Peyton Bowen is going to be a star for Oklahoma. Credit: 247Sports

Way-Too-Early Predictions for 2023 Breakout College Football Freshmen

Brad Shepard

Picking breakout freshmen in college football is never easy, because predicting who's going to navigate the immense learning curve is a crapshoot.

It can take time for even the most talented players to click. Sometimes, though, guys prove they're better than their ranking right off the bat. Getting to school early and going through a spring practice before your first season helps, but it's not essential.

In order to make this list, you've got to be an incoming true freshman with a clear(ish) path to playing time, an elite prospect and signed with your college destination. Also, while there may be numerous players on a team who could see the field early, only one representative per team is present on this list.

Thus, while Alabama's class is legit and full of studs who could play right away, only one is on the list. Additionally, there are outstanding quarterback prospects like Nico Iamaleava and Jackson Arnold who are blocked by talented incumbents like Joe Milton III and Dillon Gabriel, so they just missed the list.

But who made it? Let's take a look and a collection of players who could be household names sooner rather than later.

Cedric Baxter Jr., Texas Running Back

Credit: 247Sports

There's not a better fit-to-need superstar prospect in this entire class than 5-star running back Cedric Baxter Jr. heading to Texas.

The 6'1", 215-pound Orlando native has special all-around ability. He's not only heading to Austin with a remarkable group of prospects like Arch Manning, Anthony Hill, Johntay Cook II and others, but he's also got a wide-open path to playing time.

With Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson off to the NFL, Baxter may just find himself in the mix to start.

He showed out all week at the Under Armour All-American Game, producing at the highest level against the best in the nation. He displays power, speed, has another gear when he gets to the second level and can catch passes, too.

There are plenty of excellent running backs in this class like Justice Haynes and Rueben Owens, but Baxter does everything well and has the highest ceiling of them all. He's going to be a superstar in this Longhorns offense, and it looks like he's the next great runner.

Coach Steve Sarkisian is going to have a blast getting the ball in Baxter's hands right away.

Micah Bell, Notre Dame Cornerback

Credit: 247Sports

Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman knows defense from his time as a player and as a highly successful defensive coordinator at Cincinnati and Notre Dame. Prospects on that side of the ball want to play for him, and the Fighting Irish hit on some big ones in this cycle.

Linebacker Drayk Bowen is a tackling machine, and he easily could have made this list. But the most college-ready Irish signee with a path to reps is Micah Bell.

The 5'11", 170-pound Houston native is coming all the way to South Bend from the Lone Star State, and he's not coming to stand on the sideline.

Notre Dame has a spot opposite Benjamin Harrison, and Bell can fill it. He has exceptional speed and ball skills and can do a lot of things well. He played running back in high school, so he knows what to do when he gets the ball, too.

Another place Bell could impact the game right away is as a kick and punt returner where he could be a home-run hitter right away.

It isn't easy for defensive backs to become guys everybody knows right away; you almost have to make some game-changing plays to do that. Bell, though, could be a quick-turn interception machine and a weapon in the return game, so he's a sleeper pick to shine.

Peyton Bowen, Oklahoma Safety

Credit: 247Sports

It's easy to focus on Peyton Bowen's drama-filled many flips during the early signing period and write him off as flaky, indecisive and a player without a direction.

Or, you know, you could just write him off as a high school kid struggling with the biggest decision of his life.

Cut him some slack. Despite a forgettable turn of events where he went from a Notre Dame commitment to an Oregon signee who didn't send his papers to Eugene and wound up joining Denton (Texas) Guyer teammate Jackson Arnold at Oklahoma, Bowen is a smart, superb player.

Once all that smoke cleared, the Sooners were the beneficiary of getting signed papers for one of the most college-ready defenders in the entire class. The 6'0", 185-pound back-end playmaker is a big-play machine who is all over the field.

While Arnold could push Dillon Gabriel under center because of his special arm talent, and stud edge-rusher Adepoju Adebawore is almost certain to get on the field and impact an OU defense needing players, Bowen is the most ready.

He's a heady leader who has a nose for the ball and can do a little bit of everything. He's ready now, and he's probably even more determined after being a little embarrassed by blundering the spotlight.

Zachariah Branch, USC Wide Receiver

Credit: 247Sports

To say Zachariah Branch has a clear path to playing time at USC is a reach, to say the least. But it's not a stretch to say the nation's top-rated receiver is too talented to keep off the field.

