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The Top 10 Landing Spots for Dodgers' Cody Bellinger in MLB Free Agency

Zachary D. Rymer

In addition to Aaron Judge, Justin Verlander, José Abreu and Andrew McCutchen, there's now another MVP looking for work on Major League Baseball's free-agent market.

So, let's examine where Cody Bellinger might find it.

After Bellinger claimed the National League MVP in 2019, nobody could have expected that the Los Angeles Dodgers would cut him loose just three years later. Yet that's what happened on Friday when the team declined to tender him a contract for 2023.

Shocking, maybe, but not very surprising. Bellinger's fall from grace over the last three years didn't exactly happen in obscurity, and arbitration would have required the Dodgers to pay him a hefty projected salary of $18.1 million if they had tendered him.

So before we get to sizing up potential landing spots for the 27-year-old center fielder, let's first answer the questions of what the heck happened to him and how his market is shaping up.

What Happened to Bellinger?

Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Beyond just his MVP, Bellinger also had a Rookie of the Year, two All-Star nods, a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger after three seasons with the Dodgers between 2017 and 2019. In total, he cranked 111 home runs with a 144 OPS+ and 16.7 rWAR.

Since then, he's hit only 41 home runs in tandem with a 74 OPS+ and 1.2 rWAR.

Ironically, these dark times largely trace back to the brightest moment of Bellinger's career: his go-ahead home run in Game 7 of the 2020 National League Championship Series.

That triumph was swiftly followed by real pain as Bellinger and then-teammate Enrique Hernández celebrated with a forearm bash that dislocated Bellinger's right shoulder. He was able to play in the World Series, but he had surgery shortly thereafter.

It was clear to Dodgers manager Dave Roberts throughout the 2021 season that Bellinger wasn't yet fully recovered. And even now, agent Scott Boras still sees his client's major issue as a lack of strength in his right shoulder, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Perhaps it is that simple, but it's also hard to ignore the other things that have coincided with Bellinger's downfall.

For example, his seemingly never-ending parade of changes to his batting stance (see here and here) and swing mechanics (here and here). And, in what may be a related example, his diminished ability to handle heat. Where has was once one of the best four-seam fastball hitters in baseball in 2019, he became one of the worst between 2020 and 2022.

What Is Bellinger's Market?

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On the plus side, Bellinger's offensive struggles haven't negatively impacted his defense. Between 2020 and 2022, he ranked eighth in outs above average among center fielders.

That's one of two big reasons why teams should be willing to take a chance on the six-year veteran, with the other obviously being the possibility that he can be an elite hitter again.

Though that may yet come to pass, Boras has nonetheless hinted that he and Bellinger are only looking for a one-year deal that would potentially allow him to reestablish his value ahead of a subsequent trip to free agency next winter.

“I’ve already been offered multi-years," Boras told Rosenthal. "Most likely, because of his age, we don’t want a multi-year.”

As MLB.com's Jon Morosi pointed out on MLB Network on Monday, the situation is such that both contenders and non-contenders figure to be in play for Bellinger's services:

For Bellinger, the appeal of signing with a non-contender is in the likelihood of a midseason trade that would A) but him on a contender and B) bar him from a qualifying offer. The latter would leave him untied to draft-pick compensation on the 2023-24 market.

Either way, he should be affordable for anyone. This is just a guess, but it wouldn't be a surprise if Bellinger signed for just half of the $18.1 million he was slated to make in 2023.

So without further delay, let's weigh 10 hypothetical fits for Bellinger based on how he would fit and what kind of springboard they can offer him as he looks to rescue his career.

10-6: Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs

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10. Boston Red Sox

CF rWAR in 2022: 0.7

The Red Sox need as much offense as they can get, and Enrique Hernández need not block Bellinger from playing center field. If not to second base, he could conceivably shift over to right field to fill the substantial hole Boston has at the position.

Yet Fenway Park wouldn't necessarily be the best place for Bellinger. It's a good place for left-handed hitters generally, but not so much for those who prefer to pull their fly balls. That's Bellinger, who has only two opposite-field home runs for his whole career.

9. New York Yankees

CF rWAR in 2022: 5.2

Now, Yankee Stadium. There's a good place for left-handed hitters with pull power. And with Aaron Judge afloat in free agency and Aaron Hicks having fallen out of favor, there's room for Bellinger in the Bronx.

But where, exactly? To move Harrison Bader off center field in deference to Bellinger would be a waste of Bader's own skills with the glove. While Bellinger could agree to move to left or right field, neither spot would be conducive to his value-building mission.

8. New York Mets

CF rWAR in 2022: 5.3

Elsewhere in New York, Brandon Nimmo's free agency has left the Mets with a need for a left-handed-hitting center fielder. Bellinger would fill that nicely, and he'd come with the power upside to help solve the home run shortage that plagued the Mets in 2022.

In theory, anyway. In reality, Bellinger hit only three more homers than Nimmo this past season. They should thus be seeking a more reliable power source. And as far as Bellinger should be concerned, there are better places for lefty sluggers than Citi Field anyway.

7. Los Angeles Dodgers

CF rWAR in 2022: 1.5

The Dodgers may not have deemed Bellinger worthy of a big salary, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman quickly made it clear that this doesn't mean they want to close the book on their relationship:

But while there's still a place for Bellinger in center field, we can't be the only ones thinking he needs a change of scenery. Or, perhaps more accurately, a change of coaching after so many failed attempts to overhaul his swing in Los Angeles.

