For all but a handful of teams, the 2023 NBA offseason has already begun. Not officially, of course, but the focus for the vast majority of the league has shifted toward the summer and all the opportunities it'll bring.

Thanks to a new collective bargaining agreement, some squads have more difficult decisions than others. In particular, the introduction of a "second apron" tier of the luxury tax will place severe limitations on the highest-payroll teams. Its rollout will be gradual over the next two seasons, but the basics are clear: Anyone more than $17.5 million over the tax line can't use the mid-level exception, aggregate contracts in a trade, send out a first-rounder seven years out, take back more salary than it sends in a trade or use cash to "buy" picks. Land above the second apron twice in five years, and your first-round pick automatically moves to the end of the round.

Basically, the cost of operating significantly above the tax line is now far greater than penalty payments. It completely hamstrings the roster-building process.

The new rules won't affect everyone, but where they do, we'll try to forecast the way they'll complicate matters. Otherwise, the focus here can range from a tough contract negotiation to a broader decision about a franchise's direction.

Let's talk hard choices.

Atlanta Hawks: What Is John Collins Worth?

The Atlanta Hawks may need to get comfortable with the idea of salary-dumping John Collins, a painful reality considering they handed the power forward a five-year deal worth $125 million in 2021. Keeping the current roster together will put the Hawks roughly $10 million over the tax line, and we should interpret last offseason's cost-cutting Kevin Huerter trade as a signal ownership isn't keen on paying penalties.

If Collins were worth a first-round pick, you'd think the Hawks would have dealt him by now. But his wayward three-point shooting (career-low 29.2 percent in 2022-23) cratered his value, and he remained on the roster through this past season's February trade deadline.

Atlanta allowed opponents to take the league's second-highest percentage of shots at the rim, an indictment of its perimeter defense. Experiments with Collins at the 5 have also mostly failed over the years. He allowed opponents to hit 62.9 percent of their attempts inside six feet in 2022-23, the worst of any rotation big man on the team.

So if Collins can't hit threes, contribute as a perimeter stopper or defend the basket, it's pretty clear the Hawks would be better off with another combo forward in his place.

They just have to decide if they're comfortable getting nothing in return or even adding some draft capital to get his contract off the books.

Boston Celtics: Grant Williams' Restricted Free Agency

The Boston Celtics will be perilously close the the second apron if restricted free agent Grant Williams' next contract starts at the level of his $12.9 million cap hold, and that's assuming they renounce their rights to Blake Griffin and then trim Mike Muscala ($3.5 million team option), Luke Kornet ($2.4 million non-guaranteed) and Justin Champagnie ($1.9 million non-guaranteed) from the payroll.

Williams' postseason role is smaller this year than last, when he averaged 29.7, 31.5 and 30.4 minutes per game across the first three rounds of the 2022 playoffs. He only saw 12.0 minutes per game against the Hawks in the first round and sits firmly in the teens so far in the second.

That said, he's a dangerous shooter at the 4 whose strength allows him to defend centers. If not for Boston's other excellent bigs, led by Al Horford and Robert Williams III, he'd probably be getting significantly more time.

At 24 and boasting a skill package that comes pretty close to being plug-and-play, Williams is a good bet to command more than $12.9 million on the market. If he gets an offer sheet that comes closer to $20 million per year, the Celtics will have a major decision to make—particularly with Jalen Brown's free agency looming in 2024.

Brooklyn Nets: Is It Time to Consolidate...Again?

Will the Brooklyn Nets embark on another superstar hunt, sell off veterans for picks or take a middle path toward developing the next contending roster?

The franchise built a scrappy, professional culture and replaced star power with depth before sacrificing all of it for Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and (briefly) James Harden. This offseason, it can decide whether to undertake a similar process.

Brooklyn boasts no stars but has loads of valuable starters and rotation pieces, many of whom are entering the final year of their deals. Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris, Nic Claxton, Royce O'Neale and Patty Mills are all on contracts that expire after 2023-24, and each profile as intriguing salary to send out in a trade. Lump a few together, and the resulting package could appeal to a team with a costly, unwanted player in need of imminent cap relief.

The Nets also have Cameron Johnson's restricted free agency to sort through, not to mention the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Ben Simmons' health. But the assets are in place to either chase another star or take back bad long-term salary with enough draft picks attached to replenish a depleted war chest. Those picks from Phoenix in the Durant trade helped, but Brooklyn still owes two future firsts and two swaps to the Rockets.

Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball's Extension

Starting from the top, Michael Jordan is in serious talks to sell his majority stake in the franchise, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. There's also the question of whether the Hornets will bring back Miles Bridges, who pled no contest to a felony domestic violence charge in November, not to mention starting power forward P.J. Washington's restricted free agency.

Much is unsettled for the Charlotte Hornets, but franchises are still defined by their biggest stars. That makes LaMelo Ball's potential max extension the team's top priority.

Ball has averaged just 54 games played across his three seasons and has yet to make a playoff appearance (play-in games don't count). His All-Star nod in 2021-22, as a 20-year-old, and preternatural playmaking skills are two points in his favor. But Ball's defense leaves much to be desired, and his poor finishing inside the arc may forever prevent him from being a true three-level scorer.

If only to quiet the inevitable chatter about him preferring a bigger market, the Hornets should offer Ball the five-year, $204 million extension for which he's eligible. With ownership in flux, though, it's hard to predict the team's thinking. Ball can't hit free agency until 2024, and the Hornets will have the right to match any deal he signs at that point. It wouldn't be ridiculous for Charlotte to treat 2023-24 as a prove-it season for its best player.

Chicago Bulls: Nikola Vucević's Free Agency

Don't let Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokić and Anthony Davis fool you. They're among a handful of exceptions to the rule that center is the NBA's most fungible position. There's nothing wrong with paying premiums for superstars like those three, and the rare sub-category of spacers who can switch on defense are worth plenty as well. But generally, smart teams avoid committing real resources to the 5.

Enter unrestricted free agent Nikola Vucević, whose value to the Chicago Bulls was once officially set at "Wendell Carter Jr. and two first-round picks" in addition to the $23 million he averaged across the last two seasons.

The Bulls will only have the mid-level exception to toss at a potential replacement if Vucević leaves, but overspending to keep him wouldn't be wise. Vooch finished last year with a negative Estimated Plus/Minus. Chicago can't justify paying him more than the likes of Carter Jr., Mitchell Robinson, Ivica Zubac, Robert Williams III or Jarrett Allen, all of whom will earn $20 million or less next season. But with that four-year, $100 million deal Vucević signed with the Orlando Magic in 2019 having a potential anchoring effect, retaining him for market rates might be tough.

The Bulls are a veteran operation that might believe their 14-9 record after the All-Star break means contention is possible. That's another factor that could push them to unwisely re-sign Vucević this offseason.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Who's the Starting Small Forward?

If the Cleveland Cavaliers could combine Caris LeVert, Isaac Okoro, Cedi Osman, Lamar Stevens and Dean Wade into a single player, keeping all the best skills of each, they'd have no issue figuring out how to complement their four locked-in starters—other than a facing federal investigation for illegal gene-splicing and the public scorn that comes with that sort of mad-scientist malfeasance.

Let's assume the Cavs decide to play it conventionally and use a non-Frankenstein human at small forward. In that scenario, they could bring back LeVert in free agency, pick up Stevens' team option, teach Okoro to shoot (with actual volume) or hope Wade can stay healthy. The more appealing approach would be to look outside the organization for a rangy defender who can hit a three.

Those are in short supply and high demand across the league, so the Cavs would have to luck out on a reclamation project or surrender assets in trade to acquire one. Said assets can't include a future first-rounder because the Utah Jazz control Cleveland's first-round picks through 2029 and Cleveland's 2023 pick is headed to Indiana.

Torrey Craig for the mid-level exception, anyone?

Dallas Mavericks: What to do with Kyrie Irving?

Considering they lack the resources to replace him and gave up two rotation players (one of whom was one of Luka Dončić's best friends on the team) and a first-round pick to get him, the Dallas Mavericks can't let Kyrie Irving get away. If that were to happen, Dončić should demand a trade to a franchise that has a better idea of how to surround him with a sensible supporting cast.

In light of the Mavericks' recent transactions—trading a first for Christian Wood, signing JaVale McGee, losing Jalen Brunson for nothing—there might be 29 of those.

If we assume the Mavs don't have a choice about trying to keep Irving, the question is simply one of cost: How many years and dollars can Dallas reasonably give to perhaps the least reliable star in the league?

Fortunately for the Mavs, most of the teams with enough cap space to sign Irving at star rates are rebuilders. A sign-and-trade could open the bidding up a bit, but it's difficult to imagine many organizations clamoring to give up assets and sign Irving to a pricey deal. The most another team can give Irving in free agency is four years and $202 million, so there's no reason for the Mavs to exceed that.

It's hard to say where the sweet spot lies on an Irving contract. Dallas should be nervous about handing over more than two guaranteed years, but one would assume Irving expects at least three. This will get dicey. And even if the Mavericks retain Irving at non-migraine-inducing terms, they still have to figure out how to build a defense around him and Dončić.

