Georgetown's Patrick Ewing Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Men's College Basketball Coaches on the Hot Seat Late in 2022-23 Season

Kerry Miller

Georgetown's Patrick Ewing, Nebraska's Fred Hoiberg and several Pac-12 coaches are currently situated on the hottest seats in men's college basketball.

Last offseason, there were 64 coaching changes, 14 of them occurring in the six major conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC). Not all of them were fired, of course. Jay Wright and Mike Krzyzewski retired. Mike White and Kevin Willard left for different high-major gigs.

Most of them were fired, though, and there will be more firings this offseason. There always are. And we've ranked the most likely candidates from the six major conferences.

One noteworthy coach you won't find mentioned within: John Calipari. Since becoming the head coach of Kentucky in 2009-10, only Gonzaga, Kansas and Duke have won more games than the Wildcats. Short-sighted, disgruntled fans and (probably more so) pot-stirring outsiders were clamoring for Calipari to get the axe and take the Texas job when things were at their worst after the loss to South Carolina. But there's just no way Kentucky would fire Cal.

A different Cal, though, is No. 1 on the list.

Honorable Mentions

Ohio State's Chris Holtmann Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Chris Holtmann, Ohio State: Holtmann won at least 20 games in each of his first five seasons in Columbus, but it still feels like the Buckeyes are perennially underachieving. And despite all those wins, nary a trip to the Sweet 16. If this 11-10 season continues to unravel and they miss the dance, it could be time for a change.

Mike Hopkins, Washington: The longtime right-hand man to Jim Boeheim at Syracuse has struggled mightily since getting the Huskies to the 2019 NCAA tournament. Washington finished each of the past two seasons outside the KenPom top 100 and may be headed for a third such campaign. At least when they struggled under Lorenzo Romar, there was NBA talent on the roster to watch. Hopkins hasn't even signed a 4-star recruit since Jamal Bey in 2018.

Bobby Hurley, Arizona State: Hurley seemed to be in great shape for a job-saving tournament appearance a few weeks ago, but a four-game losing skid has changed that in a hurry. It's hardly a guarantee he would get fired if the Sun Devils end up on the wrong side of the bubble, but that seat is definitely getting warm in Tempe.

Wayne Tinkle, Oregon State: That magical run to the 2021 Elite Eight bought Tinkle a lot of goodwill. But the Beavers went 3-28 last year and haven't been much better this year. That said, the freshman combo of Jordan Pope and Michael Rataj has been impressive for one of the most inexperienced teams in the country. Tinkle deserves at least one more year to cultivate the seeds he has planted.

Josh Pastner, Georgia Tech: Like Tinkle, Pastner oversaw a good squad in 2020-21, earning a No. 9 seed in the NCAA tournament. But the Yellow Jackets went 12-20 last year and might be even worse this year. A loss in either of the remaining games against Louisville might be the final straw.

Jerry Stackhouse, Vanderbilt: Hard to see this one happening, considering Stackhouse inherited a disaster. Vanderbilt lost its final 20 games in its final season under Bryce Drew, so it's impressive that Stackhouse was able to win 19 games last season in his third year on the job. But the Commodores have regressed this year, even suffering a home loss to Grambling State. He's probably safe for now, but that theoretically could change if they implode down the stretch.

Leonard Hamilton, Florida State: After more than two decades at the helm, Hamilton should have the coaching equivalent of tenure at this point. However, the past season and a half have been rough for the 'Noles. Can't imagine they'll fire him, but they might have a long talk after the season to see if he really feels like coming back again next year at the age of 75.

8. Chris Collins, Northwestern

Northwestern's Chris Collins Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images

This Season: 15-5

Full Tenure at Northwestern: 148-155, one NCAA tournament (10th season)

The hot seat talk has cooled considerably in Evanston, as Chris Collins is well on his way to ending the five-year streak of losing seasons.

The Wildcats aren't exactly a lock for the NCAA tournament, though, and they have a brutal remaining schedule. They'll play six road games against projected tournament teams, plus home games against Purdue, Indiana, Iowa, Penn State and Michigan.

Things could turn south in a hurry, and missing the dance with something like a 19-13 record probably wouldn't be enough to justify bringing Collins back for an 11th season.

Granted, the standard for athletic excellence at Northwestern is nowhere near what it is for some of the other schools on this list. Before Collins got the job, Bill Carmody lasted 13 tournament-less seasons with a .478 winning percentage. And once upon a time from 1986-93, Bill E. Foster coached seven consecutive seasons with a .321 winning percentage, or worse, and still walked away on his own terms.

Eventually, though, there has to be a breaking point. And while coaching Northwestern to its first NCAA tournament appearance was enough to get Collins a five-year grace period, yet another bottom-three finish in the Big Ten might be that breaking point.

Again, things are looking good for now. Coaches in our top four could get fired tomorrow and no one would be surprised. Collins will at least survive the season. But these next six weeks will be crucial.