The 5'10", 172-pound explosive playmaker from Las Vegas' Bishop Gorman High School is going to get reps right away with the Trojans.

Nevermind they have Tahj Washington and Brenden Rice and Mario Williams and Kyle Ford. None of that matters. They also have Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams, so they're going to throw the ball a lot in Lincoln Riley's system.

Branch is going to carve a niche, and Riley is going to find a way to get him the football, much the way he did with Swiss Army knife, do-it-all freshman offensive star Raleek Brown in 2022 (402 total yards and six touchdowns on 58 touches).

Look for Branch to have about half as many touches as Brown, since he isn't a running back who takes handoffs. Instead, Branch can be a weapon in the return game and will be utilized in different ways to get him in space.

He will take some of the catches vacated by departing Jordan Addison. Will he post similar numbers to Washington, Rice or Williams? It wouldn't be surprising to see him right in the thick of being in the top-four of the rotation by the middle of the season.

His skill set is that elite.

Malachi Coleman, Nebraska Athlete

Credit: 247Sports

The Nebraska Cornhuskers and new coach Matt Rhule got massive news when Malachi Coleman decided to re-commit and sign to his hometown school.

He understandably took a wait-and-see approach once the Huskers decided to move on from interim coach Mickey Joseph, and despite being from Lincoln, he needed to see Rhule commit to recruiting him.

The new staff did that, and they now have a playmaker on their hands.

It's just a matter of where is Coleman going to be making plays? At 6'4", 190 pounds, he is a dynamic athlete and is also ridiculously fast for his size. He could play wide receiver, which feels like the most likely final destination.

Coleman also has the build to add 30-40 pounds and be a mismatch tight end with his speed and athleticism, much the way Ja'Tavian Sanders is with Texas after coming in from high school with the ability to play multiple positions. Sanders was much thicker than Coleman right away, though.

Some even think with his speed and athleticism, he has the frame to add weight and be an elite edge-rushing defensive end, but right now, it appears he's going to stick on offense and catch passes. They'll figure out his position early, and he is a major building block for the present and future.

It's going to be impossible to keep a player of his ilk off the field.

Caleb Downs, Alabama Safety

Credit: 247Sports

This could have been a slideshow full of "which Alabama signees have the ability to play right away," because that number is big for a class that is straight-up ridiculous on paper.

Coach Nick Saban's top-rated haul boasts guys like offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor, elite edge-rushers Keon Keeley, Yhonzae Pierre and Qua Russaw, defensive tackle James Smith and running back Justice Haynes. All of them could be stars in 2023.

But Caleb Downs perhaps has the highest upside mixed with the clearest path.

The nation's top-rated safety is 6'0", 190 pounds and has the pedigree you want; he's the younger brother of star North Carolina receiver Josh Downs and nephew of former UNC star DB Dre Bly.

Downs boasts the speed, athleticism and ball skills that could make him a starter on virtually every college team in the nation next year.

In an interview at the All-American Bowl, Josh told the television crew that his younger brother wanted to play for the best, and that's why he chose Saban. He is driven to be a star right away, and he's the closest to a can't-miss defensive back as we've seen in a long time.

He could have an even bigger impact on a quality defense than Georgia freshman Malaki Starks did this season. Look for a similar, escalating trajectory from Downs. He's a star right now.

JJ Kohl, Iowa State Quarterback

Credit: 247Sports

In a bowl-less season, there were plenty of downfalls for the Iowa State Cyclones. Some of the shine wore off coach Matt Campbell as the program watched postseason from their couches.

That isn't going to be allowed in Ames for long, despite the fact it's got to be one of the toughest places in the nation to win. Campbell has set high expectations, and don't be surprised if every position isn't up-for-grabs in '23.

That means Hunter Dekkers' quarterback spot, too. A year ago, he threw for more than 3,000 yards but just 19 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. He was too mistake-prone, and without Xavier Hutchinson, the Cyclones need weapons.

They struck gold with 6'7", 230-pound legacy JJ Kohl, who stayed true to his Iowa State commitment despite overtures from other programs around the nation. Dekkers isn't a bad player, but Kohl has an even higher upside than Brock Purdy. Why not give him a shot right now?

Michigan wanted Kohl to play in Ann Arbor. Auburn really tried to turn up the heat, especially when Hugh Freeze came on board. But Kohl (whose dad, Jamie, kicked for Iowa State and now runs Kohl's Kicking Camps) stayed true.

If he gets on the field, he'll prove too talented to take off it.

