Shifting MLB's 2023 Playoff Races with These 7 Trades

The gap between the haves and the have-nots in Major League Baseball seems to grow wider by the year—and not just because New York Mets owner Steve Cohen is spending like there's no tomorrow and has a 2023 payroll more than 8.5 times that of the Oakland A's.

But it would only take a handful of trades to shift the balance of power and introduce a few new teams to the list of 2023 World Series contenders.

Unfortunately, there's nothing remotely realistic we can do to make Oakland a contender for this season. The Nationals, Reds and Royals are also looking like dead weight for at least another year.

There are a handful of teams who could take a big step forward—either into the playoff conversation or into the upper echelon of World Series candidates—with just one trade.

The Trade: Kansas City sends CF Michael A. Taylor to Milwaukee for OF Hedbert Perez

I've done a lot of "Might Milwaukee trade Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff?" theorizing this offseason, but let's pivot to the Brewers as a buyer.

Because after Milwaukee traded Hunter Renfroe and let Andrew McCutchen return to the Pittsburgh Pirates, its outfield situation is looking a little bleak.

The Brewers do still have a very expensive Christian Yelich for another six years in left field, and their farm system is top-heavy with outfielders. But in 2023, is rookie Garrett Mitchell ready to be the everyday center fielder? Is Tyrone Taylor really the answer in right field? Is Jesse Winker even playable in the outfield with his glove/range?

They could use an inexpensive stopgap solution, which is why they signed third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson to a one-year, $3.5 million deal this week. But they should still look into acquiring Michael A. Taylor from Kansas City.

Taylor has one $4.5 million season left on his contract before he'll hit free agency, and that's a small price to pay for an excellent glove in center, as well as some power at the dish and some speed on the basepaths.

He only hit .254 with nine home runs and four stolen bases last season, but he still ranked second on the Royals in Baseball Reference WAR because of his impact on defense.

If the Brew Crew is darn sure about Mitchell in center this season, great for them. But given the way Lorenzo Cain completely imploded and left them to scramble in center pretty much all season, having too many outfielders wouldn't be the worst thing.

On the Royals' side of the equation, shedding $4.5 million in salary and adding a decent outfield prospect seems like a no-brainer. And Milwaukee has so many outfield prospects that it wouldn't hurt to part with one to improve the defense.

The Trade: Miami sends RHP Pablo López to San Diego for SS Jackson Merrill

The San Diego Padres signed former New York Mets reliever Seth Lugo to a two-year, $15 million deal this offseason.

But what if the guy who has made just 12 starts over the past half-decade is unable to make a seamless transition back to the starting rotation?

And what is San Diego's plan for 2024 after it loses Yu Darvish and Blake Snell to free agency?

Trading for two years' worth of Pablo López could be an answer to both problems.

If Lugo pans out as a starter and the Padres need to roll with a six-man rotation while healthy, so be it. The Padres were using a six-man rotation in 2022 before Snell even made his season debut in mid-May, and they probably wouldn't mind letting 36-year-old Darvish and stretching-his-arm-back-out Lugo get a little extra rest between starts here and there.

And though it's a small sample size that probably doesn't mean anything, López has fared well against both the Dodgers (3.00 ERA in 15.0 IP) and Giants (2.10 ERA in 30.0 IP) in his career.

Miami isn't just going to give López away, though.

Because of Miami's surplus of starting pitching, López has been one of the most talked-about trade targets of the past calendar year. But he hasn't gone anywhere yet, because the Marlins reportedly had been asking for players such as Gleyber Torres from the Yankees or Luis Arraez from the Twins.

But it's time for Miami to face facts: It's not competing in the 2023 NL East, and probably not in 2024, either. Trading López for a top-100 prospect who would be under team control through at least 2029 makes more sense than trying to get a position player who is hitting free agency either the same year as López or one year later.

And with Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ha-Seong Kim all theoretically on the roster through at least the next four years (Bogaerts and Tatis for much longer than that), the Padres can certainly afford to part with shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill.

