New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers Elsa/Getty Images

Ranking the 7 Worst Decisions of the 2023 NFL Offseason

Alex Ballentine

Most of the fun of the 2023 offseason is behind us. The NFL draft has played out, and while there are a few quality free agents out there, most of the difference-makers are accounted for.

In general, we have a complete picture of the moves each franchise is going to make.

There's also been enough time for various contract situations and trades to be settled. Aaron Rodgers is finally a Jet. The ink is dry on a five-year, $260 million contract for Lamar Jackson with the Baltimore Ravens.

That makes it a good time to step back and take stock of the worst decisions made this offseason. We can now see how each decision fits in the big picture.

From overpaying for free agents to questionable trades and contract extensions, here are the worst decisions of the offseason based on their potential to harm the team's long- and short-term goals.

7. Tennessee Titans Don't Do Enough at Receiver

Titans WR Treylon Burks Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

This list is primarily going to feature actual moves that teams made. In this case, it's the Titan's lack of action at an important position that earns them the dubious distinction of making the cut.

It's no secret that the current iteration of the Titans offense seems to have run its course. Mike Vrabel's coaching staff was able to get some playoff appearances out of Derrick Henry carrying the offense, while Ryan Tannehill throwing the ball to A.J. Brown and a few other decent receivers was a winning formula.

But they traded away A.J. Brown, replacing him with 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks.

Unfortunately, Burks' rookie season left a lot to be desired. The Arkansas alum ranked ninth among all rookies in receiving yards with 444. Fourth-round tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo actually had more yards for the Titans (450).

The Titans kicked off their cap-management moves this offseason by cutting Robert Woods, who led the receiving corps with 527 yards.

Now, the Titans have the saddest group of pass-catchers in the league. Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Kyle Philips project as the starters, and they combined for 919 yards last season.

The free-agent market wasn't loaded, but even taking a few shots on some mid-tier free agents would have been better than what they did. They signed Chris Moore, who was the No. 2 option in a bad Texans offense. They didn't draft a receiver until Round 7, when they took Colton Dowell of UT Martin.

It might be a bridge year as they transition from Ryan Tannehill to Will Levis, but they are an injury away from having to throw Levis to the wolves with few receiving options.

6. Detroit Lions Select Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12

AP Photo/Thomas Graning

This isn't about Jahmyr Gibbs. This is about opportunity cost.

Gibbs is an excellent running back prospect. He was the second running back on our big board and the 31st player overall. He even fits in well with the gap-run-heavy system the Lions have in place.

The problem with drafting Gibbs doesn't lie in whether he'll be successful, it's the fact that Lions missed out on the opportunity to add someone else at a premium position with the 12th pick.

Through a combination of a strong offensive line and a solid scheme, the Lions were able to help Jamaal Williams have a career year. His 1,066 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns were all career highs in his sixth year in the league.

D'Andre Swift averaged 5.5 yards per carry in the offense. Williams left in free agency and Swift was traded. The Lions went out and paid David Montgomery a three-year, $18 million contract in free agency, the second-biggest contract given to a running back in free agency by annual average value.

The next five picks were either edge defenders, cornerbacks or offensive tackles—positions that have seen massive free-agent contracts handed out over the last few offseasons.

Iowa pass-rusher Lukas Van Ness went to a division rival in Green Bay with the 13th pick. He could have been a great bookend to pair with Aidan Hutchinson on the defensive line. Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez went five picks later and would have given them a corner prospect to make up for Jeff Okudah, who was traded.

Gibbs is likely going to be successful, but a trade back would have made more sense if they were set on drafting him.

5. Kansas City Chiefs Overpay OT Jawaan Taylor

David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Jawaan Taylor—who ranked 65th among all tackles graded by PFF last season and gave up five sacks with seven penalties—will be the second-highest-paid right tackle in the league next season.

According to Spotrac, Lane Johnson is the only right tackle who tops the $20 million annual average value that Taylor's four-year, $80 million contract will pay him.

It's a move that certainly doesn't represent good value and is hard to make sense of.

Taylor certainly has some upside. He's only 25 years old, has 35" arms to go with a 6'5", 312-pound frame and enough athleticism to believe that he hasn't hit his ceiling yet.

He's going to have to find that ceiling in a hurry, though, to be worth the money the Chiefs are paying him.

This deal made a little more sense when it was initially believed that Taylor would be making the switch to left tackle. Although having two good tackles has become increasingly important, left tackles still usually command a little more money.

But that move has been nixed already. Nate Taylor of The Athletic reported that Andy Reid announced that fellow free-agent pickup Donovan Smith will play his natural position of left tackle while Taylor will move back over to the right.

Meanwhile, Orlando Brown Jr. signed a cheaper deal of four years and $64.1 million to go play for the Bengals, one of the Chiefs' primary Super Bowl rivals right now.

It's a move that doesn't look great for Kansas City all the way around.

4. Denver Broncos Overpay OT Mike McGlinchey

AP Photo/Tony Avelar

If you're going to sign one of the tackles at the top of the free-agent market, you're likely going to overpay. But the Broncos took quite the risk with how much they invested in Mike McGlinchey.

