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Storied College Football Programs That Will Struggle in 2023

Morgan Moriarty

College football has many storied programs. Alabama, USC, Notre Dame and Ohio State are among the all-time leaders in wins and championships.

Most storied programs have bright futures in 2023, but some will struggle. First, let's dive into the criteria to determine which programs are storied. (For the sake of consistency, we've used the same criteria over the last few years for this story.)

First, 25 FBS programs have at least 700 all-time wins, per Sports Reference. We included all of them for starters. And we can't leave out Florida State and Miami, which joined the FBS in 1954 and 1936.

Next, we included teams in this ranking of the top 25 programs that was released in February as well as from ESPN's 50 best college football programs list released in 2019. They both included Washington and Michigan State, so we were up to 29 teams.

Lastly, we eliminated the storied programs that were in USA Today's way-too-early Top 25 for the 2023 season.

Unlike the last couple of years, there are a lot more programs on the list. This year, we have 13 teams. This is because a handful of programs reached the 700-win mark and traditional powerhouses such as Florida, Miami and Texas A&M had down years in 2022.

Let's dive in!

Author's note: Last year's version incorrectly omitted Army and Minnesota, both of which had eclipsed 700 wins.

Army and Navy

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Both Army and Navy are newcomers to this list, thanks to both of them reaching the 700-win mark. The Black Knights (707 all-time wins and Midshipmen (700 all-time wins) are coming off a down year.

Navy had a third straight losing season in 2022, finishing 4-8 for a second consecutive season, and lost to Army for the first time since 2020. The Midshipmen then made a surprising move at the end of the season in moving on from longtime head coach Ken Niumatalolo.

Over 16 seasons, Niumatalolo became Navy's winningest head coach in school history, compiling a 109-83 record. Navy also won six bowl games under Niumatalolo, most recently winning the Liberty Bowl over Kansas State in 2019.

Navy's new head coach will be longtime Midshipmen defensive coordinator Brian Newberry. Newberry, who has been in Annapolis since 2019, has led Navy to a top-50 finish in total defense every season since his arrival.

Army finished 6-6 after beating Navy. But thanks to the Black Knights failing to get six wins over FBS opponents, they were unable to participate in a bowl game. Previously, Army had played in a bowl five out of its last six seasons.

Reason to believe for Navy: There's a reason Newberry was given the job. If his success defensively can translate to the team, the Midshipmen will be in a good spot.

Reason to doubt for Navy: First-year head coaches are typically expected to struggle as they start building their programs. It'll be especially tough to replace a coach that was there as the head coach since 2008. Although Navy's 2023 schedule isn't 100 percent set yet, it includes a matchup against Notre Dame in Week Zero in Dublin, Ireland.

Reason to believe for Army: Except for Jeff Monken's second season at West Point in 2015, the Black Knights have put together winning seasons following a year at .500 or worse (8-5 in 2016 and 9-3 and 2020).

Reason to doubt for Army: Army's 2023 schedule looks incredibly tough, including games against UTSA, Syracuse, Boston College, Troy, LSU and Coastal Carolina. All of those teams except BC made it to a bowl game last season, and three of them in UTSA, Troy and LSU either played in or won their conference title games.

ACC Teams Part I: Miami, Georgia Tech

Mario Cristobal Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Miami and Georgia Tech were both on this list last offseason. The Hurricanes finished 5-7 in Mario Cristobal's first season in Coral Gables. Georgia Tech finished with the same record and fired head coach Geoff Collins early in the season. Tech associate head coach and former Yellow Jackets offensive lineman Brent Key was named the interim coach. After leading Tech to a 4-4 mark as the interim, he was named the permanent head coach.

Reason to believe for Miami: QB Tyler Van Dyke should be more healthy this season. Van Dyke, Miami's starting quarterback the last two seasons, missed time late in the season due to a shoulder injury. The Canes also currently have the nation's No. 4 recruiting class for 2023, including two 5-star offensive tackles in Francis Mauigoa and Samson Okunlola who could see the field immediately.

Reason to doubt: Miami will lose a lot of talent on defense this offseason, including defensive linemen Mitchell Agude, Jordan Miller and Elijah Roberts. The Canes secondary loses cornerback Tyrique Stevenson but is in good shape otherwise.

