Joel Embiid Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images

Power Rankings: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers Surging Down the Stretch

Andy Bailey

With less than a month left in the NBA regular season, MVP debates are heating up and championship contenders are revealing themselves.

Joel Embiid and his Philadelphia 76ers are a part of both conversations and seemingly peaking at just the right time.

Thanks to the same criteria we've used all season—championship chances, numbers, recent performance and plenty of subjectivity—Philly is riding that wave up the power rankings.

But it's not the only team on the move. To see where everyone lands with just a few weeks to go, scroll below.

30. Detroit Pistons (16-55)

Jalen Duren AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

Previous Rank: 28
Net Rating: -7.2

The Detroit Pistons seem about as committed to a bottom-three record as anyone in the league.

The NBA has seen plenty of success stories for undrafted players over the years, but starting at least two in six straight games is still dicey. That's exactly what Detroit has done.

Unsurprisingly, the Pistons are 1-5 in those games (and 1-13 in their last 14).

Like the other bottom-of-the-standings teams, though, they have at least one young player who shows star upside.

Over his last 18 appearances, in just 25.8 minutes per game, Jalen Duren is putting up 11.3 points, 9.7 rebounds (3.6 of which are offensive) and 1.3 blocks while looking like the kind of high-energy big who can swing a game.

29. San Antonio Spurs (18-51)

Zach Collins Photos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 30
Net Rating: -9.5

Despite having one of the league's worst records, the San Antonio Spurs still have a few bright spots, and Zach Collins may have played his way into that description.

Since the Jakob Poeltl trade Feb. 9, the 25-year-old big man is putting up 15.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.7 threes and 1.2 steals in 12 games while shooting 43.5 percent from deep.

Being a little older than other members of the young core may mean he won't be a long-term fixture for the Spurs, but he's at least giving himself the chance to be.

28. Houston Rockets (17-52)

Alperen Şengün Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

Previous Rank: 29
Net Rating: -8.1

The song has mostly remained the same throughout the 2022-23 season for the Houston Rockets.

The losses keep piling up (though they went 2-1 this week with wins over two of the league's marquee franchises), but there often seems to be at least one young talent who pops in each game.

In the win over the Boston Celtics, it was rookie Jabari Smith Jr. who impressed with 24 points on 9-of-11 shooting, 11 rebounds, three assists, a steal and a block. And in Wednesday's victory over the Los Angeles Lakers, Alperen Şengün went for 13 points, nine boards, six assists and two blocks, while Kevin Porter Jr. scored 27 points on 11-of-16 shooting.

If all the losses lead to another potential star in the draft, and a few of the core pieces find more consistency ahead of next season, Houston has the talent to be far more competitive fairly soon.

27. Charlotte Hornets (22-49)

Kelly Oubre, Caris LeVert and Nick Richards David Jensen/Getty Images

Previous Rank: 27
Net Rating: -5.9

After dropping a home game to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday, the Charlotte Hornets are now 2-6 since LaMelo Ball went down with a season-ending ankle injury.

And it's the handful of veterans (Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward and Kelly Oubre Jr.) who probably prevented an 0-8 run that could've had them closer to the top lottery odds for the No. 1 pick.

Oubre, in particular, may be making himself a little money right now. He's on a $12.6 million expiring contract, but the 25.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.0 threes he's averaged over this stretch may help sell some team on giving him a raise.

26. Orlando Magic (28-42)

Markelle Fultz Kate Frese/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 26
Net Rating: -2.7

Markelle Fultz has quietly been one of the best stories of this NBA season.

After years of injuries and a mysterious case of what seemed like the yips, Fultz has settled into a role and groove that suggest he could be around a while.

After going for 25 points and nine assists in a loss to the Phoenix Suns on Thursday, Fultz is averaging 16.9 points, 5.9 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals over his last 14 games.

If this player is here to stay, a stellar Orlando Magic core that includes Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. is even more intriguing.