Denver Nuggets: Keeping or Replacing Bruce Brown

Neither Jeff Green nor Ish Smith is integral to the Denver Nuggets' operation, which leaves Bruce Brown as the only free agent of note. Assuming the 26-year-old guard declines his $6.8 million player option, he can enter a market that may only feature a handful of other starting-caliber wings.

A plus defender in four of his five NBA seasons, Brown has flashed diverse skills across three stops that should make him appealing to virtually any team. He's been a point guard, an undersized roll man and a three-and-D wing. That versatility could drive up bidding and net Brown more than twice the $6.5 million he earned in 2022-23, and $15-20 million per season isn't out of the question.

Denver only has Brown's non-Bird rights, which means the most it can offer him on a new deal is a starting salary of around $7.7 million, or 120 percent of what he made in 2022-23. The only way to boost that number would be to maneuver under the tax, which would free up the full mid-level exception. Even that might not be enough.

The Nuggets got a career year from Brown, who started 31 of the 80 games he played and averaged 11.5 points on solid efficiency. Extending that relationship will require extreme creativity from the Nuggets or Brown turning down better offers. More than likely, Denver will have to find a cheap wing to replace what Brown provided this past season.

Detroit Pistons: Who's In Charge Here?

The worst record in the league only gives the Detroit Pistons a 14.0 percent chance at landing Victor Wembanyama, and they'll face a difficult and unwelcome decision if they pick anywhere other than first in the 2023 draft. But that issue is out of their hands for now, so it's better to focus on a choice within their control: the identity of the next head coach.

Dwane Casey moved into a front-office role after presiding over an injury-hit 17-65 campaign, and his replacement will face a litany of challenges starting with a young roster that could be in danger of developing bad habits in a losing environment. Remember, this is a franchise that won 20, 20 and 23 games prior to last year. Not every Detroit youngster was around for all that losing, but that much failure can fester, poisoning the vibe throughout the franchise.

The Pistons have shown a willingness to bring vets aboard—and pay them to stay in the case of Bojan Bogdanović—but this is still an inexperienced roster led by the hopefully healthy Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, both of whom are just 21. The next head coach will need to be more of a teacher and nurturer than a tactical mastermind.

Golden State Warriors: Draymond Green and Second-Apron Pain

The changes to the CBA and the penalties of the second apron (aka the hard cap team governors snuck in through a side door) probably weren't specifically designed to tear down the Golden State Warriors. But they're the first team we've covered so far whose offseason will be dramatically affected by the new rules.

Draymond Green, whose $26.7 million player option could put Golden State to its toughest micro decision this summer, said so himself on his podcast in a macro analysis of the new CBA:

"Quite frankly with this new CBA, dynasties are over. There will not be a dynasty. So you all complained about the Golden State Warriors. 'Oh man, KD came to the Warriors and blah, blah, blah.' You don't have to deal with that anymore. But you'll also lose a huge part of the game, a huge part of sports, which is dynasties being built. So, hey, we the last dynasty."

If the Warriors bring Green back on a new deal at roughly the same pay rate as his last one, they'll face a future without the use of the mid-level exception, severe trade limitations, buyout restrictions and even draft pick devaluation. As if it wasn't already going to be hard enough to negotiate a contract with a player as valuable, controversial and integral to the franchise as Green, now the Dubs have to weigh all these additional costs down the line.

It almost makes only worrying about a tax bill seem quaint.

Houston Rockets: Does a Costly Vet Really Make Sense?

Houston Rockets general manager Rafael Stone intends to use the largest projected heap of cap space in the league to sign veterans who'll help guide the team's youth and produce wins.

He said in his exit interview, "... we'll be aggressive no matter what happens in the draft."

Of course, Stone has spoken in similar terms for years. "Aggressive" is one of his favorite words. He just changes the modifier. Sometimes it's "extraordinarily." Others, it's "super."

Targeting James Harden, who is "seriously considering a return" to the Rockets, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, would certainly qualify as aggressive. Although, the right modifier there might be "unreasonably" or "irrationally."

Houston has won 59 total games over the last three years and doesn't have a cornerstone piece to show for its last two lottery picks. While an experienced player or two could establish a culture and teach good habits, spending big on an aging star could also be construed as skipping steps.

The Rockets could always use their cap space to take on big, unwanted contracts with picks attached instead. Considering how bright the futures of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Utah Jazz look, that strategy should have some appeal.

