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The B/R Guide to Dominating Fantasy Football in Week 11

Gary Davenport

Do you feel that? That tingle in the air. That electricity? That faint feeling of pressure?

The stretch run of the fantasy football regular season is here.

Unless your team is 8-2 and rolling or 2-8 and rolled, every week left in the season is that much more important now. This is the time of year when 7-3 teams earn a first-round bye or when 3-7 teams try to make a miraculous run (it can be done—I went from 3-7 to league champion in 2020). This is when 6-4 teams cement their spot in the postseason and when 5-5 teams earn one.

For many fantasy managers, the playoffs have essentially begun. Wins are critical. Losses are unacceptable.

Circumstances aren't making things any easier. Injuries continue cutting a swath through the fantasy landscape, players continue to disappoint and bye weeks continue punching holes in lineups.

It's frustrating. Disorienting. Maddening. Fantasy managers need help. A lifeline in these choppy waters. Something to help them navigate Week 11 and emerge with a win—or even dominate.

See where I'm going with this?

Week 11 Smash Starts

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The Justin Fields experience has been quite the ride.

After being cast to the waiver wire in quite a few fantasy leagues earlier in the season, the second-year quarterback has been on fire of late. After another huge game running the ball last week against the Detroit Lions, Fields was once again the No. 1 quarterback in fantasy in Week 10. Over the past five weeks, Fields isn't just tops in fantasy points at his position—he's No. 1 by a massive margin.

Fields wasn't the only smash play in Week 10. Whether it was Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner, Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb or Bears tight end Cole Kmet, a number of players blew up and helped propel fantasy managers to victory.

These players all have the potential to be the same kind of week-winner in Week 11.

Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (at MIN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,600)

Since Prescott returned to action, he ranks eighth in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks, and he was 10th at the position in points a week ago. But the 29-year-old should be able to do better than that in a matchup with the Vikings that has more than a little shootout potential.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (vs. TEN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,000)

Rodgers is coming off his best fantasy outing of the season in a three-score effort against the Dallas Cowboys. He should be able to build on that success on Thursday night against a Tennessee Titans team allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in 2022.

Running Back

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (at ATL) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,100)

With Khalil Herbert now on injured reserve, Montgomery is back to being the unquestioned lead back for the Bears. That should mean good things in Atlanta on Sunday against a Falcons team that just gave up a big game to Panthers running back D'Onta Foreman.

Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons (vs. CHI) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,200)

Patterson admittedly laid an egg in a great Week 10 matchup with the Panthers. But a short memory can sometimes be a fantasy manager's best friend, especially ahead of a matchup with a Bears defense allowing the fifth-most PPR points per game to running backs.

Wide Receiver

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals (at PIT) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,500)

Boyd has been on a roll of late with Ja'Marr Chase on the sidelines—he has found the end zone in two of the last three games and hit 12 PPR points in three of the last four. No team in the AFC has allowed more PPR points per game to wide receivers than the Steelers.

Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers (vs. TEN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,100)

Lazard was invisible for most of last week's overtime win over the Cowboys, but he has been easily Green Bay's most reliable wideout in 2022. This week the Packers take on a Tennessee Titans defense that has surrendered the fourth-most PPR points per game in the league to wide receivers.

Tight Ends

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (at ARI) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,400)

Kittle hasn't been the fantasy force managers hoped for in 2022. After 10 weeks, he ranks outside the top 15 at the position in total points, though he is at least seventh in points per game. But this week's dream matchup with the Arizona Cardinals should equate to at least one week of the elite production folks were targeting on draft day.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (at ATL) (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,100)

It took Kmet a while to score his first touchdown of the season, but now he's living in the end zone. Over the past three games, he has scored five times. The Falcons have surrendered the eighth-most PPR points per game to tight ends in 2022.

Week 11 Must-Fades

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Week 10 of the 2022 fantasy season will go down in infamy for many managers. It's the week when their season came completely off the rails. A disaster of biblical proportions.

It was the week of the Kuppocalypse.

It was bad enough that with John Wolford at quarterback, Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp went from Terminator to timid. Before Week 10, Kupp hadn't recorded less than 16 PPR points in a game this season. Only once had he failed to record less than seven receptions or 75 receiving yards.

But against the Arizona Cardinals, Kupp managed just three receptions for negative-one yard.

He also suffered a high-ankle sprain in the game—one severe enough to require surgery and land him on injured reserve.

These players might not crater in that epic a fashion in Week 11. But they face the kind of uphill battle that has a tendency to end with shaking heads and heavy sighs.

