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Grading Every 2022 NBA Draft Lottery Pick's Rookie Season So Far

Jonathan Wasserman

Most of the NBA teams that drafted in the 2022 lottery should be feeling confident in their scouting process and decisions.

The top picks have performed well, including two who are producing at levels on par with established veteran stars.

Even a few of the perceived projects have delivered promising glimpses in limited minutes.

Still, a couple of rookies who were thought to be more NBA-ready have struggled and fallen out of their rotations.

Grades given are relative to expectation, so the first five picks were held to higher standards compared to those who went Nos. 7-14.

Note: No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren not included because of his season-ending foot injury.

Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic PF

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Notable stats (15 games): 34.8 minutes, 22.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists. 0.7 blocks, 45.8 FG%, 27.3 3PT%

The only NBA power forwards or centers outscoring Paolo Banchero entering December: Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis.

Better spacing and a 250-pound frame have helped the No. 1 pick early. He's having an easier time gaining a step on bigs in face-up situations, and he's converting 58.7 percent of his shots within 10 feet, finishing over or through defenders in the paint.

Banchero's off-the-dribble shooting and passing at Duke have also carried over, with the 6'10" forward making 2.1 pull-ups per game and averaging 3.6 assists. Receiving 6.3 pick-and-roll ball-handling possessions per game—the most of any NBA big—he's emerged as an immediate threat to initiate offense from the perimeter with his self-creation, shot-making and playmaking.

He struggled early on catch-and-shoot chances, a weakness on his predraft scouting report, but he's hit 57.1 percent of those attempts over Orlando's last four games.

The Magic seem like a strong fit for Banchero, who's been given the freedom to play to his strengths with offense running through him, both from the point of attack or post.

Grade: A

Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets PF

AP Photo/Rick Bowmer

Notable stats (20 games): 30.1 minutes, 11.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.0 blocks, 35.3 FG%, 34.4 3PT%

After a slow start, Jabari Smith Jr.'s signature strength has come alive, with the No. 3 pick entering December having made at least three three-pointers in five consecutive games.

Since he's making 2.2 threes per game on the season, it's not worth nitpicking a 34.4 percentage that keeps rising. Signs still point to Smith's evolution into one of the league's premier shot-making bigs.

On the flip side, among NBA players who've logged at least 500 minutes, only Killian Hayes and Royce O'Neale have a lower two-point percentage than 6'11" Smith (36.6 percent).

Blowing by defenders and finishing in traffic were issues at Auburn, where he followed Cam Reddish and Ziaire Williams as the only lottery picks 6'7" or taller to shoot under 45.0 percent inside the arc before their draft.

For the season, he's taken 125 threes and 93 two-pointers, a reflection of having more confidence in his jumper, limited explosiveness inside the arc and his role as a spot-up player (44.4 percent of possessions) within the Houston Rockets offense. With 75.3 percent of his field goals coming off zero to one dribble, Smith has relied heavily on catch-and-shoot chances and long pull-ups.

He has had some outstanding stretches and flashes defensively, even if he's had trouble avoiding fouls. Smith already looks like an impact defender with his ability to get in a stance, slide, anticipate and make plays on the ball.

Despite the inefficient start, it's still easy to picture a highly effective three-and-D big by the end of his rookie year.

Grade: B

Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings SF/PF

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Notable stats (18 games): 10.6 points, 28.6 minutes, 0.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 39.8 FG%, 31.7 3PT%

Despite a November slump, Keegan Murray has been a useful two-way role player for the 11-9 Sacramento Kings.

His shot hasn't fallen much since the rookie buried five three-pointers in a win over the Golden State Warriors eight games ago. And given his role in Sacramento's offense, poor shooting has made it tough for Murray to consistently score in double figures like he did in summer league (MVP) and October (17.4 points per game).

The eye test still shows a versatile, believable shot-maker whose mechanics and release have few moving parts. His easy adaptability has also been evident, with the Kings using the rookie as a spot-up player, off-screen weapon, post option and roll man.

The lack of creation and ball-handling skill have made Murray vulnerable to quiet games lately, especially in a lineup with veterans and a bench that includes bold guards Malik Monk, Davion Mitchell and Terence Davis. And compared to college, a lack of explosiveness has been more restrictive in the NBA, where he's had trouble finishing at the rim (57.1 percent) and in transition (5th percentile).

Low rebounding and assist rates highlight a player whose value revolves around low-usage scoring and defense. Murray has demonstrated obvious defensive IQ when it comes to anticipating and reading ball screens, and he's done an admirable job answering questions about how well he could slide his feet with ball-handlers away from the basket.

Grade: B

Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons SG

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Notable stats (19 games): 16.2 points, 31.7 minutes, 4.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 42.1 FG%, 31.8 3PT%

After an efficient first month that highlighted Jaden Ivey's skill set and adaptability for off-ball scoring, his upside has really popped in a lead-guard role since Cade Cunningham left the lineup because of a shin injury.

He's averaging 17.4 points and 4.9 assists in eight games without Cunningham, and the extra on-ball reps have given Ivey's athletic ability more opportunities to generate transition and playmaking chances.