If the Rockets want to get better in a hurry, it's hard to fault them. These last three years have been awfully lean. But rushing to field a .500 team can be dangerous, particularly if that approach includes fat contracts for declining players.

Indiana Pacers: Whether to Consolidate Draft Picks

Tyrese Haliburton was an All-Star, the clearest reason for the Indiana Pacers' success (check out that 7-19 record in games he missed) and the first player in history to average at least 20.0 points and 10.0 assists while shooting over 40.0 percent from three.

If it's possible for a $204 million decision to be easy, this is it. Indy can commit that much cash to Haliburton on a five-year extension, with the possibility it could grow to $245 million if he makes All-NBA next season. The Pacers shouldn't hesitate to lock down their cornerstone.

Beyond that, nine of Indiana's top 10 in total minutes are under guaranteed contract for 2023-24, with reserve forward Oshae Brissett the only free agent in the bunch. With so little roster turnover ahead, the Pacers may want to think about consolidating their draft capital. They have three first-round selections, including the seventh-best shot at the No. 1 overall pick.

The No. 50 and 55 picks (via Miami and Cleveland, respectively) are basically throwaways, but Indiana might be able to move up a few slots by packaging No. 26 (via Cleveland) and No. 29 (via Boston). South Carolina's G.G. Jackson might be available in the late teens, and the athletic 6'9" forward could help the Pacers avoid another revolving-door season at the 4. Packaging their picks and adding some sweetener could be enough to move up and snag him.

Los Angeles Clippers: To Russ, or not to Russ?

The Los Angeles Clippers have a seemingly bottomless budget, an appetite only for contention and a new arena to open in 2024-25. That means Kawhi Leonard and Paul George probably aren't going anywhere—even if their consistent unavailability has resulted in much less playoff success than fans or ownership expected when the two paired up four years ago.

That leaves one other high-profile issue to address: Do the Clips want to find out if Russell Westbrook's late-season resurgence was the result of legitimate reform or desperation?

Westbrook came to the Clips after a trade and a buyout, a transactional two-step that tends to signal the end of the line for former stars. Declining play and failed stints with the Rockets, Wizards and Lakers made it hard to imagine Russ could contribute in L.A., but he was legitimately helpful down the stretch and led all Clippers in postseason minutes.

If the Clips think Westbrook can play near the level he showed in his 26 games with the team this year, they'd be foolish not to offer the most they can in free agency. That will top out at a starting salary of just $3.8 million, which feels a little light. But considering Westbrook's recent track record and comfort in Los Angeles, that might be enough.

On the other hand, the Clippers could prefer to trade for a steadier presence at the point. Teams that have cast their full-season lot with Russ have tired of the experience pretty quickly of late.

Los Angeles Lakers: Which Free-Agent Point Guard to Choose?

An unrestricted free agent with a $38.7 million cap hold, D'Angelo Russell made this one easy for us when The Athletic's Sam Amick asked him about his future role with the Los Angeles Lakers.

"They've got a decision to make, don't they?" Russell responded.

Indeed they do.

Russell had a productive offensive season overall, but he shot the ball better after the trade that brought him to the Lakers. In the postseason, his streaky shooting and secondary facilitation have been key to giving an occasionally cramped attack some breathing room. In his prime at 27, Russell would seem to be the right kind of player for the Lakers to keep.

Of course, in addition to determining whether Russell and his lack of defensive oomph are worth star-level cash, there's also the franchise's historic thirst for big names and the specter of Kyrie Irving.

The Athletic's Jovan Buha told HoopsHype's Michael Scotto the Lakers won't pursue Irving in free agency, but the point guard's connection with LeBron James and appearance courtside for a playoff game suggest nothing is certain. L.A. will sign a starting point guard, but it's hard to say which one.

Memphis Grizzlies: Who'll Replace Dillon Brooks?

Dillon Brooks oozes infectious bravado, belongs on the short list of the league's best defenders and has played an integral role in the regular-season success of the Memphis Grizzlies over the last couple of seasons.

Also in that calculus: the obvious downside of Brooks' bear-poking, his status as the NBA's least efficient high-volume shooter (yes, significantly worse than Russell Westbrook) and the looming question of whether the young Grizzlies would be better off without someone so unwilling to be accountable in defeat.

The Grizzlies reportedly slammed the door on his return, a wise move. But now they need to figure out who'll replace Brooks in the first unit.

There's something to be said for preserving a salary slot, and Memphis could have signed Brooks to a deal with the intention of trading him. Instead, they'll have to hope the MLE is enough to land the likes of Harrison Barnes or Kelly Oubre Jr.

Miami Heat: Strus, Vincent or Something Better?

