John Lackey Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

Hall of Very Good: Ranking the MLB Players Likely to Get Bounced off 2023 HOF Ballot

Joel Reuter

The 2023 Baseball Hall of Fame voting results will be revealed on Tuesday, and while the focus this year has largely been on whether holdovers Todd Helton, Scott Rolen, Andruw Jones and Billy Wagner can finally get over the hump, there are 25 other players on the ballot.

From that group, there are 13 guys currently projected to fall short of the five percent voting support necessary to stick around for another year, according to the invaluable Hall of Fame voting tracker from Ryan Thibodaux.

Before we dive into our predictions for how the voting will play out early next week, let's shine some light on the players who are on pace to be bounced from the ballot.

Ahead, those 13 guys have been ranked based on their Hall of Fame credentials, and each of them has a compelling case for a place in the Hall of Very Good.

13. SS/3B Jhonny Peralta

Jhonny Peralta Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Stats: 1,798 G, 102 OPS+, .267/.329/.423, 1,761 H, 202 HR, 873 RBI, 17 SB

Accolades: 3x All-Star

WAR: 30.4

A 50-game PED suspension casts a cloud over the career of Jhonny Peralta. In fact, his performance during the 2013 postseason after he returned from suspension is a big reason why a rule banning players suspended for PEDs from participating in the playoffs the same year they were suspended was implemented the following offseason.

An offensive-minded shortstop, Peralta recorded three 20-homer seasons in Cleveland, made a pair of All-Star appearances in Detroit and garnered some down-ballot MVP votes late in his career in St. Louis.

The overall numbers probably warrant a spot somewhere in the middle of these rankings, but it's tough to overlook the PED suspension and the fact that nearly one-third of his career WAR came during the season he was suspended and the following year.

12. SP Bronson Arroyo

Bronson Arroyo John Reid III/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Stats: 383 GS, 148-137, 4.28 ERA (101 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP, 1,571 K, 2,435.2 IP

Accolades: 1x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove, 1x WS winner

WAR: 23.4

After three forgettable seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates and one year spent primarily in the minors, right-hander Bronson Arroyo turned in a breakout 2004 season with the Boston Red Sox. He finished 10-9 with a 4.03 ERA in 178.2 innings for the Boston team that would go on to finally break the Curse of the Bambino.

He spent one more season in Boston before he was traded to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for Wily Mo Peña, and over the next nine seasons he established himself as one of the best starting pitchers in franchise history.

All told, he went 105-94 with a 4.05 ERA and 105 ERA+ during that nine-year span while making at least 32 starts and tallying at least 199 innings every year. He teamed with Aaron Harang to form one of the most underrated one-two punches of the 2000s.

11. CF Jacoby Ellsbury

Jacoby Ellsbury Christopher Pasatieri/Getty Images

Stats: 1,235 G, 103 OPS+, .284/.342/.417, 1,376 H, 104 HR, 512 RBI, 343 SB

Accolades: 1x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger, 2x WS winner

WAR: 31.2

Jacoby Ellsbury looked like a superstar on the rise when he hit .321/.376/.552 with 46 doubles, 32 home runs, 105 RBI, 119 runs scored and 39 steals during an 8.3-WAR season in 2013 when he was runner-up in AL MVP voting.

However, that was really the only season in which he even remotely resembled a Hall of Fame-caliber player.

He did steal 120 bases over his first two full seasons in the majors, and he did enough in the two years following that breakout performance to earn a seven-year, $153 million deal from the New York Yankees. However, he didn't take the field once in the final three years of that contract, recording a disappointing 9.8 WAR over the life of that contract.

10. RP Huston Street

Ron Vesely/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Stats: 668 G, 324/376 SV, 86.2 SV%, 2.95 ERA (141 ERA+), 1.07 WHIP, 8.8 K/9

Accolades: 2x All-Star, 2005 AL Rookie of the Year

WAR: 14.5

After a standout collegiate career at the University of Texas, right-hander Huston Street was selected No. 40 overall in the 2004 draft. He earned a spot on the Opening Day roster the following spring, becoming the first player from his draft class to reach the majors.

A standout closer from the get-go, he converted 23 of 27 save opportunities with a 1.72 ERA in 67 appearances to edge out Robinson Canó for 2005 AL Rookie of the Year honors.

He went on to tally 324 saves over a 13-year career, good for 20th on the all-time list, putting him squarely in the Hall of Very Good category among relief pitchers.

