The only surefire, foolproof, can't-miss prediction for Shohei Ohtani for 2023 is that he's going to loom larger over Major League Baseball than ever before.

As the only true two-way star in MLB's history, Ohtani already looms plenty large enough already. He handily won the American League MVP in 2021, and he was so dominant again in 2022 that even 62 home runs wasn't enough for Aaron Judge to claim unanimous MVP honors.

What could nonetheless make '23 extra special for Ohtani is that he could be involved in not one, but two ultra-high-profile transactions.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com is hardly the only one thinking that the Los Angeles Angels might trade their 28-year-old superstar this summer. They've endured seven straight losing seasons and he's ticketed for free agency at year's end, so the stars are on track to align.

As for what the open market could deem Ohtani to be worth, Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Jeff Passan of ESPN and, most recently, his colleague Alden González have all thrown $500 million out there.

We're not time-travelers, so we can't say with 100 percent certainty what will happen with Ohtani this year. But since there isn't much else to occupy our time during this final stretch toward spring training, we don't see any harm in venturing some guesses.

Not Saying Shohei Ohtani Can Get Even Better, But...

Let's start with an easy one: 2023 will be Ohtani's best season yet.

Maybe this is a bold take, given that he wouldn't seem to have much room to improve. Across the last two seasons, he was 52 percent better than the average hitter and 55 percent better than the average pitcher. Statistically, he's like if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Carlos Rodón were Tuvix'd into a single lifeform.

Surely working against Ohtani is his potential for injury. It's high even in the best of times, given that he participates in the most batter-pitcher matchups of any player. Yet it's about to be even higher, as his participation for Team Japan in the 2023 World Baseball Classic will only heighten his exposure to injury.

If Ohtani can stay healthy, however, he has clear routes to better numbers on both sides of the ball.

On the mound, Ohtani is already know for his 100 mph fastball, devastating splitter and equally devastating slider, but not so much for his sinker. Yet that'll change in a hurry in 2023 if he keeps incorporating it like he did at the end of 2022:

Ohtani had a 2.67 ERA through the end of August, and then a 1.18 ERA in September and October as his sinker overtook his four-seam fastball in usage. The two pitches' run values for the month should be his cue to carry the experiment over.

As for Ohtani's offensive outlook, about the only thing a guy with 80 home runs, 37 stolen bases and 168 walks across the last two seasons can ask for is more hits. And he should get them courtesy of MLB's new regulations on defensive shifts.

It's not easy to quantify how many knocks Ohtani lost to the infield shifts across '21 and '22, but it may be as many as 26. That's how many batted balls with better than a 50 percent chance of going for hits he lost to shortstops and second basemen in shifted formations.

Add those into Ohtani's record, and his average over the last two seasons leaps from .265 to .289. Andrew Benintendi territory, basically.

The best-case scenario for Ohtani in 2023 includes an ERA even lower than the 2.33 mark with which he finished 2022, as well as an average around .300 to go with 40 home runs. As expectations go, it would be absurd if it wasn't so plausible.

Not Saying Ohtani Is Destined to Get Traded, But...

Contrary to 2021 and 2022—wherein the Angels lost 85 and 89 games respectively—Ohtani might actually have some help this time around.

They may not have made any seismic moves, yet the Angels look like one of the winter's most improved teams after scoring Tyler Anderson for their rotation, Carlos Estévez for their bullpen and Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela for their offense.

Even prior to adding Anderson, the Angels could have had high hopes for their rotation after it posted the AL's second-best ERA after the '22 All-Star break. Their pen also finished finished strong, and they're onto something in thinking that Estévez has closer-caliber stuff.

There's more volatility in the Angels offense, but it could prove to be about as star-studded as the Beastie Boys' "Make Some Noise" video if Renfroe, Drury and Urshela supply good power and Mike Trout (back), Anthony Rendon (wrist), Taylor Ward (shoulder/neck) and Jared Walsh (shoulder) stay healthy.

There is, however, a gap between what the 2023 Angels could be and what they're likely to be. FanGraphs only projects them as the fourth-best team in the AL West behind the Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers.

That's not exactly a prophecy for a playoff run that spares Ohtani from midseason trade chatter. And besides, it would be disingenuous if we got off the "they're gonna trade him" train. At least for now, we're all aboard.

If the Angels do put Ohtani and what's left of his $30 million salary on the block, every contender with deep pockets and talent to spare will surely be interested. Speculatively, we're talking the New York Mets, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres and, probably above all, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers already seem to be positioning themselves for a run at Ohtani in free agency, though they'll have more than enough young talent to pursue him in a midseason trade if possible. And as hard as it is to imagine Angels owner Arte Moreno green-lighting a trade of Ohtani to the Dodgers, he likely won't still be the owner come the trade deadline. A sale of the team, potentially for as much as $2.5 billion, is nigh.

Assuming Ohtani does go to Los Angeles proper, the trade could benefit him as much as the Dodgers. Being disqualified from a qualifying offer would boost his free-agent value by default, and he'd also have a chance to finally prove himself in the playoffs. And he surely would, as his excellent performances as both a hitter (1.047 OPS) and as a pitcher (.477 OPS) over the last two seasons hint at a very real clutch gene.

Not Saying Shohei Ohtani Is Going to Get $500 Million, But...

Even if he was sans playoff bona fides and had ties to draft-pick compensation from rejecting the qualifying offer, $500 million still wouldn't be an outrageous target for Ohtani.

It's best thought of as $250 million for two players. And over, say, a 10-year term, that's only $25 million per player. There are already 30 guys making that much annually, and relatively few of them are as good as either Ohtani the pitcher or Ohtani the hitter.

And after what's transpired this winter, would it really be a surprise if the market doled out such a long commitment? Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts both got 11-year deals off their age-29 seasons, while Judge got a nine-year pact off his age-30 campaign. Whether you want to chalk it up to accounting tricks, broader economic forces or other factors, it's the dawn of a new era of long-term deals in MLB.

Regarding which teams figure to be in on Ohtani next winter, it seems unwise to count the Angels out no matter what happens this season. Reeling him back in might be as simple as the club's new ownership making him a competitive offer, though promises to do whatever necessary to fix the "negative impression" he got last year would surely be welcome.

The competition will be there, however. And, goodness, will it be stiff.

Per González, agents and executives are tabbing the Dodgers, Mets and San Francisco Giants as favorites for Ohtani in free agency. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Padres will be "all-in." The Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs have also been mentioned.

This far out, it's obviously hard to bank on any outcome. But at the same time, does anyone actually want to bet against the Mets as the inevitable winners of the Ohtani sweepstakes?

In Billy Eppler, they have a general manager who has already won a major Ohtani sweepstake. They also have an owner in Steve Cohen who clearly isn't afraid to pull from his $17.5 billion fortune. The Mets are slated to open 2023 with a $350.4 million payroll, and that's not even counting inevitable luxury-tax penalties.

So, there you have it. We're predicting that Ohtani's 2023 will see him have a career year while suiting up for the Angels, Dodgers and finally the Mets, who will lure him with a bag containing half-a-billion dollars.

Chances we're wrong about any of this, if not all of it? Oh, they're high. But even if we wanted to offer more lukewarm takes, Ohtani simply doesn't inspire such things.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.