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (vs. DAL) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,100)

Cousins had an up-and-down Week 10 against the Bills. He threw for 357 yards and a touchdown but also tossed a pair of interceptions. He draws another tough matchup in Week 11, as the Cowboys are fourth in pass defense and 26th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (vs. SF) (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,100)

Even if Murray were 100 percent healthy, he would be a dicey Week 11 start against a 49ers defense allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. But Murray's hamstring isn't 100 percent. Or even especially close.

Running Back

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (vs. SF) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,300)

Conner had himself a day last week, finding the end zone twice in Arizona's victory over the Los Angeles Rams. But the sledding won't be easy in Mexico City. No team in the NFC has allowed fewer fantasy points per game to running backs this season than the 49ers.

Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions (at NYG) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,000)

Williams has emerged as the most valuable fantasy asset in the Detroit backfield, and he's 15th in PPR points among running backs after 10 weeks. But he draws a tough Week 11 matchup against a Giants defense giving up the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to running backs in 2022.

Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. CIN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,800)

Targets haven't been an issue for Johnson this season. He ranks among the top-10 wideouts in the NFL in that regard. But Johnson barely ranks inside the top 40 in PPR points, and a bad fantasy matchup with the Bengals this week isn't going to help matters.

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (at IND) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,200)

With tight end Dallas Goedert out for at least a month and fellow wideout A.J. Brown dealing with a minor ankle issue, some are predicting a value spike for Smith. But this week, at least, Smith's breakout may have to wait. The Colts are dead last in the league in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings (vs. DAL) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,300)

Hockenson has been solid in two games with the Vikings, tallying at least 11 PPR points in both contests. This feels like the week he comes back to Earth since the Cowboys have surrendered the sixth-fewest PPR points per game to tight ends this season.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (vs. CHI) (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,400)

At this point, it's fair to question why the Falcons bothered to use the fourth overall pick on a player they don't appear especially inclined to involve in the offense. Add in a bottom-five fantasy matchup for tight ends with the Bears, and it's a pass on Pitts time—again.

Week 11 Mastering the Matchups

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It's not bad enough that players like Dallas Goedert and Cooper Kupp got hurt last week. Or that players like Kyler Murray, Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott and Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen were already out.

Oh no. On top of that, four teams are on a bye in Week 11.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are off, so no Travis Etienne or Christian Kirk. You can forget about Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and the rest of the Miami Dolphins too. Same goes for the Seattle Seahawks, so Ken Walker III and Tyler Lockett are a no-go. So are Mike Evans and Tom Brady with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers joining Seattle on siesta after the two teams played in Munich in Week 10.

That leaves a ton of holes in fantasy lineups. Leaks in the proverbial boat that need patched.

These players might not be as strong as Flex Seal, but they'll help keep your fantasy squad afloat.

Quarterback

Daniel Jones, New York Giants (vs. DET) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,700)

Jones might just be the most underrated quarterback in fantasy this year—he has produced top-15 numbers despite arguably the weakest passing-game weapons in the entire NFL. Now he faces a Lions defense that leads the league in fantasy points per game given up to quarterbacks.

Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers (at BAL) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,000)

Mayfield hasn't played well most of this season. But he's the cheapest starting quarterback in DFS this week, the Ravens have allowed the 11th-most points per game to quarterbacks and this is a game with a high potential for garbage-time production. If there was ever a week to consider Mayfield, this is it.

Running Back

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs (at LAC) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,300)

Pacheco served as Kansas City's No. 1 back in Week 10, carrying the ball 16 times for 82 yards against the Jaguars. Now he draws a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has allowed 146.8 rushing yards per game—third-most in the NFL.

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (vs. CLE) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,800)

Singletary found the end zone twice against the Minnesota Vikings last week, but he's only topped 50 yards on the ground in two games this season. He'll do so for a third time Sunday against a Browns team allowing the second-most PPR points per game to running backs in 2022.

Wide Receiver

Darius Slayton, New York Giants (vs. DET) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,000)

Slayton has topped 11 PPR points in three straight games and has touchdowns in two of those contests. There really isn't a position the Lions defense hasn't given up a ton of fantasy points to, and wide receiver is no exception—Detroit has allowed the seventh-most PPR points to wideouts.

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers (vs. TEN) (DraftKIngs DFS Value: $4,900)

After struggling with drops much of the season, Watson erupted for three touchdowns last week against the Cowboys. Talent was never a question for the rookie—if he has earned the trust of Aaron Rodgers, Watson could be set for quite the second-half surge.

Tight End

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets (at NE) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,400)

It appears that Jets quarterback Zach Wilson may finally be figuring out that Conklin is on the team, although his production has still been hit-or-miss. This sets up well as a "hit" week—the Jets are going to have to move the ball through the air to get this win, and the Patriots have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to tight ends this year.