25. Portland Trail Blazers (31-38)

Jusuf Nurkić and Damian Lillard Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 24
Net Rating: -1.5

The additions of Jerami Grant and Josh Hart (now a New York Knick) sounded good on paper, but it's starting to look like 2022-23 will go down as another lost year for the Portland Trail Blazers with Damian Lillard.

After an 0-3 week that included a loss to a potential play-in competitor in the New Orleans Pelicans, FiveThirtyEight's projection system now gives the Blazers a 2 percent chance to make the playoffs.

There remains a chance for this season to go down in history for a good reason, though. That's the potential First Team All-NBA nod for Damian Lillard (which would be the second of his career).

Lillard is averaging 32.3 points, 7.3 assists and 4.3 threes. He has 14 40-point games, one 50-pointer, one 60-pointer and one 71-pointer. And Luka Dončić is the only guard he trails in estimated wins (the cumulative version of Dunks and Threes' estimated plus-minus, which is one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices).

24. Indiana Pacers (32-38)

George Hill Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 25
Net Rating: -2.3

On Thursday, George Hill had something of a revenge game against the Milwaukee Bucks (who traded him earlier this season). He had 15 points on 5-of-6 shooting and was a plus-26 in just 23 minutes.

Somehow, he wasn't even Indiana's best reserve in that win. T.J. McConnell was plus-36 in 30 minutes, scored 19 points on 9-of-12 shooting and handed out 11 assists.

Even with Tyrese Haliburton out for Indiana's last three games, the Pacers are in the hunt for a play-in spot, thanks to good coaching and plenty of veterans like Hill, McConnell, Myles Turner and Buddy Hield.

23. Washington Wizards (32-37)

Rodney McGruder and Bradley Beal Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 18
Net Rating: -0.2

Right when it looked like the Washington Wizards might be pulling together for a late run to move beyond those last two play-in spots (which would give them a bit more leeway in the play-in tournament), they went on a 1-5 run in the last two weeks that has them in jeopardy of finishing outside the top 10 altogether.

But they may have halted that skid on Tuesday with a 117-97 win over the Detroit Pistons in which Bradley Beal went for 36 points on 13-of-15 shooting.

On the season, Washington is now 3-0 when Beal scores at least 35.

22. Chicago Bulls (31-37)

Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 20
Net Rating: +0.7

The Chicago Bulls have been a disappointment this season, but there's reason to believe they can compete with the same core in 2023-24 (assuming Nikola Vučević is re-signed).

On the year, Chicago is plus-10.9 points per 100 possessions when Vučević, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso are on the floor.

If the Bulls could add Lonzo Ball (no guarantee, given the health issues he's dealt with over the last two years) and a couple of competent bench players to that mix, they could quickly get back into the playoff hunt.

Of course, the other side of the argument is that we may have already seen this group's peak. And if the front office settles on that, letting Vučević walk and seeing what it can get on the trade market for DeRozan and LaVine would be the play.

In short, just about anything could be on the table this summer.

21. Utah Jazz (33-36)

Walker Kessler and Talen Horton-Tucker AP Photo/Chris Carlson

Previous Rank: 23
Net Rating: +0.2

Whether the front office really wants them to or not, the Utah Jazz are still clinging to contention for a spot in the play-in tournament, but they have the Western Conference's hardest remaining strength of schedule.

This Cinderella story may finally be nearing its conclusion, but that's probably fine. Finishing in the lottery means a better draft pick and maybe even a chance at the top overall pick. And adding that to a young core that's dramatically outperformed expectations will set this team up for plenty of long-term success.

Lauri Markkanen is averaging 25.4 points while shooting 50.5 percent from the field, 40.3 percent from three and 87.0 percent from the free throw line. And he recently joined Kevin Durant as the second player in recorded history with 100-plus dunks and 100-plus threes in a single season, per Salt City Hoops. He's 25 years old.

Walker Kessler became a permanent fixture in the Utah Jazz's starting five on January 10. In the 25 games since then, he's averaging 11.3 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.9 blocks. He's 21.

