Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images

Top Offseason Priorities for NBA's Most Disappointing Teams

Grant Hughes

It's easy to spot the NBA's underachievers. We already did it earlier this season. The hard part is fixing them.

We'll pull from the field of teams we labeled disappointments in early March, even hitting the honorable mentions from that list for completeness' sake. In the weeks since we highlighted those squads, a few have worked hard to change their fates. Playoff runs are possible for more than one of them, which would make including them on that previous list (and this one) look foolish. Most, though, are ticketed for early playoff exits that will fall short of preseason expectations.

Some may not even play beyond game No. 82. Looking at you, Portland Trail Blazers.

Wherever these squads end up, they've given us enough of a sample to pinpoint the issues that have held them back to this point. If they want better results next year, these are the key areas on which they should focus in the offseason.

In a best-case scenario, these clubs will recognize what went wrong and work to correct it via the draft, free agency or trade. Fail to do that, and the worst-case scenario comes into play: winding up on this same list—for the same reason—next year.

And nobody wants that.

Atlanta Hawks: Make the John Collins Trade

Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

Barring an unlikely surge to close 2022-23, the Atlanta Hawks are on pace to continue their three-year trend of declining win percentages. With the defense still a wreck and the offense underwhelming relative to past highs, that Eastern Conference Finals trip in 2021 feels like it happened a decade ago.

No one move will cure everything that ails the Hawks, and they've already pulled most of the available levers by shaking up the front office and replacing head coach Nate McMillan with Quin Snyder. But one piece of unfinished business looms large, and finally addressing it could be the first step toward making sure the Hawks don't extend their year-over-year slide to a fourth season in 2023-24.

Yep, it's time to trade John Collins.

You'd be forgiven for thinking that suggestion was cut and pasted from almost any time in the last 18 months. Collins basically set up permanent residence in the rumor mill at some point last year and hasn't left since.

The forces pushing Atlanta to move the struggling power forward will only intensify. In addition to the mental strain such prolonged uncertainty must be putting on Collins (which could be as big of a factor in his brutal year as the injured finger knocking his jumper offline), the Hawks' recent transactions have basically made keeping him around financially untenable. Unless Atlanta is as open to paying the luxury tax as team governor Tony Ressler claims, a highly dubious proposition in light of last summer's tax-ducking trade of Kevin Huerter, something's got to give.

Dejounte Murray cost Atlanta a mint to acquire, and he'll hit unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2024. Teams don't tend to surrender multiple first-rounders for rentals, and removing Collins' remaining $78.5 million over the next three years could help ensure the necessary cash will be available to pay Murray. Don't forget deadline acquisition Saddiq Bey's extension eligibility this summer, either.

It's not easy to offload a salary like Collins', particularly when his value is as low as it's been in years. But a handful of teams—the Indiana Pacers, Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz come to mind—have the flexibility to take Collins into space with draft capital attached. Hopefully, Collins' status as a quality starter as recently as 2021-22 will keep the Hawks from having to include too many sweeteners in a package sending him out.

With Collins gone, the Hawks can pivot to smaller looks with Bey or AJ Griffin joining De'Andre Hunter at the forward spots. Clint Capela can still anchor the middle, and playing more wings instead of Collins could help the Hawks fix their 23rd-ranked three-point accuracy rate. Much has gone wrong for Atlanta, but a lot of the difference between this year and last can be traced to its shooting woes. The Hawks were No. 3 in three-point percentage in 2021-22.

Better coaching, improved performance from Trae Young and another year of chemistry building should help Atlanta right the ship. But moving Collins to clear space and change the lineup construction should be the first order of business.

Chicago Bulls: Face the Music

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

We gave the Hawks a specific instruction, but the Chicago Bulls get a broader fix-it plan. They have to recognize that the current roster isn't built to do more than stay mired in the league's dreaded middle...and should act accordingly.

That means accepting the possibility that Nikola Vučević is not a retention priority in free agency, and that high-priced veterans still under contract like Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan should be on the trade block the second the season ends. Even Alex Caruso could bring back a first-round pick in trade due to his coveted defensive ability and paltry $9.5 million salary for 2023-24.

This is a full tear-down directive.

Maybe we wouldn't have to get quite so severe if Lonzo Ball had a brighter outlook. But the man who was apparently integral to Chicago's last bout of stellar play during the first half of 2021-22 underwent cartilage transplant surgery on his left knee on March 20, and his return to an NBA floor is totally uncertain.

LaVine has his own history of knee issues, and the $178 million he'll collect over the next four years should give suitors pause. But during an offseason in which few top-end players figure to change teams in free agency, LaVine could be a highly sought-after commodity if the Bulls make him available. Chicago could get back young talent and three or four first-rounders if the market offers few other options.

