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Bold NBA Trade Predictions We Really Believe in 1 Month Before the Deadline

Dan Favale

The 2023 NBA trade deadline is so close you can already smell the chaos.

Is this because I slathered myself in six gallons of anarchy-scented cologne and am standing in front of an industrial-sized fan, tilted ever so accurately in your direction, with the speed dial set to "Warp Drive"? I mean, who's to say?

Either way, I've got a piping-hot, just-out-of-the-oven batch of trade deadline predictions for you to peruse.

Unlike other over-the-top crystal ball gazings, this exercise is not being done purely for engagement's sake. I asked to do this—begged for it, even. And these stabs in the dark, however much they might inadvertently infuriate you, are guesstimates in which I actually believe.

This conviction is not borne from (much) actual information. It is more so the idealist in me shining through. All this talk about "There are not enough sellers; brace yourself for cricket noises and fart sounds at the deadline" is too prevalent and killjoyish for me to embrace.

Yes, the postseason and play-in landscapes are so hectic that a vast number of teams can convince themselves to stand pat or opportunistically buy. And sure, enough contenders and desperate hopefuls have just about bankrupted their first-round-pick stash or are general-managed by Rob Pelinka that there might not be the requisite available ammo to sway should-be and could-be sellers on seismic transactions.

Still, I'm choosing not to believe that we're in for a quiet deadline. We hear some version of this schtick every year. The decibel level at which it's being bellowed might be atypical, but the warning itself is not unusual. It is pre-deadline posturing.

Audibles get called fast in #ThisLeague. This year is no different. There will be splashy moves ahead of and on Feb. 9. My (unsolicited) mission here, at the expense of my mentions and eminently smashable ego, is to step out on a limb and will some of them into existence.

The Oklahoma City Thunder...Buy

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What if the Oklahoma City Thunder are, in fact, monitoring one of your favorite team's players instead of monitoring other teams monitoring the (non-)availability of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?

Preposterous, right? Maybe.

General manger Sam Presti isn't one to rush things. The Thunder could still pack it up 66.7 percent of the way through the schedule and call it season. But right now, they seem more likely to opportunistically add rather than invent body parts for SGA to injure. They are firmly inside the play-in hunt, with a try-hard defense and certified superstar and better-outside-shooting Josh Giddey and a bunch of intriguing prospects and contributors.

This isn't meant to imply they'll go after a star. That market doesn't seem to exist for the moment, and they don't have the expendable salary fodder to effortlessly money-match. A blockbuster move is more feasible over the offseason, when they're flush with flexibility.

Targeting center depth and additional shooting and creation should be on the table, though. It's not just about making a play-in push, either. Optimizing the roster can streamline development, and Oklahoma City, frankly, isn't bad enough to sell or shut people down. It could certainly attempt an impromptu lottery-odds juicing. But imagine telling SGA to take the rest of the year off in, say, March when he's on track to contend for an All-NBA bid and the Most Improved Player award.

Myles Turner is a dream fit for this team—both now and when Chet Holmgren debuts next season. Making the money work is tough. The Thunder should add his name to their free-agent big board. In the meantime, they can and should look at functional, low-to-moderate-cost upgrades and fliers like Malik Beasley, Richaun Holmes, Obi Toppin, Josh Richardson, Kelly Olynyk, Mo Bamba, Jaxson Hayes, Kyle Kuzma, P.J. Washington, Naz Reid, Isaiah Stewart, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jakob Poeltl, Zach Collins—just to name (more than) a few.

Chicago Blows It Up and Deals at Least 3 of LaVine, DeRozan, Vučević, Lonzo & Caruso

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Forecasting a blowup is spiciness in its laziest form. Especially for the Chicago Bulls. That's why we're getting more specific.

The Bulls perpetually seem on the verge of complete implosion. They'll beat or hang with really good teams just long enough to rope you back in, only to collapse or turn around and, oh, I don't know, get thrashed by the short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves or Houston Rockets.

Wax poetic about wins over the Milwaukee Bucks (Dec. 28) and Brooklyn Nets (Jan. 4) if you're getting paid to propagandize this organization's obsession with the middle. Chicago has a losing record against sub-.500 opponents, the offense is allergic to taking threes, Lonzo Ball isn't walking through that door anytime soon, and Zach LaVine, while playing better, "privately has questioned" his role, according to NBC Sports' K.C. Johnson. (No word yet on whether LaVine is more baffled by his place in the offensive pecking order or being asked to play defense.)

Calls for teardowns are too often haphazard and implausible. This is neither. The Bulls can easily stage a controlled demolition. Outside teams will give up real value for LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso. Nikola Vučević's expiring contract should at least get you something. Flipping Lonzo at the nadir of his value won't be lucrative. It also won't be hard. His left knee problems are a red flag, but plenty of suitors would buy for the future when he has just two years and $41.9 million left on his deal and his apex includes high-volume shooting, connective passing and disruptive defense.