Reason to believe in GT: There was a lot of optimism surrounding Key's interim tenure, which made the decision to hire him permanently pretty easy. His team's most impressive win came in Week 12 when it overcame a 17-0 deficit to upset then-No. 13 North Carolina on the road. The Yellow Jackets beat then-No. 24 Pitt earlier in the season, as well. Key being a GT alum who likely won't jump ship if a bigger offer comes calling could be the stability that GT needs in Atlanta.

Reason to doubt: Geoff Collins went 10-28 over four seasons with the Yellow Jackets, despite having previous head coaching experience at Temple. It's been difficult for Tech to achieve success following longtime triple-option head coach Paul Johnson's departure. For a first-time head coach, that might be even more challenging.

ACC Teams Part II: Pitt, Virginia Tech

Pat Narduzzi Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Virginia Tech struggled significantly under first-year head coach Brent Pry. The Hokies lost seven straight before upsetting Liberty 23-22 in their last regular-season game. Pitt finished 9-4 with a bowl victory over UCLA in the Sun Bowl. But the Panthers missed out on the ACC title game, losing conference games to Georgia Tech, Louisville and UNC.

Reason to believe in Virginia Tech: The Hokies' 2023 recruiting class shows some optimism. It's the highest-ranked class nationally (34th) since 2019. It also includes some big-name transfers, including former Baylor QB Kyron Drones and receiver Ali Jennings, an Old Dominion transfer.

Reason to doubt: VT's schedule looks pretty challenging, including out-of conference games against Purdue and at Rutgers and ACC road games vs. Florida State and Louisville. The Hokies also open the season against in-state foe Old Dominion, who upset VT last year.

Reason to believe in Pitt: Pitt won the ACC for the first time in school history in 2021. Although the Panthers finished second in the Coastal Division in 2022, the Panthers will massively benefit from the ACC scraping divisions in 2023. Under the new scheduling format, which preserves traditional ACC rivalries, Pitt will get annual games against Boston College, Syracuse and Virginia Tech. Those three teams have combined to win just 38 percent of their Power Five games in the College Football Playoff era.

Reason to doubt: The Panthers will have to replace several key playmakers in 2023. Starting quarterback Kedon Slovis hit the transfer portal once again and is headed to BYU. Starting running back Israel Abanikanda is headed to the NFL. So is leading receiver Jared Wayne, who had 1,063 yards receiving and five touchdowns last season, as well as Pitt's leading tackler SirVocea Dennis. 2023 looks like a rebuilding year at Pitt with all its talent going elsewhere.

Big Ten Teams: Nebraska, Michigan State and Minnesota

Matt Rhule AP Photo/Rebecca S. Gratz

The Big Ten has been ruled by Ohio State and Michigan for most of the playoff era. That will remain true once again, but stories programs Nebraska, Michigan State and Minnesota will try to keep up.

Nebraska fired Scott Frost hours after the Cornhuskers lost to Georgia Southern at home in October. To replace him, the Cornhuskers hired former Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Rhule. Prior to his stint in the NFL, Rhule went 47-43 as the head coach at Temple and Baylor from 2013-19.

Michigan State went from an 11-2 season in 2021 to a 5-7 mark barely a year after it signed head coach Mel Tucker to a 10-year contract extension.

Minnesota is coming off back-to-back nine-win seasons under P.J. Fleck, but the Gophers haven't won the Big Ten West yet.

Reason to believe in Nebraska: Rhule was a great college coach and has experience turning things around. Before he arrived at Temple, the Owls had reached 10 wins just once. Rhule led them to two straight 10-win seasons in 2015 and 2016, including an AAC title in 2016. Baylor went 1-11 in Rhule's first season and then went 7-6 and 11-3.

Reason to doubt Nebraska: Nebraska hasn't had a winning season since 2016. A number of players have hit the transfer portal, and the schedule includes games at Colorado, Illinois, Michigan State and Wisconsin with home games versus Michigan and Purdue. It's hard to imagine the Cornhuskers will reach .500 in Rhule's first season, but maybe he learned a few things from the NFL.

Reason to believe in Michigan State: Tucker has yet to have consecutive losing seasons in East Lansing. Sparty is also returning several key players, including quarterback Payton Thorne, receivers Keon Coleman and Tre Mosley as well as defensive lineman Khris Bogle.

Reason to doubt Michigan State: Despite this season's 5-7 mark, Tucker said during the early signing period last month that he would not make changes to the coaching staff. If MSU's struggles continue, there will likely have to be changes.

