NFL Free Agents Who Could Blow Up on New Teams in 2023

The AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles are focused firmly on Super Bowl LVII. But the other 30 NFL teams have turned their focus toward the offseason.

One of the most important steps will be free agency.

Not all free agents are created equal. Many of the biggest names won't get anywhere near the open market. Some will receive multi-year extensions. Others—such as Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones—may get franchise-tagged. But dozens of NFL players will be on the move in the months to come.

Some are stars from whom greatness is expected. Others aren't such sure things. Some are young players who have never quite lived up to their potential. Others are trying to recapture past glories after tailing off in recent years.

All of those free agents have one thing in common: Changing teams might help spur a big 2023 season.

Kareem Hunt's career is at a crossroads. After an injury-marred 2021 season, Hunt saw both his role in the Cleveland Browns offense and his per-snap productivity decline in 2022.

His 3.8 yards per carry was a career low. Trade rumors swirled around the 27-year-old at the deadline last year, and he admitted to reporters in November that he was open to moving on from the Browns.

"I mean, I'm down for whatever, man," Hunt said. "I'm a football player and this is a business. So, I'm ready to do whatever they decide with me. That's either go somewhere else or here, anything it don't matter. I love the game of football."

At this point, a change of scenery is undoubtedly the best thing for Hunt's career. As the 2022 season wore on, his role in Cleveland's offense decreased. He had only 21 total carries over the final five games of the season. It's next to impossible for any back to get going when they receive only a handful of carries per game.

But in 2020, Hunt surpassed 1,100 total yards, averaged 4.2 yards per carry, caught 38 passes and scored 11 touchdowns. As a rookie in 2017, Hunt paced the NFL with 1,327 rushing yards. And his career yards-per-carry is a respectable 4.5.

Hunt still has the ability to be a lead back in the NFL. He just needs the opportunity. If some team gives him one, his next contract should be substantially smaller than the deals running backs like Saquon Barkley and David Montgomery get this spring.

When the Detroit Lions handed wide receiver DJ Chark a one-year, $10 million contract last offseason, they were likely hoping for more than 30 catches and 502 receiving yards. On the other hand, he was one of the NFL's more effective big-play generators this season.

"Despite playing through some injuries, including an aggravation of the ankle that cost him most of his final season in Jacksonville, Chark notched one of the highest big-play rates of any wide receiver in 2022," Jeff Risdon of Lions Wire noted. "Chark produced a big play, defined as a catch of 20 yards or more and a run of 10 yards or more, on nine of his 52 targets. That big-play rate of 17.3 percent ranked sixth among receivers with at least 40 targets."

Chark's role in Motown isn't likely to increase next season. Amon-Ra St. Brown is Jared Goff's unquestioned favorite target. Jameson Williams should be a big part of the Lions offense in 2023 after barely playing as a rookie. But if Chark lands with a receiver-needy team like the Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns or New York Giants, he could see a sizable increase in target share.

If Chark can come anywhere close to his per-target effectiveness in 2023, he could return to the halcyon days of 2019, when he caught 73 passes, topped 1,000 receiving yards, scored eight touchdowns and made the only Pro Bowl of his career.

No team in the NFL turns more undrafted free agents into starters than the New England Patriots. Jakobi Meyers is one such example.

In four seasons, the former North Carolina State standout has gone from draft-day afterthought to New England's best wide receiver. In 2022, Meyers led the Pats in receiving yards (807) and touchdown catches (six).

The bill has now come due for that career season, as Meyers is set to become an unrestricted free agent. Quarterback Mac Jones wants the Pats to keep him in Beantown.

"Jakobi's one of the best—if not the best—teammates I've ever had," Jones told reporters. "He's a great person. He comes to work every day. Doesn't complain. Does everything right. And he deserves everything that's coming his way. So hopefully it's with us. Yeah, he means a lot to me."

For his part, Meyers said he's going to take his impending free agency one day at a time.

"When that time comes, I'll cross that bridge," Meyers said. "Whether I'm here or I'm not here, I'll tell all the guys that I appreciate them. Because the locker room changes regardless of whether I'm here or not. So tell everybody that I appreciate them and embrace these couple moments with the guys."

It makes sense for the Pats to lock up their leading receiver over the last three seasons. But Meyers has never had even 900 receiving yards in a season. As arguably the No. 1 free agent at the position this year, Meyers isn't going to hurt for suitors.

With a better situation (and quarterback) in 2023, he could sail past 1,000 yards for the first time.

When the Miami Dolphins used the franchise tag on tight end Mike Gesicki this past offseason, it appeared as though they had big plans for him. But that was before they traded for Tyreek Hill.

Gesicki wound up catching only 32 passes for 362 yards this past season. Both numbers were his lowest since his rookie years.

Despite being mostly phased out of the Dolphins offense, he told reporters after the team's postseason loss to the Bills that he hasn't ruled out a return to Miami.

"Been here for five years and have loved every second, the good and the bad and the ups and the downs and all that kind of stuff," Gesicki said. "So if my journey brings me back here next year and I'm back here in April and OTAs. I mean, I'll be here with a smile on my face."