Whether the Bulls have the stomach to make what, honestly, is a painfully obvious decision remains debatable. They owe a top-four-protected pick to the Orlando Magic this year, plus a top-10-protected selection to San Antonio in 2025. That's technically incentive to win as much as possible.

Screw that, though. The Orlando pick, specifically, is a sunk cost. You already lost that trade. It doesn't matter whether you send the Magic the fifth pick or what is, as of now, the No. 9ish selection. Starting over, with additional firsts and prospects and flexibility in the chamber, should take precedence.

I'm betting the Bulls wake up and smell the damning hopelessness to which they have consigned themselves. "Blowing it up" is open for interpretation. It doesn't have to include unloading LaVine if Chicago, true to form, fancies itself capable of a quick turnaround. But it will entail dealing at least one of him or DeRozan, in addition to two of Caruso, Lonzo and Vooch.

Clippers Land Malik Beasley & Jarred Vanderbilt or Bogdan Bogdanović & Jalen Johnson

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This idea that the L.A. Clippers can play at full strength every 11th game or whatever and simply flip a switch and then dominate needs to fall by the wayside. It's not happening.

L.A. is throttling opponents when Paul George and Kawhi Leonard play together. Awesome. But they have barely taken the floor in tandem, and the offense lacks diversity both with and beyond them.

The Clippers, as they stand, need a host of things despite their enviable depth. Another option at the 5, behind Ivica Zubac, feels close to necessary. Unconscious off-ball shooting from someone who won't be targeted as much on defense as Luke Kennard would be nice. Insisting they search for another game manager, primary or secondary, is at once a cliche and still sort of on-the-money.

Checking all or any of these boxes won't be easy. It's also not impossible. The Clippers can fork over a first-round pick in 2028 or 2029, have a slew of digestible middle-rung contracts and have criminally underutilize Terance Mann in a way that makes you think they consider him semi-expendable.

Going after Malik Beasley (team option) and Jarred Vanderbilt or Bogdan Bogdanović (player option) and Jalen Johnson won't come cheap. But if the Clippers are willing to part with a 2028 first, they can offer up to two swaps (2027 and 2029) on top of Mann and other salaries.

The Atlanta Hawks wouldn't dare move Bogdanović in a vacuum. But they seem just concerned enough about their future finances that they might consider the opportunity to scoop up first-round equity, Robert Covington and store-brand Kevin Huerter (Luke Kennard). Bogdanović would arm the Clippers with an efficient slinger from deep who can do more on-ball work in the half-court than Kennard, and Johnson, while not an offensive boon, would offer switchable center depth for a team that trends small anyway.

Prying Beasley and Vanderbilt from the Jazz may be a thornier proposition. Contrary to the Hawks, they have a positive point differential, top-end offense and players who smile. But team CEO Danny Ainge and general manager Justin Zanik may elect to focus on the bigger picture. They might also believe they can withstand a deal with the Clippers.

Utah can replace some of Beasley's volume and shooting with Kennard, and Vanderbilt isn't as mission critical when it has Kelly Olynyk and Walker Kessler. If L.A. is offering some combination of a first, swaps, Mann and maybe even Covington, the conversation isn't laughable from either end.

Will the Clippers mortgage even more of their future on this core? It's a fair question that, in all likelihood, isn't even a question. Team governor Steve Ballmer is neither risk-averse nor afraid to spend. L.A. can enter the mix for some glitzier returns than many realize if it puts first-round goodies on the table.

John Collins Gets Traded, Finally, to Indiana or Utah

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John Collins is currently challenging Myles Turner for the "Been on the Trade Block for Eternity without Actually Getting Moved" award. Call me a sucker, but this will be the year he loses the title.

Whereas the Indiana Pacers are exceeding expectations and have talked to Myles Turner about a renegotiate-and-extend, according to The Athletic's Shams Charania, the Hawks are vastly underachieving, worried about payroll flexibility and seemingly hocking Collins all over the league. His exit feels like only a matter of time.

Predicting Collins' exit is not without risk. His value has hit rock bottom. The Hawks have marginalized him to kingdom come by sticking him inside an offense with two ball-dominant guards and limited screen responsibilities. His numbers are in the toilet as a result, and the three years and $78.5 million left on his deal no longer profiles as a net positive—so much so that the Jazz apparently wanted "multiple" firsts in exchange for taking him on, per Charania.

