There are over three months left in the 2022-23 NBA regular season. A lot can change in a couple of weeks, let alone a quarter of a calendar year.
But we also have two months of games, video and information on which to base our takes. That's enough for some way-too-early predictions on each of the league's shiny (and recently rebranded) individual awards.
Can anyone end Nikola Jokić's two-year MVP reign (or will he become the first player since Larry Bird to three-peat)? Can anyone catch Paolo Banchero in the Rookie of the Year race? Who will be the first ever to take home the Jerry West Trophy as Clutch Player of the Year?
For answers to those questions and more, scroll below for the Bleacher Report NBA staff's predictions for each and every award.
Executive of the Year: Koby Altman, Cleveland Cavaliers
End-of-the-year awards are always tricky to predict, and that's especially true of the two that go to non-players. There are a couple of crumbs worth of unofficial criteria for both Coach of the Year and Executive of the Year, though.
For the former, leading the league in winning percentage or drastically outperforming expectations certainly helps. For the latter, finishing at or near the top of the standings within a year or two of some key acquisitions can get you in the conversation.
Two executives who may be able to check both of those boxes by the end of the season are the Cleveland Cavaliers' Koby Altman and the Denver Nuggets' Calvin Booth.
For Booth, his Nuggets are within striking distance of first place in the West, and Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have both looked like good fits. His case will look stronger if Denver can eventually fix its defense, the main reason those two wings were acquired in the first place.
Even if the Nuggets do pull that off, though, those are more fringe moves. Denver's stars were acquired by Tim Connelly, who is now with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Altman's move, the all-in trade for Donovan Mitchell, is much splashier. Mitchell is playing better than he ever has before, he has an inside track on an All-NBA nod (especially with Stephen Curry's recent injury), and the Cavs are in range of the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks at the top of the East.
If all those things hold true, Altman will have a strong argument for Executive of the Year.
Coach of the Year: J.B. Bickerstaff, Cleveland Cavaliers
As usual, the list of quality Coach of the Year candidates is lengthy.
But the winner at this point should be none other than Cleveland's J.B. Bickerstaff.
The Cavs were supposed to be a middle-of-the-pack contender in the East this season, a slightly better version than last year's squad because of the addition of Donovan Mitchell. So far, they're not just a better team, they are one of the best in the East—arguably better than all but Milwaukee and Boston (the Celtics being a team Cleveland has notched a pair of wins against this season).
The Cavs are built as well as any team in the East for the playoffs. When the game slows down in the postseason, they have the frontcourt strength to cause problems, led by the towering tandem of Jared Allen and Evan Mobley. Cleveland also has the kind of isolation creators needed to win one-possession games in All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.
Cleveland plays both sides of the ball at a high level but is better defensively, as evidenced by a league-best defensive rating (106.7) and its plus/minus net rating of plus-6.5, which also tops the NBA.
Several factors have contributed to its fast start to the season, which currently has it with the third-best record in the East.
Talent is important, obviously. But so is quality coaching, which the Cavs are getting plenty of this season.
Rookie of the Year: Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
This remains Paolo Banchero's award to lose.
The Orlando Magic forward, picked first in the draft, continues to lead the class with 21.8 points per game and is the only rookie recording at least 4.0 assists and 6.6 rebounds.
Critics could argue Banchero's statistical dominance owes to him occupying by far the highest-usage role among first-year players, but it's not like the Magic would task him with so much on-ball responsibility if he couldn't handle it.
Banchero's ability to generate looks for himself and his teammates is his defining skill, and he showcases it from a forward spot, which opens up a breadth of roster-building options in Orlando.
Benedict Mathurin, Walker Kessler and Jaden Ivey deserve mention as a courtesy, but none of them are capably shouldering loads as heavy as Banchero's, who's on pace to become the second rookie since Tim Duncan to average at least 21.0 points with a true shooting percentage north of 55.0 percent.
Most Improved Player: Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz
Experts and competing executives expected the Utah Jazz to be one of the tank-for-Victor-Wembanyama teams. But the Jazz have been one of the surprise teams, led by Lauri Markkanen, who has emerged as the closest thing Utah's roster has to a "star."
And Markkanan has delivered consistently in that role, averaging 22.8 points and 8.2 rebounds a game on 53.4 percent shooting from the field and 43.8 percent from three-point range. That's a jump from 14.8 and 5.7, with the Cleveland Cavaliers last year on 44.5 percent and 35.8 percent shooting.
The Jazz's early success seemed like a fluke initially. Still, gradually it became clear that the team is legit and that Markkanen is a formidable centerpiece for a team that appears destined for the postseason instead of the lottery.
Other candidates include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Anfernee Simons of the Portland Trail Blazers and Tyrese Haliburton of the Indiana Pacers.
