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NBA Playoff Bracket Predictions with 1 Month to Go

Greg Swartz

There's officially less than a month before the 2022-23 NBA regular season comes to a close, with lots to be sorted out before the playoffs officially kick off.

In this latest installment of bracket predictions, we finally have a new No. 1 seed at the top of the East, while another team jumps into the top eight seeds overall.

In the West, how much will absences from Kevin Durant and Ja Morant affect the Phoenix Suns' and Memphis Grizzlies' chances at the No. 2 seed? Can the new-look Dallas Mavericks, just 4-8 since the trade deadline, even avoid the lottery?

With just a few short weeks left, here's how the 2023 NBA playoff brackets predict to shake out.

Note: All strength of schedule and remaining strength of schedule stats are via Basketball Reference. Player stats accurate as of March 11.

East: (4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) New York Knicks

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Cleveland Cavaliers

Current Record/Seed: 42-27, 4th in East

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 9th in East

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 15th in East

The Cavs have remained incredibly consistent, staying at No. 4 in every version of our predictions thus far.

While the NBA's easiest remaining schedule gives them an outside shot at catching the Philadelphia 76ers for No. 3 (currently 3.5 games behind), Cleveland's defense has slipped as of late and an inconsistent bench hasn't provided much of a boost, either.

A three-game cushion ahead of the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets shouldn't have any panic buttons pushed, either, as the Cavs seemed destined to stay in the fourth seed and get home-court advantage in the first round.

Seeing Donovan Mitchell and Co. take on his hometown team in the New York Knicks would be just fine with us, as this would be a series that could easily go seven games.

New York Knicks

Current Record/Seed: 39-30, 6th in East

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 3rd in East

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 13th in East

The nine-game win streak that had the Knicks challenging for the No. 4 seed is now gone, although New York is in prime position to move up from its current sixth spot in the East.

Only the Cavs and Boston Celtics have easier remaining schedules, which is good news considering Jalen Brunson has been in and out of the lineup with a sore left foot.

Josh Hart has been a terrific addition to the rotation, averaging 10.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.2 steals and shooting a whopping 61.3 percent overall and 60.0 percent from three. The Knicks are destroying opponents with a net rating of plus-37.4 (in 279 total possessions, per Cleaning the Glass) with both Brunson and Hart on the floor.

While neither of these teams are considered among the powerhouses in the conference, this could be the best overall series of the East's first round.

East: (3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Brooklyn Nets

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Philadelphia 76ers

Current Record/Seed: 44-22, 3rd in East

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 15th in East

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 2nd in East

Philly remains in its usual spot, unlikely to land a top-two seed in the East thanks to the conference's second-hardest-remaining schedule but also in no real danger of falling with a 3.5-game lead on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Joel Embiid is going to continue racking up monster games to keep his MVP candidacy alive, while James Harden is up to 24.5 points, 12.8 assists and 7.8 rebounds on 43.3 percent shooting from deep over his last four games.

Only the Milwaukee Bucks (11) have won more games since the trade deadline than the Sixers (10), who are as deep and as talented as any team in the conference.

With the new-look Nets fighting to simply stay in the playoff picture, this would be a quick first-round series.

Brooklyn Nets

Current Record/Seed: 38-29, 5th in East

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 8th in East

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 5th in East

It's a good thing Brooklyn had built up a strong record before trading Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving away, as the Nets are just 6-7 overall with a minus-3.6 net rating (23rd overall) since the deadline.

Brooklyn still holds a three-game lead on the Miami Heat to stay in the top-six seeds and get a guaranteed playoff spot, and it should be thankful that none of the play-in teams have played better than .500 basketball as of late.

Still, this would be a nightmare of a first-round matchup for the Nets, who are 0-3 against Philly this season. Nic Claxton is a terrific defender, but his 215-pound frame is no match against Joel Embiid over the course of a series.

Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie and Co. will win enough games between now and April 9 to keep Brooklyn in the top-six spots, even if this projects to be one of the weakest playoffs teams in either conference.

East: (2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Miami Heat

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Boston Celtics

Current Record/Seed: 47-21, 2nd in East

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 13th in East

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 14th in East

After doing battle with the Miami Heat in two of the past three Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics would have significantly higher seeding here in Round 3 of their postseason meetings.

A good-but-not-great 8-5 record since the trade deadline combined with a hot Milwaukee Bucks team has the Celtics falling to the second seed here, although there's still just 1.5 games separating Boston from the top seed in the East.