In his 10 starts, 22-year-old Talen Horton-Tucker is averaging 16.3 points, 5.5 assists and 5.1 rebounds.

And even 22-year-old rookie Ochai Agbaji, who's been a more common inclusion in the starting lineup recently, has shown flashes of three-and-D upside.

Adding someone like, oh say, Victor Wembanyama to this core could make it pretty scary in short order.

20. New Orleans Pelicans (33-36)

Brandon Ingram Jonathan Bachman/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 19
Net Rating: +0.5

The New Orleans Pelicans' slide continued with a 1-2 week that ended with a loss to the LeBron James-less Los Angeles Lakers (another team in the play-in hunt).

And with Zion Williamson's return date still seemingly up in the air, it's starting to feel like Pelicans fans may just have to start thinking about next year.

On the season, New Orleans has a point differential around that of a 59-win team when Zion was on the floor, compared to one around that of a 34-win team without him.

Lately, we've seen a lot of the team that plays like that second number.

19. Los Angeles Lakers (34-36)

Anthony Davis and LeBron James Marcus Ingram/Getty Images

Previous Rank: 21
Net Rating: -0.3

The vibes had been about as good as they were all season for the Los Angeles Lakers prior to Wednesday's loss to the Houston Rockets.

They'd won four of their last five and were 5-3 overall during LeBron James' current absence.

Even with the loss, though, they're above .500 in this stretch. And it's pretty easy to explain away the Houston game, since Anthony Davis missed Wednesday, as well.

The Lakers are still only two games out of sixth place, but three teams are between them and that spot. And potentially conservative injury timelines for LeBron and AD may suggest the team is resigned to being in the play-in tournament.

In that case, making sure both are healthy and rested up for the potential elimination games might be smart.

18. Atlanta Hawks (34-35)

Dejounte Murray Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Previous Rank: 15
Net Rating: -0.4

The balancing act that the Atlanta Hawks have had to conduct all season between Trae Young and Dejounte Murray has been a tricky one.

And it doesn't look like the arrival of Quin Snyder was a quick fix.

Atlanta is 3-5 in Snyder's eight games, with a bottom-four defense over that stretch. And that's with the team's three supposed defensive linchpins (Murray, De'Andre Hunter and Clint Capela) available throughout.

Constructing a high-end defense may not be easy for Snyder as it was with the Utah Jazz, when he had Rudy Gobert, who helped that squad post an above-average defensive rating every year Snyder was there.

17. Oklahoma City Thunder (34-36)

Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 22
Net Rating: +1.4

The Oklahoma City Thunder closed out their week with a road loss to the Toronto Raptors, but they're 6-2 in their last eight, and it's looking more and more like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won't be the only star on the roster for long.

In addition to Josh Giddey, who has rightfully garnered plenty of attention over the last two years, rookie Jalen Williams has looked like a game-changing playmaker for over a month.

Over his last 15 appearances, Williams is averaging 19.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.4 threes while shooting 46.7 percent from deep.

16. Toronto Raptors (34-36)

Pascal Siakam Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 17
Net Rating: +0.6

All season, it's felt like the Toronto Raptors' record has been chasing their point differential. With five of their next six games at home, this might be their chance to get to .500.

Doing so will probably require Pascal Siakam to keep filling the stat sheet the way he has all season.

Well-below-average scoring efficiency leaves something to be desired (though the team's effective field-goal percentage is better when he's on the floor), but Siakam's raw production has been stellar.

After going for 25, 14 and eight in Thursday's win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, Siakam is averaging 24.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists. Only 11 players in league history have matched or exceeded all three marks over the course of a season.

15. Dallas Mavericks (35-35)

Christian Wood Photos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 13
Net Rating: +0.3

Granted, it came against the rebuilding San Antonio Spurs, but Christian Wood provided more evidence that he should be a bigger fixture of the Dallas Mavericks rotation in Wednesday's overtime win.

