There is no correct way to pick your bracket for the 2023 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament.

So just do what I always do and go with your gut.

Because my gut has spent months feasting on hours upon hours of games and data, it's theoretically better conditioned for those picks than yours is. So if you find yourself struggling with what to do in a certain matchup or you just want to straight-up copy someone's picks for a bracket pool, have at it.

And after several hours of writing about why I made these rapid-fire picks, they pretty well align with the conclusions I would've come to had I spent half an hour agonizing over each and every pick.

So follow me into the unknown, and if you find yourself winning a whole bunch of jelly beans, my DMs are open, all right? Share the wealth.

Make your picks: Play the NCAA March Madness Men's Bracket Challenge and Tournament Run.

First Four

The Picks: Fairleigh Dickinson over Texas Southern, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi over Southeast Missouri State, Mississippi State over Pittsburgh, Nevada over Arizona State

Budding Buzzer Beater: Nevada vs. Arizona State

I mean, Arizona State is only in the tournament because Desmond Cambridge Jr. canned a 60-foot buzzer-beater to knock off Arizona a few weeks ago. Nevada also can probably credit Kenan Blackshear's buzzer-beater at New Mexico for sneaking into the field. And thus far in March, Nevada has played twice and both games went to overtime.

Upset Special: FDU over Texas Southern

If this game goes to overtime, it's probably going to be one of those "This is expensive free basketball" types of games between teams that both reside in the "Louisville Range" of the KenPom rankings. But it should be a close call between an FDU defense that can't stop anything and a Texas Southern offense that can't score.

Player to Watch: Tolu Smith, Mississippi State

Smith has scored in double figures in 17 consecutive games, recording a points-rebounds double-double in 10 of those contests. Meanwhile, Pitt's defense cannot stop anything as of late. The big Bulldog should have a field day

First Round, East Regional

Budding Buzzer Beater: No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic

If for some reason you're only able to watch one first-round game, make it this one. FAU won 31 games while looking the part of a Sweet 16 team, and Memphis is even better, riding high from a big win over Houston in the AAC championship. It should be a fascinating matchup, likely to be played at a fast pace.

Upset Special: None

Believe me, I will be picking plenty of upsets throughout the course of this exercise, including several in the second round of this region. Nothing jumps out to me here, though. Providence has been a mess lately. I love Oral Roberts, but Duke is on fire. And while Tennessee is ripe for an early exit, it would've been way more tantalizing if it had been matched up with Kent State or Iona.

Player to Watch: Bryce Hopkins, Providence

This is a fun little matchup here from the selection committee, pitting Hopkins against the team that could hardly find any use for him last season. Hopkins transferred from Kentucky to Providence and became a star, but he'll probably be bringing a little extra intensity to this pairing. I still think Kentucky gets the win, but we could see Hopkins going for 30 in a loss.

First Round, South Regional

Budding Buzzer Beater: No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 Charleston

Charleston won 31 games. The Mountain West has gone 0-8 in the past three NCAA tournaments. The Aztecs find a way to win, but there's just no way they're going to blow out the Cougars. It always feels this way, but especially this year, it wouldn't be a surprise if every No. 5 vs. No. 12 game went to overtime.

Upset Special: No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Creighton

I really like this Creighton team. It could be a Final Four squad with a little bit of luck. But I also have a rule: When I'm appalled about a team receiving an at-large bid—particularly if it's an ACC team—I have to pick that team to win at least one game. Notre Dame won two games last year. Syracuse won two games in 2021 and made the Final Four in 2016. And NC State is going to go on a run this year. But it will never be enough for me to believe the Wolfpack deserved to get in.

Player to Watch: Tosan Evbuomwan, Princeton

Arizona is going to win this game with some room to spare, but Evbuomwan could at least make things interesting for a while. Between the Tigers' two Ivy League tournament wins, the point-forward from Great Britain racked up 42 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists.

First Round, Midwest Regional

Budding Buzzer Beater: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Penn State

Have you watched a Penn State game during this recent run? PSU is 6-2 in its past eight games—all decided by four points or fewer, two in overtime. Every Penn State game comes right down to the wire these days. Texas A&M recently had a string of seven straight games decided by single digits. Last-second drama is almost a guarantee here.

Upset Special: No. 13 Kent State over No. 4 Indiana

I've got the Nos. 9, 10, 12 and 13 seeds winning here. See. Told you there would be upsets. As far as this matchup goes, Trayce Jackson-Davis will probably do his stat-sheet stuffing thing for the Hoosiers, but they need freshman point guard Jalen Hood-Schifino playing well to hit their ceiling. And the last team you want to face with a freshman point guard is Kent State, whose Sincere Carry and Malique Jacobs could turn this game into a living nightmare for JHS.