The Trade: Cincinnati sends 1B/DH Joey Votto and $14 million to Baltimore for LHP Drew Rom

Ideally, the Baltimore Orioles would also make a trade for a starting pitcher. However, if rookie Grayson Rodriguez is as good as advertised, if John Means can return from Tommy John surgery early in the season, if Dean Kremer and Austin Voth can build on a strong 2022 campaign...they might be OK in that department.

They definitely need another bat, though, as it presently looks like the plan at DH is some combination of Franchy Cordero and the inexperienced Kyle Stowers.

Preferably, it will be an experienced hitter who can provide some clubhouse leadership to what is otherwise a mighty young lineup. (The only hitters on the roster over age 28 are light-hitting, 31-year-old second baseman Adam Frazier and backup catchers James McCann (32) and Anthony Bemboom (33).

And, well, Joey Votto is certainly experienced.

Among active players, only Miguel Cabrera has more plate appearances than 39-year-old Votto, who presumably could still play some first base when the O's want to give Ryan Mountcastle the occasional day off.

And by all accounts, Votto has always been a great clubhouse guy/fan favorite, even going to Reds games and interacting with fans at the stadium after his season-ending shoulder surgery last year.

Votto has a full no-trade clause, so he needs to want to go to Baltimore. And how much the O's are willing to give up to get him largely depends on how much of Votto's $25 million salary the Reds are willing to eat, because goodness knows Baltimore doesn't like to spend money.

But it could be a great fit for a team that won 83 games last season.

The Trade: Detroit sends SS Javier Báez to Boston for IF David Hamilton

As if it wasn't bad enough that the Boston Red Sox lost SS Xander Bogaerts as a free agent without signing anyone to replace him, now second baseman/shortstop Trevor Story is expected to miss most of the 2023 season after undergoing a modified Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow.

As things stand, Boston's Opening Day middle infield situation is possibly looking like Christian Arroyo at second and Enrique Hernández at shortstop with rookie Enmanuel Valdez as the backup at both positions.

Not exactly an All-Star setup there, but the Red Sox aren't just going to throw in the towel on this season before it even begins.

Maybe they'll sign José Iglesias and/or Elvis Andrus rather than trying to swing a trade to address the issue, but wheeling and dealing with Detroit for Javier Báez sure looks like the best option for trying to climb out of the AL East basement.

Báez has five years and $120 million left on the contract he signed with Detroit last offseason. Maybe. It could be just one year for $22 million if he exercises his opt-out clause after 2023 to reenter free agency. Which means he is in the situation with Detroit that Bogaerts was in with Boston one year ago.

Either way, it's an investment Boston could be willing to make—provided the Red Sox aren't one of the 10 teams Báez has on his partial no-trade clause.

In a perfect world for the Red Sox, he goes to Boston, has a great season to help get the team to the postseason and then dives back into the free agency pool just in time for top prospect Marcelo Mayer to be ready to start at shortstop on Opening Day 2024 while Story returns to play second.

David Hamilton isn't a top prospect, so all the Tigers are really getting in this proposed trade is salary relief. But after Detroit's waited for the past few years to finally get out from under Miguel Cabrera's contract and possibly vie for a postseason spot again, it would be quite the bummer if Báez had another poor season in 2023 and let the club pay him $98 million for replacement-level production over the subsequent four years.

The Trade: Boston sends RHP Matt Barnes to Pittsburgh for OF Travis Swaggerty

For all the talk over the past eight or so months about the possibility of Pittsburgh trading star center fielder Bryan Reynolds, you might not have noticed that the Pirates were much more active in free agency than usual, signing Andrew McCutchen, Rich Hill, Carlos Santana, Austin Hedges, Vince Velasquez and Jarlín García each to one-year deals in the combined amount of $30.375 million.

Compared to the Mets, Yankees and other big spenders, that's a drop in the bucket. But it's more than twice the $14.1 million Pittsburgh spent on free agents last year, which was already triple the $4.5 million the club spent the previous year.

The Pirates have also made a bunch of trades, bringing in Ji-Man Choi, Connor Joe, Dauri Moreta and a handful of prospects.

By Steel City's frugal standards, they're going for it in 2023.

So, let's see if we can help them out a little bit.

The bullpen is where the Pirates could really use a makeover. David Bednar did a more than adequate job as the closer, but the combination of Wil Crowe, Duane Underwood Jr. and Chris Stratton trying to protect leads in the seventh and eighth innings was brutal.