Even with $1.8 million cap holds for Max Strus and Gabe Vincent as part of the calculus, the Miami Heat's projected payroll and tax for 2023-24 is less than $1 million short of the second apron—and that's without adding minimum-salaried players to fill out the rest of the roster.

The Heat have full Bird rights on Strus and Vincent, so they can re-sign both without using cap exceptions. But if they command salaries at or above, say, $10 million per season, the Heat will blow past the second apron and sacrifice several roster-building tools for 2024-25 and beyond. Considering Strus and Vincent have both been effective full-time starters during the Heat's improbable playoff run, $10 million per year might even sell them short.

If Miami makes the Finals, it'd be hard to justify letting either of them get away in unrestricted free agency.

The alternative we always have to consider with the Heat involves the pursuit of bigger names. Maybe a package built around Tyler Herro and first-round picks in 2023 and 2028 would be enough to start a dialogue with the Washington Wizards on Bradley Beal or the Atlanta Hawks on Trae Young. The big-game-hunting hypothetical would also push the Heat past the second apron, but maybe they'd be more willing to do that for a star.

Milwaukee Bucks: Will Everyone Be Back?

If Khris Middleton picks up his $40.4 million player option and unrestricted free agent Brook Lopez comes back on a new deal that pays him in the neighborhood of the $13 million per year he earned on his last contract, the Milwaukee Bucks will face the pain of the second apron.

Middleton could opt out and re-sign a long-term contract that pays him less annually, but Lopez's play this past season suggests he's worthy of a raise. Either way, the Bucks will have to spend significantly to keep this starting group together. After that, they have to figure out how to rebuild a bench loaded with free agents. Jae Crowder, Joe Ingles, Jevon Carter (player option) and Wesley Matthews will likely be the highest retention priorities.

Let's not forget picking a head coach to replace Mike Budenholzer.

The Bucks won a championship in 2021 with this core, but it may be impossible for the front office to go forward with all of the same principals that just contributed to one of the biggest upset defeats in modern playoff history.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Time to Trade KAT?

The easiest offseason call on the Minnesota Timberwolves' list is a max extension for Anthony Edwards, which could be worth up to $249 million if the rising superstar makes an All-NBA team in 2023-24. Edwards improved across the board in his third season, was named an All-Star and averaged 31.6 points per game in the Wolves' first-round loss to the Denver Nuggets.

The 21-year-old is exactly the kind of first-option offensive initiator and developing defender smart teams lock down at the first opportunity.

Paying Edwards would mean rostering three max-salaried players when his deal kicks in for the 2024-25 season, though, and it's hard to imagine Minnesota will be comfortable with that. Karl-Anthony Towns flopped yet again in the playoffs, can't anchor a defense (which is why max-salary player No. 3, Rudy Gobert, is here in the first place) and has seen his early-career durability disappear. KAT missed five total regular-season games in his first four seasons but has played 50 or fewer in three of the last four.

Gobert's declining play, age and massive salary make him much harder to move for positive value, so any significant cost-cutting or roster reorganization has to start with Towns. Despite the negatives above, KAT has made two All-NBA teams and provides uncommon stretch on offense. It's much easier to imagine a trade partner talking itself into him than Gobert.

It complicates matters that Towns played only 29 games and didn't give Minnesota's decision-makers much of a sample on which to judge his chemistry with Gobert and Edwards. But eight years of evidence that KAT can't reliably carry a team to the playoffs or do much once he's there suggest the Wolves know enough to put him on the block.

New Orleans Pelicans: Are the Bookends Good Enough?

The New Orleans Pelicans are set at the 2, 3 and 4 with Herb Jones, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson slated to occupy those spots for the foreseeable future. Jones is extension-eligible this summer and could command a significant raise, maybe in the range of or above the four-year, $55.5 million deal Dorian Finney Smith got in February of 2022.

The point guard and center spots are more pressing issues. CJ McCollum will earn $35.8 million in 2023-24, and the value of his on-ball shot creation diminishes with Williamson functioning as the first option. McCollum is a capable shooter but doesn't provide any defensive heft. Lineups with him on the floor and Williamson off were barely average on offense and mostly punchless on D.

While there's room for debate about McCollum's place on the team going forward, there should be no argument about Jonas Valančiūnas. A poor rim-protector with limited mobility on D, Valančiūnas never made sense as a complement for Williamson and Ingram. And it's telling that backup Larry Nance Jr. averaged more fourth-quarter minutes than the guy New Orleans started ahead of him.

