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7 Players Whom Teams Will Overpay for at the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline

Adam Herman

The March 3 NHL trading deadline marks the time by which playoff teams add to the roster. In some cases, teams are hoping to add a difference-maker. For others, the next few weeks will be about rounding off the roster with a final tweak.

General managers are under pressure—from fans, from the locker room and from ownership—to make a deep playoff run. Other good teams will make additions in hopes of becoming great. One has to keep up.

Consequently, the moment is ripe for ruinous decisions. Previous deadlines have provided the entertainment of some legendary blunders. In 2012, the Red Wings threw away the first-round pick that became Andrei Vasilevskiy in order to rent depth defenseman Kyle Quincey. In 2014, the Washington Capitals gifted the Nashville Predators Filip Forsberg in order to acquire Martin Erat.

The 2023 deadline should be no different. Desperation is the foundation for poor decision-making in the heat of the moment. Valuations are inflated at this time of year. By the summer, a handful of GMs will regret their decisions and wish they had kept those assets now missing from their toolbox.

Here are seven players available at the 2023 NHL trading deadline who are likely to cost more than they are worth.

Vladislav Gavrikov, Columbus Blue Jackets

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Quite often, the value of a player at the trading deadline comes down to what the rest of the market looks like. Erik Karlsson and Jakub Chychrun are up for grabs as expensive long-term investments, but for teams who want to shop on the rental market, the pickings are slim. In such an environment, the correct path is to find the shrewdest values.

What one team will inevitably decide to do is overpay for Vladislav Gavrikov. The worst value at the trading deadline is often a big defenseman who is logging a lot of minutes for a terrible team. In 2022, that was Ben Chiarot, who went to Florida for a first-round pick, a fourth-round pick and a prospect. He performed poorly on the way to a Panthers second-round sweep versus Tampa Bay.

In fairness, Gavrikov's poor performance this season can partially be attributed to overexposure. Columbus is a bad team, and Zach Werenski's absence has forced head coach Brad Larsen to put Gavrikov in a role above his means. On a better team and in a more appropriate role, he should produce better results.

But that is the point. If Columbus holds firm on its ask of a first-round pick plus more, as reported by TSN's Chris Johnston, then a team will be parting with assets that reflect the capability of a top-pairing defenseman. Gavrikov's two-way play shows a capability closer to that of a borderline No. 3/4 blueliner. A player of that caliber is worth a second-round pick.

Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks

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There is playoff experience, and then there is Jonathan Toews. He was the captain for three championships in Chicago, doing it as early as a 22-year-old in 2010.

That matters in a legitimate way rather than the typical way GMs overvalue a depth player who happened to be a part of a Cup winner.

But Toews, now 34, is understandably not the player he once was. He missed the entire 2020-21 season, scored only 37 points in 71 games last season and is battling to get to 50 points this season. And whereas prime Toews got the puck up the ice and created scoring chances at borderline elite levels, he is now more of a support player on offense. Meanwhile, his defensive game has dropped significantly.

To be fair, he is in an impossible situation in Chicago. Few players in the league are going to look good centering Taylor Raddysh and Philipp Kurashev on the first line. With better linemates in an easier situation, Toews should play better.

As a general premise, a team who trades major assets to rent a declining soon-to-be 35-year-old is making a big mistake. There are much better targets out there. Ryan O'Reilly of St. Louis is a better player at the moment. He is the Blues' captain and also has Stanley Cup experience. For better values, Nick Bonino from San Jose and Sean Monahan from Montreal can hold their own centering a third line.

There are a few potential exceptions. Both the Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs are in desperate need of a center. Both are at the peak of their Stanley Cup windows. If they overpay for a good player with prestige such as Toews, then there would be some logic to it. For every other team, however, buyer beware.

John Klingberg, Anaheim Ducks

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There was a time when John Klingberg was one of the league's premier offensive defensemen. During his first five years in the league—from 2014-15 through 2018-19—Klingberg ranked seventh among all defensemen by points.

He is no longer that player. The 30-year-old defenseman is still producing points. He tallied 41 in 74 games for Dallas last season and currently has 20 through 45 games in Anaheim. But that is a steep decline from his career-high 67 points in 2017-18.

This can be primarily attributed to the reality that he no longer drives offense the way he once did. While Klingberg still capitalizes on offensive opportunities, he does not create opportunities at the same rate.

But the bigger issue is that he is a major defensive liability. There are point-producing defensemen in the NHL whose deficiencies are outweighed by the offensive rewards. That is not the case with Klingberg, who gifts the opposition frequent scoring chances at a clip that completely wipes out the benefits of his offense.

At this point in his career, Klingberg is a power-play specialist. Frankly, if a team does not already have a legitimate quarterback at the point with the man advantage, they're probably not a contender. And even if Anaheim absorbs half of his cap hit, he'll still occupy a hefty $3.5M of cap space that could be allocated to either a better player or multiple reinforcements.

For teams who feel the need to add offense to the blueline, teammate Kevin Shattenkirk or Arizona's Shayne Gostisbehere would be far better investments.