6. Chicago Cubs

CF rWAR in 2022: minus-0.1

As Gordon Wittenmeyer of NBC Sports Chicago reported on Nov. 11, the Cubs were interested in Bellinger even before the Dodgers non-tendered him. They frankly need his defense in center, and they're otherwise in a good position to roll the dice on his offense.

Whether the Cubs make as much sense for Bellinger is more debatable. The regular at-bats and the prospect of a midseason trade would be there, sure, but Wrigley Field is yet another less-than-ideal locale for left-handed-hitting sluggers.

5. Cincinnati Reds

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

CF rWAR in 2022: minus-0.8

The Reds as a fit for a high-profile free agent? Is this Opposite Day?

It's a fair question in context of all the cost-cutting the Reds have done over the last year or so, not to mention various indications that more of the same is in order for 2023. That's rebuilding for you.

And yet, part of rebuilding is cashing in veteran stars for up-and-coming prospects on the trading block. This is where the Reds' shelves are basically empty, so they could consider Bellinger just to try to have something to offer at next year's deadline.

Otherwise, it's by no means a stretch to say that Bellinger is a better center fielder than Nick Senzel. Further, Bellinger might not be able to ask for a better place to revive his offense than Great American Ball Park. Especially for lefty sluggers, it's great indeed.

Bellinger would also sign with the Reds knowing that, barring a miraculous contention run, he would basically be guaranteed to be traded to a contender at the deadline. So if they pick up the phone and give him a call, he should absolutely be willing to listen.

4. Colorado Rockies

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

CF rWAR in 2022: 0.6

If the Rockies' reported interest in Brandon Nimmo is any indication, they clearly understand that it's past time to patch that hole in center field.

And if so, why not patch it with Bellinger instead?

At least for now, this is another strictly speculative possibility. But it's a good fit on a couple of accounts, starting with the fact that Coors Field is a hitter's paradise. We could cite all sorts of numbers, but that hardly seems necessary. It's Coors Field. Everyone knows the drill.

Let's not overlook that Coors Field is also a good place for defensive-minded outfielders to show off. It has the most fair territory of any major league stadium. That means a lot of ground to cover, especially in center field.

In addition to the likelihood of a midseason trade, these things could perhaps appeal to Bellinger if the Rockies were to come calling. Yet there would also be room for caution, specifically regarding the "everyone knows the drill" bit regarding Coors Field. Any offensive rebirth he were to pull off there would inevitably invite skepticism.

3. Milwaukee Brewers

AP Photo/Aaron Gash

CF rWAR in 2022: 1.7

Three years after they took part in a thrilling race for the NL MVP, could Bellinger and Christian Yelich join forces in Milwaukee for the 2023 season?

To be clear, there doesn't seem to be any reporting linking the Brewers to Bellinger. But it's a sensible fit in concept—for reasons that go beyond the possibility of Beli and/or Yeli turning back the clock to 2019.

For one, an experienced center fielder with upside is just what the Brewers need. Their best internal options seem to be Tyrone Taylor and Garrett Mitchell, both of whom are athletic but prone to swing-and-miss at the plate.

For two, American Family Field is underrated as a haven for sluggers, particularly those who bat from the left side if Statcast is to be believed.

To this end, one catch is that Tuesday's trade of Hunter Renfroe to the Los Angeles Angels rendered Milwaukee's lineup even more skewed to the left than it already was. But since it also cut a projected $11.2 million of salary from the payroll, Bellinger suddenly looks that much more affordable for the Brewers.

2. San Francisco Giants

Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

CF rWAR in 2022: 1.1

There's nothing hypothetical about whether the Giants are interested in Bellinger. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, they are.

It bears noting that there is some shared DNA between the Giants and Bellinger's former team. San Francisco's president of baseball operations, Farhan Zaidi, and manager, Gabe Kapler, crossed paths with Bellinger in Los Angeles before joining the Giants organization in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

What might be even more relevant regarding the project of getting Bellinger back on track is the Giants' organizational emphasis on coaching. The quantity is there for sure. And while it wasn't so much in 2022, the quality was sure there in 2021.

Even still, going to San Francisco would be a risk for Bellinger. And not just because there's presently some uncertainty as to whether the Giants are a contender or a pretender for the upcoming season.

Though Oracle Park would give him have a nice, big outfield to roam as a defender, that would be the downside for his offensive outlook. Even if fly balls generally performed better than expected there in 2022, it's still no country for home run hitters.

1. Toronto Blue Jays

Mark Blinch/Getty Images

CF rWAR in 2022: 2.2

The Blue Jays conducted their offense pretty much entirely from the right side of the plate in 2022, ranking dead-last in the majors in plate appearances from the left side.

How they would correct this issue had no clear answers at the outset of the offseason, but less so now after the Teoscar Hernández trade. That created an opening in the team's outfield that Morosi rightfully sees as a good place for Bellinger:

Some Statcast park factor metrics disagree on whether Rogers Centre is actually a hitter-friendly park, but not the one for home runs. Meanwhile, the turf there doesn't pose as big a threat to outfielders' legs following the implementation of a more forgiving design in 2021.

Such things could appeal to Bellinger, which is to say nothing of the fact that the Blue Jays are a fun, talented team. And given that it's past time to move George Springer to right field, they have the capacity to accommodate Bellinger in center.

This is not to say that Bellinger is necessarily Toronto's top option, as Brandon Nimmo's floor is surely a safer bet than the Bellinger's ceiling. Yet there's no denying the fit between Bellinger and the Blue Jays is a good one, much less a more cost-effective one.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

   

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