DeRozan will be on an expiring $28.6 million salary in 2023-24 and could bring back at least one quality first-rounder from a contender in need of scoring. In both his and LaVine's case, the Bulls shouldn't balk at taking back bad money with draft picks attached.

Part of the reason Chicago should consider a wholesale restart has to do with the standings. This group's play-in spot is probably safe, but the best-case scenario for this season is a quick first-round elimination, followed by the pain of watching its first-round pick convey to the Orlando Magic. Bright side: once that pick changes hands, the Bulls' only outgoing obligation is a 2025 protected first-rounder owed to the San Antonio Spurs, which will be offset by an incoming top-14 protected first-rounder from the Portland Trail Blazers that should convey at some point between 2023 and 2028.

When you've got control of most of your future firsts, stripping down the roster and entering asset-accumulation (and loss-accumulation) mode makes more sense.

If the Bulls do nothing or if they double down on this aging, increasingly expensive roster, they'll get more of the same. It's time for something different.

Golden State Warriors: Explore Trading Jordan Poole

Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images

If you didn't know better or were only an occasional viewer of the Golden State Warriors, you'd think Jordan Poole's development was progressing just fine. He's averaging career highs in points (20.4) and assists (4.6) and hasn't missed a game all season.

But if you've paid attention regularly, you know the truth: Poole has regressed in several key ways and has been a huge reason the Warriors look nothing like defending champs. For a team that isn't ready to give up on contention and has few other ways to meaningfully alter the roster, trading the 23-year-old combo guard this offseason should be on the table.

The Warriors believed in Poole enough to give him a four-year extension worth up to $140 million this past October, and shopping him so soon afterward might seem hasty. But Poole hasn't been helpful in the way Golden State expected; he's failing as a shot-creator, particularly without Stephen Curry on the court next to him. The Dubs score 111.9 points per 100 possessions with Poole in the game and Curry out, a figure that ranks in the 27th percentile. Overall, the Warriors' net rating is 5.3 points per 100 possessions worse with Poole in the game, and they lose an alarming 7.0 points per 100 possessions from their offensive rating.

Too often, Poole's touches look like And-1 mixtape auditions at the expense of winning plays—much to the frustration of his teammates.

It's not fair to blame the Warriors' disappointing season on Poole alone, but his individual shortcomings tie directly to those of his team. Golden State is 29th in turnover rate, and Poole's carelessness with the ball, which has him sitting in the 13th percentile at his position in giveaway rate, is undeniably connected. He's also a low-effort, spacey turnstile on defense, constantly out of position and gambling in ways that compromise the entire operation.

With breakdowns like that, it's no wonder the Warriors have spent so much of the year scrambling and hacking on defense, allowing opponents to get to the foul line at a bottom-third rate in the league.

The Warriors won't trade Curry or Klay Thompson. Ditto for Andrew Wiggins, whose absence due to an undisclosed personal matter has admittedly had as much of a negative impact as Poole's play. Draymond Green might be moveable, and he has a decision to make on his 2023-24 player option. But trading him might cause open revolt among the championship core.

That leaves Poole, whose poison pill status made him basically impossible to deal this year. Once that changes on July 1, the Dubs should be on the phone gauging his value around the league. When he racks up the occasional 19-point fourth quarter, teams in need of scoring will continue to take notice.

Lastly, it's entirely possible Poole's subpar play and the generally disconnected vibes on the team have something to do with Green decking him during the preseason. Framed that way, a split wouldn't just help the Warriors. It might give Poole, a player who featured prominently in a title run in his age-22 season, the change of scenery he needs to get his game back in order.

Los Angeles Lakers: Open the Checkbook

Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images

The Los Angeles Lakers should forget the fanciful pursuit of flashy free agents, namely Kyrie Irving, and focus instead on options closer to home. They need to spend their cash on the players they already have.

Talent retention isn't always advisable. The Washington Wizards seem like a good bet to overspend on new deals for Kristaps Porziņģis and Kyle Kuzma, assuming both opt out, and above-market payouts for both will wipe out Washington's financial flexibility for the foreseeable future. The Lakers' circumstances are different. They have good reason to believe that bringing back D'Angelo Russell (unrestricted), Malik Beasley (team option), Austin Reaves (restricted), Rui Hachimura (restricted), Mo Bamba (non-guaranteed) and several other incumbents is the best way forward.

Good news! It sounds like the Lakers understand this.

Renouncing rights and clearing cap holds could give Los Angeles the room to pursue Irving or another big name, but at the cost of virtually all its roster depth. The Lakers would be better served to trust the moves they made during the 2022-23 season and give their new lineup options a chance. Though they've only seen 38 possessions together, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Jarred Vanderbilt, Russell and Beasley have outscored teams by a whopping 26.4 points per 100 possessions when sharing the floor. Throw in Reaves and his recent flashes of takeover potential, sign a rotation piece using the mid-level exception and that's a solid seven-man group.

