Aleksander Barkov and William Karlsson will be players to watch during the Stanley Cup Final. Ethan Miller/Getty Images

B/R NHL Staff 2023 Stanley Cup Final Predictions: Golden Knights vs. Panthers

BR NHL Staff

If you thought the Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers would be the Stanley Cup Final matchup, we'd like to see your crystal ball.

The Panthers have been on a magic-carpet ride throughout the postseason after just making the playoffs, knocking off the Bruins, Maple Leafs and Hurricanes. Led by Matthew Tkachuk and Sergei Bobrovsky, they have stunned the hockey world on their way to the Final.

Out West, the Golden Knights have overcome adversity in net and have been able to get timely offense from key veterans. Adin Hill, who was called into duty in net after a litany of injuries, has been outstanding for Vegas. Meanwhile, Jack Eichel and Mark Stone have been a terrific 1-2 punch, leading the team in total points during the postseason.

So which team is lifting the Cup? The B/R NHL staff got together to provide their predictions on what should be an exciting series.

Disagree with their takes? Sound off with your opinion in the comments section of the B/R app, and you can watch the entire Stanley Cup Final series on TNT.

The Panthers Are a Team of Destiny

Eliot J. Schechter/NHLI via Getty Images

It's tempting to go with the Vegas Golden Knights. They've overcome adversity between the pipes throughout the regular season and again in the playoffs, with Adin Hill making a name for himself backstopping them to the Stanley Cup Final.

Vegas has a better goals-per-game average (3.65) than the Panthers (3.13). It has six players among the top-15 playoff scorers while Florida has just three. The Golden Knights possess a deeper, more experienced roster as well as home-ice advantage in this series.

None of that matters to the Panthers, though. They've been giant-killers in these playoffs, upsetting this season's top two teams in the Boston Bruins and Carolina Hurricanes as well as a Toronto Maple Leaf club coming off its second-best regular season (111 points) in franchise history.

Sergei Bobrovsky has been outstanding in goal, regaining the form that made him a two-time Vezina Trophy winner. And Matthew Tkachuk has been the ultimate clutch player, leading the Panthers in scoring and tallying four game-winning goals, including three in overtime. Both players must be considered the front-runners for the Conn Smythe Trophy.

It's also been very much a team effort for the Panthers. Being the underdogs, they've got nothing to lose, taking on an "us-against-the-world" attitude. They'll also benefit from their 10-day layoff, enabling them to rest and heal up from their previous three series for the big push to come.

Prediction: Panthers in six games

—Lyle Richardson

Why Not Florida?

Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

I've doubted the Panthers every step of the way this postseason, and I've been wrong every single time. Frankly, I'm sick of taking these Ls.

Why not Florida?

Matthew Tkachuk is emerging as a clutch-as-he-is-fun rising NHL star at 25 years old. Sergei Bobrovsky's unexpected resurgence has been the best goaltending performance of the playoffs by far, forcing us to maintain belief in the narrative that a hot goalie is an essential component—maybe the most essential component—in postseason success.

According to Moneypuck.com, Bobrovsky's got a staggering 19.7 goals saved above expected throughout his 14 games played. He's 11-2-0 in 13 starts, with a 2.21 goals against average and a .935 save percentage.

Do you know how hard that is to do against the best players in the NHL? The 34-year-old has faced so much top-end talent against Boston, Toronto, and Carolina in the playoffs, and he was barely fazed.

The Panthers' defense, which had major struggles in the regular season, has somehow only improved as the playoffs have gone on. It speaks to the confidence and vibes this team oozes.

Vegas has a similar high-octane rush and terrifying forecheck that will give the Panthers their toughest battle yet, but it's time for Florida to raise the Cup for the first time in franchise history.

Prediction: Panthers in 7

—Sara Civian

Bobvrosky Turns Back into a Pumpkin as Vegas Prevails

Glenn James/NHLI via Getty Images

There are a number of reasons why the Panthers have advanced to the Stanley Cup Final.

Matthew Tkachuk has broken out and claimed the "national superstar" label he has long deserved. Anthony Duclair returned from injury, and Sam Reinhart has been worth the price paid to Buffalo in the summer of 2022.

Ultimately, though, the Panthers aren't here without Sergei Bobrovsky.

In some ways, it's not overly surprising. After all, the Panthers paid the Russian $70 million for seven seasons following a Vezina Trophy win.

But that was in 2019. Just a few months ago, his contract could have been called the league's most cumbersome. He posted a .901 save percentage in 50 games. There is a reason why head coach Paul Maurice opted to start third-string goaltender Alex Lyon to start the playoffs against Boston.

In 14 playoff games, Bobrovsky has given up 33 goals. Per Evolving Hockey, based on the shot quantity and quality he has faced, the average goalie would be expected to give up 54. That is a mind-blowing standard and puts him in pole position for the Conn Smythe Trophy.

In fact, it's a standard it's hard to see him continuing to match. That would be highly impressive for even the league's best goaltenders; let alone one who has struggled to keep a starting job.

Bobrovsky has a .935 save percentage during this playoff run. His career regular-season save percentage in Florida is .905. Which one do we think he's more likely to match against a thunderous Golden Knights offense? I know which one I'm betting on.

As good as Bobrovsky has been, this is the year Jack Eichel smashes the label of not being a winner and brings home the Conn Smythe.

Prediction: Golden Knights in six

—Adam Herman

Simply Put, Vegas Is the Better Team

AP Photo/Gareth Patterson

The Panthers are an amazing story, and Matthew Tkachuk and Sergei Bobrovsky—alongside basketball brethren, the Miami Heat—have made it an amazing spring in south Florida.

But the Golden Knights seem on another level.

They're rolling four impactful lines each night. They're shutting down opponents with a suffocating forecheck and a burly, physical defense in front of their own Cinderella goalie in fifth-stringer/injury replacement Adin Hill.

They've been among the league's gold-standard franchises since arriving in 2017 and only missed the playoffs by a whisker last season in spite of a ton of man-games lost to injury.

This time around, with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Jason Robertson—three of the NHL's top six scorers—already in the rear-view mirror, it's up to playoff newbie Jack Eichel and his veteran band of expansion-team misfits to finish the job with four more wins.

It says here that they'll get them while barely missing a beat.

Prediction: Golden Knights in five games

—Lyle Fitzsimmons

Panthers Win in 6 Games

Darcy Finley/NHLI via Getty Images

OK, listen.

I've covered the Buffalo Sabres since 2013-2014 for NHL.com, The Athletic and now my own website. I know a lot of the players in this series extremely well, though I'm not mentioning this to brag to have clout or any of that silliness.

I mention it because it's pretty astounding that the two biggest former Sabres, Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, guys who were supposed to be the ones to take Buffalo to the Stanley Cup Final, are instead facing each other to win it with different teams.

These are the paths life has taken them on and, honestly, it's all for the best.

Eichel has been brilliant for Vegas throughout the playoffs. Even without scoring a goal against Dallas in six games, he was a major factor in the Golden Knights' series win. Similarly, Reinhart has been beyond clutch throughout the playoffs, coming up big in the brightest moments.

It's a pleasure to see both of them thriving in these situations, alongside other ex-Buffalo players William Carrier and Brayden McNabb for Vegas, and Brandon Montour, Casey Fitzgerald, Zac Dalpe and Eric Staal for Florida.

Still, I've been a heel throughout the postseason and picked against Florida in every round. And after being wrong three times, I give up.

The Panthers have made it look almost easy all playoffs, and Sergei Bobrovsky has helped that out in a big way. It's hard to turn against that now.

Prediction: Panthers in 6

—Joe Yerdon

   

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