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay (vs. TEN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,500)

Noticing a theme here? The Titans are a first-place team that has been difficult to run on, but the Tennessee pass defense has allowed more yards per game than any other team in the AFC. Green Bay's path to a second straight win in Week 11 is through the air.

Week 11 Fantasy Stock Market

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The trade bazaar in fantasy football is coming to a close. In many fantasy leagues, the deadline has already come and gone. Quite a few more will close for business following this week.

With that said, there are no shortage of fantasy managers looking to add the final piece in a championship puzzle or parlay some depth into an upgrade in the starting lineup.

Here are a handful of players who have the potential to be that missing piece—and some others for whom things have probably gotten as good as they will all year.

Buy Low

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert has disappointed this season, largely because wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have both missed considerable time. But Allen and Williams are going to return at some point in the not-too distant future, and Herbert will have legitimate top-five fantasy upside once they do.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After Leonard Fournette left last week's win over the Seahawks with a hip injury, White became Tampa's lead back and posted the first 100-yard game of his career. At worst, White has earned a bigger piece of the backfield pie. At best, a changing of the guard at running back for the Buccaneers is looming.

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

Olave hasn't found the end zone since Week 5; he hasn't had a 100-yard game since Week 7 and last week the rookie from Ohio State had his lowest yardage in a game all season (40). If an Olave manager is panicking about that "slump," take advantage—the youngster is too good not to bounce back.

Greg Dulcich, TE, Denver Broncos

After showing promise earlier in the season, Dulcich went full milk carton in Week 10, managing just one catch for 11 yards. But the rookie from UCLA could be set for a bump in target share with Jerry Jeudy on the shelf, and Dulcich has shown the ability to post double-digit PPR points with some consistency.

Sell High

Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks

Smith has had a good season for fantasy managers to date—he's seventh among quarterbacks in fantasy points for the year and has been relative consistent. But that's what makes him an attractive asset to dangle in trade talks, especially if you have another viable starter under center.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Yes, Taylor had 22 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown last week against the Raiders. But a big chunk of those yards and the score came on one carry, and the Colts offense remains one of the league's lowest-scoring units. That big game against Vegas afforded managers an out. Wise ones will explore it.

Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers

Watson had a huge game last week against the Cowboys. And from a matchup perspective, he could be set up for another good one against a weak Titans secondary in Week 11. But it's every bit as likely that last week was an outlier as opposed to the start of a trend. If you can find a trade partner convinced it's the latter, selling Watson now makes sense.

Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears

Kmet has been a touchdown-scoring machine of late, and injuries at tight end have savaged the depth of that position. Those two factors combined make it a seller's market and then some for Kmet's services if you can afford to part with him. If you have two startable tight ends rostered, there will never be a better time to shop one of them.

Week 11 Reading the Defense

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Sometimes, things just don't work out like you hoped.

Heading into Week 10, there were multiple reasons to think the Dallas Cowboys were a good defensive play. The Cowboys were one of the highest-scoring fantasy defenses for the season. From Week 1 to Week 9, the Green Bay Packers allowed the sixth-most points per game to opposing defenses.

The stage was set.

The problem? Someone forgot to tell Aaron Rodgers. The Packers piled up 31 points, allowed just two sacks and turned it over twice on the way to Dallas' worst fantasy performance defensively of the season by a fair margin.

It happens. And when it does, all you can do is dust yourself off, perhaps mutter a little under your breath and then get back to work.

Strong D/ST Plays

Cincinnati Bengals (at PIT) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,400)

The Bengals have had their share of struggles defensively in 2022, including a pass rush that ranks toward the bottom of the league in sacks. But the Steelers offense has struggled plenty in its own right, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to defenses this season.

New Orleans Saints (vs. LAR) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,000)

In terms of yards allowed, the Saints have been pretty good defensively. In terms of points allowed, not so much. But Sunday the Saints host a Rams team that leads the league in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses, and that was with Cooper Kupp.

Las Vegas Raiders (at DEN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $2,500)

To be clear, while the Raiders have some talented players on defense like edge-rusher Maxx Crosby, the unit as a whole is not good. But the Denver offense as a whole is even worse—the Broncos are 22nd in yards per game and dead last in scoring (just 14.6 points per game).

Weak D/ST Plays

Buffalo Bills (vs. CLE) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,800)

Last week's loss to the Vikings notwithstanding, the Bills are still one of the better defensive teams in the league. But injuries on that defense are starting to take a toll, and the Browns are surprisingly 24th in points per game allowed to defenses.

Dallas Cowboys (at MIN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,200)

Even after last week's disappointing outing against the Packers, the Cowboys are still third in fantasy points among defenses. But the Vikings have given up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to defenses, and Minnesota just racked up 33 points in last week's overtime win in Buffalo.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. DAL) (DraftKings DFS Value: $2,400)

The Vikings have had their moments defensively this season. Even in last week's shootout with the Bills, a defensive touchdown salvaged a solid stat line. But the Cowboys haven't been generous to opposing defenses in 2022; they're 29th in PPR points per game allowed to the position.