Player to Watch: Kris Murray, Iowa

Auburn should win, because Iowa's apathy on defense is always a problem in March. But it should be a high-scoring affair in which Murray does everything in his power to keep the Hawkeyes from going home right away. He has scored at least 14 points in 11 of his past 12 games.

First Round, West Regional

Budding Buzzer Beater: No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Illinois

The vast majority of No. 8 vs. No. 9 games are coin-flip propositions, but this one in particular is a game where you're only fooling yourself if you think you know what's going to happen. Neither team shoots well from three, but in Nick Smith Jr. and Terrence Shannon Jr., each does have a guy who could get red hot at a moment's notice. Both of these teams have been wildly inconsistent this season, so it might go to two overtimes or it might be decided by 30 in either direction.

Upset Special: None

"Another upset-free first round? Have you ever seen the NCAA tournament?" I know. I know. And I do like VCU's chances of upsetting Saint Mary's in what should be a race to 50 points. But I went with my gut, and it wasn't feeling too topsy-turvy early on in the West Region. (Settle in, though.)

Player to Watch: Drew Pember, UNC-Asheville

Again, we expect the No. 2 seed from the Pac-12 to advance with minimal trouble. But with Adem Bona's status (shoulder) up in the air for UCLA, Pember could make things interesting. This 6'11" stretch 5 does it all, including drawing a ton of fouls. And if UCLA's frontcourt is shorthanded, Pember's ability to draw contact could be a real X-factor.

Second Round, East Regional

Budding Buzzer Beater: No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 6 Kentucky

Something about this game just screams "instant classic" to me. Might be my sleep-deprived brain seeing Kansas State and thinking Wichita State and harkening back to that incredible matchup in the 2014 tournament. More likely, it's just the prospect of watching Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson take on Cason Wallace and Oscar Tshiebwe. Kansas State isn't a blue blood by any means, but this should be a heavyweight fight.

Upset Special: No. 8 Memphis over No. 1 Purdue

I've got to have at least one No. 1 or No. 2 seed go down before the Sweet 16. Typically two or three of them bite the dust by the end of the second round, and this is the obvious spot for one of those upset picks. Purdue's freshmen guards have really struggled to keep their composure against ball pressure lately, and Memphis will be bringing pretty much non-stop ball pressure.

Player to Watch: Tyler Kolek, Marquette

Kolek's full-season numbers are great, but he has been particularly potent since mid-January, being named the KenPom game MVP in 11 of his past 15 contests. I can't remember the last time someone was a breakout star in November and December, and then a further breakout star over the latter half of the season, but he's going to be a massive problem for a Michigan State team that hasn't had great backcourt defense in about a decade.

Second Round, South Regional

Budding Buzzer Beater: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 9 West Virginia

I wanted to pick the upset here, but I also have a bracket-picking rule of never painting myself into a corner where I'm stuck with picking an Elite Eight team who I'm not even confident will survive the first round. And in the top half of a region with Virginia and San Diego State, Alabama certainly should reach the regional final. But West Virginia is no joke, and I expect the Mountaineers to dial up the pressure for a little vintage "Press Virginia" against a Crimson Tide team that has turnover issues.

Upset Special: No. 11 NC State over No. 3 Baylor

Picking NC State to upset Creighton was a principle matter. This one is more of a matchup decision. Baylor has had a seasonlong issue with trying to stop opponents from scoring in the paint, and NC State has a very large force in DJ Burns who could take this game over—so long as he doesn't get into foul trouble first. And while Baylor's backcourt trio (Adam Flagler, Keyonte George and LJ Cryer) is special, NC State has one heck of a pair of guards of its own in Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner.

Player to Watch: Reece Beekman, Virginia

If Saint Mary's-VCU is a race to 50, Virginia-San Diego State could be a race to 40, making this a game where the ACC Defensive Player of the Year could make or break things for the Cavaliers. He and Kihei Clark are both indispensable for UVA, but Beekman is the one best equipped to keep the Aztecs from finding any sort of offensive rhythm.

Second Round, Midwest Regional

Budding Buzzer Beater: No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 6 Iowa State

Iowa State was underseeded. Xavier might have been overseeded. These are evenly matched teams who combined for 18 Quad 1 wins during the season. And it will be interesting to watch the unstoppable force/immovable object showdown between Xavier's offense and Iowa State's defense.

Upset Special: No. 13 Kent State over No. 12 Drake

This one will determine which team enters the second weekend as the wild card in this region. A December win over Mississippi State is undeniable evidence that Drake can hold its own against an oppressive defense. But I just love this Golden Flashes team and can't wait for them to set up a rematch of that 49-44 rock fight against Houston in November.

Player to Watch: Jalen Pickett, Penn State

Texas usually has a solid defense, but it has been torn to pieces on a few occasions. And if the Longhorns aren't prepared to deal with Pickett's old-man game and the umbrella of three-point shooters with which he is surrounded when he backs his way into the paint, a major upset could be in store. Pickett averaged 16.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists during PSU's Big Ten tournament run, and he usually doles out more dimes than that.