Even with Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving both out, Wood came off the bench to put up 28 points, 13 rebounds, three assists and two threes. When given a real opportunity, he almost always produces.

And since the Kyrie trade, he's only played 46 non-garbage-time possessions with the two superstars. At a certain point, head coach Jason Kidd has to try to play his three best players together for an extended period.

14. Minnesota Timberwolves (35-35)

Anthony Edwards Jordan Johnson/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 14
Net Rating: +0.1

After a gut-wrenching loss to the Boston Celtics on Wednesday (more on that in Boston's section), the Minnesota Timberwolves are back to .500 and clawing for the sixth seed. Of course, finishing there means Minnesota would miss the play-in tournament.

If the season ended today, the Wolves would have two chances to win a game and secure an official postseason berth.

For an organization that mortgaged much of its future to acquire Rudy Gobert this summer, being in this position has to feel like at least a bit of a disappointment.

But there's a reason for the use of the word "much," rather than "all." Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels are still on the team, and the former has looked like a superstar in stretches since the D'Angelo Russell trade.

Over his last five games, Edwards is averaging 30.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 3.4 threes.

13. Brooklyn Nets (39-31)

Spencer Dinwiddie Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Previous Rank: 16
Net Rating: +0.8

It's taken some time to get a handle on how the new-look Brooklyn Nets will look, which is why they've bounced around the rankings over the last few weeks.

What's become clear, though, is that Brooklyn has enough talent to compete, as evidenced by a 2-2 week (and a 5-3 record over the Nets' last eight).

With Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O'Neale, this roster has tons of versatility on defense.

While his three-point shot has abandoned him (he's at 29.5 percent from deep since the trade), Spencer Dinwiddie has looked comfortable in his return to the lead playmaker role. Through 15 games with Brooklyn, Dinwiddie is putting up 18.1 points and 7.8 assists.

12. Golden State Warriors (36-34)

Stephen Curry Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Previous Rank: 12
Net Rating: +0.5

The Golden State Warriors' road woes remain one of this NBA season's most perplexing trends.

On Wednesday, despite a 50-point outburst from Stephen Curry (who went 20-of-28 from the field), the Warriors lost to the Los Angeles Clippers. Curry was somehow minus-11 in the game.

And now, for the season, Golden State is 27th in road net rating, ahead of only the San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets and Detroit Pistons. They're fifth in home net rating.

11. Miami Heat (38-33)

Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Kevin Love Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Previous Rank: 11
Net Rating: -0.6

The Miami Heat had a rough stretch in mid-February and early March, but they appear to be back on track now.

After cruising past the Memphis Grizzlies, 138-119, on Wednesday, Miami is now 5-2 in its last seven. And its two stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been stellar in this stretch.

The former is averaging 26.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.6 steals in those seven games, while the latter is at 19.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.1 steals while shooting 61.6 percent from the field.

10. Los Angeles Clippers (37-33)

Kawhi Leonard Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 10
Net Rating: 0.0

The five-game losing streak they went on immediately after signing Russell Westbrook may have thrown people off the scent a bit, but the Los Angeles Clippers appear to be back on track with four straight wins.

They're within a half game of the Phoenix Suns for fourth place in the Western Conference and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

And Kawhi Leonard has looked like a championship-level alpha for over two months. Since January 8, Kawhi has only missed four games, and he's averaging 28.6 points, 3.9 assists and 2.6 threes while shooting 49.6 percent from deep in that stretch.

9. Memphis Grizzlies (41-27)

Desmond Bane Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 9
Net Rating: +3.9

We finally got what seems like the resolution of the Ja Morant situation for the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday when the league released the following statement:

Because the NBA is essentially giving Morant credit for the games he's already missed, he could be back as soon as March 20.

And all things considered, his teammates have done a pretty good job of holding things together in his absence.

There are still two more games to go, and Memphis lost the most recent on Wednesday, but 3-3 in the absence of the team's leading scorer is fine.