7. Jeff Capel III, Pittsburgh

Pitt's Jeff Capel III Justin Casterline/Getty Images

This Season: 15-7

Full Tenure at Pittsburgh: 66-76, zero NCAA tournaments (fifth season)

Jeff Capel III entered the 2022-23 season on one of the hottest seats in the country. There was a lot of speculation last season that he might get ousted, up until Pittsburgh Sports Now found out Capel had a $15 million buyout if fired after last season, which drops to $5 million if fired after the current season.

So, after four consecutive losing seasons—with a seemingly constant trend of losing key players to the transfer portal, no less—Capel was given one more chance to salvage his job.

The good news is that Pittsburgh is currently enjoying its best season since 2015-16.

The bad news is the Panthers are still nowhere close to top 50 on KenPom and would be right on the bubble cut line if the NCAA tournament began today.

Moreover, four of the five team leaders in scoring are graduate seniors. So, even if the Panthers sneak into the tournament and fail to make any sort of memorable run through March Madness, it's not like they're building momentum for next season. It's already going to be somewhat of a rebuilding situation, so it'd be a good time to let a new coach do the rebuilding.

There's still time, though. Pitt has tough road games remaining against North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Miami, but everything else is very winnable. If the Panthers can steal one of those road games en route to a 7-2 finish and something like a No. 9 or No. 10 seed in the dance, maybe that does the trick for a sixth season.

6. Mike Anderson, St. John's

St. John's head coach Mike Anderson Rich Schultz/Getty Images

This Season: 14-8

Full Tenure at St. John's: 64-49, zero NCAA tournaments (fourth season)

Say this much for Mike Anderson: The program hasn't gotten any worse than it had been for the previous two decades.

From 2000-01 through 2018-19, the Red Storm went to four NCAA tournaments and never won more than 21 games in a season. By that standard, three consecutive winning seasons with a possible fourth on the way—even without a single trip to the dance to show for it—isn't too shabby.

But has St. John's actually gotten any better under Anderson?

And after four seasons to establish his mark, is "comparable to the best that things have been since 2000" really good enough for this once-great Big East program?

If nothing else, the Johnnies are fun to watch, having leveraged Anderson's "40 Minutes of Hell" approach to play at one of the fastest paces in the nation in each of the past two seasons. And they did score a massive road win over Connecticut a few weeks ago.

However, the recruiting hasn't gotten any better than it was under Steve Lavin or Chris Mullin, and those big wins seem to only pop up twice per season for a team that has set up permanent residence on the wrong side of the bubble.

If I had to bet on it, Anderson gets at least one more year if the Red Storm tread water well enough to finish the season above .500. But if things fall apart down the stretch, let's just say it's not a long journey north to New Rochelle to see if Rick Pitino wants to try to take a sixth program to the NCAA tournament.

5. Kermit Davis Jr., Ole Miss

Ole Miss' Kermit Davis Jr. Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

This Season: 9-12

Full Tenure at Ole Miss: 73-73, one NCAA tournament (fifth season)

Kermit Davis Jr.'s first season at Ole Miss was a solid one. He leaned heavily on the three-headed backcourt of Breein Tyree, Terence Davis and Devontae Shuler for 20 wins and a No. 8 seed in the NCAA tournament—the program's best since earning a No. 3 seed in 2001.

Since then, however, it has been tough sledding for the former 16-year head coach at Middle Tennessee.

Between 2019-20 and 2020-21, Ole Miss won just one nonconference game against a KenPom top 200 opponent and went 17-20 overall in SEC play. Last year was even worse, as the Rebels went 13-19 overall and won just four conference games. And at 1-7 through the first eight SEC games with only one win (vs. Florida Atlantic) worth mentioning this year, things are as bad in Oxford as they've ever been under Davis.

It bears mentioning that Davis has done impressive work on the recruiting trail. No 5-star pickups yet, but six of the program's 11 highest-rated recruits in 247 Sports history (since 2000) have come under the current head coach. That includes a pair of 4-star guys in next year's class.

Sacrificing that AAU/grassroots momentum might be a tough pill for Ole Miss to swallow.

Then again, getting progressively worse on the court while increasing the talent level makes Davis' shortcomings that much more frustrating.

4. Fred Hoiberg, Nebraska

Nebraska's Fred Hoiberg Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

This Season: 10-12

Full Tenure at Nebraska: 34-79, zero NCAA tournaments (fourth season)

Fred Hoiberg was fantastic at Iowa State. He had a .673 winning percentage and went to four consecutive NCAA tournaments before making the leap to the NBA. By the end of his run in Ames, the Cyclones consistently had one of the most efficient and fastest-paced offenses in the nation.

His second stint as a college basketball coach has been decidedly less successful.

The Cornhuskers are more competitive this year than they had been the previous three seasons, but that's not saying much. This is still a sub-.500 team, hovering around 100th in the KenPom rankings, destined to miss the NCAA tournament for what will be the 24th time in 25 years.

And if they thought they were at least getting fast-paced, efficient, fun-to-watch offense by bringing in Hoiberg, goodness were they mistaken. He tried the uptempo thing with little to no success in his first three seasons. And now in year No. 4, Nebraska is roughly 200th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 250th in tempo.

Why they kicked Tim Miles to the curb with a winning record after seven seasons at the helm I'll never know. But moving on from Hoiberg after four years with around a .300 winning percentage is starting to feel like a must.