Reason to believe in Minnesota: Before USC and UCLA arrive in 2024, the Big Ten will keep its divisions. That gives the Gophers a great chance to win the Big Ten West for the first time since it has been down in recent years.

Reason to doubt Minnesota: Fleck may have hit his ceiling at Minnesota. The Gophers' best record was 11-2 in 2019, but even then, they failed to win the division.

SEC Teams Part I: Arkansas, Auburn

Sam Pittman Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Arkansas is coming off a surprisingly bad season. After going 9-4 with an Outback Bowl win over Penn State in 2021, Arkansas regressed, finishing 7-6 with a Liberty Bowl win over Kansas. It was disappointing, especially considering the Razorbacks had just three SEC road games against Mississippi State, Auburn and Missouri.

Auburn, meanwhile, is on its third head coach in four seasons. The Tigers fired Bryan Harsin after less than two seasons on the Plains. To replace him, Auburn hired Hugh Freeze from Liberty despite backlash from fans over Freeze's conduct. He was fired by Ole Miss after records showed he used a university-issued phone to call an escort service. And in July, he sent Twitter direct messages to Chelsea Andrews, a plaintiff in a lawsuit filed against Liberty for its handling of sexual assault allegations.

Reason to believe in Arkansas: KJ Jefferson is returning. The Razorbacks' star quarterback, who threw for 5,324 yards with 45 touchdowns and nine interceptions over the last two seasons, is the heart and soul of the team. Not to mention he's had a combined 1,304 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground.

Reason to doubt Arkansas: Arkansas is losing a ton of players on defense, including linebackers Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool. The Razorbacks have also had 10 defensive backs enter the transfer portal, including team captains Simeon Blair and Jalen Catalon. As good as Jefferson is, Arkansas will need a lot of help on defense if it wants to compete inside the SEC West.

Reason to believe in Auburn: Freeze's first seasons at Arkansas State, Ole Miss and Liberty all resulted in winning records. He went 10-3 with Arkansas State in 2011, 7-6 with a BBVA Compass Bowl win with Ole Miss in 2012 and 8-5 with a Cure Bowl win with Liberty in 2019.

Reason to doubt Auburn: The schedule is brutal, including road games against Cal, Texas A&M, LSU and Arkansas. The Tigers might be underdogs in all those games. That games against Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Alabama are at home will help, but it's hard to imagine Auburn will be favored in any of those matchups, either.

SEC Teams Part II: Florida, Texas A&M

Jimbo Fisher AP Photo/Sam Craft

Things went about as bad as they possibly could in College Station in 2022. The Aggies finished with a losing record for the first time since 2009 and missed a bowl game for the first time since 2008. TAMU also had a six-game losing streak for the first time since 1972.

It wasn't much better for Billy Napier's first season in Gainesville. The Gators went 6-7 with a loss to Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl. Florida also lost to every one of its rivals in Tennessee, LSU, Georgia and Florida State.

Reason to believe in Texas A&M: Jimbo Fisher has had only two losing seasons in his career, with FSU in 2017 and last season. It's hard to imagine a repeat, especially since we could start seeing players from the No. 1 2022 recruiting class hit the field.

Reason to doubt Texas A&M: Texas A&M has had a whopping 28 players enter the transfer portal, including a handful from that 2022 class. Two of the most recent departures are big names in cornerback Smoke Bouie and defensive lineman Anthony Lucas, who have committed to Georgia and USC.

Reason to believe in Florida: Napier made his biggest jump in terms of wins and losses from Year 1 to Year 2. At Louisiana, the Ragin' Cajuns went 7-7 with a Cure Bowl loss in his first season. During his second season, Louisiana finished 11-3 with a LendingTree Bowl victory, marking a program record for wins at the time.

Reason to doubt Florida: This looks like yet another rebuilding year for Florida with how many players are departing to the NFL draft or entering the transfer portal. Quarterback Anthony Richardson is headed to the draft, and the prized recruit from the 2023 class who was expected to replace him—Jaden Rashada—has yet to enroll, reportedly because of issues with the NIL deal he signed.

Florida's second-leading receiver Justin Shorter is headed to the NFL, as are leading tacklers Rashad Torrence II and Trey Dean III. Running back Nay'Quan Wright, linebackers Chief Borders and David Reese and safety Donovan McMillon are the biggest names who hit the portal.

   

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