If one of Hachimura, Schröder, Max Christie or even Lonnie Walker IV (unrestricted) slots in as a quality eighth man, the Lakers will be in business.

The success of a mostly similar cast in 2023-24 depends entirely on the health of James and Davis, but that'll be true no matter how the Lakers choose to fill out the rest of the roster. Of course, the lack of depth that'd result from chasing down one costly star would make injuries or missed time from James and AD hurt more. L.A. went 8-5 in the 13 games James missed with a foot injury suffered on Feb. 26, and it should view that respectable play as evidence that quantity of talent matters at least as much as high-end quality.

It's probably hard to accept this for disappointed Lakers fans who are used to new, marquee free agents swooping in to save the day, but the best approach this summer is all about keeping what's already on hand.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Focus on Extensions

Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images

With Karl-Anthony Towns finally back after a 51-game absence and some encouraging progress from supporting players over the last couple of months, the mood surrounding the Minnesota Timberwolves is much improved. That said, this Wolves team was supposed to be a regular-season juggernaut after the Rudy Gobert trade, and it finds itself instead scrapping for a play-in spot.

That may make it seem like Minnesota needs to be active in free agency this summer, perhaps seeking additional perimeter defenders and someone better than current backup point guard Jordan McLaughlin to spell Mike Conley—assuming the Wolves fully guarantee the veteran's contract for next year. But the real work is closer to home.

The Wolves need to spend big on their own guys, namely by handing Anthony Edwards a max extension worth up to $204 million and by locking down defensive ace Jaden McDaniels on his own new deal. Projecting McDaniels' market value is tricky, but elite defensive wings who shoot close to 40.0 percent from deep in their age-22 seasons don't tend to come cheap. A four-year agreement worth $100 million might be the reasonable floor for him, especially with the salary cap going up in 2025.

Such wild spending may be hard to stomach for what's essentially been a .500 team this year, particularly with Karl-Anthony Towns' own supermax paying him $224 million from 2024-25 through 2027-28 and Gobert's own pricey deal costing him an average of $44 million per season through 2025-26. Fortunately, neither Edwards' nor McDaniels' hypothetical extensions will begin until 2024-25, when Minnesota's books will feature those massive salaries for Towns and Gobert but will otherwise be extremely clean.

If focusing on big-ticket talent retention means the Wolves have to let Naz Reid and Jaylen Nowell walk in unrestricted free agency, so be it. Conley is worth bringing back just to have his salary slot available for a midseason trade, which might become increasingly likely if Edwards' on-ball game continues to develop. Ideally, the Wolves will manage their lower-priority options in a way that allows them to operate over the cap and under the tax, preserving their ability to use the full mid-level exception. With Taurean Prince's nonguaranteed deal expiring in 2024 and uncertainty surrounding Nickeil Alexander-Walker's upcoming restricted free agency, the MLE could help secure a vital rotation piece.

All that is ancillary to Minnesota's main concern: assuring Edwards and McDaniels are paid and happy ahead of a pivotal 2023-24 campaign.

New Orleans Pelicans: Handle the Center Spot

Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images

If money were no object and the technology were available, the New Orleans Pelicans' first offseason task would be cryogenically freezing Zion Williamson for three months to ensure he entered the 2023-24 season completely healthy. His absence due to a hamstring injury began Jan. 3, and you can pretty cleanly divide New Orleans' season into "before" and "after" chunks around that date...with startling results.

Before: 23-14 record; plus-4.7 net rating (fourth in the league)

After: 14-23 record; minus-1.6 net rating (21st in the league)

Failing that, or assuming less drastic measures are available to preserve Zion's health, the Pels have to upgrade their center spot. Jonas Valanciunas has his uses as a post-up threat, but the 7-footer turns the ball over far too often when doubled, doesn't provide adequate rim protection and prevents the Pelicans from consistently clearing the lane for Williamson's open-floor attacks. New Orleans has been 6.7 points per 100 possessions worse with Valanciunas on the floor than off this year. Even prior to Williamson's injury, the Pelicans' net rating was 6.4 points per 100 possessions better with JV on the bench.

Myles Turner, the floor-spacing, shot-swatting big everyone spent months begging New Orleans to acquire via trade, extended with the Indiana Pacers and is likely off the market now. But the Pelicans have to pursue someone in that vein if they intend to get the best out of Williamson and regain the unofficial title of the NBA's most dangerous up-and-comer, which they held through the first several weeks of 2022-23.

