The most important moment of the 2022-23 men's college basketball season is about to arrive.

While high-major programs fight for at-large bids to March Madness, hundreds of teams will vie for coveted automatic berths—which only come by winning a conference tournament.

Sure, we already know Alabama and Houston will be among the top seeds of the NCAA tournament. But we're wondering if thriving mid-majors Chattanooga, Kent State, Oral Roberts and Eastern Washington can continue their fantastic seasons into the Big Dance.

Or, will heartbreak happen at the last second?

The Atlantic Sun will be first to tip off its conference tournament Monday, and the Big Ten and SEC will headline the leagues that wrap up their postseason brackets March 12.

All data is accurate as of Wednesday, Feb. 22.

Mid-Majors, Part I

America East: Vermont Catamounts

Can they finally make it two straight? Over the last decade, the Catamounts have dropped only 22 conference games. Vermont, though, hasn't appeared in back-to-back NCAA tournaments during that stretch—with an asterisk for 2019-20. Nevertheless, the program is again the class of the AEC with a senior-heavy roster that relies on a slow tempo, lots of three-pointers and strong defensive rebounding.

Atlantic Sun: Liberty Flames

Similarly, the last half-decade in the ASUN has largely belonged to Liberty. Plus, the Flames play a comparable slow-tempo, perimeter-focused style with a defensive emphasis on eliminating second-chance opportunities. Though it lost a week ago to Kennesaw State—the other lead contender—Liberty had its worst defensive performance of the season. Avoid that, and the Flames reverse the result.

Big Sky: Eastern Washington Eagles

Apologies in advance for projecting my own hopes on Eastern Washington, which has rattled off a perfect Big Sky record. Its rotation is loaded with quality shooters and unselfish passers, making the Eagles a fascinating potential upset pick for March. But they'll probably need to navigate Montana State on a neutral floor in Boise, Idaho.

Big South: UNC Asheville Bulldogs

UNC Asheville has secured the No. 1 seed, but Longwood, Radford and Gardner-Webb are legitimate contenders, too. This tournament could get interesting, especially since campus sites won't be a factor. As appealing as the other options are, however, Asheville is headed toward March as the hottest team of the group.

Big West: Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

You like throwing darts? Five programs hold an 11-6 conference record or better in the Big West. So, let's take a shot on Hawai'i, which is mediocre offensively but presents one of the nation's toughest challenges with a nasty defense.

Colonial: Charleston Cougars

Despite holding a 26-3 record, Charleston could be the No. 2 seed behind Hofstra because of two CAA losses in the last month. It would be improper, then, to call the Cougars the unquestioned favorites. However, they're still the lead contender thanks to a reliable 10-player rotation, highly aggressive offensive style and solid perimeter defense.

C-USA: North Texas Mean Green

One of the prime bid-stealing leagues could be Conference USA, which may send Florida Atlantic to March Madness even without a tournament title. Sorry, bubble teams, that's our projection, too. North Texas has a habit of playing close games and matches up well against FAU's preference to launch threes and UAB's inefficiency inside the arc.

Horizon: Cleveland State Vikings

If you feel confident in any Horizon League squad, congratulations, that makes one of us. Youngstown State is the most exciting team, but the Penguins have the potential to implode defensively. One letdown can open a window for Cleveland State, which is led by former Kansas and Iowa State wing Tristan Enaruna and a steady defense. The Vikings have victories over top competition YSU and Northern Kentucky, too.

Mid-Majors, Part II

Ivy: Princeton Tigers

Only four programs make the Ivy League tournament, which will be played at Princeton this season. That seems like a substantial edge for a conference co-leader, no? Yale recently won an overtime game at Jadwin Gymnasium, but the Tigers are otherwise undefeated at home in league play.

MAAC: Iona Gaels

Iona shockingly lost in the quarterfinals as the MAAC's top seed in 2022, but history won't repeat itself. Well, we don't think so, at least. While defense is once again Iona's key strength, the offense has picked up its performance lately. This projection is subject to change, though, if Siena or Rider topple Iona in upcoming regular-season games.

MAC: Kent State Golden Flashes

Do you prefer offense or defense? Toledo showcases the former with 85.0 points per game, while Kent State commands the latter with just 64.2 allowed. In short: Basketball gods, please give us Toledo and Kent State in the MAC final. If that happens, flip a coin. Kent State won the January clash at home and is our pick, but Toledo is an equal threat.

MEAC: North Carolina Central Eagles

Exactly how much a tough schedule means in March can be overstated. Still, it feels notable that North Carolina Central not just played but also competed with Virginia and LSU, along with a loss to Marquette. Having the league's second-best defense, per KenPom, doesn't hurt, either.

Missouri Valley: Drake Bulldogs

Early in conference play, Drake had a turnover issue. But the Bulldogs have better protected the ball since mid-January, and they've basically stopped losing. Though the defense can be beat on the perimeter despite its strong ranking (30th) in three-point clip allowed, the steadiness of the offense makes the Bulldogs the deserved favorites for March Madness.

Mountain West: Boise State Broncos

This is a five-program race among San Diego State—a lock for the NCAA tourney—Boise State, Nevada, Utah State and New Mexico. Without a MWC crown, Selection Sunday will be a nerve-wracking experience for the latter four. Given the tough 4 vs. 5 matchup before playing SDSU, landing in the 2 vs. 3 clash is an edge. Boise State should be favored there, and a victory in the final would eliminate any questions about the Broncos' résumé.

Northeast: Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

There is a half-decent shot the Northeast Conference produces an NCAA-bound program with a losing record. Even if Merrimack (13-16) edges past the .500 mark thanks to a stout defense, the Warriors aren't yet eligible for March Madness. Instead, the runner-up—provided it's also not Stonehill—would land the bid. That's the long version of saying Fairleigh Dickinson may wind up as the default choice.

