campaign in which he tallied 87 stops but failed to log any sacks. Last year, the bottom fell out. He tore a quad muscle and missed almost the entire season.

That quad injury has left Adams' status for the start of this season in doubt, but head coach Pete Carroll tried to offer an optimistic outlook on the availability of Adams and fellow defensive star Jordyn Brooks while speaking to reporters.

"They're doing well. The progress is being made," Carroll said. "This week, we're getting with them again to make sure they're making progress. But everything is going fine so far, and very optimistic on their sides, they really think that they'll make it and so we'll hold a good thought."

The reality is that even a healthy Adams is a man out of place in today's pass-wacky NFL—he's a terror in the box but a liability in coverage. With Julian Love and Quandre Diggs in town, it's possible that his future lies more as a linebacker than a safety.

And those who consider him a top option at the latter spot need to stop living in the past.

Other Overrated Safeties: Justin Reid, Kansas City Chiefs; Amani Hooker, Tennessee Titans

   

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