Defensive Player of the Year: Jaren Jackson, Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
Jackson missed the first 14 games of the season following offseason foot surgery, and that's about the only reason why he shouldn't be the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year already.
Having finished fifth overall in voting last year, Jackson has become the NBA's best rim protector, one that has almost single-handedly carried Memphis' defense from the depths of the league to the top.
The Grizzlies were ranked 21st in defense (112.4 rating) before Jackson made his debut, yet they are all the way up to second in the NBA since he returned (106.8 rating). He has the perfect combination of size, speed and strength, with impeccable timing on his leaps. Jackson can switch with ease, swallowing up smaller players on the perimeter while blocking an NBA-best 3.1 shots per game.
Jackson is holding opponents to an incredibly-low 43.2 percent shooting at the basket, easily the top mark in the NBA and way ahead of other notable rim protectors like Rudy Gobert (59.9 percent), Anthony Davis (57.0 percent) and Brook Lopez (52.2 percent).
The only potential argument against Jackson is his time spent on the court thus far. As the season moves along, however, this will no longer be an issue.
Sixth Man of the Year: Russell Westbrook, Los Angeles Lakers
The Russell Westbrook journey in Los Angeles with the Lakers has been tumultuous, but coach Darvin Ham has found the best role for him off the bench. The Lakers are still in flux, hoping to find footing in the Western Conference, especially with a foot injury to Anthony Davis. Still, Westbrook has been a reliable, steady force for the team as a $47.1 million sixth man.
The sacrifice wasn't easy for a former NBA Most Valuable Player, but Westbrook has willingly accepted his role. He's playing a career-low 28.1 minutes while contributing 14.5 points, 7.6 assists and 6.2 rebounds a game. The Lakers may not win enough to make the postseason, but Westbrook should run away with the award.
The only caveat is that L.A. may still look to move Westbrook ahead of the trade deadline. Worthy alternatives include Jordan Poole of the Golden State Warriors, Malcolm Brogdon of the Boston Celtics and rookie Bennedict Mathurin of the Indiana Pacers.
- Pincus
Clutch Player of the Year: Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets
There's literally no precedent to rely on for this award. The 2022-23 season marks the first time in league history that The Jerry West Trophy will be awarded to the Clutch Player of the Year.
It isn't too hard to lay out some key indicators for predicting the winner, though.
Volume should certainly be a factor. And right now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in total points scored in the clutch (defined as the final five minutes of games in which the teams are within five points of each other). Of course, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a negative plus-minus in SGA's clutch minutes. That and a sub-.500 record will make it tough for him to win.
And that brings us to another consideration: The team probably needs to be good (or, at least, decent). With the exception of Rookie of the Year, winning almost always contributes to a given player's shot at an award. In some years, it even helps for Rookie of the Year. Being clutch and winning often go hand in hand, so that trend should continue for this award.
Finally, efficiency has to be an ingredient too.
One or two big shots on a national TV game might generate some buzz, but if the same player who hit those shots is ice-cold in other clutch moments, he probably shouldn't win.
Right now, Kevin Durant is passing all the tests above.
The Brooklyn Nets are 11-3 in games that KD has played in and went to clutch time. In his clutch minutes, Durant is averaging 34.9 points, 3.8 threes and 2.3 blocks per 75 possessions while shooting 46.7 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from three.
Given his career track record, it's fair to expect his numbers to remain around those levels by the time voting starts on this award.
- Bailey
MVP: Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks
There's this tendency to insist an MVP winner cannot come from a mediocre team. And some clearly believe we've skewed too far into "rewarding Superstar X for having a shaky supporting" territory.
These concerns are fair. But this pick won't assuage them. Luka Dončić's Dallas Mavericks are the Western Conference 10-seed at this writing, and so much of his case is rooted in the unfathomably heavy workload he's creating.
Still, just because his solo act is his strongest argument doesn't mean it's his only one. His numbers are gaga; he's averaging 32.5 points and 8.6 assists on 60.4 true shooting. The only other player to clear 32.5 points and 8.0 assists on 60.0 true shooting in a season? Michael Jordan in 1988-89.
It'd be one thing if Dončić's stats came in service of futility or if they actively enabled it. They don't. The Mavs are outscoring opponents by 4.8 points per 100 possessions with Dončić on the court, per Cleaning the Glass. That's the rough equivalent of the fourth-best net rating in the league, currently owned by the New Orleans Pelicans (plus-4.9).
This idea that Dončić is somehow limiting Dallas because he needs to assume such a central role seems misplaced. That stance holds water if the Mavs are trying to use him in different ways, and he's failing or rebelling against it.
That's not what's happening. The game he missed against Cleveland on Dec. 17 was proof. Kemba Walker was called upon to play a similar role in his absence.
Dallas' livelihood is tethered to Luka by design. It may be a flawed approach, but it's not his own. And he's killing it anyway.
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