9. RF Andre Ethier

Andre Ethier Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

Stats: 1,455 G, 122 OPS+, .285/.359/.463, 1,367 H, 162 HR, 687 RBI, 29 SB

Accolades: 2x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger

WAR: 21.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired a young Andre Ethier from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for Milton Bradley in one of the more lopsided trades of the 2000s, and he quickly developed into a rock-solid everyday right fielder.

During the six-year stretch from 2008 through the 2013 season, he hit .286/.363/.471 for a 127 OPS+ while averaging 35 doubles, 20 home runs, 78 RBI and 2.6 WAR. He won Silver Slugger in 2009, Gold Glove in 2011 and was a two-time All-Star during that peak.

Unfortunately, injuries limited him to just 38 games after his age-33 season, which kept him from compiling a more impressive overall resume.

8. C/1B Mike Napoli

Mike Napoli Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Stats: 1,392 G, 117 OPS+, .246/.346/.475, 1,125 H, 267 HR, 744 RBI, 39 SB

Accolades: 1x All-Star, 1x WS winner

WAR: 26.3

A burly right-handed slugger who topped 20 home runs eight different times in his career, Mike Napoli was a key run producer on three different pennant-winning teams.

2011 (TEX): 173 OPS+, 25 2B, 30 HR, 75 RBI
2013 (BOS): 128 OPS+, 38 2B, 23 HR, 92 RBI
2016 (CLE): 106 OPS+, 22 2B, 34 HR, 101 RBI

That 2013 Boston Red Sox squad went on to win the World Series, with Napoli tasked with protecting David Ortiz out of the No. 5 spot in the batting order.

A middling defensive catcher who eventually became a middling defensive first baseman, his value came exclusively from what he did in the batter's box, and his counting numbers ultimately fell well short of serious Hall of Fame consideration.

7. SS J.J. Hardy

J.J. Hardy G Fiume/Getty Images

Stats: 1,561 G, 91 OPS+, .256/.305/.408, 1,488 H, 188 HR, 688 RBI, 8 SB

Accolades: 2x All-Star, 3x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger

WAR: 28.1

J.J. Hardy began his career as part of an exciting young infield alongside Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks on the Milwaukee Brewers, breaking out during the 2007 season when he logged a 101 OPS+ with 30 doubles, 26 home runs and 80 RBI to earn his first All-Star selection. He spent five seasons in Milwaukee and one year with the Minnesota Twins before really hitting his stride as a member of the Baltimore Orioles.

In his first four seasons in Baltimore, he averaged 28 doubles, 22 home runs, 69 RBI and 3.5 WAR while winning three straight Gold Glove Awards. It was his defensive work that led to the Orioles shifting a young Manny Machado to third base at the onset of his MLB career.

In the end, that impressive four-year peak with the Orioles and some solid seasons in Milwaukee are not enough for him to be a serious Hall of Fame candidate, but for a brief time, he was one of the best two-way shortstops in baseball.

6. SP R.A. Dickey

R.A. Dickey Alex Trautwig/Getty Images

Stats: 300 GS, 120-118, 4.04 ERA (103 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP, 1,477 K, 2,073.2 IP

Accolades: 1x All-Star, 1x Cy Young, 2012 NL Cy Young

WAR: 23.1

The No. 18 overall pick in the 1996 draft, R.A. Dickey took one of the more interesting paths to MLB success we've seen in recent years.

After struggling with a 5.72 ERA in 266 innings with the Texas Rangers to begin his big-league career, Dickey reinvented himself as a knuckleball pitcher. After one-year stints with the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins, he caught on with the New York Mets and pitched his way into the team's starting rotation.

Everything clicked in 2012 when he finished 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 230 strikeouts in 233.2 innings to win NL Cy Young honors at the age of 37. He was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays that offseason and spent five more seasons as a solid innings-eater before calling it quits following his age-42 campaign.

He doesn't have the same career body of work as some of the other pitchers on this list, but the perseverance he showed to reinvent himself as one of the best knuckleball pitchers of all-time is worthy of commendation.

5. OF Jayson Werth

Jayson Werth AP Photo/Henny Ray Abrams

Stats: 1,583 G, 117 OPS+, .267/.360/.455, 1,465 H, 229 HR, 799 RBI, 132 SB

Accolades: 1x All-Star, 1x WS winner

WAR: 29.2

A steady contributor throughout his MLB career, Jayson Werth had seven seasons with at least 3.0 WAR, including each of his four seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies where he won a World Series ring in 2009.