Hashing out a deal with Utah still feels possible. Collins does nothing for the Jazz's defense, but he fits into their spread-heavy offense and fits the mold of a distressed asset they can rehabilitate as a long-term fixture or future trade piece. Expecting the Hawks to grease the wheels of a trade with first-rounders is whimsical thinking—and probably a pre-deadline negotiating ploy. Utah can justify taking on Collins when he fits snugly next to all of its other frontcourt contributors, and if Atlanta isn't demanding firsts or core players in return.

The Pacers, meanwhile, offer the perfect environment for such a niche frontcourt player—provided they keep Turner. (Shout-out to SportsEthos' Rhett Bauer for mainlining this concept straight to my brain.) Collins needs to be somewhere he can function like a 5 on offense and 4 on defense. Turner makes that possible. He needs some on-ball and screening reps of his own, but he can stretch the floor around Collins while handling the nuts-and-bolts rim protection at the other end.

Indiana is not a team known to act brashly. The Tyrese Haliburton trade last season was, in many ways, out of character. But the Pacers have cap space to gobble up Collins' entire salary, and acting like buyers at the deadline is far from egregious when they're positioned to contend for a top-six spot in the East without short-circuiting their future.

Atlanta shouldn't be trying to dump Collins outright. That would be malpractice. The Hawks need to find a team confident it can bring out the 2020-21 version of Collins. For their part, the Pacers can offer Oshae Brissett and a 2023 first-rounder from either Boston (top-12 protection) or Cleveland (lottery protection) without breaking a sweat. And if the market for Collins is more robust than we're being led to believe, they should not be opposed to coughing up both picks or ponying up Chris Duarte.

Milwaukee Trades for Kyle Kuzma

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Khris Middleton's limited availability might be exaggerating the Milwaukee Bucks' offensive struggles in the half-court, but overarching concern isn't exactly misplaced.

This team entered the year needing a surefire answer to "Who should close most games with Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez?" That question endures. Whatever Joe Ingles and Wesley Matthews have left in the tank isn't an every-game solution, and Milwaukee has zero business trying to navigate crunch time in the playoffs with the Giannis-BroLo-Bobby Portis Jr. frontcourt.

Grayson Allen, Jevon Carter and Pat Connaughton rank as the best fifth-wheel options. That's...fine. But the Bucks need to strive for more than fine. They have Giannis for crying out loud.

Milwaukee is limited in what it can peddle on the trade market. It doesn't have the lofty salary-matching tools, blue-chip prospects or first-round equity to go big-game hunting. But the Bucks can dream bigger than "Can we get Jae Crowder for 800 second-rounders?" if they attach MarJon Beauchamp and/or their 2029 first to disposable money.

Kyle Kuzma is worth mortgaging a sliver of the future. He has dipped below 35 percent on catch-and-shoot threes but remains slippery on cuts to the basket, adds another layer of self-creation and can hold his on defense at either forward spot. His secondary rim protection should even invite Milwaukee to try pairing him with Portis up front or more heavily rely on Giannis-without-a-big arrangements.

Cutting ties with career-year Kuzma is not the Washington Wizards' style. They forever fancy themselves in the mix and may be more likely to make an impulse buy than pivot into seller's mode. But Kuzma has a $13 million player option for next season he's bound to decline. If he hasn't shown an inclination to stick around, even at top dollar, the Wizards need to shop him.

Other teams can rather easily beat the Bucks' best offer—say, some combination of Allen, Beauchamp, a 2029 first and seconds in 2027, 2028 and 2029. But how many squads will pay a mini ransom for a soon-to-be free agent? Milwaukee has the infrastructure, window and incentive to pay Kuzma long term to roll the dice, even if it comes at the expense of a better shooter (Allen). Not every other potential suitor can say the same.

Toronto Trades Fred VanVleet...

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Pleas for the Toronto Raptors to do something, anything, are growing louder by the week. They are hovering around the bottom 10 of both offensive and defensive efficiency since Nov. 30, and the path back to Eastern Conference irritant is becoming progressively hazy.

Toronto could go the buyer's route if it pleases. But that's a tough call to make when you're outside play-in territory halfway through the season, no matter how thin the margins are up and down the East.

Plenty of people want the Raptors to blow it up. That overstates the direness of their situation and, both often and mistakenly, presupposes they're built to hold a fire sale. Scottie Barnes isn't going anywhere unless Toronto bags a star. Everyone wants OG Anunoby, but 25-year-olds fit every timeline. Pascal Siakam turns 29 in April, but he's playing at an All-NBA level. Keeping him allows you to contemplate a quicker turnaround. You can move him later, without sacrificing value, if it comes to that.

This leaves Gary Trent Jr. and Fred VanVleet as the most notable forms of possible collateral damage. Both have player options for next season, and with Anunoby and Siakam each on the verge of extension eligibility, cost concerns could prompt the Raptors to scope out the market for the soon-to-be 29-year-old VanVleet.

