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NFL Playoff Picture 2023: Dissecting AFC, NFC Scenarios Before Final Games

Jake Rill

Sunday marks the final day of the 2022 NFL regular season, and there are 14 games on the slate. By the end of the night, the 14-team playoff field will be set, and preparations will begin for the Wild-Card Round the following weekend.

Twelve teams have already clinched spots in the postseason. The most recent to do so was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won the AFC South title and secured the No. 4 seed in the conference with a home win over the Tennessee Titans on Saturday night. The Titans were eliminated from playoff contention with the loss.

In Saturday's other contest, the Kansas City Chiefs clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a road win over the Las Vegas Raiders.

One wild-card berth is still up for grabs in each conference, and an NFC East champion hasn't yet been crowned. Plus, there are other seeding battles that will be decided with Sunday's Week 18 action.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL playoff picture and the remaining clinching scenarios.

AFC Playoff Picture, Clinching Scenarios

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3, clinched No. 1 seed and AFC West)

2. Buffalo Bills (12-3, clinched AFC East)

3. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4, clinched AFC North)

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8, clinched AFC South)

5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, clinched playoff berth)

6. Baltimore Ravens (10-6, clinched playoff berth)

7. New England Patriots (8-8)

In the hunt: Miami Dolphins (8-8), Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)

Either the Patriots, Dolphins or Steelers will capture the No. 7 seed on Sunday and will head to the playoffs as the final wild-card team in the AFC. New England is the only one of the three in control of its own destiny, but it faces a tough challenge to get into the postseason.

The Pats will clinch that last playoff berth with a road win over the Bills. It's still possible New England could get into the postseason with a loss, but it would need both Miami and Pittsburgh to also lose.

If the Patriots lose, then a Dolphins win over the Jets at home would give Miami the No. 7 seed. If New England and Miami both lose, then a Pittsburgh win over Cleveland at home would give the Steelers the final AFC wild-card spot.

Although Buffalo can no longer be the No. 1 seed, it still has the incentive to beat New England. If the Bills win, they'll secure the No. 2 seed. And it would also mean that a potential Kansas City-Buffalo matchup in the AFC Championship Game would be played at a neutral site, due to the Bills having played one fewer game this season.

The Chargers will secure the No. 5 seed (and a Wild-Card Round matchup in Jacksonville) with either a road win over the Broncos or a Ravens loss to the Bengals in Cincinnati.

If Los Angeles and Baltimore both win, it means the Ravens and Bengals will meet again to open the postseason. A coin flip would be used to determine the home team in that potential matchup between the AFC North rivals, due to Cincinnati having played one fewer game this season.

NFC Playoff Picture, Clinching Scenarios

1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3, clinched playoff berth)

2. San Francisco 49ers (12-4, clinched NFC West)

3. Minnesota Vikings (12-4, clinched NFC North)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8, clinched NFC South)

5. Dallas Cowboys (12-4, clinched playoff berth)

6. New York Giants (9-6-1, clinched playoff berth)

7. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)

In the hunt: Detroit Lions (8-8), Green Bay Packers (8-8)

The Eagles can clinch the NFC East title and the No. 1 seed in the conference with a home win over the Giants on Sunday. If they lose, they'd still be the division champion if the Cowboys also lose to the Commanders on the road. And Philadelphia would still be the No. 1 seed if both Dallas and San Francisco (at home vs. Arizona) lose as well.

The 49ers and Cowboys will both look to capitalize if the Eagles are defeated. In that scenario, San Francisco could capture the top seed with a win. Dallas could move up to No. 1 if it wins and both Philadelphia and San Francisco lose, which would send the Eagles down to the No. 5 seed.

If the 49ers lose, the Vikings could move up to the No. 2 seed with a road win over the Bears. Otherwise, Minnesota will remain at No. 3.

Tampa Bay (No. 4) and New York (No. 6) are locked into its respective seeds.

Either the Seahawks, Lions or Packers will be the No. 7 seed. Green Bay is in the best position, as all it needs to do to capture that final wild-card berth is beat Detroit at home on Sunday night.

Seattle would be the No. 7 seed if it beats the Rams and the Lions defeat the Packers. Meanwhile, Detroit could be the final wild-card team if Seattle loses and then it beats Green Bay.

   

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