A strained hamstring has caused starting center Robert Williams III to miss four games and counting, and the defensive anchor has suited up just 28 times all season while missing the first few months because of knee surgery.

His (hopefully) imminent return will be needed to help give Boston a chance at reclaiming the No. 1 seed.

Miami Heat

Current Record/Seed: 36-33, 7th in East

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 2nd in East

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 10th in East

Miami has been unable to jump a shaky Brooklyn Nets team in the standings thank to its own inconsistent play, with a net rating (minus-5.1) that ranks just 25th in the NBA since the trade deadline.

The Kevin Love pickup hasn't paid dividends yet, as the 34-year-old is no longer a starter in the NBA despite the fact that Miami keeps using him as one. Love has made just nine of his first 39 three-pointers (23.1 percent), a number that will need to go up to justify his poor defense.

Kyle Lowry is back after missing 15 games because of knee soreness and was immediately asked to play 36 minutes off the bench in a loss to the Orlando Magic. Lowry and Love can still be playoff contributors, but not with this kind of consistent workload.

Still, betting on Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Co. to win a play-in game at home against the Atlanta Hawks, Toronto Raptors, Chicago Balls or whoever else ends up at No. 8 seems like a safe wager.

East: (1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (8) Atlanta Hawks

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Milwaukee Bucks

Current Record/Seed: 48-19, 1st in East

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 14th in East

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 9th in East

Fear the Deer, indeed.

Milwaukee has been the hottest team since the trade deadline, going 11-2 with a league-high plus-8.4 net rating.

Even with teams like the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers within striking distance, the Bucks have been the best team in all of basketball for weeks now.

Even a minor wrist injury to Giannis Antetokounmpo hasn't slowed Milwaukee down, as the Bucks are 9-6 without him this year, posting a positive net rating (plus-0.8) when the two-time MVP is off the floor this season.

The Bucks are deep, experienced and have been far better defensively as of late. Khris Middleton is playing his best basketball of the season (16.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.0 steals over his last 11 games), while Joe Ingles is shooting 58.8 percent from three over his last seven contests.

The Atlanta Hawks, after fighting through the play-in tournament just to be here, would be lucky to win a single game in this series.

Atlanta Hawks

Current Record/Seed: 34-34, 8th in East

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 12th in East

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 8th in East

The Hawks are just 3-4 since Quin Snyder took over as head coach, possessing an offense that ranks in the NBA's top five with a defense that ranks in the bottom five as well.

This may be enough to come away with the No. 8 seed in the East, but not much else.

Jrue Holiday and Jevon Carter would give even Trae Young and Dejounte Murray fits in a potential series, and no one on this roster is slowing down Giannis Antetokounmpo.

This is a Hawks team that still needs to make some major defensive upgrades around Trae Young and will only have Murray under contract for one more season. A series win here would be a huge lift for the franchise, although that's about as likely as Young winning a future DPOY award.

West: (4) Phoenix Suns vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers

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Phoenix Suns

Current Record/Seed: 37-30, 4th in West

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 9th in West

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 6th in West

Despite losing Kevin Durant for potentially the rest of the regular season because of an ankle injury suffered during warm-ups of his first home game, this is still a really good Suns team that can keep home-court advantage in the first round.

Chris Paul has decided to stop aging once again and is averaging 14.3 points, 10.1 assists and 1.8 steals over his last 20 games, while Deandre Ayton is putting up a 20-10 double-double (20.1 points, 11.2 rebounds, 1.0 blocks) in his last 19 as well.

With Devin Booker more than capable of being the offensive focal point while Durant recovers, not even a tricky end-of-the-season schedule can keep the Suns out of the top-four spots.

In a potential opening-round series that contains plenty of star power, Phoenix may need Durant to avoid an early exit, however.

Los Angeles Clippers

Current Record/Seed: 36-33, 5th in West

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 13th in West

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 4th in West

After dropping their first five games in the Russell Westbrook era, the Clippers have now won three straight and seem to be adjusting to their new-look roster, one that also features Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland and Mason Plumlee.

The starting lineup of Westbrook, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris Sr. and Ivica Zubac has a net rating of plus-13.8 (80th percentile in 130 total possessions, per Cleaning the Glass), a good early sign for Los Angeles.

Although just two games away from catching the Suns, the Clippers should be more concerned with simply staying at No. 5, especially since there are a whopping seven teams sitting three games or less behind them.

If healthy, this is an extremely talented, experienced and dangerous playoff team, one that the Suns will need Kevin Durant to beat.