On some level, this is counterintuitive. VanVleet's shooting is down, but that's not forever. He's bound to hit more than sub-33 percent of his catch-and-fire threes. Moving him for picks and prospects also does nothing to address the lack of maneuverability within the half-court offense. His table-setting and creation, however flawed, are too important.

At the same time, the Raptors might prefer the optionality of draft picks and prospects. They could detour into a fuller-scale rebuild over the summer or simply decide first-rounders are more valuable in aggressive buy-now trades they pursue over the summer.

Plus, given the dearth of obvious sellers on the market right now, Toronto may be able to set a higher asking price than it normally could for an impending free agent slogging through a down year. Speaking of which...

...To 1 of These Teams

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Los Angeles Lakers

This isn't me attempting to meet a Lakers quota. They have a real offer.

Putting both selections on the table has to at least start a discussion. If any executive can see the value of 2027 and 2029 first-rounders, it's Raptors president Masai Ujiri.

The Lakers may not want to mortgage so much of their future with Anthony Davis injured, but Peak Fred VanVleet keeps Los Angeles' playoff hopes alive without him. And a full-strength Lakers team becomes exponentially more lethal with FVV alongside AD and LeBron James.

Different permutations of this scenario abound. The Lakers can send out the expirings of Kendrick Nunn and Patrick Beverley to make the math work. They can also expand the deal to include swaps in 2026 and 2028 and see whether that gets the Raptors to send out Gary Trent Jr. while taking on the final few months of Russell Westbrook's deal.

Memphis Grizzlies

This is an out-there suggestion. The Grizzlies have eschewed making a major move despite party-crashing the top of the Western Conference the past few years, and many won't love the idea of playing Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and VanVleet at the same time, particularly if Tyus Jones isn't part of the trade.

I'm not sorry. That trio could nuke opponents at both ends despite its lack of size. VanVleet is a terrific off-ball defender and has oodles of experience working away from the action on offense.

Memphis can dangle some combination of Danny Green's expiring deal, Dillon Brooks, Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, Santi Aldama, their own first-round picks and Golden State's 2024 selection (top-four protection) to get the ball rolling. If the Grizzlies go the equivalent of two firsts and a young player (plus salary), the Raptors have to listen.

New Orleans Pelicans

Adding VanVleet to a team with Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum seems like overkill. It's not. VanVleet is plug-and-play on offense, and the Pelicans are nothing if not aware of how injuries can mess with their rotation.

Cost will be an issue. VanVleet is expected to hit free agency next summer, when New Orleans already has tax concerns. The team can figure that out later. VanVleet's track record of shooting and defense will be hyper-valuable in the playoffs, and his job gets even easier with so many other creators around him. He also gives the Pelicans more flexibility when closing games. His offense is an upgrade over what they get from Jose Alvarado, and he opens the door to removing McCollum from bad defensive matchups without sacrificing much at the other end.

Fleshing out a package isn't too complicated. The Pelicans should be willing to part with Herbert Jones following the emergences of Trey Murphy III and Dyson Daniels. Devonte' Graham can be used to help make the money work, as could Jaxson Hayes, and New Orleans has all its own first-round picks on top of selections from the Lakers and Bucks with which to futz around.

Phoenix Suns

Investing in VanVleet doesn't come off as the most prudent use of resources when you have Devin Booker and Chris Paul. But the CP3 decline, as a self-creator, is real. VanVleet helps safeguard against that and permits you to provide answers to awkward-yet-necessary questions about CP3's future down the line.

The Suns shouldn't be above playing all three guards together in the meantime. Their offense desperately needs another higher-volume ball-handler and scorer who doesn't submarine the defense. VanVleet is gritty enough, at both ends, to offset some of the size Phoenix would give up.

Toronto might ask for Mikal Bridges or Deandre Ayton (trade-eligible Jan. 15). Bridges should be a non-starter. I'd lean the same for Ayton. The Suns can entice the Raptors by offering expiring salaries (Jae Crowder, Dario Saric) and a truckload of picks and swaps that begin conveying this June.

Washington Wizards

There is no world in which the Wizards should think they're one Fred VanVleet away from salvation. Then again, we know better. Failing a Bradley Beal trade demand, this team is more likely to scour the market for upgrades that move the needle of their not-so-vaunted middle-build.

VanVleet is a quality fit. He'd provide a nice change of pace offensively compared to Delon Wright and Monte Morris but doesn't take touches away from a healthy Beal or Kristaps Porziņģis.

Washington's pick obligations to the New York Knicks make it hard to guarantee a first-rounder anytime soon. If VanVleet wasn't about to be a free agent—or if he was playing better—the Wizards might be out of the running. For now, they can build out packages around Kyle Kuzma, Monte Morris and Deni Avdija while gauging Toronto's appetite for conditional or distant firsts.

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Friday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.

   

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