Ohio Valley: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks

Conference realignment shook the Ohio Valley, but the changes may be UT Martin's gain. The program has never appeared in the NCAA tournament, but a rotation filled with transfers has carried the Skyhawks to a likely top-three OVC seed. Factor in a win over conference favorite Morehead State, and UT Martin will be a confident group in this new-look tournament.

Mid-Majors, Part III

Patriot: Colgate Raiders

Riding a nine-game home winning streak into the Patriot League tournament, Colgate is the obvious favorite. It's tough to predict with any confidence that another team can contain the nation's top perimeter offense.

Southern: Furman Palladins

The peak of the conference is crowded with Samford, Furman and UNC Greensboro. As with several leagues, the real surprise would be if one of the top programs didn't win. Furman takes a ton of threes but is unselfish and hyper-efficient inside the arc, providing the Palladins with enough flexibility to outlast Samford and UNCG.

Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders

The Islanders are the most complete team in the conference. That doesn't always show itself in league tournaments, yet they are efficient on offense, tend to win the rebounding battle and create a bunch of turnovers. That should be enough to win the Southland.

SWAC: Grambling State Tigers

After a couple of injuries stung Grambling in January, the rotation has been healthy and playing well during the last month. In particular, Carte'are Gordon has regained his place as a pivotal contributor down low and made a huge impact on defense.

Summit: Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

This is a painless pick, right? Not only is the program undefeated in conference play, but Oral Roberts has also ripped through much of its Summit League slate. Max Abmas, who guided the Golden Eagles to the Sweet 16 two years ago, headlines an offense loaded with three-point shooters.

Sun Belt: Marshall Thundering Herd

The challenge with Marshall is the offense relies on Taevion Kinsey, Andrew Taylor and Kamdyn Curfman. If any of them struggle, the Thundering Herd might not be able to survive a thin rotation. At their best, though, the trio comprise a versatile machine of playmakers and can carry Marshall to a tourney title in its Sun Belt debut.

WAC: Sam Houston State Bearkats

No team in the country forces turnovers at a higher rate than Sam Houston State, which also boasts the nation's third-best three-point percentage. Utah Valley smacked the Bearkats in their December meeting, but Sam Houston is certainly capable of flipping that result.

WCC: Gonzaga Bulldogs

Gonzaga or St. Mary's? From a big-picture perspective, it hardly matters. Both programs are NCAA tournament locks, so the main storyline is whether BYU, Santa Clara or Loyola Marymount, for example, can steal the automatic bid. However, I'll stick with Gonzaga to once again secure the WCC crown.

High-Majors, Part I

AAC: Houston Cougars

Look, if they're not the best team in the country, the Cougars are no worse than second. The bold decision is to project Memphis or Tulane, but there's no evidence to suggest Houston—a superb offensive team and dominant defensive unit—won't reinforce its billing.

ACC: Miami Hurricanes

Duke's freshman-filled squad can never be ruled out because of its talent. However, the ACC still feels like a Miami or Virginia discussion. Miami has a terrifying offense, especially in transition. Virginia is steady, though the Wahoos have tiptoed past upsets all year. The Canes struggled to finish games outside of Coral Gables earlier this season but seem to have settled that concern in February.

Atlantic 10: Dayton Flyers

Realistically, the Atlantic 10 is more a mid-major conference this season. The expectation is it'll be a one-bid league, only sending the tourney champ to March Madness. The front-runners are VCU and Dayton, a pair of defense-driven teams. Those strengths makes any matchup a toss-up, and they unsurprisingly split two games decided by four points or fewer. Dayton lands the edge because VCU has the potential to disappear on offense.

Big 12: Kansas Jayhawks

Considering the 10-team Big 12 has six NCAA locks, two more bubble teams and another unlikely-but-not-unreasonable hopeful, the lone shocker would be if Oklahoma rose up out of nowhere. Kansas has apparently moved beyond its midseason lapse, falling to just Iowa State in the last month. There are worse options than picking the hot team.

High-Majors, Part II

Big East: Connecticut Huskies

What a beautiful mess. The short version is that playing on the road has proved disastrous in the Big East. Can that trend be applied to a neutral-site tourney? Does that mean nearby UConn holds the edge because it has such a large fanbase, relatively speaking? That's probably less important than simply recognizing the Huskies are a stellar rebounding team, create a ton of second chances and are well above-average defensively.

Big Ten: Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue has stoop atop the league all season, but recent setbacks at Indiana, Northwestern and Maryland have swung the Big Ten to a wide-open situation. Nine programs have a winning record in conference play. Though the Boilers remain my pick because of star center Zach Edey and a defense that avoids fouling shooters, the confidence level is obviously shaken.

Pac-12: Arizona Wildcats

To close the regular season, Arizona heads to USC and UCLA. Those contests will probably have a considerable effect on the perception of the Pac-12 tournament. The Bruins are the favorites because of a tremendous defense—and despite an offense that does so little on the perimeter. The Wildcats, though, have stacked comfortable wins throughout the last five-plus weeks with a single setback at Stanford.

SEC: Arkansas Razorbacks

Based on seeding, Arkansas would be the most dramatic champion of these projections. It's possible the Hogs will finish ninth in the SEC. Nevertheless, I'm jumping aboard the bandwagon. Star freshman Nick Smith Jr. returned from a right knee injury Feb. 11, rejoined the starting lineup Saturday and popped off for 26 points Tuesday. He can provide the long-range punch Arkansas has lacked this season.