He slugged a career-high 36 home runs during that 2009 season while also earning his only All-Star selection, and the following year he had a 144 OPS+ with 46 doubles, 27 home runs and 85 RBI in a contract year.

That performance earned him a seven-year, $126 million deal from the Washington Nationals in free agency. He never quite lived up to that massive payday, but he did post a 113 OPS+ while twice receiving MVP votes during what would be the final seven seasons of his career.

4. SP Matt Cain

Matt Cain Alex Trautwig/MLB via Getty Images

Stats: 331 GS, 104-118, 3.68 ERA (108 ERA+), 1.23 WHIP, 1,694 K, 2,085.2 IP

Accolades: 3x All-Star, 2x WS winner

WAR: 29.1

Matt Cain was part of an impressive wave of homegrown pitching talent along with Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Jonathan Sánchez, Sergio Romo and Brian Wilson that helped the San Francisco Giants win three World Series titles in five years.

From his first full season in the MLB rotation in 2006 through the 2013 season, he was one of the most durable pitchers in baseball, making at least 30 starts and working at least 180 innings every year while logging a 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 29.4 WAR.

He underwent surgery on his right elbow to remove bone chips midway through the 2014 season, causing him to miss the World Series that year as a result, and that was the beginning of a long series of injury issues. He went on to pitch just 364.2 more innings after his age-28 season.

3. SP Jered Weaver

Jered Weaver Leon Halip/Getty Images

Stats: 331 GS, 150-98, 3.63 ERA (111 ERA+), 1.19 WHIP, 1,621 K, 2,067.1 IP

Accolades: 3x All-Star

WAR: 34.6

Jered Weaver had a brief peak with the Los Angeles Angels where he was one of the best pitchers in baseball and a bona fide ace atop the team's starting rotation.

2010: 34 GS, 13-12, 3.01 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 233 K, 224.1 IP, 5th in Cy Young voting
2011: 33 GS, 18-8, 2.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 198 K, 235.2 IP, 2nd in Cy Young voting
2012: 30 GS, 20-5, 2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 142 K, 188.2 IP, 3rd in Cy Young voting

He also had a few solid seasons on either side of that peak, and while he lacked the longevity to be a serious Hall of Fame contender, there's something to be said for a player who reached the pinnacle of the sport even if it was only for a short time.

The Long Beach State alum also holds the fun distinction of being one of just two cover athletes for the short-lived EA Sports NCAA Baseball video game.

2. SP John Lackey

John Lackey Al Bello/Getty Images

Stats: 446 GS, 188-147, 3.92 ERA (110 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP, 2,294 K, 2,840.1 IP

Accolades: 1x All-Star, 3x WS winner

WAR: 37.3

John Lackey was introduced to the baseball world when he started Game 7 of the 2002 World Series and tossed five innings of four-hit, one-run ball to pick up the win as a 23-year-old rookie.

He would go on to be one of the most effective postseason pitchers of his era, logging a 3.44 ERA in 144 career playoff innings while winning two more World Series rings with the Boston Red Sox in 2013 and Chicago Cubs in 2016.

He topped 180 innings an impressive 10 times, including in his age-37 season with the Cubs when he helped shore up the rotation as a key free-agent signing ahead of their World Series run. The 6'6" right-hander was never a truly elite starter, but he was a rock-solid middle-of-the-rotation workhorse whose resume is elevated by his postseason contributions.

1. CF Torii Hunter

Bruce Kluckhohn/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Stats: 2,372 G, 110 OPS+, .277/.331/.461, 2,452 H, 353 HR, 1,391 RBI, 195 SB

Accolades: 5x All-Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger

WAR: 50.7

It does not look like the third time will be a charm for Torii Hunter.

After receiving 9.5 percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot in 2021, he saw that number shrink to 5.3 percent last year. Now he appears to be in serious danger of falling off the ballot with just 2.4 percent support through 42.4 percent of known ballots.

With Chili Davis, Dave Parker, Dwight Evans, Luis Gonzalez and Joe Carter included on his list of career Similarity Scores on Baseball Reference, it's clear he fits solidly into the top-tier of Hall of Very Good outfielders.

To go along with his nine Gold Glove Awards and countless highlight reel plays in the outfield, he also ranks among the top 100 all-time in doubles (498, 66th), home runs (353, 93rd), RBI (1,391, 80th), total bases (4,087, 82nd) and extra-base hits (890, 70th).

In truth, he's the only player on this entire list with a case for Hall of Fame votes, so it's fitting that he is the only one who has received any to this point.

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.

   

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