Ivan Barbashev, St. Louis Blues

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Barbashev's reputation outweighs his actual impact. Yes, last season the Russian forward hit the 25-goal and 60-point milestones. Good for him, but that is probably not going to happen again. In his previous five seasons, the now 27-year-old scored at a pace of roughly 13 goals and 27 points per 82 games.

He has fallen back down to earth this season with nine goals and 15 assists in 52 games. And while he ostensibly plays a heavy game, it doesn't translate much to tilting the ice in his team's favor, and Barbashev is consistently a liability in his own zone. That is not acceptable for a player who isn't reliable for even 40 points.

And while his Stanley Cup ring from 2019 doesn't hurt, the value of that accolade is vastly overrated when it comes to impact in four playoff rounds. Experience matters, but what matters more is having a really good team. For a contender, Barbashev is either a great fourth-liner or a passable third-liner.

ESPN's Kevin Weekes speculates that Barbashev could net the Blues a first- or second-round pick and a prospect. Even if we assumed the low end of the spectrum, that is still way too much. For teams looking to add a bottom-six forward, Nick Bjugstad, Lars Eller and Andreas Athanasiou would provide similar value at a fraction of the price.

Sam Lafferty, Chicago Blackhawks

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This list is littered with players whose prior reputations cloud their current abilities. In the case of Sam Lafferty, it feels like a reputation has been conjured from thin air.

Give credit to Lafferty. He did not make his NHL debut with Pittsburgh until he was 24 years old and has since carved out a nice NHL career for himself, and he is experiencing his best season yet. The Pennsylvania native has tallied eight goals and 11 assists through 45 games. He is also a strong defensive forward. Those are all the qualities one wants in an end-of-the-lineup forward. There are good reasons for teams to call Chicago with inquiries.

But if you believe insiders, he will be a particularly sought-after player at the deadline. Daily Faceoff's Frank Servalli used third-round values from past deadlines as benchmarks for what a Lafferty trade could look like.

That is a hefty cost to pay for a 27-year-old whose previous career high in goals was six in 2019-20.

The argument for Lafferty's accentuated value is that he is signed through 2024 for a $1.15M cap hit. While there is nothing wrong with that contract, there is little reason to see that as moving the needle. Every offseason, there are dozens of fourth-line forwards available for around that same price or even cheaper.

The same holds true during this season's trading period. Depth forwards are always a surplus market and are usually attainable for a fifth- or sixth-round pick. In fact, if a team insists on acquiring a depth player who is retainable beyond this season, the better choice would be another Chicago forward; Taylor Raddysh.

Luke Schenn, Vancouver Canucks

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Look, I get it. Schenn is a 17-year veteran who played a role in back-to-back Stanley Cup championships in Tampa Bay. He is humble enough to take on a depth role or even spend time in the press box. Coaches like his worth ethic and locker-room presence.

One might be intrigued by Schenn's 18 points in 53 games this season. That is a fluke. The brutish blueliner had not previously surpassed 20 points since 2012. Per Evolving Hockey, when Schenn is on the ice the Canucks are averaging 3.12 goals per 60 minutes. That is significantly higher than the expected 2.38 goals per 60. His offense is not sustainable, but a pro scout could become biased by outcomes rather than process.

When the Lightning signed him to back-to-back contracts worth $700K and $800K respectively, it made sense. At the 2023 trading deadline, this is a player worth a fifth-round pick for a true contender who believes one small tweak could get them over the hump.

A team that acquires Schenn seems set to pay much more. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet (h/t Canucks Army) reported the Canucks turned down a second-round pick at last year's trading deadline, and they could even decide to keep him this year, according to Pierre LeBrun for TSN. It is a bizarre line of thinking by Canucks management, but that's a different story.

If at least one team is willing to pony up a high draft pick, then it's going to probably be to their own demise. That type of compensation should be dedicated to a defenseman who can play on a second defensive pairing and truly tilt the scales on the ice.

Joel Edmundson, Montreal Canadiens

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Edmundson is another defenseman who fits a trend in this piece. He is 6'5" and 221 pounds. He has played in eight NHL seasons and won a Stanley Cup in St. Louis in 2019. He is an alternate captain in Montreal.

He also just isn't that good. There was a time when Edmundson was one of the more underrated defensemen in the NHL. Though his point production might not show it, he created offense for his team by moving the puck. But big defensemen who log heavy minutes typically don't age well. He's had a number of stints on the injury list during his career and played just 24 games in 2021-22. In the last two seasons, Edmundson's play has reflected that of a passable depth defenseman.

Edmundson is signed through 2024 on a $3.5M contract. In theory, the extra season would extend his value. In reality, given his play over the last two seasons, that contract is a burden.

If a team decided to take a flyer on him, with Montreal retaining some salary, in hopes that he'd have a renaissance on a better team, that would be sensible. Less sensible is the Habs' reported asking price; a first-round pick plus more, according to Johnston (h/t Montreal Hockey Now). As the deadline draws nearer, that ask will whittle down. That won't matter, as that initial valuation is nowhere close to the fourth-round pick his play justifies.

   

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