Filter for clutch time, and the gap grows. Nance Jr. played nearly three times as many minutes in close-and-late situations as Valanciunas. It's clear the Pels don't see JV as their best big in the moments that matter, so they should make an effort to swap out his salary for a better fit whom they might actually use in high-leverage situations.

New York Knicks: Our Guys or Other Guys?

With the exception of RJ Barrett, the New York Knicks' under-25 contributors mostly flopped in the postseason. Sixth Man runner-up Immanuel Quickley's offense disappeared, Quentin Grimes couldn't buy a bucket and Miles McBride barely played at all. Those underwhelming efforts will inform New York's plans this summer, when it could either stick to its approach of conservative development or finally push some chips in for a star.

The former path would involve handing rookie extensions to Quickley and/or Toppin, re-signing Josh Hart after he inevitably declines his player option and banking on organic improvement across the board. The latter would see the Knicks package up some prospects and salary (perhaps led by Barrett, Quickley and Evan Fournier) with a grab bag of future first-rounders in exchange for an All-Star.

New York eschewed that tack last offseason, signing Brunson and holding onto assets it could have sent out for Donovan Mitchell. In the light of this year's stellar performance, which resulted in the No. 5 seed and advancement to the second round of the playoffs, there's a lot favoring a similarly measured approach.

Then again, the postseason suggested the Knicks need someone a tier higher than Brunson and Julius Randle to really make noise. Maybe collective improvement from the players on hand could raise New York's ceiling just as high by committee, but it's harder to believe that now than it was before the playoffs.

Oklahoma City Thunder: What Can $30 Million Buy?

If the Oklahoma City Thunder renounce their various trade exceptions and waive the four players—Isaiah Joe, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Aaron Wiggins and Lindy Waters III—on non-guaranteed deals, they could clear upwards of $36 million in cap space. Due to shrewd management, they won't need to get nearly that drastic to flex spending power this offseason.

The Thunder can still wield around $30 million if they operate more conservatively, and that should be enough to make them serious players in free agency if they choose to go that route.

Cap space has plenty of uses, though, and OKC could use its resources to bring back Dario Šarić, take on bad salary with picks attached or poke around for lower-end improvements on short deals. That said, restricted free agent Cameron Johnson is an ideal fit and would team with Joe (a no-brainer retention) and the returning Chet Holmgren to add badly needed stretch on offense.

The Thunder were 12th in three-point attempts per game and 17th in accuracy, despite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander collapsing defenses with his drives. Adding Johnson, a career 39.3 percent shooter from deep, could supercharge the offense—if OKC is willing to spend virtually all of its cap space on one player.

Orlando Magic: How Do We Upgrade the Guard Spots?

Markelle Fultz's career resuscitation is encouraging, but he was still the best of mostly bad options among Orlando Magic guards last season. It's telling when a lead ball-handler hits 31.0 percent of his threes and stands out among his positional peers.

Cole Anthony is a decent bench spark, while Jalen Suggs can defend but has yet to shoot it or pass it well enough to profile as a rotation piece on a good team. Other than veteran Gary Harris, the Magic's backcourt was pretty much devoid of quality contributors. So, as Orlando looks to build out a roster capable of a playoff push in 2023-24, it will have to focus on its guards.

With Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero providing so much scoring and shot creation from the forward spots, it shouldn't be that hard to upgrade the backcourt. The Magic don't need triple threats at the 1 and 2; guys who can make spot-up shots and pierce the paint against closeouts would be sufficient.

Whether it means trading Jonathan Isaac, using their lottery pick on a Fultz upgrade or seeing whether free agent Fred VanVleet could be had for something under $25 million per season, the Magic must improve the guard spots.

Philadelphia 76ers: James Harden's Next Contract

Some nights, James Harden looks like he's a no-questions-asked, max-salaried superstar. Others, he shoots 2-of-14, can't get to the basket and defends as if his feet are magnetically attached to the floor.

The Philadelphia 76ers don't have the resources to replace Harden if he declines his player option and leaves in free agency. And though he's been inconsistent in the playoffs, his overall performance has been positively impactful—just as it was during the regular season. Are those good enough reasons to pay max rates for a soon-to-be 34-year-old with obviously diminished athleticism and a wandering eye?

Harden could take that decision off Philly's plate entirely. If he opts out, he'll be an unrestricted free agent at liberty to sign wherever he wants for whatever he wants. The Rockets would be happy to have him, and that fact alone means a competitive 76ers offer may need to include as much money as is allowed.

If the Sixers bring back Harden on a deal that starts at his maximum of $46.9 million, they'll almost certainly be above the second tax apron after filling out the rest of the roster. That might not be an issue right away if the league implements the CBA changes gradually, but it could put the Sixers in a tough position once the penalties are enforced down the line.