Dante Moore, UCLA Quarterback

Credit: 247Sports

Staying with the signal-callers here, it was the biggest news of the 2023 recruiting cycle when UCLA and coach Chip Kelly swooped in late and changed Dante Moore's mind.

The Michigan native was all set to move across the country and play for coach Dan Lanning's Oregon Ducks, but he instead signed with the Bruins, who will be moving to the Big Ten. Moore will be able to play some games closer to his home.

Boy, did Kelly get a great player.

The 6'2.5", 210-pound dart-thrower is special, and he was the big story at the All-American Game, flinging four touchdowns. He showed terrific arm strength, looked poised in the pocket and delivered strikes.

Simply put: He looks like the most college-ready quarterback in a class that may be the best ever.

With Dorian Thompson-Robinson off to the NFL, playing time is up for grabs in Brentwood. Ethan Garbers is already on campus and could factor into the mix. Kelly went out and got a transfer from Kent State in Collin Schlee who has a lot of Power Five potential.

But is either of those guys good enough to beat out Moore? The only real question is whether you want to rush him on the field. He's the most talented quarterback in the room, and he may be the guy in L.A. to take Caleb Williams' torch and carry it onward after the USC quarterback leaves for the NFL in '24.

Rueben Owens, Texas A&M Running Back

Credit: 247Sports

Once Scott Satterfield left Louisville for Cincinnati, one of the most puzzling commitments of the recruiting cycle changed his mind and flipped to a school that made a lot more sense in the long run.

It was a big deal when, in June 2022, 5'11", 190-pound 5-star El Campo, Texas, running back Rueben Owens decided he was committing to Louisville.

The Cardinals had a healthy NIL earlier than most programs and were impressing prospects and getting signees from all over the nation. But it isn't every day a star player from the Lone Star State heads to a middle-of-the-row ACC program.

After virtually no teams backed off their hot pursuit of him, Owens flipped and ultimately signed with Texas A&M, staying closer to home. Despite an awful season from the Aggies and tumult surrounding head coach Jimbo Fisher, Owens wasn't scared.

Now, he'll be a big part of the hopeful turnaround in College Station, in line to take a lot of the carries vacated when Devon Achane left for the NFL. New offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino does not have a shortage of talented options back there.

Amari Daniels, Le'Veon Moss and Earnest Crownover are all capable, but none of those guys have the sheer ability of Owens, who—much like Cedric Baxter Jr. over in Austin—is just too talented to keep off the field.

He's the type of every-down back who can carry an offense, and he'll prove it right away.

Samson Okunlola, Miami Offensive Tackle

Credit: 247Sports

Cormani McClain would have been an ideal player to put on this list, because if the Miami Hurricanes ultimately get him signed and to Coral Gables, he's going to be a superstar.

But will they be able to hold off Colorado, Alabama, Ohio State and others? Who knows?

Instead, it's fine to focus on the players coach Mario Cristobal is bringing to The U who he knows will be around, and there's no better place for him to start than along the offensive front, where he has developed numerous great players from his days at Oregon to back when he was Alabama's O-line coach.

There isn't a better duo in the nation than 5-stars Samson Okunlola and Francis Mauigoa.

While Mauigoa is a mauler, his position is a little uncertain. Is he long enough to stay on the outside and play tackle, or is his long-term potential greater on the interior? For Okunlola, it's pretty clear he's a left tackle and a potential superstar.

Playing against mediocre competition in Massachusetts, Okunlola could have a little bit of a learning curve and is raw, but he has immense power, agility and athleticism for a player his size. At 6'5", 305 pounds, he's the ideal size to step in and play right away.

Will there be some early growing pains? Perhaps, but he also has the potential to be one of the ACC's best offensive linemen really soon. He's that talented, and it's going to be exciting to watch him develop and eventually thrive under Cristobal.

Suntarine Perkins, Ole Miss Linebakcer

Credit: 247Sports

Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin had better hope he crushes it in the transfer portal this year the way he did a season ago, because the Rebels' recruiting class was really just so-so.

Ranked 23rd in the nation in recruiting, Kiffin and Co. didn't make much of a splash after reeling down the stretch and struggling to end the season.

One absolute home-run they did lure is linebacker Suntarine Perkins, who showed out in the Alabama-Mississippi All-Star Game and looks like a jewel of a find from Raleigh, Mississippi.

Unlike Nakobe Dean, this elite linebacker didn't get out of the Magnolia State, and Kiffin made sure of it. He's 6'3", 200 pounds and was a top-50 player in the nation coveted by top programs all over the nation.