The Broncos handed the former 49ers tackle a five-year, $87.5 million contract, which was the longest of any given to a tackle this offseason. The 28-year-old was ranked 35th out of the 81 tackles that PFF graded last season.

It makes sense that the Broncos were in the market for a tackle. They have to give Russell Wilson every opportunity to make their move to acquire him last season worth it.

But McGlinchey wasn't even an elite pass protector, giving up six sacks and drawing 10 penalties, per PFF.

Brandon Thorn of Trench Warfare wasn't very high on McGlinchey in the free-agent class. He put him in his "below-average starter" group.

"He was a plus run-blocker over his first two seasons in 2018 and 2019 but has since taken a step back in his play strength and power, struggling to absorb and generate the same amount of force that he did early in his career," Thorn wrote before noting the 49ers run a system that is friendly to offensive linemen.

Whether McGlinchey can play up to this contract for Sean Payton is a serious question.

3. Texans Trade Up for Edge Will Anderson Jr.

Texans Edge Will Anderson Jr. Nick Tre. Smith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Will Anderson Jr. is a good prospect. He was top-ranked on our final big board and was a one-man wrecking crew at Alabama.

The Texans must obviously think so, too. After taking C.J. Stroud with the second pick, the Texans traded back up to No. 3 to take the pass-rusher, giving up a ton in the process.

The Texans gave up the No. 12 and No. 33 selections in 2023, plus a 2024 first-round pick and 2024 third-round pick for the No. 105 selection (which was traded for a 2023 third-rounder) and the No. 3 pick, used to take Will Anderson Jr.

According to Seth Walder of ESPN's calculations, it was the highest price a team has traded up for a non-quarterback since the Falcons traded for Julio Jones in the 2011 draft:

That trade ended up working out for the Falcons, but they were coming off a 10-6 season and had Matt Ryan in place. Jones also ended up being a five-time All-Pro selection while wearing a Falcons uniform.

That's the problem with the trade, though. For Anderson to be worth a first-round, second-round and third-round pick in addition to the swap from No. 12 to No. 3, he needs to be an All-Pro pass rusher in multiple seasons.

That could happen. Anderson is a talented player with 34.5 sacks across three years at Alabama. But it's a lot to put on one player to be able to outperform that much draft capital.

2. Carolina Panthers Include D.J. Moore in No. 1 Pick Trade

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

The Carolina Panthers took one of the biggest swings of the offseason when they moved up from No. 9 to No. 1 in the draft. After years of playing lackluster options at quarterback, they wanted to start the Frank Reich era with an elite quarterback prospect.

That's fair enough, but they made a potentially costly error in putting together the trade package to get it done.

The Athletic provided a great look inside the process of both teams putting together the trade. In that piece, their reporters noted that Bears general manager Ryan Poles was interested in Brian Burns, Derrick Brown and D.J. Moore as part of the trade.

The Panthers' initial offer didn't include a player, but when it was rejected, they reportedly opted to add Moore.

"It's so hard to replace a Derrick Brown or Brian Burns, a pass rusher (and) an interior, dominant young player on a (first) contract. D.J., we didn't want to move either. But it's a little bit easier to replace a receiver than it is a pass rusher or a three-tech," general manager Scott Fitterer said.

A look at the free-agent market right now casts down on that statement. Burns is a talented pass-rusher, but Leonard Floyd, Yannick Ngakoue and Frank Clark are all available right now and have reasonable production.

There isn't a parallel for those players available at wide receiver right now. Keeping Moore and trading away Burns or even Brown would have given Bryce Young a true No. 1 receiver to throw to.

Instead, he'll be trying to develop while throwing to a 32-year-old Adam Thielen and an unproven cast made up of second-round pick Jonathan Mingo, Terrace Marshall Jr. and the oft-injured DJ Chark.

1. New York Jets Trade for QB Aaron Rodgers

New York Jets team president Hymie Elhai, team owner Christopher Johnson, quarterback Aaron Rodgers, team owner Woody Johnson, and head coach Robert Saleh Elsa/Getty Images

When Aaron Rodgers got traded to the New York Jets, it wasn't just those involved with the Jets who let out a sigh of relief. The whole spectrum of fans and media who care about the sport celebrated that the saga came to an end.

But it's fair to wonder how long it will take those sighs to turn into groans in New York.

This move is an easy sell right now when optimism reigns supreme. The Jets haven't had a winning season since 2015 and haven't made the playoffs since 2010. That's enough losing to make any franchise get a little overeager.

While Rodgers has won two of the last three MVP's, he also finished 26th in total QBR and is 39 years old.

The Jets paid a hefty price to find out if he can regain that MVP form. They swapped picks in the first round (moving them from No. 13 to No. 15), gave up a second-rounder (No. 42, which became tight end Luke Musgrave) and No. 207 (which became kicker Anders Carlson) along with a 2024 second-round pick which becomes a first-round pick if Rodgers plays 65 percent of the snaps in 2023.

The pick swap ended up hurting because it moved the Jets out of the range to draft an offensive tackle in the first round. That was a need, and four came off the board before the Jets came on the clock—including Broderick Jones, who went at No. 14.

The pick protection doesn't really protect them if Rodgers plays the whole season and retires, which is a distinct possibility given his age and past flirtations with retirement.

This has the potential to be a disastrous move for the Jets.

   

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