Given his decreased role in Miami's offense, it's unlikely that the Dolphins will make a concerted effort to re-sign him. That might be for the best.

As Gesicki showed with five touchdowns on only 52 targets, he remains a viable red-zone target. He was miscast last year in Miami as an in-line blocker. His skill set is better suited to being a field-stretching receiving option over the middle.

If Gesicki lands somewhere that makes better use of what he does well, he could be headed for a career year in 2023.

When Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus singled out one impending free agent that each NFL team couldn't afford to lose, he settled on edge-rusher Marcus Davenport for the New Orleans Saints:

"Davenport has struggled to stay on the field throughout his five years with the Saints, but if he leaves in free agency, they'll have very little talent to speak off on the edge outside of a 34-year-old Cameron Jordan on the final year of his contract, with 2021 first-round pick edge defender Payton Turner a healthy scratch for much of his second season.

"Over the past three seasons, Davenport's 19.0% pass-rush win rate ranks 14th and his 14.2% pressure rate ranks 17th among edge defenders. The Saints simply cannot give up that level of pass-rush productivity because he's played only about 475 snaps a season—that is, unless his asking price takes him out of consideration, which is entirely possible."

However, the Saints, who are already a league-high $57.4 million above the cap, may not be able to afford to keep Davenport in town. He might be better off somewhere else, too.

PFF may love Davenport, but he has struggled to convert pressures into sacks. After logging nine sacks in 2021, he managed only 0.5 sacks this past season and was supplanted on the depth chart by Carl Granderson.

Still, Davenport was a first-round pick in the 2018 draft. At least one NFL team likely will roll the dice on turning the 26-year-old's potential into production.

And Davenport would be the first player who turned his career around after switching teams.

As his fourth season wound down, Tennessee Titans linebacker David Long made it clear to reporters that if it were it up to him, he wouldn't be going anywhere.

"Of course I'd love to stay here," Long said. "I think I have done my part as far as any time I'm on the field, that's what I can control – I think I did my part. Anything other than that I am going to leave it up to God and my agent and stuff like that.

However, Tennessee is already nearly $23.7 million over next year's salary cap. And given the skills that Long has displayed in coverage the past two seasons—including a passer rating against below 75 in both years—he should be one of the more sought-after off-ball linebackers in 2023.

Moving on might be a blessing for Long.

As long as he stays healthy, he should sail past 100 total tackles in 2023, whether it's in Nashville or somewhere else. But if Long remains in Tennessee, he's going to continue to toil in relative anonymity. Should he land somewhere like New York, Pittsburgh or Washington, his profile would only go up.

It's much easier to have a breakout season if someone actually notices it.

Back in September, Arizona Cardinals cornerback Byron Murphy made it clear that he wasn't concerned with his impending free agency. He figured his play would do the talking.

"The biggest thing for me is to stay focused," Murphy said, via the team's website. "In my mind, I think I'm one of the best in this league. When we talk about money, that's not really my thing. This team comes first. I obviously have to go out and shine, regardless of whether it is my last year here. Keep playing ball, be focused on ball."

Murphy's fourth season looked quite a bit like the first three, both for better and for worse.

At times, Murphy looked the part of a No. 1 cornerback. At other times, he did not. Murphy allowed a passer rating against above 100 for the second time in four years and missed almost half of the 2022 season because of a back injury.

Inconsistency and durability concerns aside, Murphy will still be a hot commodity on the open market. He's arguably the top available player at one of the game's most valuable positions. Arizona will likely make an effort to bring Murphy back, although defensive lineman Zach Allen is probably the team's No. 1 priority.

But the Cardinals are facing a highly uncertain future thanks to the departure of head coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray's ACL injury. Given the plethora of teams with a need in the secondary, a fresh start would give Murphy a better shot at his first Pro Bowl nod.

In each his first NFL three seasons, Cincinnati Bengals safety Jessie Bates III logged at least 100 tackles. In 2020, he was named a second-team All Pro.

Extension talks broke down with the Bengals last offseason, which caused them to franchise-tag him. After a preseason holdout, Bates returned to the team and started 16 games.

Following Cincinnati's loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, Bates told reporters that he'd prefer to stay with the only NFL team he has ever known.

"I'm super grateful—that's all I could think about running off the field. It's where we were when I first got here and where it ended—just says a lot. … I've met a lot of great people in this locker room, in the training room, reporters, normal people in Cincinnati. I've built huge relationships, connections.

"So, if this is the end, I'm super grateful for the process. Super grateful for everything that I've learned here in Cincinnati, in my five years. We'll see what happens."

However, with Joe Burrow's looming megadeal about to put a massive dent in the team's salary-cap space, the Bengals aren't likely to pay up for Bates. Especially after drafting his successor, Daxton Hill, with the 31st overall pick in last year's draft.

Although Bates had a career-low 71 tackles this year, he remains a talented and versatile safety in the prime of his career who can play deep or up near the line of scrimmage. If he lands with a team that knows how to use him, the best season of his NFL career will be well within reach.