He chose to stay at home and be a Rebel, and given the team's need for impact defenders, it would be a shocker if he wasn't at least in the two-deep rotation to start the year and eventually proving to be too talented to keep out of the starting lineup.

He's big, rangy and is an aggressive tackler who can fly all over the field and make plays from one sideline to another. He explodes into gaps well and is a sure tackler who seems to make play after play no matter what setting he's in.

Perkins is going to be a longtime star in the SEC.

J'ven Williams, Penn State Offensive Lineman

Credit: 247Sports

It's not easy to earn playing time right away in Happy Valley, because coach James Franklin has now stacked several solid classes back-to-back.

That didn't keep a talented 2022 group of freshmen from getting on the field and making waves once they did, though. Guys like Nick Singleton, Kaytron Allen, Abdul Carter and Drew Allar from looking the part.

Next year, it's J'ven Williams' turn.

While the Nittany Lions were much better along the offensive front during an exciting 11-2 campaign in 2022, there is still room for growth and improvement, and a guy like Williams is just too good to sit and wait.

At 6'4", 285 pounds, the Reading, Pennsylvania, native won't have to make a long trip to college, and he's already on campus and battling for a position. He'll get this spring to show what he can do, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him lock down a tackle spot with his length and athleticism.

Is this a stretch to predict Williams will start? Sure, it is. At Miami, the Hurricanes are rebuilding, so letting Samson Okunlola and Francis Mauigoa learn on the job is the right thing. In Happy Valley, Penn State is expected to win big, so if Williams is in the mix, it's only because he can get the job done now.

He needs to add 15-20 pounds of muscle between now and the start of the season, but if he does, Williams' career as being a stalwart up front will begin right away.

Hykeem Williams, Florida State Wide Receiver

Credit: 247Sports

One of the teams on a meteoric rise in college football is the Florida State Seminoles, who ended 2022 as one of the hottest teams in the nation.

With dual-threat quarterback Jordan Travis returning and tall, explosive leading receiver Johnny Wilson spurning the NFL to come back to Tallahassee, there could be big things on tap for the Seminoles next year.

Could they be a dark horse for the College Football Playoff?

They need some big-time playmakers to step up on offense, and a great candidate for that is 6'3", 200-pound 5-star receiver Hykeem Williams, a longtime FSU commit who shrugged off overtures from Colorado, Miami, Texas A&M and others to stay firm.

Now, with Ontaria Wilson (the team's second-leading receiver) heading to the NFL, he could team with Wilson and Mycah Pittman to give Travis a trio of formidable weapons. Can you imagine a freshman his size lining up opposite the 6'7", Wilson?

Talk about terrorizing defensive backs.

Williams is fast, gallops down the field in long stride and can high-point the ball. He isn't a finished product, but he is a field-stretching force who is big and physical enough to make the tough catches, too. He is almost certain to get on the field right away, and he has one of the highest ceilings of any pass-catcher in the class.

He could have a big season quickly in Tallahassee for an up-and-coming team.

Peter Woods, Clemson Defensive Tackle

Credit: 247Sports

Death, taxes and Clemson defensive linemen—you can count on them all.

With Myles Murphy and Bryan Bresee off to make their millions in the NFL, there are going to be some jumbo-sized voids along that defensive front for the Tigers, and while there are some viable options, none of them has the talent of Peter Woods.

Oh, by the way, those stars aren't the only guys the Tigers are losing. Tyler Davis, Ruke Orhorhoro, K.J. Henry, Justin Mascoll and Xavier Thomas are also leaving. So, opportunity abounds up front, and Woods is ready to burst through that door.

Like always, it seems, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney went into his home state of Alabama and plucked a star from the Yellow Hammer State in 6'3", 270-pound defensive lineman Woods from powerhouse Thompson High School.

While he may not be the biggest defensive lineman in the class, he is an explosive 5-star and the No. 33-ranked player in the nation according to the 247Sports composite. He showed out in the Under Armour game, finishing with three total tackles, including two for a loss, while he also broke up one pass by tipping it, which eventually led to an interception.

He's a disrupter and uber-athletic for his size, reportedly running the 40-yard dash in an absurd 4.6 seconds. Look for him to make his name known right away.

All stats courtesy of cfbstats and Sports Reference. Player rankings courtesy of 247Sports unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brad Shepard on Twitter, @Brad_Shepard.

   

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