Entrenched stardom at the NBA level comes with a tremendous amount of pressure. The standard to which you're held is brutal, sometimes even unfair, but it's part of the job description.
Basically, with household-name recognition comes unrelenting, unending expectations. You cannot fall off—not even a little bit, not even for a season, not even because you're getting older—without the entire world noticing.
That is how we've arrived here, more than three-quarters of the way through the season, with our spotlight fixated on really good to great players who have, for the most part, failed to live up to reputation and expectation.
This exercise is not meant to unnecessarily pile on, star-shame or sadistically denigrate. If anything, it is a back-handed compliment. These players land here because they're supposed to better.
Disappointing seasons fueled predominantly by a lack of availability will not be included. Injuries—and even load management—are too far outside a player's control. Rankings, meanwhile, are not meant to reflect who is having the worst year of the bunch. They are instead a snapshot of who has failed to meet individual expectations the most.
5. Kyle Lowry, Miami Heat
Left knee issues have dogged Kyle Lowry all season, including right now. He has appeared in just eight games since Jan. 8. Weighted in tandem with his age (36 going on 37), on top of the knowledge the Miami Heat never acquired him to be a bold-text star, he shouldn't come anywhere near sniffing the top of this list.
He can't be excluded, either. He is supposed to be better than this.
His stardom has always stood on unique footing, rooted more in its scalability and functional granularity than absurd counting stats and efficiency. He is the leading man you pair with other leading men who cast larger shadows and are, oftentimes, less malleable.
This player still bleeds through on defense. Lowry remains someone who pursues and pesters, an irritant with little regard for bodily harm—his own and that of his opponents. But his star is dimming on offense, as both plug-and-play device and chief operator.
Lowry has connected on just 33.3 percent of his triples, including just 30.4 percent of his treys in which a defender is six or more feet away, and doesn't have the same jet fuel behind his off-the-bounce jumper. He can still make things happen when pressuring defenses, as he's shooting over 51 percent and committing turnovers on just 4.4 percent of his drives. He also seems more hesitant to finish out those situations by his own hand.
Stealing minutes with him as the primary pilot is officially a no-go. Miami's offense has wanted for punch pretty much all season, but it craters whenever Lowry plays sans Jimmy Butler.
Say what you want about age and availability dampening his performance. Even the Heat are taken aback by the starkness of Lowry's decline. They appeared very open to moving him—and the final year and $29.7 million left on his contract—at the trade deadline.
4. Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
Props to Trae Young for not finishing higher on this ladder. Seriously.
Yes, his counting stats are virtually unmoved relative to last season. He's averaging 27.1 points and 10.1 assists now compared to 28.1 and 9.7, respectively, in 2021-22. And his efficiency has climbed after plummeting into the gutter earlier this year. He's downing over 49 percent of his twos and 37-plus percent of his threes since the middle of December.
Still, the aggregate picture matters. And in the aggregate, Young has buried fewer than 33 percent of his triples and seen his conversion rate around the basket dip from already-shaky levels. The floater retains its sparkle, but his increased reliance on mid-range jumpers, despite hitting them with above-average efficiency, is uncomfortable and contributes to an inexcusably archaic Atlanta Hawks shot profile.
Young's fit with Dejounte Murray is not an unmitigated disaster—or even a disaster at all. The Hawks are comfortably winning the minutes they play, with an offensive rating inside the 80th percentile. But those returns do not equate to synergy. Young and Murray lead what feels like separate existences.
To what end Young is responsible remains to be seen. Catch-and-shoot looks continue to account for a negligible amount of his usage, and he's not pinballing around away from the rock. At least some of that, if not most of it, falls on the recently dismissed Nate McMillan. He has never been known as the most inventive head coach. But there is enough, shall we say, awkward reporting on the relationship between Young and McMillan that we have assume both bear responsibility.
Quin Snyder's arrival will go a long way toward determining whether this inclusion is a misread of the situation. It's nevertheless disappointing that any rumblings are trickling out at all.
Strike the off-court questions from the record, and you're still left with concerns. The Hawks remain a net negative, albeit slightly less so, when Young plays independent of Murray. And his defensive energy doesn't so much wax and wane as exist in a permanent state of nonexistence.
By universal measure, Young isn't having a bad season. But the variance in his performance is unsettling for someone held to no less than All-NBA standards.
3. Fred VanVleet, Toronto Raptors
Fred VanVleet's disappointment is anchored almost solely by his outside shooting. The rest of his game remains largely intact.
He ranks in the 74th percentile of pick-and-roll scoring efficiency while turning the ball over on a smaller share of those possessions (10.4 percent) than last year (14 percent), and his defensive stands continue to belie his 6'1" stature. He has also looked like more of a live-wire playmaker since the arrival of Jakob Poeltl, a big who can actually roll to the rim.
The outside shooting, though, has yet to really come around. Small bursts of high efficiency are swiftly derailed by a 2-of-7 or worse clip from beyond the arc.
VanVleet drilled 37.9 percent of his threes last season and was at 38.2 percent from deep for his career entering this year. He is comfortably under 34 percent from behind the rainbow in 2022-23.