Keeping Harden, then, will be about more than just the cost of his deal. It could also severely limit Philadelphia's other roster-building tools in the future.

Phoenix Suns: Ayton? Paul? Both? Neither?

Chris Paul hasn't suffered his annual postseason flameout this year, but that may only be because he strained his groin in Game 2 of the second round against the Nuggets. It's not a great sign when the only thing preventing underperformance is injury.

The Phoenix Suns will have to carefully weigh whether they want to go forward relying on a 38-year-old point guard in clear decline with a habit of postseason slippage. Only $15.8 million of Paul's $30.8 million salary for 2023-24 is guaranteed.

Phoenix must also decide whether Deandre Ayton is part of its core. The Suns matched a four-year, $132.9 million offer sheet to retain him last summer, but he's endured fourth-quarter benchings and has looked disinterested in competing at times in the playoffs—just like he did a year ago. After July 14, the Suns can trade Ayton without his consent. For a squad clearly lacking depth, swapping out a $32 million salary for a couple of cheaper ones makes all the sense in the world.

If Phoenix holds onto its core of Ayton, Paul, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, renounces its rights to every free agent on the roster and retains Landry Shamet, Cameron Payne and Ish Wainright, it'll head into the summer owing $171.1 million to just seven players. That doesn't feel like a sustainable route alongside the depth issues the playoffs have exposed.

To deepen the roster and give the KD-Booker duo more help, Phoenix will have to decide whether spending over $63 million on Paul and Ayton is worth it.

Portland Trail Blazers: Is Jerami Grant Worth It?

In January, Jerami Grant told Jason Quick of The Athletic that the Portland Trail Blazers had offered him a four-year, $112 million contract, but he said he would wait until the end of the season before making a decision. If we assume that offer represents the floor of his free-agent expectations, the Portland Trail Blazers need to ask themselves some tough questions.

Can they justify spending upwards of $30 million per season on a player who theoretically addressed key needs but wasn't impactful enough to help them avoid another late-season tank and lottery berth? Do they even have the option of letting the 29-year-old forward go when his exit would fly in the face of the stated organizational aim of giving Damian Lillard a supporting cast capable of helping him contend?

Grant averaged 20.5 points this season and shot a career-best 40.1 percent from long range. He also posted the best Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus of any Blazer to average at least 30.0 minutes per game. It seems like he's indispensable...but can that really be true of any third-option veteran on a lottery team?

It certainly seems as if Portland needs what Grant can provide, but competition on the market and Grant's apparent lack of enthusiasm for a deal that'd average $28 million per year might mean the Blazers need to think hard about what they're willing to spend.

With Shaedon Sharpe surging late and another high lottery pick coming, it'd be easy enough for the Blazers to trade Lillard and pivot into a hard rebuild. Their decision on Grant's pay rate could signal what's in store for the next several years.

Sacramento Kings: What Will the Next Step Require?

Forty-eight wins and a feisty first-round performance that took the defending champions to the absolute brink mean the Sacramento Kings are ready to start thinking about what they need to make an even deeper run next season.

De'Aaron Fox punched his superstar card, and Mike Brown validated his Coach of the Year win with clever tactical adjustments against the Dubs. But you'd be hard-pressed to single out anyone other than bench scoring dynamo Malik Monk as a no-questions-asked postseason performer.

Free agent Harrison Barnes' voice matters in the young locker room, but he couldn't impact the game defensively against Golden State. Domantas Sabonis is certainly a keeper, but his weaknesses on the defensive glass and as a perimeter shooter severely hurt his team's chances. Trey Lyles, another free agent, was an intriguing change of pace at the 5 later in the series, but the Kings still need more rangy perimeter defenders and another big man who won't get exposed in key areas on both ends.

Maybe Keegan Murray can help in both regards as he matures.

Sacramento will be tempted to preserve the positive vibes of this season and run it back, trusting in organic growth. But practically speaking, it needs at least two more postseason-ready rotation pieces if it intends to follow up its breakthrough campaign with a better one in 2023-24.

San Antonio Spurs: Devin Vassell's Extension

The San Antonio Spurs tend to keep their guys around. Past draftees Dejounte Murray, Derrick White and Keldon Johnson all got extensions after their rookie deals.

Devin Vassell is eligible for the same treatment this summer. While the Spurs should clearly want him back, settling the numbers could be tricky.