Second Round, West Regional

Budding Buzzer Beater: No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 7 Northwestern

This isn't supposed to be a good game. UCLA is No. 2 on KenPom, while Northwestern is No. 42. On a neutral court against No. 41 Oregon this past Friday, the Bruins won by 19. But I'm worried about UCLA with Jaylen Clark out and Adem Bona's availability to be determined. Everyone mentions Clark's impact on defense, but he was also a major asset on offense at 13 points per game. There's no question the Bruins are more prone to an upset, and there's also no question that Northwestern's Boo Buie and Chase Audige won't be afraid of this moment.

Upset Special: No. 6 TCU over No. 3 Gonzaga

Guard play was a major problem for Gonzaga early in the year, and scoring at will against the WCC is hardly convincing evidence that the Zags have fixed that Achilles' heel. In the purple corner, TCU's ball pressure has caused problems even for generally sure-handed teams. I'm hoping with this pick, though, that big man Eddie Lampkin Jr. (left the team for personal reasons before the Big 12 tournament) will be back. Without him, slowing down Drew Timme might not be feasible.

Player to Watch: Aidan Mahaney, Saint Mary's

Huge No. 4 vs. No. 5 game (provided both teams survive the first round). Either UConn or Saint Mary's could go on to upset Kansas and reach the Final Four. If it's going to be the Gaels, their freshman shooting guard will need to bounce back from a bit of a rough finish. In the middle of the season, he was a regular threat to score 20 and just hit dagger after dagger.

Sweet 16 and Elite 8, East Regional

No. 5 Duke over No. 8 Memphis

Memphis is hot, but Duke is hotter. Very intriguing game between one of the oldest rosters ever assembled (Memphis) and a Duke team that relies heavily upon five freshmen. But while Memphis is older, Duke is much taller and should be able to both stifle Deandre Williams and capitalize on a Memphis defense that allows way too many second chances.

No. 6 Kentucky over No. 2 Marquette

Did someone say offensive rebounds? Marquette's biggest weakness by far is rebounding, and that will make for an absolutely miserable night against Oscar Tshiebwe and the Kentucky Wildcats. Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones may well destroy Kentucky's backcourt enough to make up for that disparity on the glass, but I've got the Wildcats getting the job done and setting up an all-timer.

No. 5 Duke over No. 6 Kentucky

Duke. Kentucky. Madison Square Garden. Are we SURE we can't get Gus Johnson on a one-day contract to call this game? If this matchup comes together, Duke's defense (and having the size to at least somewhat neutralize Tshiebwe) should be the difference. The Blue Devils have held nine of their past 10 opponents under 70 points, and that is lethal with the way this offense has been clicking lately.

Sweet 16 and Elite 8, South Regional

No. 1 Alabama over No. 4 Virginia

It's the old tortoise and the hare debate. Alabama plays at a break-neck pace, while Virginia lives at a break-momentum tempo. The Crimson Tide have struggled in those slower games against the likes of Mississippi State, Tennessee and South Carolina. However, I just have not seen anything from Virginia since late November to suggest that it is capable of taking down one of the five best teams in the country.

No. 2 Arizona over No. 11 NC State

The magical run comes to an end, if only because NC State has yet to show the ability to string together three consecutive quality performances. But it's also just not a great matchup. The Wolfpack could exploit a weak Baylor frontcourt in the second round, but there is absolutely nothing weak about Arizona's combo of Ažuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo. There's usually at least one Sweet 16 game that gets out of hand in a hurry, and this is the most likely candidate.

No. 2 Arizona over No. 1 Alabama

If we get each team at its peak, this could be the game of the tournament. Both teams love to run the floor for quick offense, and both teams felt like the clear best team in the country at one point or another in the past four months. But we saw in Gonzaga's 100-90 win over Alabama that the Tide can be beaten—and beaten soundly—in this type of game. Trying to beat Arizona at its own game is a fool's errand. I don't know what the line would be, but bet the over.

Sweet 16 and Elite 8, Midwest Regional

No. 1 Houston over No. 13 Kent State

As previously mentioned, this would be a rematch of a 49-44 game earlier this season. I've got to believe the Cougars would be better prepared this time around, though. Kent State seemed to catch Houston off guard, jumping out to an early 10-point lead before refusing to just respect Houston's greatness and go away. With Houston's full attention, things should go differently this time around.

No. 2 Texas over No. 3 Xavier

This is maybe the toughest call of the entire bracket, and one I would have agonized over more if I wasn't already committed to picking Houston to beat the winner anyway. When Xavier's offense is humming, best of luck to the competition. But there have been too-frequent power outages lately, and the Musketeers have been held to 68 points or fewer in five of their past 13 games (all losses). Xavier is not built to win low-scoring affairs, but Texas can battle in any type of game. Hook 'em.

