The Kansas City Chiefs are once again expected to dominate the NFL in 2023 after winning the Super Bowl.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs are tied for the highest win total over-under for next season at 11.5, alongside the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers. The Philadelphia Eagles are expected to take a slight step back with a win total of 10.5 after going 14-3 last season.
The totals for each team were released for the first time Saturday:
Though there could be major changes as the offseason continues, here are the projections for each team as of March 25.
2023 NFL Season Over-Under Win Totals
Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5
Cincinnati Bengals: 11.5
San Francisco 49ers: 11.5
Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5
Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.5
Buffalo Bills: 10.5
New York Jets: 9.5
New Orleans Saints: 9.5
Detroit Lions: 9.5
Miami Dolphins: 9.5
Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5
Cleveland Browns: 9.5
Dallas Cowboys: 9.5
New York Giants: 8.5
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5
Baltimore Ravens: 8.5
Denver Broncos: 8.5
Seattle Seahawks: 8.5
Minnesota Vikings: 8.5
Los Angeles Rams: 7.5
New England Patriots: 7.5
Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5
Green Bay Packers: 7.5
Atlanta Falcons: 7.5
Carolina Panthers: 7.5
Chicago Bears: 7.5
Washington Commanders: 7.5
Tennessee Titans: 7.5
Indianapolis Colts: 6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6.5
Houston Texans: 5.5
Arizona Cardinals: 5.5
Some notable quarterback shifts seemingly created significant changes in the betting odds.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the AFC South with an 8-9 record last year, but they have one of the lowest projected totals at 6.5 after the retirement of Tom Brady. There aren't high expectations for the combination of Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield heading into next season.
The New York Jets, meanwhile, are expected to add Aaron Rodgers if they can work out a trade with the Green Bay Packers. It's enough to put their total at 9.5 wins, while Packers have just a 7.5-win total with Jordan Love expected to take over under center.
In the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints have the highest win total (9.5) after signing veteran quarterback Derek Carr.
Though the San Francisco 49ers have uncertainty at quarterback, they proved it doesn't matter as much after going 13-4 with three different starters last year. Whether Brock Purdy, Trey Lance or even Sam Darnold is QB1, the 49ers still have high expectations.
Other teams are expected to take significant leaps in 2023, most notably the Jacksonville Jaguars with a over/under of 10.5.
Though it would take just two more wins than last season to hit the over, the 11 wins would be the franchise's best mark since 2007. A lot of things would have to go right for Trevor Lawrence and Co. to reach the expectations.
The Detroit Lions would also be looking to defy recent history, with the 9.5 projected wins being more than any season since 2014.
From the other perspective, there are low expectations for the Baltimore Ravens amid uncertainty surrounding Lamar Jackson. The Ravens placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on the quarterback, but it remains to be seen if he will be with the team in 2023.
If Jackson does return, reaching the 8.5 projected win total would be much easier.
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