Week 11 Fantasy Mailbag

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Every week during the 2022 season, I'll be pulling a handful of fantasy football questions from the Bleacher Report app and answering them here. Hopefully, those answers will aid not only the managers making the query but others as well.

Have a question you want answered? Head on over to the fantasy football section of the app and make with the asking.

Start Rondale Moore or George Pickens? -- @bennetttw

That this is a real question 10 weeks in speaks to how weird fantasy football seasons can get. Moore has been on a nice run of late, posting 14-plus PPR points in three straight games. He has also been targeted 31 times over that span. Pickens is a talented young receiver with a bright future, but Pittsburgh's passing game hasn't been good and the Bengals are a bad matchup for receivers. Give me Moore here.

Would you start Najee Harris or D'Andre Swift? -- @verkovod

Given how mightily Harris has struggled this season, I want to say Swift. But his workload is a massive question mark heading into this week's meeting with the Giants. Harris actually had one of his better games running the ball against the Saints last week, amassing 99 yards on 20 carries. Harris is a much safer bet to see 15-20 touches this week against the Bengals. He gets the nod.

I lost Cooper Kupp last week and need to try to hold my WR group together. I'm definitely starting Terry McLaurin, but I need two more from Jakobi Meyers, Allen Robinson, Darius Slayton and Jarvis Landry. -- @boomer32

The easiest "yes" of this group is Meyers—a few weeks ago in New England's first meeting with the Jets, Meyers logged nine catches for 60 yards and a score. Landry is a pass—the Saints passing game just isn't good enough to roll out a wide receiver not named Chris Olave. That leaves Robinson and Slayton. Were Matthew Stafford out again, Slayton would get the call. But Stafford is on track to play, and that gives the Rams' new de facto No. 1 receiver the edge.

With Zach Ertz out for the year, should I start Trey McBride or Hunter Henry at tight end -- @SlimJim87

First off, I feel your pain—I had shares of Ertz all over the place. He was one of my favorite tight end targets over the summer. McBride was certainly productive in college, and more than a few draftniks thought he was the best tight end in the 2022 class. But we can't just assume that McBride will slide into Ertz's role—or even come close. As disappointing as Henry has been this season, go with the more known commodity until we get a better look at McBride's role .

With Travis Etienne on bye, who should I start at running back alongside Nick Chubb? Cordarrelle Patterson or Michael Carter? -- @Uyrun322

In terms of what they did last time out, Carter would appear an easy call. He amassed 76 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries against the Bills two weeks ago, while Patterson's Week 10 game against Carolina was a clunker. However, Patterson takes on a Bears defense Sunday that has had all kinds of trouble stuffing the run, while Carter gets a Patriots defense allowing the fewest fantasy points per game in the league to running backs. Patterson (begrudgingly) gets the start

THE Fantasy Boom of Week 11

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No one player can make or break an entire season. Even cataclysmic injuries to top-five picks can sometimes be overcome with some waiver wire magic and/or a trade or two.

This is where everyone who drafted Cooper Kupp looks up angrily, screams "TOO SOON!" and then goes back to quietly sobbing.

However, one player can make or break a week. Get a huge game from the right guy, and a team can cruise. Have a starter lay an egg, though, and it can be game over.

With that in mind, we're going to conclude each edition of the B/R Guide to Dominating Fantasy Football with one player who will define the week to come, for better or worse. The Boom (or Bust) of the Week.

In Week 11, it's a "Boom" and a guy on a team dealing with a big wide receiver injury of their own.

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (at PIT) (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,100)

As the Bengals return to action following the bye, they do so without the services of Ja'Marr Chase, who has been out of action since Week 7 with a hip injury. That injury elevates Tee Higgins into the role of No. 1 wide receiver for the Bengals, but to date his numbers haven't reflected that new status.

Mind you, Higgins has logged at least 13 PPR points in each of his last three games. The problem is that he also hasn't scored 15 PPR points in any of those contests, so while the floor has been there, the ceiling has not.

That's going to change Sunday against the Steelers. The week off should have afforded Higgins an opportunity to get right after battling an ankle injury. The Steelers have been one of the best fantasy matchups for wide receivers in 2022. And there's even something of a revenge factor here—when these teams met in Week 1, Higgins was knocked out of the game with a concussion.

Higgins eclipses the 100-yard mark in Week 11. Higgins finds the end zone in Week 11. Higgins finishes well inside the top-10 fantasy receivers in Week 11.

And Higgins makes fantasy managers very happy in Week 11.

   

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