And with the Denver Nuggets falling apart during Ja's suspension, somehow, there's still a long shot for the Grizzlies to secure the West's top seed.

8. New York Knicks (41-30)

Immanuel Quickley Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 8
Net Rating: +2.7

Jalen Brunson (and to a lesser extent, Julius Randle) have rightfully gotten the bulk of the credit for the New York Knicks' success this season, but maybe it's time to give Immanuel Quickley his due.

After dropping a team-high 26 in Tuesday's win over the Portland Trail Blazers, Quickley is now averaging 20.1 points, 3.8 assists and 3.1 threes over his last nine games (and that stretch includes a three-point performance against the Sacramento Kings).

This isn't necessarily a recent development, either. Foot soreness for Brunson has given Quickley bigger opportunities, but he's taken advantage of the smaller ones, too.

For the entire season, when Quickley is on the floor without Brunson, he averages 20.5 points, 5.7 assists and 2.6 threes per 75 possessions.

7. Phoenix Suns (38-32)

Kevin Durant Kate Frese/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 6
Net Rating: +2.0

As it turns out, having Kevin Durant in the lineup is pretty important.

With him on the sidelines, the Phoenix Suns just went through a three-game losing streak. Their only win of the week was a squeaker against the rebuilding Orlando Magic.

Still, they don't get dinged too much. The teams they faced in the streak were the Sacramento Kings, the Chase Center version of the Golden State Warriors and the Milwaukee Bucks. Those are droppable games for anyone.

And it's impossible to ignore the championship upside this team has when everyone is healthy.

6. Sacramento Kings (42-27)

Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 7
Net Rating: +2.7

While most other Western Conference teams seem to be experiencing varying levels of disarray, the Sacramento Kings just keep on lighting that beam.

Sacramento is 10-2 in its last 12 games, with one of those losses against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the red-hot Milwaukee Bucks.

During this stretch, the Kings' top two players haven't disappointed. De'Aaron Fox is putting up 29.0 points, 5.9 assists and 2.0 steals while shooting 54.3 percent. Domantas Sabonis is going for 20.2 points, 13.8 rebounds and 8.2 assists, shooting 60.1 percent.

Some of the lower-seeded teams with high-profile stars like Kawhi Leonard or LeBron James might hope to catch the inexperience of Sacramento in a playoff series, but that could end up feeling like a "careful what you wish for" scenario.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers (44-28)

Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell Lauren Bacho/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 5
Net Rating: +5.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in fairly unusual territory for any team.

Despite being tied with the Boston Celtics for the best net rating in the NBA, they're in fourth place in the Eastern Conference, four games back of third and coming off a fairly convincing loss to the third-place Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday.

As good as Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are, matchups with the likes of Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo may serve as a reminder that bona fide MVP candidates can simply lift their teams to a level Cleveland might not be able to reach yet.

On the season, the Cavaliers are 3-4 against the Sixers and Milwaukee Bucks, two teams they might have to face to make a deep playoff run.

4. Denver Nuggets (47-23)

Nikola Jokić Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 4
Net Rating: +3.9

The Denver Nuggets are in their worst funk of the season.

After cruising past the Memphis Grizzlies on March 3, they barely beat the Toronto Raptors at home in a game that ended with some controversial calls from officials. Then they went on a four-game losing streak that included a game against the San Antonio Spurs. And on Thursday, they were neck and neck with the Detroit Pistons for most of a game in which they pulled away late.

Through all of that, they've managed to maintain a 4.5-game lead in the Western Conference standings, which might actually be the problem.

Denver has looked almost entirely checked out, particularly on defense, since the emotionally charged victory over Memphis.

If they don't shake out of that funk soon, they could get embarrassed when they return home to play the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers in back-to-back games on March 25 and 27.

3. Boston Celtics (48-22)

Jayson Tatum David Berding/Getty Images

Previous Rank: 2
Net Rating: +5.5

The Boston Celtics were on the right side of some controversy during Wednesday's road win over the Minnesota Timberwolves.