They've also led to more missed shots and bad decisions, but the open-floor burst and change-of-pace blow-bys we saw at Purdue have carried over. Control issues and erratic shooting aside, Ivey continues to showcase translatable, star-caliber change of speed and direction for high-percentage paint finishes, plenty of shot-making skill and vision off the dribble.

At his floor, he's producing starter-level offense despite struggling with consistency on pull-ups and catch-and-shoot jumpers. Ivey has already hammered home his signature ability to lose defenders and finish with explosiveness, quick-dribble moves and leaping ability to elevate and hang into uncontested shots.

Grade: A-

Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers SG/SF

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Notable stats (21 games): 19.2 points, 28.0 minutes 1.5 assists, 43.4 FG%, 40.3 3PT%

The Indiana Pacers look like 2022 draft winners, with Bennedict Mathurin scoring at a level of volume and efficiency on par with recent No. 1 overall picks during their rookie seasons.

Averaging 19.2 points per game on 43.4 percent shooting, he looks in command while handling the ball, operating with a confident bounce and pacing in his dribbles as he picks his spots to rise up or hesitate into a blow-by.

Making 42.6 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes and 36.2 percent of his pull-up threes, the 6'6", 210-pound wing has shot better with the Pacers than he did at Arizona. He's complemented the perimeter shot-making by regularly balancing it with aggressive drives. An excellent finisher in college, Mathurin already looks relatively comfortable around the NBA rim, and he's top-15 in the NBA in free throws made and attempted.

Explosiveness and Indiana's pace have also helped Mathurin generate 5.3 points per game in transition, which ranks No. 14 in the NBA.

Mathurin does have more turnovers than assists and has defensive lapses, the latter being something that deserved a mention on the predraft scouting report. But the No. 6 pick's outstanding scoring execution has been highly convincing. The only NBA players to total at least 400 points in fewer minutes: Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Grade: A

Shaedon Sharpe, Portland Trail Blazers SG

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Notable stats (21 games): 8.2 points, 20.3 minutes, 48.3 FG%, 38.5 3PT%

For the season's first month, the Portland Trail Blazers rotation received a reliable source of scoring from Shaedon Sharpe, who didn't play in college or the majority of summer league.

Through 14 games, he was averaging 10.1 points in 21.0 minutes on 51.4 percent shooting from three. Wednesday's 16-point effort against the Los Angeles Lakers ended an inevitable slump that included 1-of-13 three-point shooting over six games.

For the season, Sharpe has still been an effective complementary scorer, shooting 46.9 percent off the catch and 64.7 percent at the rim.

His shot-making and bounce for finishing have immediately translated to perimeter scoring and easy baskets. Though he doesn't play starter's minutes, he grades in the 94th percentile out of spot-ups and the 86th percentile off cuts.

Sharpe has flashed the ability to separate with step-backs or rise into a pull-up, though his creation is mostly for perimeter scoring, not driving or playmaking. In 21 games, he's totaled 10 assists and 20 free-throw attempts.

Regardless, Sharpe has mostly thrived his role, providing efficient, low-usage scoring with his jumper and athleticism.

Grade: A-

Dyson Daniels, New Orleans Pelicans PG/SG

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Notable stats (13 games): 5.7 points, 17.5 minutes, 3.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.4 blocks, 53.8 FG%, 47.4 3PT%

Outside the New Orleans Pelicans' deep rotation to start the season, Dyson Daniels has suddenly logged five straight games of at least 20 minutes.

Wednesday's 14-point, nine-assist, eight-rebound effort highlighted the different ways he can impact games with his facilitating/passing and creation advantage as a 6'8" ball-handler.

While his IQ at both ends have popped early on quick outlets, setup passes, cuts and defensive positioning, he's shot well from outside, something scouts questioned if he could do early on.

Shooting 53.8 percent from the field, Daniels has taken what the defense gives up and capitalized on drives, his signature one-handed touch shots and off-ball movement. While he hasn't flashed much self-creation or scoring firepower, the Pelicans don't need it from the 19-year-old. He's looking like an ideal two-way connector fit to use between the lineup's stars.

Grade: A

Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs PF

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Notable stats (20 games): 8.1 points, 24.9 minutes, 4.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 47.3 FG%, 18.2 3PT%

With known scoring limitations, Jeremy Sochan has flashed his value in a versatility specialist role for the San Antonio Spurs.

Last Saturday's 13-point, nine-rebound, five-assist, four-steal line against the Los Angeles Lakers felt like one he could eventually achieve on a regular basis down the road.

Stats aside, defense was always going to be Sochan's signature, and so far, he's delivered with constant activity, foot speed and on/off-ball reads. He's already spent considerable time guarding different archetypes, with LeBron James, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, Jamal Murray and Damian Lillard among the players he's spent the most minutes matched up against.

Offensively, he's missed 36 of his first 44 threes and nearly half his free throws (11-of-20). But the Spurs have run some offense through him, as he's shown a comfort level facing up and facilitating or attacking his man when given space. Otherwise, he's been a relatively efficient off-ball finisher (60.5 percent inside 10 feet).