No. 1 Houston over No. 2 Texas

It's a shame we couldn't save this for the Final Four in Houston. New Orleans was rocking last year for a Kansas-UNC-Duke-Villanova Final Four, but what an environment this would be in Texas. But I digress. As far as the matchup is concerned, it doesn't look great for the Longhorns. They have a trio of capable shooters, but three-point shooting isn't this team's strength, which is what it takes to break 60 points against the Cougars. Houston should also be able to control the game on the glass to some extent.

Sweet 16 and Elite 8, West Regional

No. 4 Connecticut over No. 1 Kansas

Did you know that as far as KenPom is concerned, this wouldn't even be an upset? Kansas stockpiled a ridiculous number of wins and simply had to be a No. 1 seed, but the Huskies might be the better team. They both went through rough patches in January. It just took Connecticut a bit longer to come out of its funk. But the team that entered the 2023 portion of the season as the favorite to win it all has re-emerged and will win this potential instant classic.

No. 6 TCU over No. 2 UCLA

As previously mentioned when discussing the TCU-Gonzaga matchup, TCU is not a team you want to face with questions in the backcourt. It's also not a team you want to face with minimal depth, because going up against the Horned Frogs is like trying to run a marathon while boxing. UCLA can also throw some weight around in a physical game, but I believe this is where playing without Jaylen Clark (and possibly Adem Bona) catches up with the Bruins.

No. 4 Connecticut over No. 6 TCU

Connecticut vs. Jamie Dixon in Las Vegas? Sure, I'd watch the heck out of that. TCU would definitely keep things interesting with turnovers, but depth and physicality are just fine by Connecticut. And the Huskies can make up for a potential minus-10 turnover margin with a potential 20 offensive rebounds.

(Hey, remember when the East and West Region had no first-round upsets, but now we ended up without a top-three seed in either regional final while the Midwest and South turned into a pair of No. 1 vs. No. 2 Elite Eight games? Funny how that works out.)

Final Four

South No. 2 Arizona over East No. 5 Duke

Could we interest you in a rematch of the 2001 national championship?

Arizona fans would probably rather not travel down that portion of Memory Lane, but 2001 is the last time the Wildcats made it to a Final Four, so there's that. And this time around, Arizona would be equipped to take Duke down.

Some amazing individual matchups here.

Ažuolas Tubelis vs. Kyle Filipowski.

Oumar Ballo vs. Dereck Lively II.

Kerr Kriisa vs. all of the Duke fans who make the trip to Houston.

But in the end, Arizona just has more offensive firepower.

Maybe the Blue Devils manage to play the game at their pace, keeping Arizona from getting runouts while getting major contributions in the scorebook from Tyrese Proctor and Dariq Whitehead. But speeding up freshmen in a Final Four environment sounds more doable than slowing down a freight train. Arizona has revenge 22 years in the making.

Midwest No. 1 Houston over West No. 4 Connecticut

No NCAA tournament rematches to report here, but remember pre-pandemic life when these teams were AAC foes for a few years?

They never played a game anything close to this, though.

Connecticut would have a good chance at winning this game. The Huskies have the perimeter shooting, they could take advantage of Houston's average defensive rebounding and their defense is plenty good enough to help Houston go on one of those cold spells that have been an issue for the Cougars.

But they would need to keep turnovers under control in what is effectively a road game in Houston, which has been a struggle. Connecticut had 16 giveaways in its loss at Marquette, 18 in its loss at Seton Hall and 21 in a home loss to St. John's. And if Jordan Hawkins can't handle Houston's pressure, this could get a bit out of hand in favor of the Cougars.

National Championship Game

Yet another tournament rematch Arizona fans would rather forget, and you don't need to go back two decades for this one. A brutally under-seeded No. 5 Houston toppled No. 1 Arizona in the Sweet 16 last March, putting the clamps on an Arizona offense that had been scoring almost at will for months.

Will it be more of the same in the title game, or is it Arizona's turn to pull off a bit of an upset?

Truthfully, I'm probably putting too much stock in the "Final Four is in Houston" thing. It's in the gigantic NRG Stadium, and it's not exactly a far trek for an Arizona fanbase that would travel anywhere. There probably won't even be a noticeable difference in the decibel rating of the respective rooting sections.

But it has got to be some sort of advantage for Houston, and if it helps the Cougars set the tone early, Arizona might have a hard time recovering, similar to when Baylor just ran away from Gonzaga in the blink of an eye in the title game two years ago.

There aren't many teams built to handle Arizona's two-bigs lineup, but Houston has four legitimate frontcourt weapons it can deploy in shifts. From there, Marcus Sasser does his thing, and the Cougars win the first national championship in program history.

No. 1 Houston over No. 2 Arizona