West: (3) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (6) Golden State Warriors

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Memphis Grizzlies

Current Record/Seed: 40-26, 3rd in West

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 8th in West

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 14th in West

The Grizzlies face a multitude of challenges the rest of the season, with Ja Morant currently away from the team, Steven Adams weeks away from returning from a sprained knee and Brandon Clarke possibly missing the next calendar year with a torn Achilles.

A team that once looked capable of winning the No. 1 seed will now have to settle for No. 3 and a first-round matchup with a team it should want to avoid.

Thankfully, Tyus Jones is arguably the best backup point guard in the NBA and is averaging 18.7 points, 8.1 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 2.4 steals and shooting 45.3 percent from three in his 13 starts this season. Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Dillon Brooks are all capable of picking up extra shots in Morant's absence as well.

With the second-easiest schedule of any team in the West, Memphis is in no danger of falling past the three seed.

Golden State Warriors

Current Record/Seed: 35-33, 6th in West

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 7th in West

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 10th in West

Draymond Green may not be worried about games played in March, but the rest of the Warriors need to start treating the final few weeks with a little more urgency.

Golden State still can't win on the road (7-26) and had to go to overtime to beat a Milwaukee Bucks team that was missing Giannis Antetokounmpo to a wrist injury. This was after giving up 131 points to a Grizzlies team that was missing Ja Morant, Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke.

Andrew Wiggins is still out because of a personal issue, with the Warriors cycling through 23 different starting lineups this season.

We're still willing to bet Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Green, Jordan Poole and Co. can stay in the top-six spots, but this doesn't resemble anything close to the team that won the title last year.

West: (2) Sacramento Kings vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers

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Sacramento Kings

Current Record/Seed: 40-26, 2nd in West

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 15th in West

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 8th in West

Given the amount of issues surrounding the Memphis Grizzlies, these Kings should end up with the No. 2 seed overall, a huge swing from their 12th-place finish a year ago.

Sacramento has the No. 1 offense this season, one that's only gotten better since the trade deadline (124.2 rating). While stopping teams continues to be an issue, the Kings have the firepower to outscore anybody, anywhere.

Playing against the Los Angeles Lakers would be a huge clash of styles, as L.A. possesses the No. 1-ranked defense since the deadline.

The Kings would have to count on their continuity, chemistry and superior scoring attack to take down a Lakers team that's far better than the one that began the season.

Los Angeles Lakers

Current Record/Seed: 33-34, 9th in West

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 5th in West

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 11th in West

Even with LeBron James missing time with a foot injury, the Lakers have won three in a row and are now 7-3 over the last 10 games.

While climbing as high as the No. 5 seed isn't out of the question, not having James likely means having to go through the play-in tournament to reach the postseason.

Anthony Davis has carried the load with James out (28.8 points, 13.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 3.0 bocks, 56.4 percent shooting over his last six games), while D'Angelo Russell's 28 points and nine assists helped take down the Toronto Raptors recently.

This is a Lakers team with real depth now. Should they make the playoffs and get a healthy James back, the Kings could turn into the underdogs in the series despite being five seeds ahead.

West: (1) Denver Nuggets vs. (8) Dallas Mavericks

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Denver Nuggets

Current Record/Seed: 46-22, 1st in West

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 14th in West

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 7th in West

Denver has stumbled as of late and has some real defensive concerns, but a five-game cushion has the Nuggets essentially locked in as the No. 1 seed in the West.

Nikola Jokić still needs a strong end to the season to hold off Joel Embiid for his third straight MVP, although he's scored less than 20 points in five of his past eight games.

This isn't an ideal matchup for Denver, either, as Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving will attack Jokić in the pick-and-roll all series long.

Denver has enjoyed the second-easiest schedule in the NBA to this point and should be able to (somewhat) coast the rest of the way.

Dallas Mavericks

Current Record/Seed: 34-34, 8th in West

Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 6th in West

Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 13th in West

The Mavs represent a handful of teams that can make life miserable for the higher seeds, possessing two of the best isolation scorers in the NBA.

Unfortunately, their ability to even reach the postseason is in doubt, especially with Dončić currently nursing a left thigh strain.

Dallas is just 4-8 since the trade deadline but has proved to be quite good when its two stars are actually on the court together (plus-9.2 net rating in 472 total possessions, per Cleaning the Glass).

Don't expect the Mavs to jump the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors to grab a top-six seed, but Dončić and Irving won't let Dallas get knocked out of the play-in, either.

   

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