Grade: B+

Johnny Davis, Washington Wizards SG

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Notable stats (8 games): 1.1 points, 5.6 minutes, 0.6 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 27.3 FG%

After rough showings in summer league and preseason, Johnny Davis has started his NBA career outside the Washington Wizards' rotation.

Given his limited shooting range and reliance on hitting tough two-point jumpers at Wisconsin, an adjustment period will clearly be needed.

He's shot well through eight games in the G League (12-of-30 3PT). And at some point of the season, the pressure his offensive aggressiveness can put on defenses, plus his competitiveness at both ends, should help Davis earn some additional NBA minutes. But the No. 10 pick figures to spend his rookie season waiting behind Bradley Beal, Will Barton, Deni Avdija and Kyle Kuzma.

As long as the Wizards remain in the playoff hunt, it seems unlikely we'll be able to fairly evaluate Davis until 2023-24.

Grade: Incomplete

Ousmane Dieng, Oklahoma City Thunder SG/SF

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Notable stats (12 games): 3.8 points, 15.8 minutes, 2.8 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 38.0 FG%, 23.3 3PT%

It's always been about the long term for the 6'10" Ousmane Dieng, as his positional size and guard skills have created an enticing archetype and ceiling since he was 16 years old. A slow start and reduced role with the Oklahoma City Thunder weren't surprising.

Right now, flashes outweigh the inefficiency caused by inconsistent shooting and issues with physicality. The small sample size of made jumpers, plus sequences of ball-handing, driving finishes, live-dribble passes and defensive pressure continue to project visions of upside.

After spending time in the G League, he had some very encouraging performances in November, including his last one Wednesday night during a 10-point effort on 5-of-6 shooting against the San Antonio Spurs. Previously, he'd hit multiple threes in three of the six NBA games he played last month.

Grade: Incomplete

Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder SG/SF

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Notable stats (18 games): 10.7 points, 25.1 minutes, 2.6 assists, 52.4 FG%, 29.5 3PT%

An efficient rookie season for Jalen Williams peaked Wednesday night during a 27-point outburst against the San Antonio Spurs.

Aside from his terrific physical profile for a guard or wing, skill versatility was a primary selling point of the college junior entering the draft. And it's led to an easy transition for Williams, who's proved he can score or capitalize in different roles and situations.

He's been most effective in ball-screen offense (67th percentile), pull-up shooting (48.3 percent), lofting floaters and cutting (85th percentile), using his solid frame, length and patience/body control for finishing in the restricted area (71.7 percent FG).

Williams hasn't been efficient as a catch-and-shooter (30.2 percent), and he remains fairly limited as a self-creator for scoring and playmaking. But the rookie has quickly demonstrated a knack for capitalizing opportunistically within Oklahoma City's offense, rarely forcing bad shots or turning the ball over.

Grade: A-

Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons C

AP Photo/Doug McSchooler

Notable stats (20 games): 6.6 points, 22.1 minutes, 7.1 rebounds, 0.9 blocks, 58.3 FG%

More than half of Jalen Duren's field goals have been dunks (32). He's played the expected role of play-finisher and rim protector, jobs his special physical profile and athletic abilities have allowed him to excel in right away.

He's recorded 11 assists all season, and he's shooting 48.7 percent from the line, numbers that reflect his limited shooting skill, on-ball comfort level and role. Duren has flashed some post footwork and short-range touch, however, and considering he turned 19 years old in November, just to see the occasional tough move creates hope around his potential development as a scorer.

Still, Duren's early value to Detroit has focused on his catch radius for easy baskets, offensive rebounding and exciting defensive playmaking at the rim. Much of the 6'10", 250-pound big's production has been fueled by his ability to simply jump above and through interior defenders.

Offensive limitations make it tough to play Duren 30-plus minutes right now. But the importance of his finishing and shot blocking will rise as the Pistons' skill players develop and become more consistently dangerous.

Grade: B+

Ochai Agbaji, Utah Jazz SG/SF

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Notable stats (7 games): 2.9 points, 9.7 minutes, 1.4 rebounds, 42.1 FG%

A four-year college player coming off a national championship with Kansas, Ochai Agbaji was viewed as a plug-and-play shot-maker. Instead, he's been glued to a bench for a rebuilding team that didn't draft him.

Appearing in only seven six games for the Utah Jazz, Agbaji has had the difficult job of providing shooting off the bench without any ball-handling touches or guaranteed minutes to build rhythm and confidence.

Agbaji won't have margin for error when it comes to shooting, given his limitations in creation and the fact that Utah is winning with Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley and Lauri Markkanen at the wing positions. He'll have a chance to make an impact with streak shooting, which could eventually give him an edge over Talen Horton-Tucker in the rotation.

Otherwise, Agbaji's most likely path into the rotation will open up if Utah hits a wall that crushes its playoff hopes.

Grade: Incomplete

Stats via NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Bart Torvik unless otherwise noted.

   

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