Vassell played just 38 games in his age-22 season, but he showed significant growth on and off the ball. He amassed his career-best 18.5 points per game on more self-sufficient offense than ever, scoring just 45.6 percent of his two-point field goals on assists from teammates. And when the third-year wing operated as an outlet, he was one of the most accurate spacers in the league. Among players who attempted as many as Vassell's 4.9 catch-and-shoot threes per game, only Al Horford and Michael Porter Jr. topped his 43.2 percent hit rate.

Cutting against all that is the losing environment in which the Spurs have operated for all of Vassell's career. It's never easy to judge a player who's only ever seen low-stakes competition. Add to that his struggles around the rim—19th percentile among wings in frequency and 35th in accuracy—and it's not clear he'll ever be a complete offensive threat.

Still, if San Antonio can secure Vassell on a deal like the one Johnson signed this past summer—four years and $80 million—it should jump at the chance. Given Vassell's more developed shooting and on-ball skill, though, it's possible that won't be nearly enough.

Toronto Raptors: Fred VanVleet's Next Contract

The Toronto Raptors' decision not to trade Fred VanVleet at last season's deadline suggested they viewed him as part of the team's core. If the Raptors didn't intend to re-sign him after he opts out of his current deal, which seems inevitable, they would have surely dealt him so they could avoid losing him for nothing.

Now that the Raptors have moved on from Nick Nurse and offered proclamations to reporters about making major changes, perhaps the team's stance on VanVleet (and everyone else who contributed to two straight disappointing seasons) is unsettled.

VanVleet seems less culpable than most of his teammates for the bad vibes and stagnant offense that cost Nurse his job. The 29-year-old has a long history of playing hard and operating unselfishly. He was also the point guard for one of the league's worst half-court offenses and shot 39.3 percent from the field. Add to that the scary aging curve for small guards, and Toronto has several reasons to hesitate on re-signing FVV.

If Kyrie Irving returns to Dallas, VanVleet will be the best point guard on the market by a healthy margin. Though you might assume that would push the Raptors toward re-signing him, it might also drive up the bidding to prohibitively costly levels. With change in the air, Toronto will have to determine how much it's willing to spend to retain the same point guard.

Utah Jazz: Jordan Clarkson's Future

The Utah Jazz have a couple of roster decisions that could signal their willingness (or lack thereof) to build on last year's surprising competitiveness.

The first is the possible extension for Talen Horton-Tucker, who leveled up as the full-time starting point guard after the All-Star break. He's eligible for as much as $60.9 million over four years if he exercises his player option. Those are reasonable numbers in light of THT's closing run, but one wonders whether the Jazz have grander point-guard goals in free agency. With as much as $30 million in cap space, they could aim higher.

The other telling decision pertains to Jordan Clarkson.

Coming off a career season marked by 20.8 points and 4.4 assists per game, Clarkson is likely to decline his $14.2 million player option. Do the Jazz view him as a clear starter going forward, one they believe can drive winning as they look to improve on last season's 37 wins? Or do his historically iffy defense and below-average scoring efficiency mean he's not quite good enough to help Utah ascend?

Clarkson's return isn't a given, and the terms of his next contract are uncertain. The only sure thing is that we'll learn a lot about where the Jazz think they are in their rebuild based on the outcome of his potential free agency.

Washington Wizards: Is the Status Quo Sufficient?

Kristaps Porziņģis and Kyle Kuzma are both likely to hit unrestricted free agency by declining their player options, and the Washington Wizards' proclivity to overpay for in-house talent suggests both could be back on rich new deals. Bradley Beal's quarter-billion-dollar contract, complete with the only no-trade clause in the sport, is a prime example.

In a vacuum, it makes sense to retain 27-year-olds Porziņģis, who stayed relatively healthy and produced a career-best season, and Kuzma, a combo forward who just averaged a personal-best 21.2 points per game.

But it won't be cheap to keep their top two free agents at market rates. Porziņģis could command over $30 million per year, and Kuzma may not be far behind. In that scenario, Washington would lock itself into paying well over $100 million per season on just three players for the next several years. In that scenario, it'd be almost impossible to fill out the rest of the roster without incurring onerous luxury tax penalties.

More broadly, does it really make sense to keep the same core (on significant raises) when it produced just 35 wins in 2022-23? It's not like Beal, Porziņģis or Kuzma are in the stages of their careers where significant growth is likely. These are all players in their late 20s and early 30s, and two of them are coming off peak years. Odds are, Washington would be paying a premium for players who are more likely to decline than improve.

Then again, the Wizards don't have the resources to replace KP or Kuzma with outside signings. This is a real rock-and-a-hard-place situation—one that illustrates the pitfalls of constantly striving for a .500 record and a low playoff seed.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.