Jarlín García was a much-needed left-handed acquisition, but perhaps they could also swing a deal for Boston's Matt Barnes?

After signing his two-year extension, Barnes was a disaster from August 2021 through May 2022, logging 28.2 innings pitched with an 8.48 ERA. But he turned a corner after a two-month IL stint, posting a 1.59 ERA over his final 24 appearances last season.

Whether as the closer or the right-handed setup guy, he could be extremely valuable in Pittsburgh.

As with the "Joey Votto to Baltimore" proposal, what Pittsburgh is willing to give up will depend on Boston's willingness to retain salary. Barnes is owed $8.4 million this season—which would make him the second-highest paid player on Pittsburgh's roster—and carries an $8 million club option with a $2.3 million buyout for 2024.

If Boston eats the whole thing, maybe the Pirates will part with a higher-tier prospect, such as right-hander Mike Burrows. But we'll assume no money is involved in the deal, and Boston gets 2018 first-round pick Travis Swaggerty, who could be a contributor in the outfield this season.

The Trade: Washington sends LHP Patrick Corbin and $35 million to Chicago Cubs for IF Chase Strumpf

Because of his contract and his recent poor production, Patrick Corbin might be the most untradeable player in the majors.

But let's give it the ol' college try anyway.

Corbin is owed $24.4 million in 2023, followed by a gargantuan $35.4 million in 2024. That's just a shade under $60 million for two years of a southpaw who has led the majors in both losses and earned runs allowed in each of the past two seasons.

You know what, though?

He's durable. Only Gerrit Cole (173) has made more starts dating back to the beginning of 2017 than Corbin's 171. He's still relatively young (33). He was pretty darn good back in 2018 and '19. And he could be a good fit with the Cubs, who seem to be trying to assemble an entire rotation of guys who would be No. 3 or No. 4 starters on a playoff-caliber roster.

Washington would need to retain a substantial portion of Corbin's contract to generate any interest in the trade market.

But, hey, who loves paying players after they're gone more than the Nationals do?

There's already $10 million of deferred money in Corbin's contract, plus another $90 million due to Max Scherzer, an eventual $80 million in deferred money owed to Stephen Strasburg and a combined $12 million still owed to Jon Lester, Brad Hand and Rafael Soriano.

What's another $35 million for Corbin to pitch elsewhere if it actually saves the franchise $25 million?

Even at $12.5 million per year, though, Corbin isn't exactly a hot commodity. One middling infield prospect might be the best Washington can get for him. But this is all about salary relief and about giving Corbin the opportunity to pitch for a team that might actually win 70 games this season.

The Trade: Washington sends RHP Carl Edwards Jr. and RHP Erasmo Ramírez to Arizona for RHP Joe Elbis

Per FanGraphs, the Arizona Diamondbacks had the worst bullpen in the majors in 2022. But all they've done to address the issue is sign Miguel Castro, who has a career 4.12 ERA while bouncing between five franchises. They also let a couple of free agents walk, most notably Ian Kennedy.

The Washington Nationals could provide some legitimate, inexpensive help, though.

Both Carl Edwards Jr. and Erasmo Ramírez posted sub-3.00 ERAs in the nation's capital in 2022, and they are on one-year deals for the combined amount of $3.25 million in 2023 ahead of free agency.

Neither one figures to vie for the closing gig in Arizona, but improving the middle relief is a must if the D-backs want to have any hope of finishing ahead of the Giants and staying within shouting distance of the Dodgers and Padres.

Moreover, neither pitcher in his 30s figures to be part of Washington's long-term plans, and no one expects the Nats to compete in this year's NL East.

So, why not turn those bullpen arms into a prospect while also opening the door for a couple of young pitchers to get an extended audition in 2023?

Joe Elbis is an intriguing, risky prospect for Arizona who missed most of 2022 with a shoulder injury. He just turned 20 and is probably at least another two years away from even having a cup of coffee in the majors, but that should be agreeable to a franchise that is probably at least another two years away from even sniffing the postseason.

Salary information via Spotrac unless otherwise noted. Stats via Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.