The Pelicans don't project to have cap room and may even be limited to using their tax payer's (rather than the full) mid-level exception in free agency. That won't be enough for them to avoid getting laughed out of the room if they offer it to the likes of Kristaps Porziņģis, Brook Lopez or Nikola Vučević. Fortunately, the Pels have Valanciunas' expiring $15.4 million salary, multiple incoming future first-rounders and no shortage of intriguing young pieces to use in a trade.

There's absolutely a way for New Orleans to make intriguing trade offers for centers. The question has always been about its will. Valanciunas' limitations have been obvious for some time, and the Pelicans have yet to acquire an upgrade.

A call to the center-laden Detroit Pistons to gauge the availability of Isaiah Stewart might be a good start.

Portland Trail Blazers: Defense...Again

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

New year, same story: The Portland Trail Blazers can score with the best of them whenever Damian Lillard is on the floor, but they can't generate enough stops on the other end to make all those buckets count.

Portland's offense ranks among the top 10 and is even more electrifying whenever Lillard is on the floor, but 2022-23 will be the fourth straight year in which its defense finishes in the bottom five.

The Blazers have big-picture concerns centered around maximizing Lillard's prime by giving him a supporting cast capable of contending. That's a big task with high stakes. But the way to achieve it seems pretty simple. Just find a handful of stoppers, and trust that Lillard and Anfernee Simons will find ways to produce enough points. Of course, if it were that easy, the Blazers would have done it by now.

Jerami Grant's free agency looms large. He may command upward of $30 million per season. While Portland should be satisfied by his offensive production—20.5 points on a 47.5/40.1/81.3 shooting split—one could understand the franchise balking at that potential pay rate for a guy who's been, at best, the No. 2 option on a lottery team this season. Grant, along with the since-traded Gary Payton II, was supposed to give the Blazers the defensive oomph they lacked. So much for that.

Assuming the Blazers keep Grant, they must also prioritize retaining deadline acquisition Matisse Thybulle, perhaps the most disruptive wing defender in the league. From there, the focus should turn to the center spot, where Jusuf Nurkić's declining mobility contributes to the team's struggles on D. The 28-year-old is under contract through 2025-26 at a reasonable rate, which may make him a palatable trade option for the right team. Even if Nurkić sticks around, Portland has to look high and low for the type of player unrestricted free agent Justise Winslow was supposed to be—a smart, multi-position defensive piece who can slide into a small-ball 5 role against the right opponents.

Ultimately, a team built around two small guards might never be able to crack the league's top 10 on defense. The Blazers should have learned that lesson with Lillard and CJ McCollum, but they're essentially in the same boat again with Simons joining Dame in the backcourt. Still, Portland could reasonably expect to rank somewhere closer to the middle of the pack on that end if it lands a couple of upgrades and retains the few solid defenders it already has.

Toronto Raptors: Smalls and Bigs

Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via Getty Images

If you've been following the Toronto Raptors over the last two years, you know they've got the middle portion of the positional spectrum handled. Wings and forwards abound. A glut of versatile players in the 6'6" to 6'9" range has its advantages; the Raps are quick defensively, flying around and clogging passing lanes with a thicket of arms. They're on pace to lead the NBA in opponent turnover percentage for the third year in a row.

The drawbacks are also obvious. The Raptors lack shot creators and finishers, roles often occupied by conventional guards and bigs. Toronto is in just the 17th percentile in points per play when the pick-and-roll ball-handler keeps it and is even worse in isolation. Related: The Raptors are 26th in half-court scoring efficiency, just like they were a year ago.

Fred VanVleet and Jakob Poeltl start at point guard and center, respectively, and both are set to enter free agency (VanVleet via a player option he's likely to decline). Toronto should be tempted to bring both of them back because it lacks cap space and won't be able to replace them on the open market. In theory, both players fill integral roles. VanVleet can create shots for himself, and Poeltl is a quality roll man who can also facilitate a bit from the elbows. They've shown solid chemistry together since the deadline.

But the Raptors must also acknowledge that FVV has posted middling assist rates for his position over the last two years and that Poeltl comes with warts as well. He has no shooting range, and his struggles at the foul line can make him a liability late in games.

The Raptors have now gone two full seasons with virtually identical sets of offensive flaws. Is it really the best idea to bring back a couple of players who haven't shown they can correct them? The only thing worse than falling short in the same way across two years is to extend that streak to three.

Barring trades, Toronto's options are limited. It's possible growth from Scottie Barnes and O.G. Anunoby could address the team's longstanding issues on offense, and letting VanVleet walk away after deciding not to trade him at the 2023 deadline would be a serious waste of resources. There's an argument for preserving the status quo, even with the downsides being so obvious.

Either way, the Raptors have to focus on finding or developing players who can get the half-court offense flowing. Do that, and hopefully next year will look better (or at least different) from this year and the one before.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through March 26. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.

   

Read 70 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)