3. Jerod Haase, Stanford

Stanford's Jerod Haase John Fisher/Getty Images

This Season: 9-12

Full Tenure at Stanford: 107-102, zero NCAA tournaments (seventh season)

Coaches typically do not last seven years* at a high-major program without a single trip to the NCAA tournament.

One exception to that rule was Pat Chambers, who basically lived on the hot seat through nine tourney-less seasons at Penn State.

But if Stanford has fallen so far under Jerod Haase that it is reasonable to compare their standards in men's college basketball to those of Penn State, yikes.

As was the case for the previous eight years under Johnny Dawkins, Stanford has been somewhat respectable over the past seven years. In KenPom history, the Cardinal have never finished a season ranked worse than 112th.

However, there's a fine line between "not having any awful seasons" and "actually having some good seasons." Stanford has just been languishing in mediocrity for 15 years at this point.

In fairness to Haase, you can't tell me there has been a tougher high-major coaching job over the past few seasons.

During the 2020-21 season, they weren't even allowed to play home games until February because of Santa Clara County's COVID-19 restrictions. And while many programs are living and dying via the transfer portal these days, Stanford's academic standards make it just about impossible to swim in that talent pool. Michael Jones transferred from Davidson to Stanford this past offseason, becoming the program's first transfer in 12 years. In addition to being a part-time starter in the backcourt, he's pursuing a master's degree in statistics.

Still, six years without a trip to the dance plus a 5-12 start to this season might be the end of the line.

The lone saving grace for Haase could be that two of the top 50 players in next year's class have committed to the Cardinal. But it's not like they made the tournament with Ziaire Williams, Harrison Ingram or KZ Okpala, so risking losing those high-profile signees might be an acceptable cost of starting over with a new coach.

*There is a slim chance Stanford would have made the 2020 NCAA tournament, but they were my third team out and had already been eliminated from the Pac-12 tournament when the pandemic abruptly ended that season.

2. Patrick Ewing, Georgetown

Georgetown's Patrick Ewing Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

This Season: 6-16

Full Tenure at Georgetown: 74-100, one NCAA tournament (sixth season)

Let's be sure to note up front that Patrick Ewing's lone NCAA tournament appearance (as a coach) was a wholly unexpected miracle. Georgetown was 9-12 overall heading into the 2021 Big East tournament before inexplicably winning four games in four days, punctuated by a 25-point annihilation of what was a pretty good Creighton team. (Georgetown proceeded to lose by 23 in the first round of the dance.)

Take out that one magical week in Madison Square Garden, and it has been a rough six seasons under Ewing.

Last year, Ewing brought in the program's second-highest-rated recruit since 2000 in Aminu Mohammed, only to produce the second-worst winning percentage in program history (.194) and a one-and-done player who went undrafted.

This year, Ewing brought in seven players from the transfer portal, built his primary six-man rotation from that group and has somehow gotten even worse.

Yes, the infamous Big East losing streak finally ended at 29 consecutive games last week at home against DePaul, but what a sad cause for celebration.

Georgetown is now 12-41 overall over the past two seasons, but it's even worse if you filter out the "meaningless" games. The Hoyas have gone 0-31 against Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 competition since the beginning of last season, plus four losses against Quadrant 4.

Once upon a time, Georgetown games were the hottest ticket in D.C. sports—save for the professional football franchise, which doesn't actually play in D.C. Now in year No. 6 under Ewing, they're giving away tickets and still can't get people to show up.

At any other program, Ewing would be the clear No. 1 on this list. But would anyone honestly be surprised if this Hoyas legend got at least one more year?

1. Mark Fox, California

California's Mark Fox AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson

This Season: 3-18

Full Tenure at Cal: 38-76, zero NCAA tournaments (fourth season)

Prior to things completely falling apart under Wyking Jones, who went 16-47 in his two seasons (2017-19) as the head coach at California, the Golden Bears were a semi-regularly relevant program. From 1992-93 through 2016-17, they went to 13 NCAA tournaments and spent at least one week in the AP Top 25 in 13 seasons. And during that quarter century, they never had a drought of more than two years in which they failed to meet either of those criteria.

The hope was that former Georgia and former Nevada head coach Mark Fox would get Cal back to that standard, but that simply has not been the case.

In fact, barring some completely unforeseeable turnaround in which the Golden Bears win every remaining game on their schedule, the four worst seasons (both by winning percentage and by KenPom rank) of Fox's 18-year career have all come during his four-year stay in Berkeley.

Fox was already on thin ice coming into 2022-23 after three consecutive losing seasons. And rather than tread lightly, he cannonballed his way into a polar plunge with what is presently the worst winning percentage in the 114-year history of the program.

Cal lost home games against UC Davis, Southern, Texas State, Eastern Washington and Butler during nonconference play, plus a bad road loss to UC San Diego.

Losing by 20 at home two weekends ago against Oregon State in the battle for biggest dumpster fire in the Pac-12 very easily could have been the final straw, but I suppose there's no harm in letting Fox hang around for another six weeks before officially making a change.

   

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