For one thing, Grant Williams blatantly stole a late jump ball.

Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla ran past half court and onto the court without receiving a technical (something officials told reporters they "did not see" in the postgame pool report).

And both Anthony Edwards and Kyle Anderson were ejected at the tail end of the game (Edwards for "directly questioning the integrity of the officiating crew," and Anderson for receiving his second technical foul).

All of that for Boston to win by two, just two days after losing to the Houston Rockets.

The amount of shakiness displayed by this team over the last few weeks has to be a bit alarming. After looking like a juggernaut for portions of this season, Boston is 4-5 in its last nine and looking nowhere near as connected defensively as it was ahead of last year's playoffs.

Still, even after this stretch, the Celtics are tied with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the best net rating in the NBA. And in the postseason, when things grind to a slower pace and switchy, positionless defenders become more important, Boston should be in better shape than most.

2. Milwaukee Bucks (50-20)

Brook Lopez Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images

Previous Rank: 1
Net Rating: +3.7

We witnessed a vivid example of how important Brook Lopez is to the Milwaukee Bucks' top-three defense Thursday when he was absent for a 139-123 loss to a sub-.500 Indiana Pacers team playing without Tyrese Haliburton.

Minus Lopez, who was out with ankle soreness, the Bucks allowed Indiana to shoot 21-of-25 at the rim and 28-of-40 in the paint.

Over the course of the season, Milwaukee has allowed 4.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when Lopez is on the floor.

1. Philadelphia 76ers (46-22)

Joel Embiid Jason Miller/Getty Images

Previous Rank: 3
Net Rating: +4.4

With less than a month left in the regular season, Joel Embiid is officially the betting favorite for MVP, per FanDuel, and his Philadelphia 76ers are absolutely rolling.

Since December 1, Philly is a league-best 34-12. And over the same stretch, Embiid is averaging 34.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 steals.

What really pushes them into the top spot, though, is their current six-game winning streak that started with a road win on March 4 over last week's No. 1 team, the Milwaukee Bucks.

Stat of the Week

James Harden Lauren Bacho/NBAE via Getty Images

Joel Embiid is the MVP candidate and two-way driving force behind the Philadelphia 76ers' surge, but James Harden deserves a lot more credit than he's currently receiving.

Not only is he averaging 21.9 points and a league-leading 10.8 assists while shooting 39.6 percent from deep, he's also been a critical part of the team having the best catch-and-shoot effective field-goal percentage in the NBA.

Philly's 59.5 there is more than a full point clear of second place. The 76ers are also first in catch-and-shoot three-point percentage at 40.2. And the bulk of those looks are created by Harden.

This season, he's eighth in the league in three-point assists per 100 possessions, third in short mid-range assists per 100 possessions and third in long mid-range assists per 100 possessions, per PBP Stats.

Sophomore of the Year

Franz Wagner Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images

The 2021 NBA draft class has a chance to be special.

Jalen Green (21.6), Franz Wagner (18.7), Josh Giddey (16.2), Evan Mobley (16.1) and reigning Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes (15.7) are all over 15 points per game in Year 2. Giddey (6.2 assists per game), Barnes (4.8), Alperen Şengün (3.9), Green (3.6) and Wagner (3.5) have all shown some playmaking chops. Mobley and Barnes have All-Defensive upside on that end.

There are several potential All-Stars in this group, which can make it tricky to pick the (totally not made up) sophomore of the year.

There are reasonable arguments for several of the candidates, but we'll go with Wagner in this space, who leads the class by a huge margin in estimated wins (the cumulative version of estimated plus-minus, one of the NBA's most trusted catch-all metrics).

As something of a point forward for a team with five players between three and six assists per game, Wagner is shooting 48.7 percent from the field and 37.2 percent from deep while posting the averages above.

When he's on the floor, Orlando has a point differential around that of a 40-win team, compared to one around that of a 21-win team without him.

   

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