This drop-off comes where FVV has historically thrived most: catch-and-shoot threes. He is hitting under 35 percent of his spot-up triples, down from 43.3 percent last year and 38.1 percent in 2020-21.
Depending on the lens through which you view it, this is either mega troubling or not at all relevant.
Should we be concerned he's shooting like this, for this long, in a contract year (player option)? Or is the devolution of a strength so obviously temporary it should be written off as a mere blip? He is swishing just 33.6 percent of his treys in which defenders are between four and six feet away, down from 40.4 percent last year. Surely this isn't his new normal. He might even be on the relative climb. His clip on catch-and-shoot threes sits at 35.6 percent over his past 15 games.
Longer-term implications aren't the focus here. VanVleet has underachieved so far, and in this exact moment, the decline of his most bankable and marketable offensive skill is absolutely worth some consternation.
2. Ben Simmons, Brooklyn Nets
The fall of Ben Simmons is not something to castigate in jest. It is genuinely, unequivocally depressing.
This is a three-time All-Star, in his age-26 season, not yet three years removed from a deserving All-NBA selection. You don't rack up those accolades by accident. Simmons was a star—imperfect, sure, but a star all the same.
That emphasis on "was" explains why he doesn't register as this season's biggest disappointment. He didn't play at all last year while focusing on his mental health—a status dispute with the Philadelphia 76ers—and a back injury. Expectations cratered for him between the 2021 playoffs and this season.
Those diminished standards are a mixed bag. Absence has a way of fomenting forgetfulness. Entirely displacing him from a star's trajectory before this year was a disservice to his previous body of work. It also turned out to be correct.
Simmons has once again battled injuries, including a left knee issue that has sidelined him since the All-Star break. But his play when available has been far from inspiring.
Any semblance of offensive aggression is gone. During what would be his final season suiting up for the Sixers, Simmons averaged 11.3 drives and 11.2 field-goal attempts per 36 minutes. That volume has plunged to has plunged to 4.8 and 7.2, respectively.
Joining forces with two higher-usage stars does not explain away this nosedive, which features a staggering implosion of free-throw attempts. Simmons did not ratchet it up much when Kyrie Irving and/or Kevin Durant was missing, and their exits did nothing to gas up the thrust with which he plays.
If anything, things are getting worse. Brooklyn Nets head coach Jacque Vaughn moved Simmons to the bench after the trade deadline and has been pretty candid about the challenges he poses as an offensive non-factor. His minutes reflect as much.
Many were already betting against Simmons' stardom having a second act. But his credentials warranted some iota of hope. They don't anymore.
1. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves
Rudy Gobert is not having a terrible season. The Minnesota Timberwolves have a top-shelf defensive rating when he's on the court, and he continues to be a viable, oft-devastating, threat out of the pick-and-roll.
And yet, "not having a terrible season" isn't the bar to which a three-time Defensive Player of the Year and four-time All-NBAer making over $38 million should be held. He most certainly has not been worth what the Timberwolves gave up to get him: Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Leandro Bolmaro, Walker Kessler, three unprotected firsts (2023, 2025, 2027), a top-five-protected first (2029) and an unprotected swap (2026).
Minnesota treated Gobert like its missing piece, the player who would vault it into the title-contender ranks. The front office, led by new team president of basketball operations Tim Connelly, grossly miscalculated the Wolves' proximity to championship territory. That is not on Gobert. That also doesn't mean he's in the clear.
Traces of decline are peppered throughout Gobert's game. Opponents are shooting 57.5 percent against him at the rim—a solid mark to allow that also ranks as the worst of his career. Gobert's defensive rebounding rate, while solid overall, is at its lowest since 2017-18. His block rate is at a personal rock bottom.
Greater worries lie at the offensive end. The Timberwolves' half-court attack is worlds better without Gobert, and they were absolutely dreadful in the stints he logged with Karl-Anthony Towns, averaging just 107.9 points per 100 possessions (eighth percentile).
Unfamiliar surroundings can breed awkwardness. But Gobert has spent most of this season playing independent of Towns, and Minnesota has remade some of the roster explicitly to maximize its French behemoth.
Believe what you will about the Timberwolves' desire to pay D'Angelo Russell in free agency this summer. He was playing out the most efficient stretch of his career entering the trade deadline. You don't flip him, at age 27, for a 35-year-old Mike Conley just to get something for his potential departure. You make that trade because Conley has a better feel for playing beside Gobert (and because he's potentially more of an offensive connector away from the ball).
Once more, with feeling: This isn't all on Gobert. The Timberwolves are to blame more than anyone. They overestimated themselves while misjudging how difficult it would be to maximize Gobert, both with and without Towns. But Gobert has lacked a certain oomph this year, and his complicated scalability is definitely an indictment of the stardom so widely debated during his reign in Utah.
All at once, he's failing to meet the lofty bounty Minnesota placed upon his value and evoking questions about the specificity of his skill set and whether what he does best is still impactful enough to keep him among the league's elite.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Thursday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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